jorgenswest

I don’t think Bader is enough to get the catcher so wondering if adding Gonzalez to Bader would be enough. This kind of deal is not unusual. It might be uncommon at the deadline but there likely is a deal like this every year. Last year the Dodgers got a prospect added with Edman. Two years ago the Rays got a prospect with Sampson. The Padres got the Marlins #21 prospect with Garrett Cooper in that deal. Sometimes a team is insisting on a prospect in return and the other team relents by taking back a lesser prospect in the deal.

Do you think they would prefer Bader over Larnach? In that case it would have to be Bader plus something. I am wondering if Gonzalez would pry away that catcher prospect.

Is he a sell high opportunity? Pair him with Coulombe or Bader or Castro and try to get a legit catching prospect. One of them and Gonzalez to the Phillies for Tait?

Concur. Either way pick a lane. I am picking the other lane. In that other lane I think we need both and more next year. I don’t see a surplus in the bullpen. They need Coulombe back after trading him. They need two more arms after that.

Fair enough on Funderburk. The 59.2 innings with a 4.29 isn’t suggestive of future failure or success but he is 28. He will have an option remaining next year so an additional two month look might be helpful in whether to roster him next year. If they are sellers they will have more roster spots to fill than proven relievers for the bullpen. Do you prefer looking longer at the lefty Misiewizc over him?

They need to take the best offer on Bader. Maybe it will be Kemp. He is doing well enough with the Phillies right now and his expected stats are better than his actuals. I think they would likely offer someone that isn’t going to help the 2025 team. I don’t think they will be getting a significant near major league ready prospect. They will likely need to buy upside or get a player at a lower level. I would be looking for a buy low minor league starting pitcher that they might try to turn into a bullpen arm or catcher depth. In the Phillies system Eduardo Tait would be a dream. He is 18 and a 45 FV high risk prospect but the Twins didn’t add a catcher in the draft. They need a catcher next year but they also need another in the lower end of the system. I would try to get him and be willing to add to the deal to make it work.

True and I agree about your point on giving up. I am sure they won’t give up. Milwaukee kept Burnes for 5 of the 6 years of his service time. They gave themselves 5 years to have him on their playoff roster. They went to the playoffs that fifth year and then cashed in. It would be my argument that the Twins should not give up those three years and that the sweet spot is either next deadline or if they are contending that following offseason. Trading with this much control is really early. Are there many comps of all star level starters or closers traded with this level of control? I really feel that the Twins managed Berrios perfectly. They traded at the deadline in a season they clearly would not make the playoffs giving up that one additional year of control. They received prospects that have a Fangraphs FV of 55 and 50. Martin was the 55 and hasn’t fulfilled that promise of an everyday player. Woods Richardson looks like he might match that FV of a 4th starter. They then followed up the next winter by taking in the contract of Sonny Gray. They ended up with the two prospects and the starter that was at least as capable as Berrios. Brilliantly done. I wish Martin had worked out but more often than not players don’t reach that future value. There are so many reasons to wait a year. I can only think of two good reasons to seek a trade now and take the best they can get. One reason would be they foresee an injury to Duran. The other is someone blows them away with a deal that Baseball Trade Value says won’t work. I need one of the top 10 prospects in baseball plus more to make this deal. The Dodgers can make that kind of deal. If someone doesn’t really blow them away for an A+ deal then they need to wait. Let the new owner decide next deadline which direction they want to take this franchise. If no new owner by then at least they will have given themselves one more year to contend with an elite closer.

Sometimes the stuff is so good that it is really hard to put the ball in play. That results in longer counts with more strikeouts and walks. As he sees more advanced hitters the increase in balls in play will bring both rates down and the walk rate may be acceptable.

