jorgenswest

I think Meyer will be a contributor. I think we will see an AFL guy or two by midsummer. They need to get one more solid reliever to start the season. Fien is no longer reliable and doesn't have upside. I think they can get a solid younger reliever for Plouffe to add to May, Jepsen and Perkins innings 7-9. Maybe someone like Smith from the Brewers.

I had a note arbitration last year that Milone's steamer projection was 4.49. I don't see the full run difference. Doesn't really matter though. Not worth trying to locate steamer for the rest. This objective and respected projection shows that the Twins starters do not compare well with the rest of the central. The Twins have to hope they all outperform. That doesn't seem likely. I have Bill James projections but have not compared to rest of central yet. Maybe the Twins will look better.

Is it reasonable to have a thread in Vargas' future with the team without considering the dismal production at firstbase. The ranked 13th in the AL last year and have a player in decline at the position. Vargas is a potential solution.

i agree. Not going to happen. The Twins would rather lose more games than deal with the lack of relative productivity at first base.

Two projections out this far. Vargas is projected to have a slightly better OPS than Mauer by both(.002 and .010) in 2016. Is it possible that he will contribute more to the offense than Mauer as soon as next year? Could that difference be significant in 2017? Will there come a time that releasing Mauer and giving the job to Vargas leads to more wins? Of course they can avoid that possibility (likelihood?) by sending Vargas to Asia.

Vargas is absolutely the kind of depth they need in AAA. They can't waste the option. If he is tearing up AAA, he has trade value or maybe Mauer comes up with a phantom injury and he takes over at 1B. I can't see any downside of keeping him until spring 2017.

I think the majority of the 30+ relievers that sign multiyear deals will be signings that eventually hurt their team. They will be kept and their performance will not be at the level of playoff bound bullpen. Younger players will not get an opportunity. A single investment can be very good. Do the Twins have the skill to select the correct reliever who will produce for three years? In general, they need to sign players well above league average so their decline takes them to league average. Otherwise they get for the mediocre return of decline while paying for the previous level of performance in their prime.

Signing one of those three long term to be at the back end of the rotation would have been reasonable. The second signing needed to be a top of the rotation pitcher where the decline would have taken him to the middle. Maybe a guy like that wasn't going to sign with the Twins. Then they needed to use their prospects to get one in trade. Making more multiyear commitments to number 4/5 starters might help a team get to .500 but also makes it difficult to move beyond that. Their strength again this year is they have a lot of those guys. They have 8 guys that could pitch at the back end of many rotations. Teams aren't going to be willing to pay tens of millions for that player but it is a steal when you get that player for Sam Fuld. So they will use May to bolster the late innings. They will have Duffey and Berrios in AAA. Any injury to the other 5 and there will be no drop off in the rotation. It might even be an upgrade.

Did you read the original article and the link to Cameron's earlier study? The 11 that I added from 2013 averaged 38 innings per season. No one had an ERA under 3. Six of the 11 severely underperformed their contracts. Three of the 11 finished their contract with their teams and performed as expected (Peralta, Choate, Gorzelanny). If the argument is that using WAR or fangraph dollars as a one number summary doesn't work, they are based on FIP which is based on strikeouts, walks and home runs. Would you prefer ERA? WPA?

The risk in signing a 30+ reliever to a multiyear contract is that they will be mediocre and their contract will keep them on the team. Instead of giving the ball to younger stronger arms, they will keep giving the ball to the veteran with the declining strike out rate and velocity. Trade for a younger reliever with a lively arm. Pay up for a free agent on a one year deal. Don't pay for the multiyear decline of a free agent reliever. The odds are too great it won't pay off.

I would agree about the bullpen. However, it is very difficult to determine which 30+ free agent reliever will maintain their level of performance. Signing a free agent, particularly for multiple years, might add mediocrity to then pen with a contract that blocks the young relievers similar to the money they spent on mediocre starters. http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-8023-gambling-on-the-relief-market-simply-folly/ The best hope is that some of the young relievers are ready for the majors. The Twins might also see if they can get a younger impact reliever for Trevor Plouffe.

