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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Floro gave up six singles. He wasn’t walking batters. He didn’t give up home runs. Two of the singles had an XBA in the 100s. Correa should have been given an error on the missed double play. There was another throw from Wallner offline that put runners in scoring position. Farmer could have come off the bag there also. As for Baldelli he sees Floro strike out batter three and the next two batters hit balls for singles with exit velocities in the 60s. Batter number six hits a double play soft liner to Correa that he gets every time except yesterday. I don’t see indicators in batters three through six that Floro was not effective. I will argue that Baldelli should not have had the infield in as early as he did that inning. The sixth inning was a team effort and the biggest burden of letting the game get away should be on Correa’s shoulders with an assist from Baldelli playing the infield in at that point.
  2. jorgenswest
    One of their top international signings is a catcher. He is years away but pretty equivalent to drafting a high school catcher.
  3. jorgenswest
    May 22, 1969 Baltimore’s starter right handed Jim Hardin was pulled in the first inning and replaced by lefty Marcelino Lopez. Cesar Tovar pinch hit for Graig Nettles in inning 3 to get the platoon advantage. They also pinch hit Mitterrand for Roseboro but Roseboro did bat twice. Pitchers were rarely pulled early so getting one at bat and then being pinch hit for was more rare at the time but it happened then. I suppose managers also needed to make sure to save bats to pinch hit for the pitcher but it still happened. I did not need to search very hard to find this. I know how both Martin and Weaver used the platoon. I remember how Nettles, Allison, Tovar early in the season, Uhlaender, Roseboro, Mitterwald were used. Here is another that year when Quilici was pulled after one at bat and pinch hit for by Uhlaender to gain the platoon advantage. Washington’s starter Moore only pitched two innings. edit: apologies for adding a reply after squirrel. Didn’t see it until submitted. I am out now.
  4. jorgenswest
    Take a look at the game logs for their teammate Graig Nettles in 1969. Billy Martin platooned him almost exclusively. You will see games where he was pulled after 1 AB and games where he came in pretty early with a change in a pitcher. Tovar was off to a slow start that year so he platooned for a while with Nettles at 3B. He also platooned with Allison. I have no doubt that if Martin or Earl Weaver were managing today they would pinch hit early after the opener was taken out.
  5. jorgenswest
    Looking a little further ahead… The juggling of Keuchel and the rotation with the off days has Maeda, Lopez and Gray lined up for the Cleveland series. In the second Cleveland series it should be Lopez, Gray and maybe Ryan. Well done! Last September heading into an important series against Cleveland where they could have retaken first place they had Bundy, Archer and Winder lined up against Bieber, McKenzie and Quantrill. They lost all three. If that didn’t knock them out for good they were lined up poorly for the next Cleveland series also and lost the first three. In eight important September games against Cleveland they lost the first 6 and were 7 out before Ryan and Gray had a chance. The rotation will be weaker against the Rangers this year but the Rangers will also see less of Lopez and Gray before the playoffs.
  6. jorgenswest
    Other teams use this strategy of starting a bench player like Luplow against an opener and then pinch hitting once the opener leaves. Another option is to start Gallo a bat him at the bottom thinking that the opener will be out of the game by the time that spot comes up.
  7. jorgenswest
    It would be fun if they could somehow go back to the old video and superimpose the strike zone box. I know there would be challenges knowing when the ball was at the plate but I would enjoy seeing pitchers like Glavine and Spahn work the strike zone and umpire.
  8. jorgenswest
    I wonder how much you would pay for Farmer’s third year arb at 33. I looked at last year’s arb 3 players and really couldn’t find a comp because most similar players were not tendered an offer. For example Luke Voit had a close second year arb salary (5.45 million) with a season of 0.2 fWAR. He was projected by MLBTR for 8.2 million. Farmer starts this year higher at 5.85 and has 0.8 fWAR. Would that project him for 8.6 million or more? Another comp is Urshela. Urshela was at 6.55 and projected at 9.2. He asked for 10 and lost getting 8.4 instead. He probably gets low 9s if he asks for that amount. The Twins did tender a deal for Urshela but likely had a trade in place to give control to the Angels. Urshela was going into his age 31 season and had a better arb 2 season. I don’t think they find a similar trade partner for Farmer. I think Polanco has for more upside for what is likely less than 2 million dollars more in comparison. That amount is small and not going to impact the roster and budget. If they pay Farmer that arb award they won’t be releasing him and he likely will decline further at age 33. In my mind the choice is Polanco or neither and I am leaning Polanco. If neither they could try to pick up someone in the 2.5 million range that would hopefully be a salary they would be willing to cut loose. Solano was in that range this year. Farmer may not find offers much better as a free agent.
  9. jorgenswest
    He did seem to have a lot of movement that made it difficult for hitters. He threw a low 90s cutter, slider and sometimes a slow change off of his cutter. He appears to have movement that is hard to teach and also hard to command. Would you keep him on the 40 man into next season? I would use his second option and keep him on the 40 man roster for his age 23 season next year.
  10. jorgenswest
    Not at all my perception.
  11. jorgenswest
    Keuchel’s command was spot on today and he had the skill to really take advantage of this umpire’s strike zone. Fun to watch.
