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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I think this is the same surgery as Johan Santana at about same age. Johan did return after a year off. He pitched poorly and retired. Rich Harden tried to make a comeback with the Twins following surgery but did not make it back to the majors. Dallas Braden did not return to the major leagues. Chris Young did return and was an average starter by ERA the first year and better than average year the second year after return. There are teams that can afford to risk some of their payroll of Woodruff. Is it a risk the Twins should take? Will it be 2026 before he is fully back?
  2. jorgenswest
    I do wonder what their plans are for the 4 remaining spots on the 40. They could have protected a few more from the rule 5 draft.
  3. jorgenswest
    Trying to find a comp of a contender and landed in Michael Harris II. He played in High A at 20 and was in the majors by the end of May the next year. His hit tool was different but both bring a major league ready glove. He was called up early when Adam Duvall was struggling with an OPS in the 500s and less than star play in CF. Harris shows more contact and steals with a lower walk rate and ISO to an wRC+ of 114 in high A. Rodriguez has more power and walks with the increased strikeouts that go with that profile. His wRC+ was 145 last year and 196 the previous year. A Twins comp might be Kirby Puckett who had a major league ready glove and jumped up to the majors on May 8 in the season after A-Ball. Torii Hunter and Aaron Hicks also arrived young with a major league ready glove but their high A performance was not near a 145 wRC+. I am not sure it is a good idea but it isn’t a crazy one. Now that he is on the 40 Rodriguez is close. One difference between Rodriguez and the other recent Twin prospects is the major league ready glove part.
  4. jorgenswest
    I don’t think they need to give up a prospect. I think a parallel trade of players that have had chances in the majors without significant success will be sufficient. Moran doesn’t feel like an overpay nor does Alcala feel like too little. Larnach, Miranda, Gordon, Balazovic also fit as similarly aged players that have shown glimpses of their upside. The view of these players and their potential will really vary by team but one might fit the Astros. edit: Moran will miss 2024 to Tommy John surgery. The Twins have nontendered him and hope to sign him to a two year minor league free agent contract.
  5. jorgenswest
    I think the most likely player to be non-tendered is Farmer if they can’t make a trade prior to Friday. There are no great shortstop options in free agency but there are plenty of stop gap options and I think that is how Farmer would be viewed. Rosario, Kiner-Falefa, Anderson and Mondesi are younger options. Crawford, Andrus and Hernandez are other stop gap options. Mateo may be non-tendered and is likely available in a trade for a marginal prospect. If they don’t find a trade partner by the deadline, non-tender might be the best option. Farmer has been non-tendered previously. The Reds resigned him in free agency.
  6. jorgenswest
    I think they all have value that exceeds the projected salary making them an asset to the team or in trade. Tender them all.
  7. jorgenswest
    I am confident Polanco will be an adequate 3B with time to prepare in the spring. He had little preparation last year in a rehab. Julien may be best suited to 1B and needed there if Kirilloff isn’t ready or isn’t very good following the latest surgery. There is space for both Polanco and Julien. Acknowledging there is space, I would absolutely trade Polanco for starting pitching.
  8. jorgenswest
    If those are the only choices then I protect Gordon. Gordon has a career RAA of 0 at 2B, LF and SS. His CF has been 0 over 2022 and 2023. His 2023 small sample stat line at the plate with a BABIP in the 100s was very different than his expected stats based on his contact. I think his 2022 stat line is a better predictor. I would expect that Gordon will help more with his glove and his bat than Prato.
  9. jorgenswest
    His walk rate was lower than the league average of 11.8%. The automated zone made it very difficult to pitch.
  10. jorgenswest
    He has an option remaining. The clock isn’t approaching midnight until that option is exhausted.
  11. jorgenswest
    Of course stats are biased. Sports are particularly troublesome but because each event is collected under different conditions instead of a controlled environment. Understanding statistical bias and the root causes are at the heart of the study of statistics.
  12. jorgenswest
    As a mathematician I would somewhat disagree. Slash stats are cited often but need huge samples and arguments are made based on a season or partial season as if that is how the player will perform in the next season. I do believe the data teams have tell a better story. I also believe daily in-person eyes of a skilled and trained human are better than the stat line. As for me, my eyes are not trained and skilled and the data I have really can vary. I offer opinions with the knowledge that I have many blind spots both with the data and from what I have seen. I have to go into it with an open mind and consider the ideas here whether they are based on the insufficient data or the eye test. I think it is worth discussing.
  13. jorgenswest
    They already have Castro and Gordon whose projections are similar or better than the three free agents. Gordon’s posted a 0 RAA in CF in 2022 and Castro a -1 last year but that is similar to Hicks who still struggles against right handed pitching. The Twins would be best off pooling their free agent resources into one spot. If that is CF then they need to go bigger here. I would stick with these 3 and pool the dollars for a starting pitcher.
  14. jorgenswest
    Hate is a strong word. It should be used seldomly.
  15. jorgenswest
    Gordon also doesn’t strike out nearly as often. I am not sure that is a team goal though. The batting projections for Castro and Gordon next year are very. Over his career Gordon has a 0 RAA at 2B, LF and SS. That is exactly average. He is -3 RAA in CF. That -3 all came in his rookie season when he had not played CF in the minors. In his second season he was at 0. Castro over his career is essentially the same. He is -1 at the three outfield positions, -4 at SS, +1 at 3B and +3 at 2B. They both have played several positions at a near average RAA. These are both valuable and inexpensive players. Combined with Martin they give the Twins depth where they should consider trading Polanco and Farmer. Those dollars can be used for a starting pitcher. I would hold onto Gordon.