Steamer projections are available for 2016. Steamer uses the last three seasons of data to project the 2016 season. It is easy to write projections off as "guesses" but they are based on a significant amount of historical data. If interested you can read more about the various projection systems and rankings for 2014 here. Projected Twin starters with games started, ERA and their rank (compared to the 169 pitchers with 20 projected starts). I use ERA because it is projected performance that is based on previous year's peripherals. Phil Hughes 32, 4.20 #121 Ervin Santana 31, 4.34 #140 Kyle Gibson 29, 4.15 #117 Ricky Nolasco 19, 4.34 (#140) Tommy Milone 16, 4.10 (#112) Tyler Duffey 13, 4.19 (#121) Jose Berrios 11, 3.99 (#92) Comparing the 169 starters projected for at least 20 starts the median ERA is 3.90 in Ian Kennedy. The ERA's in the AL are generally higher. Last year the NL had a better league ERA by 0.10 so the median AL starter might be around 3.95 and the median NL starter around 3.85. The Twins do not fare well. The Twins have one pitcher with a projected performance that would fit a number 3 starter around the league median in Berrios. Gibson, Milone and Hughes look to be number 4 starters with Hughes on the fringe. Nolasco and Santana fit in with the number 5 starters. Trevor May's projected ERA of 3.49 is based on relief work. His outstanding 3.25 FIP last year leads to his solid ERA projection. What about the rest of the AL central? The Indians have some of the best starters in baseball. Kluber(3.02) and Carrasco(3.04) are clear number 1s. Salazar is a fringe number 1 ranking 29 with a 3.44 projection. Tomlin(3.82) is a solid number 3 and Bauer is a fringe #4 matching Hughes at 4.20. The Royals have two pitchers projected better than the median in Ventura (3.51) and Zimmer(3.84). Two others projected to be around the AL median in Duffy(3.93) and Medlin(4.00). The projection for Volquez is 4.27 which is in the midst of number 5 starters. Verlander(3.77) and Sanchez(3.84) top the projected median, but the Tigers run thin after those two. Norris(4.28), Boyd(4.28) and Farmer(4.75) all project to be number 5 starters or worse. I would expect the Tigers will add to their pitching staff before the start of 2016. The White Sox have the elite Chris Sale(2.82). Thankfully the Twins owned him last year. Quintana is projected well above the median at 3.70. Rodon might be a fringe #3 at 4.05. The other two Johnson(4.72) and Danks (4.75) ranked 165 and 167 of the 169 pitchers. The White Sox might add pitching also. The Twins have a problem. They have invested too much money in the bottom of their rotation. This type of performance was projected at the time of their signing. They can hope that Santana, Hughes and Nolasco outperform their projections. One might. It is very unlikely that all three will. The Tigers and White Sox have not invested the same kind of money into the bottom of their pitching staffs. The White Sox have one more year of money invested in Danks. The Twins have 2-4 more years invested into Nolasco, Santana and Hughes. Their contracts would make them very difficult to move. If May is included as a starter, the top five projected pitcher ERAs on the Twins next year are May, Berrios, Milone, Gibson and Duffy. Any chance the Twins will go with that rotation?

