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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Bringing in Jepsen to face two left handed batters to start an inning was not my thought on utilizing him well.
  2. jorgenswest
    They can start Duffey and back him up with May. If he has a short start they can stretch out May and start him the next time in that spot.
  3. jorgenswest
    I don't get the spot for him argument. There are 25 spots on the roster and the Twins need to fill those in a way that gives them the best chance to win games. Escobar and Nunez saw a game at DH this week. It could have been Arcia. Hunter's OPS since July 1 is .536. Arcia could be starting against right handed pitching. They had no pinch hitter last night when they had to rely on Suzuki against a closer that is really good against right handed batters. It worked out, but a pinch hitting threat on the bench may have forced them to pitch to Rosario. Do we want to continue with no option late in games with Suzuki batting? I think the roster is better with 12 pitchers and another bat.
  4. jorgenswest
    Do we all realize that a half season of numbers from a reliever isn't enough to consider ERA, FIP, xFIP and other ERA predictors? Using them to support an argument about who will be better in the second half creates an empty argument. Only the eyes of a skilled human can discern the pitcher with more value. Over the last three years Jepsen has been extremely good against right handed batters. The Twins need to utilize this skill. He is the best option to get a right handed batter out in the 7th or 8th innings. The Blue Jays and Angels are loaded with right handed batters in the middle of their lineups. It would be a mistake to see him as an 8th inning guy without regard to who will be batting. This is the first year since 2010 where he has faced more left handed batters than right handed batters. I hope the Twins reverse that trend.
  5. jorgenswest
    I agree about not bringing Hunter back. I think any trade of Nolasco will include cash to cover most of his salary. Trading him won't free up money as they will still be paying for him. It will open a spot in the starting rotation. Berrios and May need to be part of that rotation. They might be wise to start Graham in AAA in the rotation. The bench probably does not work. No one has options when a 13th pitcher is needed. Does Nunez hit well enough to be carried on the roster without a position? The numbers are good this year but the sample is small and it may not be a skill change. It is more likely variation due to sample. They might let him go. I think they will have also DFA'd Danny Santana and Josmil Pinto due to options since they are not rostered.
  6. jorgenswest
    The Twins added Kevin Jepsen today. How does he fit in the pen? Jepsen does one thing really well. He is extremely tough on right handed batters. He has held them to a .510 OPS this year and .470 last year. That is far better than anyone on the Twins. The Rays have generally used this skill well. This is the first year in the last 5 where he has faced more left handed hitters than right handed hitters. They haven't utilized his talent as well this year. The Twins need him. They Blue Jays are heavy with right handed bats in Batista, Tulowitzki, Encarnacion and Donaldson. He is the Twins best option against those hitters. They see the Blue Jays next week. As it stands today, the Twins would face the Angels in a single playoff game. The best Angel hitters also bat right handed in Trout and Pujols. The Twins need to utilize Jepsen's skill as Maddon did well with the Rays. Use him when the Jays are going through the middle of their lineup whether it be the 7th, 8th or even 6th inning. They need to make sure he is seeing the opposing team's best right handed batters later in the game. Keep Trevor May in that 8th inning set up role. Mix in O'Rourke against a lefty. Use Fien in the 7th or even 6th to get out of a jam. The reliever the Twins added has done a far better job of getting out right handed batters than Clippard or Broxton. It is up to the Twins, Molitor and Allen to utilize that skill.
  7. jorgenswest
    The Twins might have been able to get Broxton for Amaurys Minier though Collymore has better career numbers on a similar career path. They might have needed to up the cash. Minier and Collymore are a long way from the majors but they are not nothing.
  8. jorgenswest
    I gues you could look at the guys who moved and look for a comp in the Twins system. Maybe they could have won the Clippard deal by sending Gonsalves and Tapia for example. If a guy didn't move I am going to believe that the asking price was so high no team would deal whether it be today or the all star break.
  9. jorgenswest
    The price for Jepsen was reasonable. The Twins had to give up something. The Twins see Toronto in a big series next week. Jepsen becomes their best late inning weapon to face the right handed bats of Batista, Encarnacion, Tulowitzki and Donaldson.
  10. jorgenswest
    My argument than and now is that his start was bad but many players with good careers have had similar bad starts and similar bad months. The Twins need to be patient. If they believe in his talent, They still need to see where he is at after 1000-1500 plate appearances. Those that wrote him off and gave him no chance of a career did not understand his start in the context to the start of many other players who had a similarly awful start.