The premise of the article is “If…” There must be another place for the discussion about “Should…” If the Twins are buyers I think they need pitching help. The bullpen is healthy and has holes. They need another good bullpen arm minimally unless we think Paddack can take that spot when Ober returns. I would look for two bullpen arms to replace Topa and Misiewicz. I would not look for a bat unless that bat is a top third of the order bat. It is really the upside of Lewis, Correa and Wallner that they need to show up. They need Keaschall to pick up where he left off. They have some depth in the minors that they can call on. The likelihood that they will get offensive help internally is probably similar to the likelihood that they would get help from the players listed above.

Kemp seems a reasonable shot. I don’t see super utility though. Castro has a lot of innings at each of 6 positions in his career and plays more than passable defense at each. That isn’t Kemp. Kemp seems more like a right handed Clemens in his defensive flexibility.

For Duran I would want Rushing or Sasaki. They would need to add Edgardo Rodriguez or River Ryan to the Rushing deal. They need a pretty sure thing for Duran and those are the only two pretty sure solid major leaguers. For Jax they can start with Ferris. He will probably be a reliever. They would need to add Ryan or Rodriguez to that deal also. If they aren’t interested I would wait a year and trade them the next deadline.

Our bar for juicy is likely different. I would take a medium/low risk FV 55 paired with a medium/low FV50. Ethan Salas and Leo De Vries might be on the high risk side but they are a 55 and 50 and catchers are in short supply.

Agree on Rushing but it is really hard to find a catcher. The downside of a major leaguer is you don’t get the 6 years of service time.

Yes. You can add Anthony and Sasaki to the list.

Fair enough. I am not arguing that teams are never happy. I think it is hard. I think it is better to look at a group of those considered to be the top and then see how many are helping. It gives a better idea of the likelihood of success. Here are MLB’s top 10 traded prospects from 2023. Luisangel Acuna Drew Gilbert Kyle Manzardo Edgar Quero Jake Eder Ryan Clifford Nick Nastrini Marco Vargas Hao-Yu Lee Tekoah Roby This group is two years out so it matches the control of Ryan or Duran. Look at the 10 or go look at the entire list of 40 in the link. How many of these players have positively impacted their new team’s fortunes two years out? I want the new team owners to decide if they will rebuild. Wait a year before trading Ryan or Duran. I think the likelihood that the 2026 or 2027 team is better as a result of the trade is pretty small.

They are all the real Clemens. Slash stats need more than a full season of playoff control to stabilize so they can really vary by month. It is often meaningless and usually track BABIP. In June his BABIP was .100. His strikeout rate was lower and his walk rate was higher in June. That’s a good thing. Unfortunately the increase in balls in play did not lead to hits. His average exit velocity of 94.5 leads the Twins and matches Juan Soto who is 13th overall. Buxton is next at 92. Hard hit balls are the real Clemens.

Agree completely. Elite relievers are so valuable in the playoffs though. With the more frequent off days they can impact nearly every close game. The Twins need to be blown away to give away three years of playoff control. They have a completely healthy bullpen and still have holes this year. Chop off the top of the bullpen and those holes will be gaping for 2026. You only need to look at the 5 players in ESPN’s top tier of traded prospects for 2024 to know that getting a prospect not near the top 10 overall has a strong chance of failure. Players in the top 10 are rarely traded. All Star caliber starters or closers with that 3 years of playoff control are rarely traded. I am not sure if anyone has put up one comp to a Joe Ryan or Jhoan Duran that was traded at the deadline with their years of control. Do the Dodgers want to improve their chances to win this year? Ryan or Duran are going to help them repeat more than the injured Sasaki or Rushing. The same is probably true for 2026. Make them pay or hang up the phone. The Twins have the leverage. They are under their control until 2028.

Going by prospect numbers there are going to be about 10 players that have an FV of 60 or better. The next about 20 players will have an FV of 55. There will around 100 players after that with an FV of 50. A 60 FV has a future value as a #3 starter or plus position player. A 50 FV player has a future value of number 4 starter or average regular. If you are going to trade Ryan or Duran and all of their remaining control I sure hope they should a lot higher than the number 50 prospect. I need a top 10 overall prospect overall before I start listening. If the Red Sox want to start with Roman Anthony or the Dodgers want to start with Dalton Rushing I am listening but I need more. Otherwise I am waiting a year and giving myself a better chance to compete in 2026.

