jorgenswest

Clemens was a cash pick up. He has been very helpful. How many of his home runs have been critical this year? He is third among Twins positional players in WPA though he joined the team during the season.

Keaschall’s best fit positionally might be first base. Hopefully they will get him back in the outfield next spring. He could fit at a corner there also. He will need to hit well for any of those spots.

Pitching depth moves are necessary. I appreciate how players like Noah Davis continue to fight to get their shot in the big leagues. Every once in a while they shine in that short window and stick. Thanks for the article @Cody Christie. I probably wouldn’t have noticed him otherwise. I learned my lesson writing off the addition Carl Willis years ago based on his past performance. Good luck to Noah.

France had the same grade 60 raw power. In his last minor league year he was pulling the ball in AAA 43.4% of the time. He was over 40% throughout the minors. Long is 35.5% this year after 33% last year. France pre2019 - Long pre2025 FV 40 - 40 Hit 45/50- 30/40 Game Power 50/55 - 30/55 Raw Power 60/60 - 60/60 Speed 30/30 - 40/40 Field 40/40 - 30/40 France was going into his 24 year old season and put up an OPS of 1.247 after this report. It was BABIP fueled. Long is 23 going into this season where he has put up a BABIP aided 1.115 after his report. Major league pitching requires adjustments. France needed to go the opposite way to make use of his contact skills. He did not need to in the minors. I should add that all along I have been ready to trade Coulombe for Long if they are sellers. I don’t want add any prospects to the deal though. I think they have something similar in Miranda who also rides the roller coaster of BABIP.

I agree. It was a way of pointing out I wouldn’t offer them more than Coulombe other than to offer the player that comps to long on the other end of his career. I certainly am not adding a prospect to get Long. His positional inflexibility makes him an option as a starter or a player that shuttles between AAA and the majors. I don’t think he is a starter in a playoff team. He is Ty France. The story of France’s career is BABIP. The Padres traded him in 2020 his best season by OPS and a season with a BABIP of .390. He was all star in 2022. A season in which he had a BABIP of .340 in the first half and .238 in the second half. He has been the same ball in play hitter all of these years. Long looks to be the same player. He has a good wRC+ of .136 but how much of that is driven by his BABIP of .378? Miranda is also a ball in play reliant on BABIP player. I don’t think Ty France has played on a playoff team. It is hard to picture Jonathon Long as the first baseman on a playoff team. How much do they need to give up for that player? I think a few months and a playoff series of Coulombe is more than sufficient.

I think the key here is the two years additional service time. How often have the Guardians been on the fringe of the playoffs and traded a player with two additional years of service time? Is the sweet spot for return vs control remaining one extra year? Ryan Jeffers is in that sweet spot. Conversation about Ryan, Duran and Jax seem a year premature.

Good point. Chaparro’s future value by Fangraphs was 35+. 40 is a bench player. 35 is emergency call up.

Would a comp be Ty France? France’s power in the minors was better with his partial season in AAA with 27 home runs and a 1.247 OPS before being called up but before that had moderate power that might not translate to the majors well. Perhaps Ty France lite when comparing their minor league numbers. France also played 3B and 2B. Ty France was moved at the Covid season deadline for Austin Nola when he was a .300 hitting catcher. Andres Munoz and two others also went to Seattle. I think I would make the trade Coulombe if the Twins are sellers. If the Cubs need more I would add Ty France to the deal.

I have been thinking about this for a while. Is there a way we can measure how well they have done? My bias is I am really familiar with the Twins failures and not so familiar with the failures of other teams. It seems like the Twins fail much more than they should. What data would shed light on how well they raise their young? Fangraphs FV data goes back a while. I wonder if that is the place to start.

France has skill with the bat. He puts the ball in play more than most. He can hit the ball to the opposite field but not so much so that they shade him that way in the infield. This combination of skills helps with runners on base and runners in scoring position which can help in boosting clutch numbers a little. Does he turn into a different hitter in clutch situations? No. His skill set is just a little more helpful in those situations. I think there are some similarities to Donovan Solano where he can be good off the bench and in certain match ups but exposed playing every day.

