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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Does Molitor have so little confidence in his right handed pinch hitting options that he sees Suzuki as a better option? If that is the case, they might need to rethink the bench. Pinch hitting for the Twins was awful last year. Pinch hitters put up a slash line of 171/224/256. Molitor had little confidence and went to a pinch hitter less than any other AL manager. It is a nice luxury to have two utility men. If neither can be counted on to pinch hit for Suzuki late in the game, perhaps it is a luxury that they can not afford. Do the Twins need a right handed bat on the bench they can count on in high leverage late inning opportunities? Maybe facing a lefty late in games doesn't come up enough. Maybe it is more likely that the need for an extra utility man will surface. This is the bench the Twins chose long before spring training started. So far I would have preferred to see a better right handed bat than a second utility man/ pinch runner.
  2. jorgenswest
    Posted this elsewhere... Twins franchise record for strike outs is 1430. Everyone strikes out more often in this era. I wondered how the Twins compare relative to league. 2013 set the record for most strike outs as well as strike out rate relative to AL. The Twins strike out rate of 23% was 16.4% above league average rate. The top (or is it bottom) 5 Twin teams. 2013 +16.4% 1982 +15.6% 1973 +13.8% 1997 + 7.8% 2014 + 7.7% The Senators stand out for strike outs just prior to coming to Minnesota and posted rates relative to league above the +16.4% in 1959 and 1960. From 2004 to 2012 the Twins batters struck out less than league average. After 1 game in 2016 they are 13.2% above league average.
  3. jorgenswest
    2013 set the record for most strike outs as well as strike out rate relative to AL. The Twins strike out rate of 23% was 16.4% above league average rate. The top (or is it bottom) 5 Twin teams. 2013 +16.4% 1982 +15.6% 1973 +13.8% 1997 + 7.8% 2014 + 7.7% The Senators stand out for strike outs just prior to coming to Minnesota and posted rates relative to league above the +16.4% in 1959 and 1960. From 2004 to 2012 the Twins batters struck out less than league average. After 1 game in 2016 they are 13.2% above league average.
  4. jorgenswest
    2013 - 1430 2014 and 2015 are second and third. I would guess several other teams have set franchise record in the last 5 years. It is more work but I wonder what is the Twin record relative to percent above league average.
  5. jorgenswest
    I believe Fien has an option. He should be in AAA showing the Twins he is closer to the 30% strike out guy than the 20%. With his fly ball rate, he can't survive without a better strike out rate.
  6. jorgenswest
    Either Rosario will continue to play well or the playing time will land with Kepler or possibly Arcia. The Twins will get better production from left field than Rosaro's projection. The same probably can be said at SS with Nunez, Santana or Polanco ready. Someone will do better than that projection and emerge as the starter. The Twins have too much depth at both spots. They will end up with better than replacement level production.
  7. jorgenswest
    Chris Tillman an opening day? Tillman's projections from ZIPS and Steamer are essentially identical to Minnesota's opening day starter. Tillman's projected to be very slightly better. In fact, the Orioles are more similar to the Twins in projection than any other team. They project almost the same in both runs scored and runs allowed.
  8. jorgenswest
    Thanks Seth. The best part of TD is the quality coverage of the minor leagues.
  9. jorgenswest
    Logan Lombana is one of the new guys in the bullpen. Drafted last year in the 25th round from Long Beach State. Baseball America, in their review of the draft, listed Lombana's above average 85-87 mph slider with Jay's slider as the best secondary pitch drafter by the Twins. They also listed him as the best Twins late round pick crediting his lower slot and quality secondary stuff.
  10. jorgenswest
    I didn't think he was a comp to Tonkin. I just thought that he might be a better fit.The pen might make more use of a left handed pitcher. Many left handed specialists don't surface by age 26. There might be a chance of a Craig Breslow type career.
  11. jorgenswest
    He might be fit the Twins roster better than Tonkin. Hand hasn't been very successful as a starter, but he is just 26 and has done well against lefties. He might be worth a claim or even a deal for a low level minor prospect. http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=9111&position=P&season=2015
  12. jorgenswest
    Searching for similar 23 year old seasons (players with double, triples, home runs, few walks and lots of strike outs for their era) I came up with Juan Samuel, Bobby Tolan, Jean Segura, Carl Crawford and Christian Guzman.
