jorgenswest

Do the Twins care about winning? Do they care about earning a job by performing? I listened again tonight. He was good innings 6 and 7. That isn't good enough. He was able to get out of jams in the first 5 innings against some mediocre hitters. He needs to be a lot better. Try have taken him out for Darnell.

Desmond would be a short term rental. The Twins have to be very confident there isn't injury or something else underlying that is leading to his poor performance this year. They don't have the luxury of time for him to move back towards his mean level of performance. If they are not confident that they can turn him around immediately, they can't give up prospects. Bret Boone was a pure salary dump in 2005 when he was one of the highest paid middle infielders. He hit 120 home runs from 2001-2004. He had an off half season in 2005 with 7 HRs and low OBP when traded to the Twins for salary relief. He was awful for the Twins and kept them form looking for a real solution. The Twins don't need a bad half season from Desmond.

Anybody else paying attention to Santana's second start? I listened to the first. He wasn't very good, but was able to limit damage. Tonight through 5 7 hits, 3 runs, 2 home runs, 2 walks, 1 strikeout Maybe his third start will be dominant. Is that enough to put him in the rotation? Not for me. Is he a given for the rotation? I hope he has to earn it. The 5 men that have worked their tails off without PEDs deserve it. Edit: Solid innings 6,7 with no hits and 2 strike outs. Overall not a very encouraging performance with 9 base runners in first 5 innings. He should have been taken out after 4 but was on a pitch count and performance didn't matter. Needs to be lights out in his third start. Milone set that bar in Rochester.

The Twins are simply utilizing Tonkin and his option. There will be a need for a reliever again. Tonkin is not done.

Any acquisition that costs prospects needs to be for this year and next. If they can find a match for Pelfrey in a swap of veterans who will be free agents, that would make sense. I am not sure there is a match. Is there a team with a need in the rotation that can give the Twins short term help at SS or C? Maybe there is a three team trade with Pelfrey moving to a contender in need of a starter and that team filling a Washington need and Desmond coming to Minnesota.

Good move. The experience these young players are getting while contending is invaluable. I didn't expect it this year. This is also Plouffe and Dozier first go around on a competitive major league team. I haven't looked but I don't think their teams were very successful in the minors either. The younger players may end up costing them this year. They also have the upside that is hard to acquire. The experience will pay off in the future and maybe this year.

On Desmond... The Twins really need someone is getting on base from SS. Another high strike out low on base guy with occasional power is not needed. I would bet on Santana doing a better job of getting on base than Desmond in the second half.

You don't need any stats. Just watch Tuesday's game. Balls were hit to both sides of him that Santana was getting. Key ground balls at key moments. He fumbled a double play ball hit right to him. He extended innings and as a result Pelfrey is up in pitch count and facing LaRoche and Cabrera. That loss is a different game with almost anyone else at SS. Nunez is not a solution at SS. He should never be at SS with Gibson or Pelfrey pitching. They rely on ground balls. We have seen the impact of bad defense from the outfield the last few years. Let's not forget the impact of bad defense when we were playing Nishioka and Plouffe at SS.

Makes sense. A middle infielder would give them the most flexibility.

I don't think it would be another lefty. They would have moved Thompson or Duensing if that was the case. There isn't enough work for both of them now. It think it will be a bat. No DH but pinch hitting and doubles switches require more of a bench. Maybe a short term call up for one of the AA guys until either Hicks or Santana is on the roster.

A year ago we could have got him for Suzuki.

Theilbar's numbers in the majors against lefties are very good. Rogers in the minors outstanding. I would go with either of them before Coke.

That's not good enough. It just means they go 5 more weeks and realize they don't have a solution.

Molitor's lack of trust in Duensing and Thompson is very evident tonight. He kept Pelfrey in against Cabrera in the 7th and Fien against Eaton in the 8th. Two outs and runners in scoring position. If you aren't going to use them in that situation, when would they be needed? I think it is time for Thielbar.

Very thoughtful about line up. Makes pretty good use with the roster he is given. I don't like the use of Escobar in LF or Nunez at SS but that is more on Arcia and Santana than Molitor. If they had played as expected, Nunez and Escobar wouldn't be exposed. I don't think I would use Nunez at SS with Pelfrey or Gibson and their ground ball tendencies though.

http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-6678-rebuilding-a-bullpen/

Is he likely to have a better second half than Duensing? I don't think so. They are comparable but I would bet on a Duensing. His signing would delay the solution to the problem rather than solve it.

If you don't believe over 500 innings is enough to use their actual performance (adjusted for park and league) at least compare the peripherals as one sample. By season, there is no way to understand scale. For instance, isn't 2011 simply a September call up for Milone? Santana needs to earn a spot. Very good performance two years ago and good peripherals with mediocre performance last year isn't enough. He needs to perform first.

His ERA+ would have been adjusted for park and league. Otherwise he would have had a better number. There is reason to be skeptical. Oakland traded him for a journeyman CF. Someone above commented he was waived but that was not correct. He was optioned after they acquired two very good starters. There is also reason to be skeptical of Nolasco and Santana. Pitchers who are league average or worse through ages 26-31 rarely are very good ages 32-35. http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-6349-what-can-the-twins-expect-from-santana-and-nolasco/ My hope is that Santana earns a spot by dominating AAA or coming up and being lights out from the bullpen. The current starting 5 earned the chance to compete against him for their spot.

It needs to be that easy. They need to give themselves the best chance to win. Neither Santana or Nolasco will have any trade value. They didn't have trade value the moment the Twins gave them the contract. They compounded it with their performance and actions since signing those contracts. The Twins need to start the best 5. Santana may be one of the best 5 but he needs to show it and earn that spot.

