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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Like the look at Martinez. Little risk but no positional flexibility. Suarez is a lot of strike outs and only a 3B/DH. I am not confident he will be better fit the rest of the way than the options they have in house.
  2. jorgenswest
    I still think outfield and possibly 1B will be the best supply for a top of the line up left handed bat. As long as Clemens and Castro are hitting an additional outfielder will not stop them from getting playing time.
  3. jorgenswest
    I looked at last year’s team and they weren’t nearly as clean. I found three over 70% in Jax at 75% followed by Alcala(72%) and then Duran(71%). I wondered about Alcala and his propensity this year to give up crooked numbers. The Twins team numbers pitching overall have virtually the same OPS against whether there are runners on or not. That isn’t true about Alcala over his career and particularly in the last few years. His OPS against with the bases empty is much lower than his OPS against with runners on base. I am not sure if it is meaningful. Could it mean that he has poorer command either shown by walks or hard hit balls when pitching from the stretch?
  4. jorgenswest
    I am willing to give up a lot in prospect capital. Alternatively I would do little. Either go big and try to be a contender or stay with the current roster and hope to get in as a wild card. They have some critical elements for a successful playoff with their pitchers. They need another top of the line up bat. That won’t be cheap.
  5. jorgenswest
    Agree on the left handed bat. A left handed outfield bat works for me too. It is easier to find left handed bats in the outfield (or 1B) since they can throw left handed at those positions. I have no concerns at all if they have three good left handed bats in the outfield in addition to Buxton. It wasn’t to long ago that the starting outfield was Castro, Bader and McCusker followed soon by Kiersey, Clemens and Castro.
  6. jorgenswest
    I don’t see the need at third base and don’t think I would trade assets for a third baseman. I do see really poor bats thus far from Lewis and Miranda but the first two months of the season is not a great projector of the next two months. Besides Miranda and Lewis they have Castro, Lee, Clemens and Bride. I would frame the need is a bat for the middle of the line up regardless of position. That bat may come from within. I think the two positions that are the thinnest are catcher and outfield. If I prioritized where I would get the bat it would be outfield. Someone like Jaren Duran would really be helpful. There is plenty of space in the line up to use Buxton, Duran, Wallner and Larnach when they are all healthy.
  7. jorgenswest
    Years ago my son had a soccer coach from Tanzania that called a shut out by a goalie a clean sheet. I was thinking about that reading @Riverbrian’s comment in the Jorge Alcala topic. How often do our relievers enter the game do their job? A clean sheet. I will define a clean sheet as no runs scored whether their own or inherited or ghost. I went to baseball reference to count and below is the data. Varland 21/30 Duran 23/28 Jax 20/28 Sands 17/27 Topa 15/21 Alcala 14/20 Coulombe 18/19 Stewart 13/17 Funderburk 4/8 Clean sheets is a measure of opportunity like WPA. If Varland comes in with the bases loaded and no outs his opportunity for a clean sheet is pretty remote. Some sheets are easier to keep clean than others. Some relievers come in to put out fires more often. Some are asked to pitch across multiple innings more often. Some see the top of the line up more often. Some leave a big mess on those sheets more often than others. This reflects how often they have done their job acknowledging that not all jobs are the same. I am not sure what it means other than I appreciate how often the Twins relievers have come in and done their job this year.
  8. jorgenswest
    Wouldn’t it be on Sunday? If they pitch Festa today then I think we know it will be Woods Richardson on Sunday. They might also consider pitching Festa on Friday and giving an extra day rest to Paddack and Ryan.
  9. jorgenswest
    Alcala pitched well yesterday. It was his 14th (of 20) appearance where he has given up no runs while pitching at least an inning. I looked to his game log to see if there was any pattern to his appearances where he has given up multiple runs. None of those appearances were on the second end of a back to back or after long layoffs. One was game 2 and the others had one or two days off in between. If you look at the splits his 6+ days rest numbers look bad but that is his bad first appearance of the season in game 2 which is part of 6+ days rest data and shouldn’t be. If everyone is healthy I think he is the 8th man in the pen with Funderburk behind him. That is a tenuous position because when the bullpen gets overburdened they will call up reinforcements and he will be the next guy to go. Until that happens or they add a reliever from outside the organization I don’t think they have anyone that is a better option.
