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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    The Twins would have been wise to have Sano taking ground balls in the spring. They also would have been wise to have Mauer or Park taking some balls in the outfield. Positional flexibility will always be an asset over a long season. Molitor may learn as a manager to stay away from absolutes like Sano is a right fielder or Santana is our shortstop. He can think and hope but he should know the season is too long and unpredictable to state absolutely. It is incredibly difficult to project recovery time, so they ought to have Sano start taking ground balls now. It is not going to mess him up. It is simply extra work taking ground balls. Cuddyer said it perfect on the broadcast when he spoke about not thinking of himself as a third basemen or right fielder but rather a team member ready to help the team wherever needed.
  2. jorgenswest
    I think Murphy's skills as a receiver and Gibson's ability to pitch in the lower part of the strike zone are a good match. If Gibson isn't getting the bottom of the strike zone, he needs to bring his pitches up and will not be as successful. I hope Molitor keeps these two paired for a few more starts.
  3. jorgenswest
    It was a poorly placed feed to Dozier. Maybe Nunez knew there was no chance so his feed didn't matter.
  4. jorgenswest
    Two ground balls that could have double plays. A very poorly played ball in right field. This is a really bad defense and the Angels found the two weakest spots on defense in the first inning.
  5. jorgenswest
    Relief pitcher statistics are inconsistent due to the small sample over a season. One season isn't enough to be confident that the numbers represent well the true talent. When the numbers change more often from season to season it is easy to jump to the conclusion that their skill level is inconsistent when it probably is just random. As for Pressly, any assessment the Twins make at this point would have to come from the eye of their trained staff. There will be some information in the pitch level data related to velocity and movement reasonably soon that might indicate a change in skill level. Midseason a change in strike out, walk and ground ball rates might indicate a change in skill. It will take multiple seasons worth of data to be confident in some of the more often used statistics. Watch the velocity, the movement, the effectiveness of each pitch. Has he improved a pitch? Has he changed his pitch mix? That will be the first hope in a change of skill level other than the eye of someone watching him in practice and in games.
  6. jorgenswest
    Murphy doesn't shake up the roster. Trading Plouffe or Dozier would shake up the roster. Trading top young players or prospects for an established player with some years of team control would shake up the roster. Firing Molitor would shake up the roster. I am not advocating for a shake up but those moves would do it. Signing a replacement level aging outfielder to a AAA contract is a meaningless move. If management thinks otherwise, they are clueless. If they compound it by exposing a young player to waivers they are beyond clueless.
  7. jorgenswest
    I am OK with going younger, but readiness can't be determined. It just isn't possible to be ready to hit major league pitching while facing AAA pitching. We can just expect that they will have dominated at a level over a good portion of a season. If a team believes in their young players they need to be patient. It can take 1000-1500 plate appearances. Some of the key young players on this team are just starting their clock.
  8. jorgenswest
    I suppose they could have signed Tony Sipp and Joakim Soria. They could have then put May in the rotation and Nolasco in relief while waiving Tonkin and non tendering Fien. All that happens and I think they are still 0-6.
  9. jorgenswest
    The Twins bullpen has pitcher 13 2/3 innings and has given up 6 runs which puts them somewhere in the middle by performance. The Twins starters have pitched 19 innings and given up 9 runs which also puts them in the middle. The Twins offense has scored 9 runs in 4 games which is 1 run better than the Angels but not anyone else.
  10. jorgenswest
    A take on outfield defense from Ben Lindbergh http://grantland.com/the-triangle/2015-mlb-kansas-city-royals-san-diego-padres-outfield-defense-lessons/ Re-examining the defensive spectrum by Jeff Zimmerman http://www.hardballtimes.com/re-examining-wars-defensive-spectrum/
  11. jorgenswest
    The Twins need at least one guy to back up at SS and 2B. Santana and Nunez are similar in that they can both fill that role. They are different from each other as well as different from Denny Hocking, Nick Punto and Jamey Carroll. The Twins and most teams need a bench that can fill the following roles. Back up catcher. Back up 2B/SS Back up CF Pinch run Left handed bat Right handed bat Both players can tick several of those boxes. The question is whether the Twins need some of those boxes ticked in multiple ways at the expense of a better bat. Can the two players at least be described as redundant?
  12. jorgenswest
    I think it is better to look at RF defense as a team and then look at the individual contributions. The Twins right field defense ranked 17th-22nd in the various measures. Hunter contributed 72% of the innings and Rosario 18%. Robinson, Hicks, Arcia and Kepler combined for 10%. Overall the defense in right field was adequate but not an asset.
