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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    If it means more mid inning pitching changes, it is an awful idea. If it means that guys like Randy Ruiz get a shot as a platoon player, I am all in. Before someone distracts from the point, I realize Randy Ruiz is out of baseball and almost 40. Had he played in the 60s or 70s he would have been a major leaguer. There is no space for he right handed half of a platoon with the 12 and 13 man pitching staffs. The Orilles had an 8-9 man staff in the early 70s. They filled the bench with platoon guys like Merv Rettenmund, Terry Crowley, Al Bumbry andElrod Hendricks. I am not sure if Bill Robinson has a career without getting his first shot as a right handed corner bench guy. Adding players to the roster without having the 8 man bullpen become the norm seems impossible. It can only happen in combination with limiting pitching changes somehow. I am all for a max of one change per inning.
  2. jorgenswest
    This is how the World Champion Royals did it. Entering age 25, Holland was a mediocre AAA reliever with poor command. Entering age 28, Davis was a failed starter. Herrera was a 22 year old with a big arm. At 34, Madden signed a minor league free agent contract after missing the three previous seasons. At 29, Morales signed a minor league free agent contract having posted ERAs above 4 every season since 2007. Entering age 29, Hochever was a failed starter. Failed starters, minor league free agent contracts and hoping on younger big arms with questionable command is exactly how the Twins are doing it.
  3. jorgenswest
    The Twins should not give up on him as a starter. When they moved him out of the rotation last year his FIP was essentially the same as it was in 2014. It was a BABIP well into the 400s that was the difference between the two years. Add his relief work and he ended the season with a FIP of 3.28. The insanely high BABIP last year had to mess with his mind and confidence. The Twins were wise to get him out of the rotation. They would be unwise to give up on him as a starter knowing that his peripherals as a starter were essentially the same as 2014.
  4. jorgenswest
    I hope this is the thinking. That would mean that next year they will have 12.85 that has come off the books and the payroll number for 2017 start at 118 million rather than 110 million.
  5. jorgenswest
    Primarily pinch hit? I am having difficulty communicating. I think the Twins agree with you about pinch hitting though. The Astros probably do not. They had 6 pinch hit home runs last year. The Twins had 1(Sano). The Astros found a spot for a guy like Preston Tucker on the roster. He was a young corner OF. They used him to pinch hit. They platooned him. He had an option so they sent him out once when they had a roster crunch. This is the kind of guy I hope the Twins can roster rather than two utility men.
  6. jorgenswest
    Twins pinch hitters were 9/71 for a .126 batting average last year. Their bench of a back up catcher, two utility players and a back up center fielder didn't give them any options. They also had a 13 man pitching staff for a while with a 3 man bench (Santana was optioned to AAA). Can they do better? I hope so. They can back up SS, 2B, CF and C with two guys in Santana and Murphy. Neither is a pinch hitter. There will be one or two more spots on the bench depending on when they have a 13 man pitching staff. With one guaranteed spot left it has to be the pinch hitter. Is Nunez the best guy they can find to fit that role? They can keep Nunez in favor of Santana but now the 4th OF needs to be a CF. it is unlikely he will be a useful pinch hitter. Bench options Murphy, Santana, Corner OF/bat Murphy, Nunez, 4th OF that can play CF like Robinson or Fuld They will have a fourth guy on the bench. That guy better have options or he will need to be DFA'd when they need a 13th pitcher. Nunez is acceptable in that role until that time comes. Nunez may be acceptable. Pinch hitting at a clip of 9/71 is not.
  7. jorgenswest
    Nunez isn't a very useful utility player. It was his inability to be a utility player that led to the Yankees designating him for assignment. He plays a poor SS and probably a little better 3B. Anywhere else is much worse. The Twins use a 4 man bench, Santana is a better defender at SS, CF and 2B. They need a back up catcher. They need an OF preferably one that can bring some left handed power not found on this team. I hope Arcia steps up. I don't think Nunez fits any of those roles and that leaves one spot for him. The last spot on the roster is best used by players with options. They can shuttle Vargas, Polanco, Kepler and a 13th pitcher as needed in that spot.