  16. jorgenswest
    One possibility is a buy low on Alek Manoah. The Cardinals may be interested but I think the Twins are a good fit. The Twins have the corner OF depth and 2B depth that will help the Blue Jays who are losing Merrifield, Chapman, Belt and Kiermaier. Davis Schneider will fill one of those spots. He was drafted as a 3B but has also played a lot of 2B and LF. It is hard to know where the Jays believe he fits best. The Twins could offer Polanco or Kepler or Larnach and maybe add a lower level prospect. They could offer Wallner and maybe seek a prospect in return. The Twins have the depth to make this work if they believe they can get Manoah on track.
  17. jorgenswest
    I appreciate the discussion. I am finding it hard to be passionate about whether the pay roll is 130 million or 160 million. My joy for the game of baseball is not correlated to the level of payroll. I think there is a lot more joy that comes when a kid you have been following over the years comes up and hits a walk off home run or makes his debut as a starter in Yankee stadium. It is that connection of following the careers of these players that keeps me a Twins fan 48 years after leaving Minnesota. I will be listening to or watching nearly every game no matter the payroll. I will look forward to opening day and the debuts during the season of the prospects. I also enjoy that back and forth in this site. One thing I won’t enjoy is when every thread evolves into the same discussion about payroll that so many are rigidly passionate about. I just don’t share the same passion.
  18. jorgenswest
    I appreciate they shed light on their plans. They could have kept it in house.
  19. jorgenswest
    I agree with depth. Are you at all concerned that they might stick with the Giolito plan even through a prolonged struggle? The depth may not matter if he keeps getting the ball.
  20. jorgenswest
    Hellman’s wRC+ was 122 in AAA and 115 in AA in 2022. That is good but significantly lower than Stevenson. Ben Rortvedt was at 128. Helman ranked 108th by wRC+ of AAA players with 100 or more PAs. Several will be available as minor league free agents or rule 5 pick ups. He is playing winter ball and hopefully he will tear it up there. Helman will be valuable in a Stevenson off the 40 type role. At this point, I don’t think they should count on him to hit at the major league level.
  21. jorgenswest
    I think an analysis should look at the starter group as a whole. The starter group as a whole put up about 14.3 WAR (BR). I am not sure how Varland’s starter contribution was split but it probably pretty close to 0 either negative or positive. Lopez and Ober were at 3 or better. Together, can they account for 7 of that WAR? Ryan had 1.2 WAR. He need to take a step for towards 3. Paddack’s best season as a starter was 2.9. Between these two can they get 5 WAR? Assuming 12 WAR from those 4, they need to acquire 2-2.5 WAR. I think it needs to come from outside the organization so that they have the depth of Varland, Woods-Richardson and Festa. Gray would fit that need. A one year deal for Ryu or Maeda could fill that hole. It could be accomplished in trade. Trade Polanco to the Blue Jays in a buy low deal for Manoah. They can’t count on replacing that 5.3 with one pitcher. They shouldn’t even count on Gray being able to repeat his 5.3. It will need to be a group effort with the 4 veteran starters taking a step forward and finding an addition that will give them the depth that they will need.
  22. jorgenswest
    They have very promising young talent. They had 5 starters 25 and under last year with a lot of promise in Bibee, McKenzie, Allen, Williams and Curry with Clase at the top of the bullpen. They have Daniel Espino returning sometime midseason and certainly a factor in 2025. They almost can afford to trade Bieber. He will bring in even more young talent, Several of their young 25 and under bats from last year will be adding power as they enter their primes and have seen a few years major league pitching. Easily to join them are Rocchio and Manzardo. Like the Rays, I would never dismiss this organization from putting together a competitive team.
  23. jorgenswest
    Varland, Steer, Headrick, Funderburk, Wade Jr., Moran Gipson-Long had a cup of coffee with Detroit this year and Legumina brought us Farmer.
  24. jorgenswest
    Lots of great suggestions. Love Provus on radio. Gelnar would be my choice for TV.
  25. jorgenswest
    On Rice University… I believe the roots of the reputation for pitchers and injuries starts with the 2004 draft. Rice had 3 pitchers drafted in the first 8 picks and all 3 suffered arm injuries early in their professional careers. Their manager, Wayne Graham, was also Canterino’s manager in 2 of his 3 seasons. There have been several other pitchers drafted in the first 50 picks in Graham’s era. Ken Baugh missed his second professional season due to injury. Jon Skaggs was injured after 1 professional start and then missed his second season. Neither made it to the majors. Matt Anderson was the first overall pick in 1997. He did suffer an injury in 2002. He tore a muscle in his arm pit and some connect it to the pregame octopus throwing promotion that he had participated in with another Detroit pitcher. He never pitched well again. It seems unlikely that Rice is to blame here. I don’t see injuries to Joe Savery, David Aardsma, Norm Charlton or Bryan Price early in their professional careers either. The Twins have drafted two other of his Rice pitchers. J.T. Chargois suffered injuries. Tyler Duffey was healthy. Both were relievers while at Rice. Pitcher injuries happen. It seems unlikely that the workload at Rice is the cause and I wouldn’t blame the Twins for drafting a good arm that happened to pitch for Rice. I do think they should avoid having their pitchers participate in octopus throwing promotions.
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