jorgenswest

How does the Twins performance up the middle compare to the other teams of the AL Central? With the help of fangraphs, here is how the AL Central teams performed up the middle. Catcher (Ranked by wRC+) Tigers (4th) 100 Royals (7th) 87 Indians (8th) 86 White Sox (9th) 80 Twins (13th) 56 For fear of long discussion about WAR, I will leave it out. For the other positions, I will put some defensive rankings. We could start a thread and argue about catcher defense and framing also. I will state without numbers that the Royals and Indians get more help defensive from their catchers than the Tigers and Twins. The White Sox are probably below them The Indians lost Yan Gomes for much of the first half. His return should improve their performance at catcher. Avila’s return should improve the Tigers. It is hard to imagine that Suzuki will improve given his workload. On the farm: Josmil Pinto is suffering from concussions. Eric Fryer had a good half season with the bat that is out of line with several years of previous performance. Stuart Turner is a good defender and might project towards a Drew Butera type career. That isn't a knock. Truly good defensive catchers that can handle a pitching staff are not easy to find and not in abundance in AAA. Secondbase Indians (1st) 156 Twins (2nd) 132 Tigers (7th) 93 Royals (14th) 49 White Sox(15th) 27 Defensively the Royals are first followed by Tigers(3), Indians(7), White Sox(10) and Twins(11). I think that Dozier is a good defensive 2B. The other guys are also. I don’t think the difference between Dozier and Infante is very significant. This looks to be a position that the Royals will get an upgrade in the second half. It is very unlikely that their second basement will have an OBP of 240 even if they remain the same. The Indians and Twins have elite players that should continue to play well. On the farm: Beresford, Bernier and Polanco are all in AAA. None is Dozier of course, but all could do a respectable job as a utility player short term. Polanco has upside of a starter Shortstop Tigers (2nd) 113 Twins (6th) 84 Royals (9th) 82 Indians(14th) 45 Sox(15th) 38 Defensively, Tigers (1st), Royals (7), White Sox(11), Twins (12) and Indians (13) I think both the Twins and Indians improve. Lindor is an upgrade. The Twins have a lot of innings of very shaky performance from Santana. Escobar and Nunez show better than league average SS bats and are getting a better percentage of the playing time. If Santana plays it is because he has improved. Unbelievable all star level play from Iglesias thus far, but I think he will regress some. Ramirez will be better for the White Sox. Centerfield Royals (2nd) 130 Tigers (8th) 104 Sox (11th) 88 Indians(12th) 81 Twins(15th) 60 Defensively, the Royals (1st) are kings followed by Twins (8th), Tigers (11th), Indians(14th) and White Sox(15th). The Twins numbers are dragged down by Schafer. Hicks and Buxton should improve. Rosario looked respectable as a fall back option. Cain is elite and the Twins can't close this gap entirely in 2015. They can gain ground towards league average contribution. On the farm: Hicks, Buxton and Rosario were all in the minors to start the season. Farris and Ortiz now play CF in AAA. Niko Goodrum started in CF the first two weeks after Buxton was called up but it has been Kepler in the last week. Twins Outlook Without a trade, I expect better performance centerfield in the second half. I think the performance at shortstop will also improve and it is already league average. The Twins can’t afford an injury to Dozier and his elite level play. He should continue to perform well. Catcher is the black hole. Suzuki’s performance dropped last year with the heavy workload. It has nowhere to drop this year in the second half. Up the middle, it is the one position where a trade can have a significant impact. Next: On the Corners

Brewers need starting pitching. If they want to move Lucroy, they are going to look for a Berrios type prospect. The supply of catchers is low, they should be able to get one. In their eyes... Arcia- no DH in NL. Questionable strike zone judgement. Out of options next year. Kepler- LF arm or 1B. No DH in NL. Does half season surge in AA represent a spike or is it real? Polanco- probably a 2B. Is he that much better than Sardinas? The two other guys add no value. No way they are trading Lucroy for two potential DHs and at best corner players and a 2B prospect.

Rangers bullpen is ranked 29th in ERA and last in FIP. They are desperate for bullpen help. If he isn't a fit to help the Rangers, how does he help the Twins? There is likely a team out there that believes they see something in Feliz that they can fix. Maybe it is the Twins. More likely his addition would delay solving the problem.

Brewers. They are not trading Lucroy. With that trade they also have to designate two guys on their 40 so they are giving up more than Smith and Lucroy.

I think the Twins need to call up Arcia. Play him in RF once a series for Torii. DH him and rest Plouffe occasionally with Sano at 3B. Provide a better bench bat option to pinch hit for Suzuki. The Twins need a weapon on the bench to use late in games. Arcia or whoever is out of the lineup when he is in the game can be that weapon. I think it is more important than the role Duensing has on the team right now.

Arcia should be viewed as their best solution for RF next year. Kepler and Walker haven't played this level. Sano barely has played and never in the OF. They need to let go of Torii before his numbers collapse. I would trade him for someone who is their best solution at catcher next year, but most teams don't want to trade up the middle guys for corner guys.

We need a good start from Pelfrey tonight.

Compared to 6 man, May loses one start. Trading a May start against Orioles for Gibson start against Tigers. Milone start moves from Tigers to Orioles. May available in pen soon. Maybe today if it was throwing day. Milone or Pelfrey wouldn't have available until into next week.

Does anyone have an opinion on whether the Twins should start Gibson Tuesday and give him two more starts? Doing so would take a start away from May, Pelfrey or Milone.

Projecting towards the future using triple slash probably requires going back at least 500 plate appearances. Molitor can probably spot them. It might be a platoon by Twins starting pitcher making sure Nunez isn't the SS when pitchers with ground ball tendencies are starting.