  8. jorgenswest
    Nunez is a replacement level SS/3B that could not keep a utility job with the Yankees due to his inability to play 2B. His ability to make contact, run the bases and play SS at a poor level give him value. He has value to the Twins if they trade Plouffe. If not, it is hard to see how he will make it through the year without being DFA'd. Given a four man bench of Murphy (or Suzuki), Santana, Arcia and Nunez, he has the least to offer. He would be the first to be DFA'd with the need for a 13th pitcher. The Twins would better off having another bat and hopefully one with options that can be sent down. I would rather see Vargas on the bench riding the shuttle between AAA and the majors than Nunez.
  9. jorgenswest
    Career strikeout rate dropped below 30% with last year's rate of 26.8%. Walk rates remain above 10% and fly ball rates remain above 50%. He can't afford any more drop in strike out rate and remain valuable as a pitcher. His xFIP of 4.27 last year shouldn't be ignored as an ERA projector. It would be foolish to give him 3 years. He will soon pitch his last good season and that may have been 2015. I am with Seth as far as the one year deal. I would not go beyond.
  10. jorgenswest
    Why do they need more than one utility man? Is it a greater need than three catchers? I think it is less. The chance of an injury after a late inning substitution is very small. Wouldn't another bat on the bench, particularly one with options, be more valuable than insuring an infielder replacement should an injury occur after a late inning substitution? Worst case and that injury occurs, they can play Rosario at 2B or Plouffe at SS for an inning. I believe you are correct in your projection. I wasn't writing what I think the Twins will do. It is what I think they should do. They had the worst hitting off the bench in baseball last year. They can fix that with more corner guys and fewer utility guys on the bench. If they start with a bench of Murphy, Santana and Arcia they have every position covered. The fourth guy on the bench can be given to a pinch hitter. Ideally a player that has an option left so they can go to a 13 man pitching staff when necessary. It will be necessary at some point. At that time Nunez seems like the least valuable guy and the bench and the logical one to go.
  11. jorgenswest
    I think the Twins have an opportunity to build a better bench utilizing Danny Santana's ability to play middle infield and centerfield. If Plouffe remains a Twin, it is hard to see the value in Eduardo Nunez. Santana is the better glove at any up the middle position. Santana is at least an equal option to pinch run. While Nunez has the better bat, if that is his purpose the Twins can do better by finding a better bat from a corner player. The Twins were at the bottom of the pinch hitting ranks last year and that can be improved if they don't have both Santana, Nunez with the back up catcher. There is a chance that Nunez would not be claimed and by an option in AAA if injury occurs. Teams might not want to pay the arb award he will earn. Even if he is lost, Polanco offers a more than adequate option when needed.
  12. jorgenswest
    Eddie Rosario had the teams best percentage of taking an extra base on a hit (2 bases on a single, 3 on a double). He did it at a rate of 61%. League average is 38%. Twins 37%. The Bill James Handbook also had Rosario as the Twins best base runner with their measure. I don't know about the reliability of the two measures but they confirm what my untrained eye saw in Rosario's ability to take an extra base last summer. He reminded me of Cesar Tovar.
  13. jorgenswest
    Some teams value a guy who can hit righties with a good arm in the corner. I think the Twins do also. He played through two injuries in winter ball last year and the back injury persisted. He then injured a hip early in the season. He tried to play through and I think the injuries to the core altered his mechanics. Working in Florida the winter rather than going home to play winter ball is the best path towards getting back on his career path.
  14. jorgenswest
    It is difficult to measure how much his back and hip trouble impacted his ability to hit. He battled through two injuries last winter in the Venezuelan league. The second was persistent back trouble. He then had trouble with his hip early in the season. Any injury to a hitter's core can effect the swing and particularly the power. Did the injuries significantly alter his mechanics? Can it be fixed? I am glad to hear he is in Florida working hard rather than winter ball. Hopefully he enters spring training with a healthy core and improved mechanics.
  15. jorgenswest
    The Twins need a left handed power bat. They need Arcia.