Does trading for prospects pay off? I looked back at last year’s deadline and checked on ESPN’s top tier of 5 prospects traded at the 2024 deadline. I think the progress of those five should be a cautionary tale for the Twins considering trading players beyond those with expiring contracts.

ESPN listed the top prospects moved at last year’s deadline. Let’s look at how they progressed with their new teams. Aiden Smith OF: Acquired by the Rays in the Randy Arozarena deal. At the time he had an FV of 50 while playing A Ball in Modesto. The most recent update has him with a FV of 40+ as he has advanced to high A. He has an uninspiring OPS of .716 and hasn’t made it to AA yet. Jake Bloss SP: Acquired by Toronto in the Yusei Kikuchi deal. He had a good first half in AA with a 1.61 ERA over 8 starts in 2024. The Jays moved him to AAA where he posted a 6.91 ERA in 8 starts following the deadline. After 23 innings in 2025 and a 6.46 ERA this year he is headed towards Tommy John surgery. By 2027 when he is fully ready to return he will be out of options. George Klassen SP: Acquired by the Angels for closer Carlos Estevez. The former Gopher was lights out in A Ball at the time of the trade. He has moved to AA this year and has a 5.86 ERA with a lot of strikeouts and far too many walks. He did get invited to the futures game. Augustin Ramirez C/DH: Acquired by the Marlins for Jazz Chisholm who had an 2+ years of control remaining. Ramirez is in the majors. He has started 32 games at catcher and has allowed 88% stolen base rate. He also leads the league in passed balls with 8 though he has only started 32 of 97 games. Fourteen wild pitches have also been thrown while he was catcher. He has DH’d more than he has caught this year and has a 103 wRC+. He will likely improve the bat and will need to in order to stick at DH. It doesn’t look like he will be anything beyond an emergency catcher. Dylan Lesko SP: Acquired by the Rays in the Jason Adam deal. he has a great arm but has not pitched well in the minors yet following a 2022 Tommy John surgery. He pitched 14.1 innings after the deal last year with a 9.42 ERA and this year was shut down after 5 innings in which he gave up 10 runs. I am not sure of the status of his shut down. Hindsight is 20/20 and there is one prospect traded that is flourishing. Kyle Stowers was acquired for Kevin Rogers. He was in ESPNs third tier of prospects. The corner outfielder appeared in the All Star game and looks to be a fixture. A high strike out rate might catch up with him as pitchers see him a second a third time but he looks to be the real deal. Prospects always seem so promising. The reality is that success in the major leagues is really hard. Trading proven major leaguers for prospects is a risk. Teams acquiring the top tier of prospects were given good grades last year. In hindsight it sure looks like they didn’t get nearly enough. Maybe the Twins front office is much smarter than the front offices that acquired these players and there will be less risk.

What are the comps for an all star level pitcher or closer are trading at the deadline with 2 additional years of service time? I did find one player last year that was traded with an additional two years of service time. Jazz Chisholm for the previous was an average hitter last year and the previous year. He did get a fair return but not one that would change a franchise. They received a catcher who they are finding out really can’t play catcher. Though he has started only 32 games he leads the league in passed balls. Runners steal bases nearly 90% of the time. He starts more at DH. They would be better off with Chisholm this year and probably could have traded him for near the same return. Perhaps they would have found someone that can play defense at the major league level. That is the risk with prospects. The reports look good as the play in the minors but the speed of the game in the majors is several levels up. I really think it is foolish to trade Ryan or Duran now. How much more should they expect to get in trade now as opposed to next year? The sweet spot for the trade is with one additional year of service time. It is much easier to trade an all star starter or closer than it is to acquire one. Let the new owners make that decision. Maybe they will put more money into the payroll and a trade won’t be necessary. If not they can trade them next summer.