Is it certain that Santana and Nolasco will perform better than the 5 pitchers currently in the rotation? Their projections do not suggest it is clear. Milone has performed better than either of the other two since 2012 and is 28. Perhaps those 500+ innings don't represent his true skill level, but that is a pretty big sample to ignore. Milone 98 ERA+ Santana 95 ERA+ Nolasco 87 ERA+ The Twins were foolish to give Santana a long term contract when he couldn't find one the previous two off seasons. They were foolish to jump into the market early with both Santana and Nolasco instead of letting the market dictate their value. Will they be foolish to pitch them when they aren't one of the best 5 options? That is going to happen sometime in the next few years as they decline. Maybe we are already there.

The Twins bullpen has the poorest strike out rate in the majors. This is not a surprise and was projected when the 25 man roster was announced. The Twins may need to trade for bullpen help at the deadline. Before that happens, I hope they look at solutions internally. The Twins need at most one LOOGY as opposed to the two they are using now. These pitchers are possible internal solutions. The split rates are since 2011 unless otherwise specified. That allows a large enough sample in taking a split. Duensing- In his career he has done much better against lefties with a 2.97 FIP, 19.4% K rate and 4.9% BB rate. Unfortunately his ability against lefties may be slipping. This year he has a 12.1% K rate and the same walk rate. He has never been effective against right handed pitching. Thompson- He was used for multiple innings at the start of the year. His numbers against just lefties are better than Duensings this year with a 20% K rate and 12% walk rate. For his career he has been better against lefties but not to the extreme of the typical LOOGY. Milone- Milone has reverse splits for his career. He should not replace Duensing or Thompson as a left handed relief specialist coming out of the pen. If he is in the pen, a Swarzak type role would be better. Thielbar- He has so few innings at a single level to look at this years numbers alone. His major league numbers of 25.4% k-rate and 5.5% walk rate can not be matched by Duensing or Thompson. The numbers in the minors are better. I wonder if he is healthy and at the same skill level this year. He previous performance fits the LOOGY role better than Duensing or Thompson. Rogers- Left handed batters can not touch him in the minors. He has a K rate of 30% and a walk rate of 3%. Lefthanded OPS against is .499. Right handed batters have much more success. The K-rate is cut in half at 15.5% while the walk rate more than doubles at 7.3%. Right handed batters have a .712 OPS. No LOOGY- Is it possible that none of the options are so good against left handed batters that it isn't worthwhile keeping one of these guys in the pen? They do have Perkins who can come in and get a key lefty with two outs in the 8th. There are some other candidates that might help in the pen. Meyer- He has reverse platoon splits over his career striking out a greater rate of left handed hitters than right handed hitters. His career 30.4% K-rate of lefties is greater than any of the lefthanded pitchers listed above. If he finds success in relief, you might not want to take him out for a LOOGY. Oliveros- He has very good strike out rates against left and right handed batters. His splits aren't reversed, but it doesn't appear he would be a pitcher that they would need to shield from left handed batters. Achter- While his strike out rates have been much better against right handed batters, he hasn't allowed left handed batters to hit home runs very often. I am not sure how well that would translate to the major leagues. He might be someone they would want to keep away from left handed batters. Tonkin- He hasn't faced many left handed batters in the majors and he hasn't done well in those 75 plate appearances. He had neutral platoon splits in the minors. Pressly- His major league numbers are neutral. His FIP against lefties n the majors is better but OPS against is worse. Boyer- His career numbers show less than 10% k-rate against left handed pitching. It is hard to imagine that he could be successful against lefties with that k-rate. On the whole he hasn't been successful. This year left handed batters have faced him 43 times. He has been extremely successful with a 2.51 FIP against lefties. Right handed batters have done very well against him this year resulting in a FIP of 5.09. If the numbers are real, he might be the best LOOGY option. Just don't let him pitch against a right handed batter. I fear the numbers are not real and his career strike out rate of 9.8% against lefties will resurface as he regresses. Graham- Let him mop up as long as they can afford the roster space. There may come a time when contending leads to a move. He can be used as part of a trade package. Perkins and Fien- I don't see any reason to move them out of their current roles. The Twins might consider going with no LOOGY for a while. The Twins right handed relievers probably handle left handed batters as well as the left handed pitching options. They might consider releasing Duensing while optioning Thompson and Tonkin. Bring in Meyer and give Thielbar a shot at LOOGY. If not Thielbar then Rogers. When Santana returns, they can make a decision about whether they need a LOOGY. If so, they will probably be back to an 8 man pen. They need to be careful about Boyer and evaluate at the all star break. His release might allow them to go back to 7 pitchers or he might be replaced by Tonkin, Oliveros or Achter. Evaluate the bullpen again as the trade deadline approaches. If the internal solutions have not made an impact they will need to go outside and pay with some prospects in hopes of filling the need.

Clippard's strikeout rate this year has dropped from 29.5% to 22.1%. His walk rate has increased from 8.3% to 10.1%. His groundball rate has dropped from 36.9% to 19.5%. Those numbers lead to a FIP of 3.96 as compared to 2.75 last year and an xFIP of 5.21. There are only 8 relievers with at least 30 IP with a FIP- above 100 (worse than league average). Clippard and Boyer are two of them. Clippard might not be a great pick up. Maybe not even a good pick up.

I would like to see if they have an answer in house before trading a prospect at the deadline.

They need to wait and see if Santana improves in his next two starts. His first wasn't good but it can be explained by being rusty. He needs to dominate before they give him one of the 5 spots. If not let him dominate in the pen through the all star break. He needs to show he is a better option than the current 5 before earning a spot.