I am not sure these recent deadline trade are helpful to me. These two elements would be helpful. Looking at Duran and Jax, what comps do they have for relievers traded with two additional years of control? How did the prospects in return perform for their new team? This might take two studies that go back 6-10 years. We need to go back far enough to see what the prospects contributed while their new team had control. What should we expect from a 45 FV as compared to a 55? How does the risk associated with the future value play in? What was the return for relievers with 3 years of control (including current) in terms of future value and risk? What was the return for a solid lefty on an expiring contract? We need to stop using prospect rankings. There is nothing to learn from them. You can’t compare season to season or organization to organization. You can’t compare winter to midsession update. The midseason update is always skewed by prospects graduating out pushing others artificially higher in the list at the deadline. Rankings are useless in trying to learn from previous deals.

Teams need 3 starters in the playoffs and a 4th at times depending on how quickly they win a series. It doesn’t matter what arbitrary number between 1 and 3 someone one the outside gives them. Just for context Joe Ryan is 18th by fWAR at the break. Looking at the four teams that might have that elite prospect match. The Dodgers have no one above him and one in the top 30. The Red Sox have Crochet above him and no one else in the top 30. The Tigers have Skubal above him and no one else in the top 30. The Phillies have Wheeler, Sanchez and Luzardo above him. Ryan would be a significant playoff rotation upgrade for at least three of these teams.

Boston is a great match and great point about their desperation. I would hold out for Anthony over Mayer though. If the Dodgers are in the talks Boston is going to have to outbid them and Rushing. The Twins would have to make them at least believe the Dodgers are pursuing Ryan.

Reading comments and I agree that it would really unwise to trade Ryan. Pitching is critical in the playoffs. In order to get three postseasons of Ryan or Duran I would want a 60 and a low risk 50/higher risk 55. I want two players with a projection to be an above average major leaguer if I am trading three years of key playoff pieces. The likelihood is at least one will not meet their projection. There aren’t very many 60s according to Fangraphs but the Dodgers have one in Rushing. I need another significant prospect with him. I think Boston, Philadelphia, Detroit and Milwaukee also might have the elite prospect talent to make the deal.

Doesn’t Duran have the least service time among the three (Duran, Jax and Ryan)? I think they have this year plus two more years of control of all three. That is three shots at the playoffs with them where pitching is so critical.

Are there parallels of a potential Ryan deal and the Berrios deal? I think the Berrios deal worked out in the Twins favor but a Ryan deal would require more in return.

The Twins traded a year of control in the Berrios deal. Some are speculating his trading Ryan and his two additional years of control. What would it take for that deal to work out? The Twins traded Berrios with the current and next season of control. In those two seasons he gave the Blue Jays 1.5 WAR and -0.6 WAR. Key elements to the deal the Twins were clearly out of the playoffs and gave up the one extra year of control with a shot at the playoffs. they acquired two well regarded prospects. Martin had a future value of 50 and Woods Richardson a future value of 45. they replaced Berrios’ salary with Sonny Gray. Their 2022 salary was virtually the same but the Twins also had an additional season of control in 2023. Lopez salary slotted in to that top spot in 2024. The Twins received a comp pick for Gray and used it for Kyle DeBarge. Woods Richardson projected as a back end starter at an FV of 45 has fulfilled that projection thus far. He may outperform that projection if he approaches an average starter. Martin has not yet fulfilled his projection of an average regular. Overall the Twins maintained that salary slot from Berrios to Gray to an extended Lopez. Had they extended Berrios they probably would not trade for Gray or choose to extend Lopez. The cost for that slot that Lopez now fills was a season of Berrios (replaced by Gray) and Chase Petty a 50 FV prospect. Would they be better off today with an extended Berrios and Chase Petty or an extended Lopez, Woods Richardson, Martin and DeBarge? I think they are better off with that trade. Matching up the key elements the Twins would be trading 3 possible playoff seasons of Ryan as opposed to 1. If they play themselves out by the deadline it would be 2. to give up that extra season of control and possibly 3 seasons of playoffs I would hope they would get significantly more than players with an FV of 50 and 45. Ownership needs to be committed to replacing Ryan as they were with Berrios The elements don’t match up yet. They should wait a year and consider dealing Ryan if they are out of contention next year. At that time hopefully the uncertainty of ownership will be cleared up and there will be commitment to replacing Ryan prior to the 2027 season. Better yet let’s hope Ryan is leading them to the playoffs in 2027.