  10. jorgenswest
    I would stick with Alcala over any of the relief options in AAA. He was pretty effective in 2024and I think he has a better shot at matching that going forward than any of the other options.
  11. jorgenswest
    I wondered about adding Del Castillo in my reply but worried about his shoulder injury. Last year runners were already successful on 27 of 29 stolen base attempts before the injury. Do you think he will stick at catcher? I know you really pay attention to catchers . What do you think of Miguel Amaya from the Cubs? Unfortunately he is out with an oblique injury right now.
  12. jorgenswest
    It is early for a trade. I think they need him to continue this stretch through the all star break before teams are desperate enough to overpay. They should be listening though. I think injury is as likely as regression. Is there a catcher with some control that is ready to help in the major leagues this year? I suggested the Cubs Miguel Amaya in @Trov’s thread but he has an injured oblique now. I am not sure Dalton Rushing is as ready but he would be an overpay that I am looking for if the Dodgers are desperate. Are the Red Sox buyers? Are they ready to make room for Roman Anthony? Jaren Duran is having a bit of an off year and has a reasonable team option for next year. He is rumored in trade talks and would fit the Twins line up. I think they need another true lefty and their is space for all three left handed hitting outfielders and Buxton if they are all healthy, I am sure the response is going to be no way they get that return but that is the point. Starting pitching is always a premium. No teams have enough. For a contender to move on from a starting pitcher they really need to be blown away. The Twins should be listening.
  13. jorgenswest
    Cubs need starting pitching. They have a back up catcher in Miguel Amaya that would help this year. Both have provided their teams 0.9 WAR this year. Starting pitching is a premium but control of Amaya makes him a longer term value. Pitching is expensive. My price would be someone ready to help this year on the offensive side that has control beyond this year. I have no interest in prospects and I am not motivated to trade Paddack. I would listen to an offer like Amaya. Too much to pay? Fine. Keep Paddack.
  14. jorgenswest
    While Topa’s ERA is low there are signs of decline from his one outlier successful season of 2023. His sample is small so the ERA estimators are of little value and all over the map. Looking at data that stabilizes early, his average velocity has dropped 2 mph. The sinker his most effective pitch of 2023 is no longer a plus. His strike out rate dropped from 21.9% to 15.5%. His walk rate is up from 6.5% to 8.3%. His swing and miss has dropped from 8.4% to 5.9%. His groundball rate has dropped from 56.7% to 43.5%. It shouldn’t be surprising given his age and injury history. I think it is more likely that we will see the reemergence of the 2024 Alcala than Topa will return to his 2023 form. Most likely neither is returning to their previous peaks but I would give the both a longer run.
  15. jorgenswest
    Thanks. I have done screenshots from video where the broadcast box is different from the game zone box. I am not sure that is the case for yesterday’s game. It is possible that the TV box was different. I also agree that the umpire was excellent and when I am watching in game cast or TV I would go with the umpire unless at least half the ball is in the zone when questioning his call of a ball. Similarly if I question a strike there would need to be a half ball of space between the ball and the strike zone.
  16. jorgenswest
    Good point. Wallner also struggled with errors in trying to get right in AAA last year. His fielding percentage in that stint last year is the same as Julien’s in AAA though playing a position that usually has fewer errors.
  17. jorgenswest
    Maybe the additional experience of the independent leagues makes a better chance of success than an NDFA. They can always replace any of these Independent leagues is signees with an NDFA later in the season. I am glad the Twins have scouts looking at these players.
  18. jorgenswest
    Patience. The same article could have been written about Matt Wallner a year ago at this time. After 146 PAs he has a triple slash of 183/274/349 and then things turned around. Julien is at 85 PAs and Miranda is at 65 PAs. Wallner returned after 297 PAs. Let’s reserve judgment and see what Gardenhire’s staff can do given a long stretch with Miranda and Julien.