  13. jorgenswest
    The Twins are paying Santana for games like tonight. A game that a veteran pitcher takes leadership of this team and shuts down the Royals and stops this losing streak. Will he step up?
  14. jorgenswest
    I think the Twins could have made a different decision about the bench in the winter. They can't really change it up now. As a side, the decision to construct this bench will make it more difficult to go to 13 pitchers. A decision to go to 13 pitchers and reducing the bench by one will expose Arcia, Nunez or Santana to waivers. I guess they could theoretically option Sano, Buxton, Park or Rosario for a 13th pitcher. That doesn't seem very practical.
  15. jorgenswest
    For some context... In 2015, the Twins bench had 126 plate appearances. That was the lowest number in the AL. The median number of plate appearances during games from the bench in the AL was 210. Tampa Bay was first in the AL with 397 plate appearances. I suppose all of the capitalization above was meant to make a point about my severe misunderstanding of the AL and bench use. I prefer to go to the data rather than capitalized generalizations. To me, the data shows that the Twins utilization of their bench was not typical of AL teams in 2015.
  16. jorgenswest
    The Twins chose to keep Nunez and Santana though Santana gives them coverage at 6 positions. He can also pinch run. They could have looked to improve the hitting off the bench. They chose not to address that need opting for flexibility instead. Not every team would make this choice. The Twins might look at it is injury insurance. Though Dozier will play nearly every day he may get injured. They might look at it as protection against Escobar not hitting. In either of those cases Nunez is an asset assuming Polanco tanks in AAA. Another team might look at it and see Santana's versatility and Polanco in AAA. They might see Sano as an option at 3B. They might look assess their failure to pinch hit in 2015. They might go into winter looking for a real option for a bat on the bench. Ryan chose to go with the flexibility Nunez offers over a bat. It could be the right call. There are 160 games left to show that keeping both Nunez and Santana offer real in game value to the team.
  17. jorgenswest
    Adding... Sano was 0/29. He did have a couple of hits at the height but off the plate inside or outside. Mike Trout over his career has more difficulty with that part of the strike zone. It takes a very good pitcher to successfully and reliably locate the ball in the top third. Miss by a few inches and the ball is in the zone where Sano and many others crush the ball. Another addition... Sano has seen 6 pitches in the upper third of the strike zone this season (according to Brooks Baseball). He has put three of them in play and is 0/3.
  18. jorgenswest
    The start of the season makes it more obvious, but wouldn't a handful of games of data be far too small to point to a trend? I would think you might be able to look at strike outs, walk and fly balls in 5-6 starts from a pitcher and see if there is a trend pointing to a different skill level. A batter might need 30 games for those same measures. Perhaps I don't know what meant by a trend. If it means a general direction in which a skill is changing, I don't think a few games, a week or probably even a month is enough to point to any direction.
  19. jorgenswest
    Thanks for the research.
  20. jorgenswest
    Thanks for the story. These young men have a great place to play ball.
  21. jorgenswest
    AAA will matter if he doesn't produce. He has produced every year. The Twins have responded by advancing him every year. The only thing that matters now is how well he handles AAA. Success in AAA will lead to opportunity in the majors.
  22. jorgenswest
    I hope he gets off to a good start. He may get a chance in Fien's role with a good start.
  23. jorgenswest
    A DH who can put up an RC+ of 120 or better is a major league player. In spite of the increasing strikeouts, Walker has been able to maintain that level of production. When he produces at that level in AAA over a season, an opportunity in the majors will arrive. The prospect rankings or projections really don't matter. The Twins have steadily moved him up the ladder and Walker has steadily produced. Let's see what he does with his AAA opportunity this year.
  24. jorgenswest
    Thanks for the story. These young men have a great place to play ball.
  25. jorgenswest
    From reading above, the Twins have constructed their bench correctly choosing positional flexibility rather than hitting ability. If not catcher, the only other spot to pinch hit is Buxton or Escobar. Let's hope that both prove it is unnecessary. I am not sure I disagree. I am certain that this was conscious decision on the part of Twins management in constructing the roster. I think other teams might value a bat. As for the catcher spot, the Rays pinch hit for thir catcher in over 40 of their games. In two cases, three catchers were used with the position being pinch hit for twice (September roster). They pinch hit three times more often than Molitor and were much more successful driving in 52 runs compared to the Twins 11. They made a different decision about their bench. I don't know which leads to more wins.
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