  11. jorgenswest
    It is reasonable that Arcia will be playing for someone next year and put up 25 home runs. I hope it is the Twins in RF.
  12. jorgenswest
    Nolasco has negative value. If adding him to a trade also means adding more prospects, I would rather keep him and increase payroll.
  13. jorgenswest
    They might try to get the Braves to include Graham in a deal with Pierzynski. It would enable the Twins to add an arm in the pen and give Graham some AAA starts.
  14. jorgenswest
    A .356 OPS for a month is awful. His was the 531st worst month in the history of baseball (50 PAs). Gerald Williams OPS of .145 in August of 1996 is historically bad.
  15. jorgenswest
    Out of any random group of 704 people who played in the major leagues, many do not put up 2 WAR. There are also several players with very good careers on that list. That was always the point at the time. Declarative statements about a career can not be made based on a bad start. I am not arguing that he wasn't bad. He was. So were Gomez and Hunter. I took issue with the unsupported statement that Hicks was historically bad.
  16. jorgenswest
    OK. New search. I used rookie status which will throw out his second season but add a bunch of guys who would not have qualified because they had September call ups and didn't get to the plate appearance minimum in their first two years. Used 200 PAs so that they had to get beyond rookie status. Hicks' OPS+ of 63 ranks 704th among players with rookie status in baseball history. Historically bad? No.
  17. jorgenswest
    How do you was that compare to all months from a player in the history of baseball? Why would anyone label a player after a month? I think that is the point. Many jumped to a conclusion far too early.
  18. jorgenswest
    That statement needs support. I used play index and searched for players with their OPS+ for their first two years using 300 PAs. Historically bad is a 27. Chick Galloway. Drew Butera is a 32. Ben Zobrist is a 33. Hicks is a 68. That is 408th. Near Ben Revere and Brady Anderson. I don't think anyone would call that historically bad. Bad? Yes. Should have been sent down? Yes. Historic? Not close. There are guys like this every year.
  19. jorgenswest
    Hicks was intentionally walked to get to Mauer tonight.
  20. jorgenswest
    Gibson for Sanchez is interesting. Catchers are expensive. Looks like he can hit. Can he defend? Is he another Pinto?
  21. jorgenswest
    I am as interested in Castro as he is interested in the game. The play in Minnesota where he put his head down and let Rosario score was telling. Maybe a trade will be a wake up call and he will work his tail off this winter. I think their current shortstop crew of 4 is a better gamble.
  22. jorgenswest
    Tigers are strengthening themselves for the future and can add back this winter. Good moves on their part. I was hoping they would stick with Price this year. I hate to see them get that young starter but I am glad it wasn't Berrios.
  23. jorgenswest
    I do think Ryan makes the mistake of getting good value and then seeing it as a skill change rather than variation. Did he really believe that the Twins had done something to shift Doumit's and Suzuki's skill level? Did he believe Burton was going to continue to be the pitcher he was in his first year with the Twins? You can't throw out the previous two years and you need to play close attention to aging curve trends when offering extensions. As for catcher, 14 of the top 30 catchers in fWAR were not with their current team before 2014. All moved teams since the offseason the Twins acquired Suzuki. The argument that the Twins had no other options is empty. If Ryan felt he had no other way of solving the catcher problem, then it is indeed time for him to be replaced.
  24. jorgenswest
    If the Twins care about winning they will need to release him before his contract expires. The Twins are getting bottom third production from 1B this year with 0.4 WAR and an OPS of 725. It will not be hard to find a regular 1B that provides more bat. The bench is too small to carry a pinch hitter without position flexibility.
  25. jorgenswest
    Should the Twins resign Torii Hunter for 2016? Torii is going to keep playing until finally he has one or possibly two poor seasons. That could start next year. Maybe it will be the year after. Do the Twins want to be left holding him until he is a big void in RF? I suppose they could wait until the offseason and see how he holds up through September. His July numbers 195/241/592 are underwhelming after two good months. The reason it is important to consider now is Oswaldo Arcia. The Twins can afford to have Arcia in RF with any combination of Rosario/Hicks/Buxton in LF and CF. It would not be a shock that he figures it out and puts up good numbers next year. I am hoping they keep Arcia at the deadline. That starts with a plan to let Torii go after the season. Next year should be the opportunity for Arcia with back up plans in a Hicks/Buxton/Rosario outfield followed by Kepler and Walker needing a shot at the major league level. Hunter would not be in my plan.
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