I would shoot for Blade Tidwell. The shine on his prospect status may be lessening. He is 24 and using an option this year. Might be a candidate to see how he does in a relief role the last few months. In general adding to the catcher pool or looking for a buy low pitcher that has arm talent would be good targets.

I have thought about the Guardians and Rays. I think the 2024 Tigers had a better plan.

I would sell off the expiring contracts this July but it isn’t a rebuild. I am going the 2024 Tigers route. They traded off four expiring contracts and let the players in their system have a chance to play. All four played significantly in their first half in #2 starter Jack Flaherty, lefty reliever Andrew Chafin, catcher Carson Kelly and Mark Canha. They replaced Flaherty with an opener and Tyler Hilton and Beau Brieske emerged. Brant Hurter was the lefty reliever. Spencer Torkelson returned from his exile to the minors and had a .945 OPS in August. Dillon Dingler got his feet wet at catcher. I am guessing the plan was to see what they needed for 2025 but it resulted in a couple rounds of playoff baseball. That means we trade Willi Castro. That will hurt. Not Jack Flaherty hurt but it will hurt. Keaschall will be returning and let’s look at Austin Martin. We trade lefty specialist Danny Coulombe. That will hurt. The bullpen is very thin. Everyone is healthy and two on the current roster don’t look to be major league ready. Is it time to see Connor Prielipp in a relief role? Maybe not. The plan for a full healthy season is a priority. If not then Funderburk gets off the shuttle and gets a two month consistent shot. Can they get anything for Paddack? Take what they can get and make sure Festa, Matthews and Woods Richardson have a spot in the rotation the rest of the year. Can they get anything for France? The return for Canha was little but the open spot gave a chance for Torkelson to earn back some trust. Maybe Clemens gets a good share of 1B. Maybe Julien returns here. What does Keaschall look like at 1B? Miranda’s last stand? It might mean paying some of the contract for Vazquez but let’s do it. Let’s see Mickey Gasper at catcher for two months. Teams will run against him. In AAA he gives up a stolen base every 6.5 innings while Camargo is one of the best and gives up a stolen base every 9 innings. It amounts to an extra stolen base every three games. Can his bat make up the difference even if it a stolen base per game at this level? Let’s see about the rest of his game at catcher. Marco Raya had some very positive things to say about Gasper behind the plate. Bader will hurt too. Will Rodriguez be healthy? Probably not. That leaves an opening for Carson McCusker or Walker Jenkins. They might also send out Keirsey now and bring up Martin. Get Keirsey some at bats for a few weeks and maybe he gets a real shot with the bat when he returns. Anyone else? Justin Topa is not matching his 2023 season. I would trade him. The bullpen already has holes to fill today. Maybe the return for some of the other players is a failed starter or a blocked minor league reliever they give a chance in the pen for the final two months. Why not rebuild? There are a few reasons. The largest is I want the new owners to be able to shape this club. If they want to go for it in the next few years they need Joe Ryan, Jhoan Duran and to a lesser extent Griffin Jax. Selling this players is easy. New owners wanting to replace them will be hard. The new owners need to be able to set the direction. The sweet spot for selling is the deadline with 1 season remaining. They have two. The return for them will not be that much less next summer and it gives the Twins a better chance to compete next year. I suppose someone could argue that they may get injured. It is also true that the key prospect we get in return for them this year could get injured. There are some players they need to make decisions on to help build next year’s roster. Many have shown flashes in the majors and shown success in the minors. This winter’s decisions will be more informed if they open these 7 spots. I endorse the Tiger Plan

I think he will be a plus on a corner. I am not sure about second base. He moved off shortstop in college to second base and most college second basemen that make it to the majors have moved to a corner. His DP rates relative to the rest of the second basemen was underwhelming in Wichita. That rate was below Julien’s in AAA this year. Both small samples. The combination of his injuries and his earlier move off shortstop lead me to wonder if his best spot is on a corner. First base for this year and hopefully left field next year where his athleticism will be an asset.