The Minnesota Twins have said that improving the bullpen is a very high priority this offseason. However, it is difficult to know which relievers were will be successful, will be worth their contract. Today, Jorgenwest provides some details about the success rates of multi-year contracts to relievers. Image courtesy of Jayne Kamin-Oncea, USA Today The Minnesota Twins have said that improving the bullpen is a very high priority this offseason. However, it is difficult to know which relievers were will be successful, will be worth their contract. Today, Jorgenwest provides some details about the success rates of multi-year contracts to relievers. Signing relievers to multi-year free agent deals is a risky proposition. Dave Cameron had these numbers in a study from 2010. I wondered if anything had changed since the study and the new free agency rules. There were 11 non-closer relievers signed prior to the 2013 season to multi-year deals. Jeremy Affeldt (2013-2015), 3 years, $18 million: $-6.6 million(Fangraphs) Mike Adams (2013-2014), 2 years, $12 million: $0.1 million(Fangraphs) Jason Grilli (2013-2014), 2 years, $6.75 million: $14.3 million(Fangraphs) Joel Peralta (2013-2014), 2 years, $6 million: $8.8 million(Fangraphs) Sean Burnett (2013-2014), 2 years, $8 million: $-0.5 million(Fangraphs) Randy Choate (2013-2015), 3 years, $7.5 million: $6.6 million(Fangraphs) Tom Gorzelanny (2013-2014), 2 years, $5.7 million: $7.3 million(Fangraphs) Jonathan Broxton (2013-2015), 3 years, $21 million: $4.9 million(Fangraphs) Kyuji Fujikawa (2013-2014), 2 years, $9.2 million: $1.1 million(Fangraphs) Brandon League (2013-2014), 3 years, $22.5 million: $-3.3 million(Fangraphs) Joakim Soria (2013-2014), 2 years, $8 million: $12.3 million(Fangraphs) Teams spent $124.65 million for 26 years of relievers. Their return on the investment was $45 million. Peralta and Gorzelanny were solid modest investments. Grilli had an all-star season as a closer. Soria pitched well when healthy, averaging 34 innings a season. As a group these relievers provided little value. They averaged 38 innings per year of mediocre relief. The same kind of relief the Twins have been able to find among the likes of Burton and Boyer. Do we have confidence the Twins can find the reliever that will by among the minority in this year's group and provide good value the next two or three season? I am not. I am not confident any team has the skill to find that value. The Twins need relievers. That is without question. The question is whether signing 30-something relievers in the free agent market is the answer. I think the Twins' dollars are better spent elsewhere. Go with the young players. Continue to sign guys like Boyer, Burton and Stauffer who will take a one-year deal. The Twins success rate with those guys is no worse than the success rate in Cameron's study or the 2013 group. It is also much easier to cut ties with a guy on a one-year deal than a guy just signed to three years and $15 million. If it doesn't work out, solid relievers can be found every July. View full article

Center fielders in the AL had an OPS of 738 last year. AL Catchers had an OPS of 678. Hicks is a useful player. His floor is a 4th OF/right handed half of a platoon. He will probably never hit right handed pitching well enough to be a corner OF. Murphy is a useful player. His floor looks to be average defense with more offense than the typical second catcher. He does need to bat enough this year to make sure than Suzuki's contract does not vest. Two guys that belong on major league rosters with talent on the fringe of being an everyday regular at their positions. Both have enough upside to hit at league average relative to their positions.

Catching is expensive. In a trade of a CF for a catcher, the centerfielder is going to be the better offensive player. That Hicks projects better offensively than his return at catcher should be expected. The trade is fair. They are not going to get Sanchez for Hicks. The Twins need catching a lot more than center field. Murphy helps. They still need catching.

Signing relievers to multi-year free agent deals is a risky proposition. Dave Cameron had these numbers in a study from 2010. I wondered if anything had changed since the study and the new free agency rules. There were 11 non-closer relievers signed prior to the 2013 season to multi year deals. Jeremy Affeldt (2013-2015), 3 years, $18 million: $-6.6 million(Fangraphs) Mike Adams (2013-2014), 2 years, $12 million: $0.1 million(Fangraphs) Jason Grilli (2013-2014), 2 years, $6.75 million: $14.3 million(Fangraphs) Joel Peralta (2013-2014), 2 years, $6 million: $8.8 million(Fangraphs) Sean Burnett (2013-2014), 2 years, $8 million: $-0.5 million(Fangraphs) Randy Choate (2013-2015), 3 years, $7.5 million: $6.6 million(Fangraphs) Tom Gorzelanny (2013-2014), 2 years, $5.7 million: $7.3 million(Fangraphs) Jonathan Broxton (2013-2015), 3 years, $21 million: $4.9 million(Fangraphs) Kyuji Fujikawa (2013-2014), 2 years, $9.2 million: $1.1 million(Fangraphs) Brandon League (2013-2014), 3 years, $22.5 million: $-3.3 million(Fangraphs) Joakim Soria (2013-2014), 2 years, $8 million: $12.3 million(Fangraphs) Teams spent $124.65 million for 26 years of relievers. Their return on the investment was $45 million. Peralta and Gorzelanny were solid modest investments. Grilli had an all star season as a closer. Soria pitched well when healthy averaging 34 innings a season. As a group these relievers provided little value. They averaged 38 innings per year of mediocre relief. The same kind of relief the Twins have been able to find among the likes of Burton and Boyer. Do we have confidence the Twins can find the reliever that will by among the minority in this year's group and provide good value the next two or three season? I am not. I am not confident any team has the skill to find that value. The Twins need relievers. That is without question. The question is whether signing 30 something reliever in the free agent market is the answer. I think the Twins dollars are better spent elsewhere. Go with the young players. Continue to sign guys like Boyer, Burton and Stauffer that will take a one year deal. The Twins success rate with those guys is no worse than the success rate in Cameron's study or the 2013 group. It is also much easier to cut ties with a guy on a one year deal than a guy they just signed to 3/15. If it doesn't work out, solid relievers can be found every July.