  16. jorgenswest
    Our understanding of WAR is very different. WAR is position based and as a LF Escobar is below replacement level. His WAR last year has a lot of LF time. I would only look at a player's WAR as a position split. Over the last two years Escobar has played 163 games at SS (157 starts). As a SS he is credited with 4.8 fWAR valued at 37.3 million. Desmond is credited with 5.6 fWAR over the last two years but he needed 309 games to get to that level. He wasn't close to Escobar's contribution while playing SS. On a per game basis only Tulowitzki has been credited with more fWAR as a shortstop over the last two years. Lindor and Correa were also better in their single season of play last year.
  17. jorgenswest
    The Twins have an opportunity to utilize Danny Santana's versatility on the bench. Santana combined with Suzuki give the Twins coverage up the middle. The corners are more than adequately covered. The remaining two spots must go to bats that can pinch hit for Escobar and Murphy. I am hoping Arcia performs well in the spring and earns one of those spots. The other spot needs to go a guy with options that can be juggled when a 13th pitcher is needed. If Plouffe stays, I don't see how Nunez is an asset on the bench. They might be able to move him through waivers with the contract he earns in arbitration. If not, they can turn to Polanco if an injury up the middle occurs. Most importantly, Santana ability to play 2B, SS and CF enables them to address a bench that provided very little offense last year.
  18. jorgenswest
    The strength of the rotation is the depth. They might not have a pitcher post an ERA+ better than league average but instead have 8 that are reasonably close. Guys that perform as number 4 starters may not be enough to get to 88 wins but they are significantly better than replacement level. The key is the young power arms coming up in the system. A bullpen of Perkins, Jepsen, May combined with Burdi and Meyer taking a big step forward can make this a playoff caliber staff.
  19. jorgenswest
    The 4% should be discounted. for example it is 40 points of batting average. We have also seen how defense has helped the Royals. It is important to avoid any players who cut into the 62% that are almost always outs. When the Twins had Kubel, Willingham, Colabello, Parmelee and Arcia in the outfield a few years back, they weren't getting those 62%. Dozier is likely getting most of the 62% and some of that extra 4%. The outfield of 2013-2014 was a liability and a dilemma. Dozier isn't either.
  20. jorgenswest
    Arcia is a key. The Twins need that left handed power bat.
  21. jorgenswest
    Yet they both project to provide a better OPS than Mauer. Back to Gibson... I think the Twins will regret trading off their younger starters when injuries or decline hit Santana and Nolasco and they are calling up Pat Dean for a start. Keep Gibson unless a trade nets a good starting pitching prospect.
  22. jorgenswest
    I don't think the Twins should be trying to move any of their cost controlled starters. Their strength last year and this year is the number of pitchers that can step in and pitch at number 4 or 5 starter level. Many teams when faced with injury have to throw a replacement level pitcher whose performance isn't near that level. The difference between the Tigers and the Twins last year may have been that depth. The Tigers needed 37 starts from Greene (6.88), Lobstein (5.93) and Boyd (6.57). The Twins had much better depth in May and Duffey. They will need at least 7 and maybe 8 starters with double digit starts next year. They can't place 5 guys in the rotation and feel they can trade the rest away. I would only seek to trade Nolasco, Hughes or Santana because their age makes them more likely to be injured and the contract relief will be valuable when trying to add players in the summer or next winter.
  23. jorgenswest
    I do agree this is a big year for Meyer. I don't think last year was a flame out. At the time he was removed from the rotation his FIP was essentially the same as it was in 2014. It ended much better than 2014 at 3.28. The difference in the two seasons early on was an insanely high BABIP that was far out of line with his career. I don't think the Twins handled it well as they tried to have him make adjustments that may not have been necessary. I expect he will be a valuable part of the staff by midseason.
  24. jorgenswest
    I echo and add that his FIP was very good last year and the early BABIP of .420 was not in line with his career and had to mess with his head.
  25. jorgenswest
    At 500 innings there isn't a better gauge. It takes three full seasons of starting to get to that point. At 200 innings, SIERA is a little better at estimating future ERA than FIP and xFIP and significantly better than ERA. Short of 200, none are very reliable. That Milone has maintained the performance for 600 innings is significant and sets him far apart from Diamond. In 2012 they had identical 3.93 FIPs and future projections based on that performance would be similar. Milone backed it up with 400 more innings of performance and Diamond did not. There is no comparison any longer.
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