It is much easier to trade Ryan than acquire Ryan. I would keep him and his control and let the new ownership decide if they want to pay him. Also isn’t the pipeline a creation of bloggers and writers? Some seem to think it was a promise of Falvey. Every team will have trouble filling out a starting rotation throughout the season. Arguably the Twins started 7 deep. How many teams did better?

On Keirsey and apologies for taking this thread further away from Joe Ryan. They needed Keirsey's glove and arm yesterday. They needed it Wednesday. He made the running catch in the line out look routine though Swanson’s ball had a .350 xBA. Does Martin make that throw? Is he in the right position to make it? Does he take the correct route on Wednesday? Larnach and Wallner are part of the reason balls like that have a .350 xBA. Bad first steps and poor routes make catchable balls look out of reach. We know exactly why Keirsey is here. He does two things that are lacking. He plays a strong outfield on the corners. He can run better than most on the team. Is it worth a spot on the roster? That is debatable. Back to trading Joe. It is hard to know with the uncertainty of the ownership. Are new owners going to spend resources to try to win in their first few years? In that case I would keep their playoff caliber players in Ryan and Duran. I think I would at least keep them both through this season in hopes for new ownership and possibly new leadership. Give that team a chance to build these Twins. It is a lot easier to trade a Joe Ryan or Jhoan Duran than it is to acquire them.

Glad Keirsey was in right field last night. Great play off the wall and perfect throw. Also glad he made that running catch in right field to end the win on Wednesday. Keirsey made the play look pretty routine but that line out by Swanson had a .350 xBA. I thought Martin would be more useful this week. I don’t think he makes yesterday’s play. Wallner and Larnach are why balls like the one on Wednesday have a .350 xBA. Has Martin improved his first step and routes enough to make that play? Again it is a good thing I am not in charge.

False hope? Lame? I must have been enjoying the wrong game.

Rankings are not very helpful. They need context. A winter ranking of 50 or 57 across baseball is much different than a June ranking. It is the same for team rankings. Players graduate and the new class of draftees hasn’t arrived yet. It also needs the context of team. The Blue Jays system isn’t very strong. Isn’t it better to use future value? Nimmala has a FV of 50 by fangraphs. An average regular. He has gone from #87 to #50 in the MLB pipeline and that looks like he improved until you consider the graduates. You also have players hit the higher levels of the minors and struggle. How many Twins have we seen with a 50 in A ball that never became a significant major leaguer? Yesavage has a future value of number 4-5 starter. He just moved to AA and is encountering that struggle. How different is he than Marco Raya who has had essentially the same future value as he climbed the ladder? The Twins are offering three playoff seasons of a top reliever. If the Twins make the playoffs in any of those years Duran significantly improves their chance for success. These two wouldn’t in the next few years. So to answer the question “Could the Jays overpay?” I think the answer is no.

Does he remind you at all of Miranda as a minor leaguer? I am thinking about the Miranda who tore up AA and then AAA.

It is very encouraging to see Raya’s recent success. It is the quote above that jumped out at me though. Is Gasper a possibility as a catcher in the majors? I watched a previous good outing at catcher on MILB TV against the Mud Hens just prior to his injury. Morris and Baker pitched the bulk of that game. Gasper does not throw out runners well yet but maybe there are other aspects of catching where he is an asset. The confidence thing is important. Pitchers need to throw with conviction to be successful.

Let’s suppose this is an idea worth trying. It seems like the right time. They don’t have a viable fifth starter and they could be in selling mode. I don’t think it would be wise to send him to the minors to stretch out. Could they stretch him out in the majors? They don’t have a fifth starter. Start him in that slot and maybe he pushes towards 40 pitches. Make it a bullpen day. The next start he might get through 3 innings and around 45 pitches. It seems like this would give a better chance for the Twins to win those games than sending him out. Should they wait until next spring? I wouldn’t. Let’s find out if Jax is a playoff caliber starter as we close this season. If not return him to the relief role. I don’t know if it is worth considering. If the linked article hadn’t sourced Jayce Tingler in stating the Twins were considering it I would dismiss it as a possibility. Maybe the Twins considered and dismissed it this spring.