Minnesota had a league bottom 20 hits from the bench last year with a slash line of 171/224/256. Trade Plouffe? Sure if someone is foolish enough to give up a starting catcher. Is it necessary? Absolutely not. They need another bat on this team. They are gambling Park is that additional bat.

The Twins have two guys that are almost certain to be regulars, another 5 that project to contribute several years in the majors and a bunch of guys that should help in a role or from the bench. Arguing whether a projected bench guy should be 14 or 16 or 23 seems pointless. Instead it seems like it would be better to compare these guys to where they were a year ago and two years ago. How are the Twins doing in developing their assets?

Lots of pages are wasted on packages that can never happen. Every team feels the 40 man roster crunch. They can't take on more guys on the 40 than they move. They will just lose other players when DFA'd to get down to 40. Berrios isn't on the 40 and has significant value. The Twins need a starter that is better than league average. Berrios has the best chance in the organization to meet that need. I think the need for a top starter is greater than the need for a catcher. Other prospects not on the 40 have little or no time above A ball and do not add enough to a package. Dozier is the Twins best asset towards acquiring a catcher. Dozier for a solid catcher or Weiters for their round 1 pick. I think I would roll the dice with Weiters and give up the pick.

The Mets have a very good trade asset in young catching. Few teams have a similar asset. If they move Plawecki, it will be in a move that clearly makes next year's team better. They can do better for next year than a middle infield prospect with little time above AA. If they want to move Plawecki, they will have plenty of teams interested. They are losing Murphy. If they want a veteran they can look to Zobrist and Desmond. If they want to go with an unproven prospect, they have a younger prospect with better rankings in Dilson Herrera. Trading for Polanco makes little sense for the Mets. Dozier is the only fit if they can't get one of the free agents and want to go with a veteran.

I hope the Twins aren't trying to project the performance of Santana or Nunez or Escobar based on one season of data in which none of the three was a regular throughout the season. Projection should be based on 3-5 years. I would think based on that and age, Nunez would come out with little upside offensively or defensively. Santana's glove would certainly be better up the middle. Nunez would be a better fit at 3B. His value would increase with a Plouffe trade.

If the Brewers decide to bake him available, there should be several interested teams. I think they will get a top 50 prospect for him. The Twins would have Kepler and Berrios in the top 50.

I don't think the Twins should be shopping either player. Both can help the Twins to a successful season next year. They should listen to the interest of other teams and see if there is a good fit. Trading Dozier for a young catcher might hurt the win total next year but also be an important piece for several years. They have to consider that deal. The Twins bench and depth was awful last year. If keeping Plouffe allows increased depth and a better bat on the bench it helps the team. A rotation that sits Plouffe or Mauer more often might keep both stronger into September and give better daily bench options. They don't need to trade either player. They do need to improve catching and the relievers. That can be done without trading either.

I can't see anyone trading for Ervin Santana. He couldn't get a three year deal with what he has remaining if he were a free agent. Why would any team give up a player for him? They can spend the same money in free agency.