  13. jorgenswest
    I don't think there are any numbers from 23 innings of use that anyone should be interested in. FIP is based in home run, strike out, walk and hit by pitch rates. Home run rates need a tremendous sample to stabilize. The number is nonsense at 23 innings or even a full season of innings from a reliever. Tonkin's three years of time in the majors is enough sample to consider stake out rate (19.3%), walk rate(7.7%) and ground ball rate (48.8%). His xFIP(3.96) which is based on strike outs, walks and fly balls could be interesting in his three year sample.
  14. jorgenswest
    Why last place? The Royals are coming off a World Series and the starting rotations of the other three teams are superior. In the case of the Indians and White Sox far superior. I would take Sale, Quintana, Rodon, Kluber, Carrasco, Salazar, Verlander, Sanchez and Zimmerman over any of the Twins 5 to start the season. Does the bullpen compare any better?
  15. jorgenswest
    Will the league catch up to Duffey if he continues to go with two pitches? Without looking at spring data, the Twins staff can assess if his third pitch is ready. If not, it seems like the best thing to do is send him to AAA and have him refine that pitch. The Twins really need to assess Duffey's readiness in this decision. Nolasco provides depth that gives the Twins the opportunity to give Duffey more time. If Nolasco gets that chance, it is on him to perform and prevent real runs rather than those attributed to his FIP or xFIP.
  16. jorgenswest
    I appreciate the data from Parker and Willihammer. I think we can wait and take a look at the end of April. The 2016 data can be compared to how he began other seasons. Velocity numbers don't need a large sample to give a reliable picture of change. If there is a significant difference in a month it can be attributed to underlying injury or decline.
  17. jorgenswest
    Baseball America wrote In the prospect handbook... "he alarmed rival scouts with throwing problems that seemed to worsen. After playing mostly first base in college, Walker's mechanical issues threaten to make him a defensive liability even in left field."
  18. jorgenswest
    Rogers will start in bullpen http://m.mlb.com/news/article/168647328/twins-option-jr-graham-taylor-rogers
  19. jorgenswest
    Parker and Willihammer - Thanks Hopefully one month from now he is centered around 93.
  20. jorgenswest
    Perkins velocity is way down from last year. He averaged 93.7 last year. Today he wasn't hitting 90. Anyone have split data on his velocity last year? I wonder if April was lower or if there was a drop after first injury. If Perkins stays around 90 he will become an expensive LOOGY and the Twins will be hoping on some very young arms.
  21. jorgenswest
    Keeping Quentin for a time allows them to see if Park is ready.
  22. jorgenswest
    I like the depth in AAA. Kepler and Polanco can come up and start in several positions. Vargas can tear it up and force his way onto the roster. Catching as a whole has more depth with Murphy, Hicks and Centino replacing Herrmann and Fryer. Berrios and Duffey give depth and upside when a starter is needed and there are some strong arms very close to ready in the bullpen.
  23. jorgenswest
    2015 Base running data First to third Mauer 6/20 Nunez 4/9 Santana 5/11 Second to home Mauer 5/13 Nunez 5/6 Santana 5/9 First to home Mauer 3/7 Nunez 1/2 Santana 3/4 Bases taken/Outs Mauer 24/4 Nunez 10/3 Santana 12/0 Net gain Mauer -2 Nunez +4 Santana +13 Rosario had the Twins best base running numbers but Santana was very good. I think Mauer's performance at the plate has to be weighed. If he hits like 2015, I would be more inclined to use Santana and then play Sano or Plouffe at 1B.
  24. jorgenswest
    I have serious questions about whether Nolasco's difference between FIP and ERA is based on 10 years of bad luck or rather his skill in pitching with runners on base. His career splits with runners on base are very different than with bases empty. Maybe he only has bad luck with runners on base or maybe it is a skill. If it is a skill, it is one that shows up in ERA and not FIP. In either case, the starting rotation is the spot. He is the last pitcher I want coming in with runners on base. I would suggest the Twins start him and give him a very short leash with runners on base innings 5 and later. Let's see how he does his first 8 starts. If he doesn't perform well, release him and go with Duffey or Berrios. If Nolasco can pitch as a mid rotation starter this year, it will go a long way toward a successful season.
  25. jorgenswest
    The best possible case for the Twins is Nolasco contributing in the starting rotation. His start today is very encouraging.
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