  12. jorgenswest
    I don’t care about ranks at all but I haven’t given up hope that Headrick will be a useful left handed arm in the bullpen. I wouldn’t remove him from the 40. I will add that teams in the IL average 5.58 runs per game this year. That run context distorts our perception of stats from both batters and hitters.
  13. jorgenswest
    I think he is a much better hitter and the combo of he and the call up are a better pairing than the decline of Farmer on the roster all year. The difference in their salaries will be so small it won’t impact the roster. The difference between either and a first year player is significant and if money matters I go with neither. I get that you would take Farmer on the roster and acknowledge the likeliness that he is likely be and provide better defense.
  14. jorgenswest
    Am I understanding correctly that you would take Farmer and his third year arb. He is at 5.85 million so he will probably be around 8 million next year? I would keep Polanco. We can both go to Fangraphs and find numbers to support out thoughts. I’m fact defense is like the varied WARs and a different metric will lead to a different ranking between Polanco and Julien. Until any of the metrics have a higher year to year correlation I think they are only valuable in three year chunks. I will leave with my Fangraphs take. I like statcast batting numbers because they are based on data that stabilizes reasonably quickly. Polanco is third on the team in xSLG behind Wallner and Kepler and fourth in xwOBA (Solano is third). Wallner is a smaller sample but has a good lead. Julien is decimal points behind in xwOBA and essentially tied for fourth. Kyle Farmer is 13th and 12th. I think the difference in their bats is more significant than the difference in their gloves. My other take is if they keep either Farmer or Polanco to opening day their salaries will keep them on the roster all season. This would be an argument to let both go and my second choice. Polanco will get injured and they will need to bring someone up like Lee or Prato or Severino. That doesn’t worry me. Farmer is more likely to stay healthy and will likely be on the 26 man most of the year. I would strongly prefer Polanco back filled by the depth they have rather than a healthy Farmer at 33 on the roster all season.
  15. jorgenswest
    He had a month between major league games. I am sure he would have benefitted from more time to work on second base but the Twins didn’t have that luxury. I am sure he put that time to use and is better for it now with that hard work ethic that Baldelli has referenced in his postgame. I really value that growth and development time and for players like Julien that list 2020 it is critical.
  16. jorgenswest
    I see it different. They both had work to do. Julien with the glove and Wallner with the strike outs. The AAA schedule with less travel and the weekly routine makes it much easier to do that work. The development time in AAA is critical.
  17. jorgenswest
    Farmer is 33. He will decline more with glove and bat. I think the risk is he will be healthy, unproductive and on the roster. His third year arb salary will likely be around 8 million and they won’t want to release him at that salary. I prefer the injury risk with Polanco where they can fill that roster spot when he is out.they have the depth.
  18. jorgenswest
    They need them all. It is OK to have good bats on the bench.
  19. jorgenswest
    I would bring him back and not take Farmer to his third year of arbitration. Farmer is at 5.85 million now and that will increase so the difference in salary between Polanco and Farmer isn’t significant. Farmer may be healthier but has no upside and is 33. To me the choice is to keep one of the two veterans or let go of both. I am keeping Polanco. They won’t have 12 position players better than him. The team will be better with him.
  20. jorgenswest
    Gallo already has a streaky power bat with much better defense. I don’t think that would be a wise switch. Kirilloff will be back.
  21. jorgenswest
    They are skipping the Friday start. Lopez and Gray can each start with an extra day of rest so that fifth starter is not needed. Keuchel is listed for Sunday. Ober could start that day on his normal rest but he may need the extra day more than the others. Varland pitched yesterday so he isn’t an option. A bullpen day is an option for Sunday if they get good starts out of Lopez and Gray. The last Keuchel start turned out to be a bullpen day with a big deficit. They need good starts from Gray and Lopez resting then pen and a really quick hook for Keuchel.
  22. jorgenswest
    As for the hitters I think the run scoring environment in St. Paul gives us a distorted perception of their performance. Chris Williams has a wRC+ of 120. That isn’t special and rather ordinary for a 1B. You mentioned Bryson Stott. His wRC+ was 152 when called up. His OPS at other levels/seasons were 146, 169, 130 and 137. That is a pretty sustained high level relative to league. Jeremy Peña is similar but not quite as strong at 138, 146 and 126 (actually higher when combined with partial same season of 152). The Twins have two players that approach those sustained numbers in Julien and Wallner. They are up already. I don’t see anyone else approaching the readiness of Bryson Stott or Jeremy Peña with sustained performance.
  23. jorgenswest
    It appeared from watching TV that Jax was not locating the ball close to where it was called. There were also just too many wasted uncompetitive pitches after he got ahead in the count. Mechanics? Injury? I suspect he will figure it out.
  24. jorgenswest
    I think comparing an organization’s 25 and under talent is more valuable than prospect lists. I would suggest that the work would be done in tiers instead of ranking. I do think ranking is helpful in getting clicks and conversation about 1v2 or 9v10 but those conversations don’t have much value particularly when looking within one organization itself where the sum of the pieces is what matters. That top tier in the central might include Luis Robert and Bobby Witt. Would Duran or Clase also be included. The next tier might include players like Greene, Bibee, Lewis, Julien and others who have shown tier 1 promise but not sustained it yet. The conversation now turns to comparing the organizations in the central and discourse about individuals and whether they have met a bar for a tier. It would also give a picture of the health of the organization as cost controlled players are extremely valuable to the teams in the central.
  25. jorgenswest
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