If you have to write "don't want to appear insensitive" it is probably a clue that you shouldn't press post. An article from two weeks ago. http://m.1500espn.com/pages/sportswire.php?sPL=dealing_with_family_medical_issue_robinson_balances_baseball_life062115

Hicks seems a better choice than Santana. It really depends on Hicks' arm. Is it fully healthy? Trading Pelfrey now only makes sense if the Twins are confident in Berrios or whoever they would bring up if one of the other 5 is injured. Nolasco appears a long way off. They must have no faith in their left handed duo in the pen. Numerous opportunities for them to pitch in close games have come up and been avoided. Worked out yesterday with Gibson. Didn't work out with Pelfrey against the White Sox. One of those two should go down when Ervin returns. Milone isn't a good fit for that role either so the Twins will have to go without. We can look at AAA numbers and say that Rogers would be good but that is a big jump into a role that he has never been used. Hicks for Santana when healthy Keep Pelfrey for a while Remove a lefty to make space for Ervin

Gibson can start two more times. Tuesday and Sunday. A 6 man rotation would eliminate that possibility. Which of these gives the Twins the least chance to win next week? Gibson v Tigers Milone v Tigers May v Orioles (skipping May and means Milone starts against the Orioles instead of the Tigers) Pelfrey v Tigers Isn't that how the Twins should make up their rotation? Debating the merits of the 6 man rotation is a nice exercise but the Twins are playing real games and need to decide based on their best chances to win those games. Molitor needs to assess which of those gives him the best shot at winning games.

I agree with you in theory. I think every team would go this route. It wouldn't work. The Twins have a larger bonus pool this year than they will see in the future. They used it to get one guy that likely would have signed by those going over pool. If they try to sign a bunch of guys just above $500,000 they could be left with the players they targeted going to other teams with the same plan. Now they have to turn to lesser players and still offer them an amount above the level that the restricted teams can pay.

If the 6 man rotation is only until the all star break it means everyone will get 2 starts with the exception of May getting one start. Assuming Santana starts two games, the Twins have the following option for those losing a start. 1-May and Gibson each 1 (6 man rotation) 2-May 2 (May to pen) 3-Milone/Pelfrey 1 and Gibson/May 1 (Milone or Pelfrey to pen, Gibson or May loss depends which starts Tuesday) Which is the best option to take them to the break? I am waiting to see what Pelfrey brings Saturday. Another way to look at it is to consider the opponent. Santana and Hughes are lined up to start against the Tigers. Which 2 of the other 4 give the Twins the best chance to beat the Tigers? The Twins don't need to be debating the merits of a 6 man rotation. They have to figure out how to best win the majority of the next 11 games.

This one signing exceeds their pool. They can go 5% over with the only penalty being dollars. More than 5% and it impacts their ability to sign players next year. That would be foolish because if you are going to go over, go way over. Sign multiple guys in the top 30. That isn't going to happen. They are throwing their international eggs in one basket this year. They can trade for more pool money, but most of these guys will never make it. It would be unwise to trade Arcia or similar for pool money. Almost any younger player they have in AA or AAA is much more likely to be useful at the major league level than a 16 year old signing

Six starters - the result gives a potential Gibson start to May, Pelfrey or Milone. Rest someone - the Twins could reduce the workload of May or Hughes by 2 starts. May might make sense because he hasn't thrown over 150 innings. Hughes to see if they can get his velocity back up to norm. The two starts would be one for Pelfrey or Milone and the other for Gibson. Pelfrey or Milone to pen - they would lose 1 start that would either go to Gibson or May. Is it a good trade off?

The Twins have 11 games left before the all star break. Santana's return gives them some flexibility with their rotation. We know that the next 5 starters are Gibson, Milone, Pelfrey, Santana and Hughes. If the Twins felt Hughes gave the the better chance to win the key game Sunday, they could flip him with Santana. Starts in the next 11 games that are certain (barring injury) Gibson 2 Milone 1 Pelfrey 1 Santana 2 Hughes 2 That is 8 starts. The other three would come from these possibilities. Gibson could start next Tuesday and get a third start the following Sunday. Milone and Pelfrey could each start one game. May could start 1 or even 2 more starts if he gets the start next Tuesday. Three extra starts. I give them to Gibson, May and Milone. Pelfrey can change my mind with an outstanding start in Saturday. Another possibility is resting Hughes if they think it would help him return his velocity. They can have Santana take his spot in the rotation and wouldn't need Hughes until after the break. I don't think he would be needed until July 22. His last start was yesterday June 30. Would the rest help?

I think 6 starters will cost Gibson a start prior to the all star break. They can skip any of the 6 and give Gibson that start. They simply need to decide which pitcher gives them the least chance of winning. Going with starters until the all star break is essentially deciding the starter that gives them the least chance to win is Gibson.

I ended by saying he needed to perform in his next start. He did. There should have been no free ride to a starting spot. My comment in this thread after listening to his start Milone stepped up. May stepped up. Now Pelfrey needs to make this a really difficult decison for the Twins. If he has a third bad start in a row, it should be an easy decision.

AA has already had all star break. He doesn't need a break. He needs to play.

They need defense in CF for the KC series and a DH bat.

Not close. Can't blame Escobar. He can't hit a ball there. I would have been upset if he chased.

Nice game from May. With an average defensive catcher he might have a shut out through 6.

If the goal is to outpitch, you need to back that up with strong defense up the middle. One or two missed opportunities from Nunez and Santana adds to the pitch count and contributes to the other team putting up crooked numbers.