  19. jorgenswest
    I didn’t find myself alarmed at his response to playing second base last year. In the minors he moved between shortstop, centerfield and third base. He had 5 innings of second base in 2019. It seemed reasonable to me that he would be uncomfortable being thrown into a position at the major league level that he hasn’t really ever played. That’s the kind of move you do in spring trading or you make sure players have experience in the positions they might be needed while in the minors. If they foresee a fit for him at first base or second base that is a conversation they should have with him as they enter this winter. Playing 2B or 1B at the major league level isn’t trivial. The foot work will be different than he has experienced at both positions. The instincts at first base about going to his right will be very different.
  20. jorgenswest
    In his 37 PAs since May 17 he has an average exit velocity of 94.0, launch angle of 21, hard hit percentage of 52 for an XBA of .278 and real batting average of .118. His K/BB rates are 14/8. In the 33 PAs prior to May 17 he had an average exit velocity of 85.3, launch angle of 10, hard hit percentage of 31 for an xBA of .179 and a real batting average of .161. His K/BB rates were 15/6. In Tampa this week his average exit velocity for his at bats was 100.3 for an xBA of .407. He had no hits. Progress?
  21. jorgenswest
    He played his first full 9 inning game in the field on Tuesday. He played a full game at DH on Wednesday.. They will probably see how he recovers this morning after the two back to back full games. I don’t know if they want to see back to back games in right field before he returns. That might be the next step in the progression or maybe he will return this weekend.
  22. jorgenswest
    Why not be excited? The realistic easy take for most minor leaguers is that they won’t make it. For me it is part of the fun to catch glimpses of their strengths and be optimistic that they might just beat the odds and become a major leaguer. This is the first stretch that Sabato has given us to be optimistic. Go ahead and be excited.
  23. jorgenswest
    Yes. I would imagine followers of other teams have the same worry. Is there a reason the Twins should be more worried? I guess they have been very healthy in the bullpen compared to most so maybe the injuries are coming.
  24. jorgenswest
    Bride isn’t that useful on the bench. He isn’t going to pinch run. His doesn’t have plus defense at a key position. He is the emergency catcher. If he doesn’t help on the bench he needs to have a platoon role to be any help. Should he start against left handed pitching? I would prefer Buxton, Hader, Wallner and Larnach so one of them is DH. Castro isn’t even in that lineup. If Vazquez is catching then Jeffers needs to be DH and I will rest Larnach or Wallner. That leaves him on the bench with Clemens, Castro and Larnach/Vazquez. How does he get in the game? After two catchers are injured? If they need a third catcher then I would go with Gasper. He is the more experienced catcher and probably has a better chance of pinch hitting. I don’t foresee Kiersey in a platoon role either. I can foresee him pinch running and playing outfield late in the game as a defensive replacement.
  25. jorgenswest
    One significant change did impact line up construction in the mid 70s. The DH meant that the number 9 hitter was no longer the pitcher. There was a much better chance the the number 1 and 2 hitters would see a runner on base instead of an extra out. It allowed teams to rethink line up construction. The Harvey’s Wallbangers Brewers in 1982 had the “perfect” number 2 hitter in Charlie Moore and Jim Gantner. They could bunt, put the ball in play and do all of the things of a Ron Gardenhire number 2 hitter. They started the year with Moore batting second but broke tradition by putting major league’s best hitter in that spot in Robin Yount. A manager change from Bob Rodger’s to Harvey Kuehl made permanent that change. Their lead off hitter not only had a high OBP but contributed also contributed power and speed in Paul Molitor. The Brewers put their two batters most likely to get on base in spots 1 and 2. Moore batted eighth and Gantner batted ninth. Baseball is a copycat sport and some teams took notice including two AL champions shortly after the Brewers season. The 1984 Tigers had their two high OBP hitters batting 1 and 2 in Whitaker and Trammell. In 1983 the Tigers most frequent number 2 hitter was Darrell Evans. The 1986 Red Sox started the season leading off with Dwight Evans followed by Wade Boggs. They had three stolen bases between them but their combined OBP was over .400. The did move Boggs to lead off and used Marty Barrett to bat second by the end of the season. Barrett had an OBP of .353 as opposed to Evans .376 and could be viewed as a traditional number 2 hitter (with the addition of a high OBP) but Boggs wasn’t anything like the traditional number 1 with 0 stolen bases. If there ever was a traditional lineup it was broken at least 40 years ago. Maybe the DH helped to break that tradition.
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