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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    You keep posting. I will keep liking.
  2. jorgenswest
    It was his poor arm and range and not mental. The likelihood that he would need to move to second base or utility role due to his physical skills was well reported prior to him arriving in the majors. http://www.startribune.com/la-velle-twins-shortstop-solution-from-carroll-to-dozier/133984483/?c=n&clmob=y http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/3/28/8283275/prospect-retrospective-and-career-profile-brian-dozier-2b-twins Too often on TD lack of success is attributed to giving up and mental make up. The Twins ability to prevent runs this year is greatly helped by the improved defense. Regular play of Rosario at 2B, Dozier at SS and Arcia in LF would be disastrous. I think that the Twins can get away with Arcia or Hunter in RF on any day and both in the OF when a groundball pitcher is throwing. Similarly they have been starting Nunez at SS with a fly ball pitcher at times.
  3. jorgenswest
    Fryer could not be viewed by other clubs as a good defensive catcher. Good defensive catchers get traded for or at least claimed when DFA'd. It is unlikely there is any team in baseball that would trade their number 2 catcher straight up for Fryer.
  4. jorgenswest
    How difficult will the 40 man decisions be this winter? Maybe not that difficult. I don't see the urgency to trade prospects or lose them to rule 5. This was done a month ago. Since then Schafer was released and Buxton added to the 40. http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-6647-looking-at-the-40-man-roster/
  5. jorgenswest
    This month. My guess is the Twins would call up a pitcher and then use Escobar in LF with Hunter at DH or use Nunez at DH. Assuming they are facing right handed pitching at the time of the leave, I hope they would bring up Arcia.
  6. jorgenswest
    Benoit will be owed less than 3 million at the deadline. His option won't vest. His buyout is 1.5 million. If their goal is to rid themselves of contracts, they won't be helped much by moving Benoit. They have much bigger commitments in terms of dollars and years on the roster. They should view Benoit as one of the few cheap rentals they can move in hopes of getting value back in terms of a prospect.
  7. jorgenswest
    Right handed groundball pitchers decline quickly when they drop in velocity as they age. Look at Masterson's performance as his velocity drops. Look at Halliday. The Twins don't know when Gibson will lose a few miles off his fastball, but if they are betting it will a few years beyond the age of 32 they will likely lose that bet.
  8. jorgenswest
    If the Twins do make a deal for AJ, they should try to get full rights to Graham as part of that deal. The flexibility to send Graham to AAA would help if they add a bullpen arm combined with the return of Pressly.
  9. jorgenswest
    I know it goes against the Twin philosophy of paying pitchers lots of money for little performance, but why not let him perform well and earn his due in arbitration? The Twins can afford the arbitration reward.
  10. jorgenswest
    They need an option to send him to the minors following spring training. They won't have one. I believe Arcia will develop more with 10-15 major league plat appearances a week than 25 in AAA. He isn't going to learn how to hit major league pitching in AAA. He has recovered his swing and timing following the hip injury. Every time Escobar, Nunez or Robinson is in LF is an opportunity missed. Plouffe will be on maternity leave. Mauer and Hunter will benefit from days off.
  11. jorgenswest
    Papelbon has no trade protection. He has insisted that he must go to a contender that will use him as a closer. He needs to finish games so his option will vest. Closer status will give him better value following 2016.
  12. jorgenswest
    The Twins OPS from the SS position ranks 12th of 30. They are getting above median production according to OPS, wRC+ and WOBA. That is with a performance from Santana that should be better in the second half. It is one of few positions where the Twins OPS position split is above the median. They also have above median OPS production from 2B and 3B. Catchers rank 25th.
  13. jorgenswest
    Yes. Only 2012 and 2013 were good records on both teams. He played in 212 games which is near 2/3. Neither team felt strong enough about his play to keep him. On the surface it is one position where Twin production is far below league average at the position. Measures suggest it is a position the Twins can make solid gains just by approaching league average. Is there anything unmeasured the Twins would risk losing if they found a perceived upgrade?
  14. jorgenswest
    I don't know what it proves. I am no longer sure it should be ignored. Is it possible Suzuki brings significant value beyond measurement?
  15. jorgenswest
    The Giants will trade prospects. The Giants may use Susac to get a piece they feel they need. That wasn't going to happen in May. They are going to go through internal options first. McGehee didn't work out. Duffy looks to be working out. If something happens to Duffy between now and July 31, the Giants valuation of Susac will not have changed but their motivation to make the move will have changed. Meanwhile the Twins are winning with Suzuki or in spite of Suzuki. Which is it? Somehow Suzuki keeps putting up unimpressive offensive and defensive numbers on winning teams.
  16. jorgenswest
    500 at bats for an established major leaguer is very different from a player's first 500 at bats. Arcia, Hicks, Dozier, Plouffe and Hunter all look pretty bad at the first 500 plate appearances. You can't learn to hit major league pitching in AAA. It takes time measured in years. Teams need to invest 1500 plate appearances in their prospects. They need to use those options. The Royals waited longer than 1500 for Gordon and Moustakas. The Twins will need similar partience with their prospects. It would be wise for TD readers to ignore any post using stats early in a career in an argument that the player can't or won't ever hit.
  17. jorgenswest
    Ervin will create an opening on the 25.
  18. jorgenswest
    There is so much more information about the value of catchers now and somehow a guy like Suzuki who doesn't measure up well offensively or defensively ends up on teams that win a lot of games. Are the a Twins winning in spite of him? Maybe he contributes more than can be measured. A veteran like A.J. who can be trusted with more games than Fryer/Herrmann might be the better direction. He will not be an expensive addition.
  19. jorgenswest
    Susac entered the season as a top 100 prospect at a premium position. The Giants have said they will reduce Posey's workload at catcher and did reduce it last year. They need him. I don't see how Susac's value could possibly have changed. The Giants are a smart team. They are not going to make decisions on the roller coaster of small monthly samples. He entered the season as a very valuable asset. That hasn't changed.
  20. jorgenswest
    I wouldn't write off any of the above before 1500 plate appearances.
  21. jorgenswest
    83 wins. No playoffs. I think they will be close to a .500 pace the rest of the way which would put them at 85. However Perkins won't be perfect and they have 5 more games on the road. Hence 83.
  22. jorgenswest
    He certainly struggled regaining his swing after the hip injury. Hips are so important to hitting and an injury can mess with timing and plane. I think his last stretch shows he is healthy. I would be interested in his chase rate the last two weeks to see if he is staying in the zone. He doesn't need to be solely a bench player. He can get plenty of at bats starting in half the games. If he does well, he earns more. it is possible that 10-15 plate appearances in the majors every week is better than 20-25 AAA plate appearances for his development.
  23. jorgenswest
    Papelbon needs to finish games in order for his option to vest. No way he accepts a trade to a team that plans to use him in the 8th inning.
  24. jorgenswest
    I hope the Twins haven't placed their bets yet. He is way too young. They need to find 150 plate at bats for him in the second half.
  25. jorgenswest
    Some would no longer be ranked that high, but it includes the two guys I originally suggested it would take in Walker or Gonsalves. Take away those that have not progressed this year and it is a good list. It would hurt to lose some of those guys. If it doesn't hurt, it won't be enough. It also won't be enough to package a group of lesser prospects.
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