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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Rosario and his ability to hit enough is the key. They need his defense in LF. If he is in LF and Buxton in CF, the OF defense overall should be better than average even with Sano or Arcia in RF. I would be very concerned about an OF with Rosario in CF and Arcia and Sano on the corners. There would be too many long innings, short starts and calls to the bullpen.
  2. jorgenswest
    I hope the Twins give Graham an opportunity to start at AAA this year and begin planning for that in the spring. After being drafted in 2011, he made it to AA in 2012 and was successful. His injury in 2013 certainly derailed his career. It is possible that enough time has passed and he can find the form that made him a top prospect. He has an option. I hope the Twins will utilize that option to see if he can regain his form as a starter. Perhaps coming to camp in great shape is the first step in that process.
  3. jorgenswest
    Interesting but... Players sent down to the minors need to remain down for 10 days or the equivalent of the next 3 series. If this could somehow be successful, the Twins would need to do it for a longer space than one series. If they send down Park to call up Kepler for a series. Park can not return when Kepler is sent down after the series is over. So maybe the call up Walker but if they want to return him after the series neither Park or Kepler would be available to call up. So maybe they look at the next 3-4 series and select the best guy. I would guess the differences in competition would even things out though. That length time span also wipes out the idea that they bring up a player when they are hot. There isn't evidence that a player who has been hot for a week or two is more likely to be hot in the next two weeks than a player who hasn't been hot. With the 10 day stay mandate, the Twins are probably better off sticking with whoever they assess is the better player.
  4. jorgenswest
    Target Field is a hitter's park. It does depress home runs to right field but that shouldn't impact Murphy. http://espn.go.com/fantasy/baseball/story/_/page/mlbdk2k16_parkfactors/which-parks-most-least-favorable-fantasy-baseball-hitters-pitchers-mlb Murphy doesn't have many major league plate appearances. Four hundred spread over three years will not lead to a reliable projection or establish skill level. We can only rely on the talents of the Twins scouts in assessing his potential with the bat.
  5. jorgenswest
    The Twins need strong defense behind the plate and every pitcher would benefit. Assuming the split is closer to 50/50 than 20/80, how do you think they might split the time? Agreeing that it is Molitor's decision, he could divide the time based on opposing pitcher and who might be better at the plate or divide the time based on matching with Twins starting pitcher. I would assume he would enter with some kind of plan that would be adjusted as both perform.
  6. jorgenswest
    Does Fien have options? Since 2013, strike out rates have fallen from 30% to 20% to 16%. He is a fly ball pitcher that won't be successful without the strike outs. Looking at his pitch mix, he stopped throwing the change up (as fangraphs recognized it) after 2013 though it was his best pitch in value per 100. Was that pitch getting more swings and misses or setting up his fastball? You can see a change in both his contact and swinging strike rates since 2013. His velocity hasn't changed. Perhaps he changed his mix in hopes of limiting home runs. If Fien has options, it might be worth giving him some time at AAA to see if he can find the mix that led to more swings and misses, less contact and ultimately a strike out rate almost double his rate of 2015.
  7. jorgenswest
    Last year there were no other options once Pinto went down with a concussion in spring training. I think Molitor will give Murphy a larger share to start the season. He has stated that they have to be better at preventing stolen bases this year. The pitchers are a big piece of that puzzle, but all will be helped if Murphy has a quicker, stronger and more accurate arm. I do wonder if it would be wise to tie a catcher to a starting pitcher trying to match skill sets. Suzuki was once very good at limiting wild pitches and passed balls. Which starting pitchers need that skill? Which starting pitchers need more help with stolen bases? Which need more help getting a low pitch called a strike? Who needs to get the high pitch called a strike? Which catcher is better at optimizing the pitch sequencing? The starting pitchers and catchers bring varying skill sets. Is there anything to gain by trying to match those sets?
  8. jorgenswest
    The team is better and deeper with Jackson. Masterson and Duensng may help as long as they are willing to cut ties if they don't pitch well. That same statement should be made with Nolasco and Fien in mind. I would pass on Stubbs. Jackson is worth the difference in salary.
  9. jorgenswest
    Evidence that Perkins can't get out lefties will come when opposing teams routinely bring a left handed pinch hitter off the bench to replace a right handed batter.
  10. jorgenswest
    I was drawn in by the statement "Perkins can't get lefties out" That is very definitive and damning statement. If the statement had been "I wouldn't count on him being a weapon versus lefties" it would have been much easier to ignore the use of the sample to support the statement.
  11. jorgenswest
    I don't have evidence either way. How could I from my couch, computer or seat at the game? You absolutely can not use slash stats. They require a very large sample. Strike out rates, ground ball rates, fly ball rates and eventually walk rates can be examined but not in a single year of the lefty v lefty reliever split. A team would have to go to the pitch level data. They then should normalize for quality of batter faced from each side. It could be true that Perkins can't get out lefties. That determination might come from video study, pitch level data beyond our access and the trained eye of a major league staff. I need to try to keep from being drawn in to these conversations. Understanding the impact of sample in a data set isn't trivial and we are bombarded on broadcasts with meaningless data in small samples. Spring training numbers are coming soon. It is going to be difficult to stay out of these types of conversations.
  12. jorgenswest
    Perkins and splits. Do we realize that it takes around 600 plate appearance or more for pitcher slash stats to become reliable? It would take most of Perkin's career to get there. Perkins lefty v lefty split would also be highly skewed by the quality of left handed hitter he would face at the end of the game. Only the better lefties would not be removed for a pinch hitter. Strike rates stabilize early. Walk rates stabilize around 170 plate appearance without a split. It would take Perkins three years to get past that level at lefty v lefty. If we go back three years, his strike out rate v lefties is 24.4% (26.6 overall) and walk rate is 4.6 (3.5 overall). That difference might be explained by the difference in quality of left handed hitter he is facing at the end of the game. It might that last year's numbers were randomly skewed badly to the left handed side. It can happen. In a small sample a mediocre hitter can hit .350 in September. Not meaningful. Just random. If the Twins assess that Perkins can't get out lefties, I sure hope they do it based on their trained eye. The data is not near enough sample to support that statement.
  13. jorgenswest
    It takes a pretty large sample for slash stats to be meaningful and reliable. I don't see how such a definitive statement can be made based on that data. What are his career numbers? Three years of lefty v lefty splits as a reliever might be enough to look at strike out rates and walk rates. Nothing more. The reality is that a left handed closer is only going to see the best left handed hitters at the end of the game. Other will be pulled for a pinch hitter. His sample too small to be reliable is likely to be skewed with a much greater ratio of the better left handed batters. It might be true that Perkins can not get left handed hitters out. One season slash stats of what is certain to be fewer than 100 plate appearances skewed by game situation can not possibly support that statement.
  14. jorgenswest
    Signing Quentin keeps them from looking for a younger option with more upside. I heard the same no risk line when they signed Kubel and Bartlett. That same winter and spring JD Martinez was available as the Astros DFA'd outrighted and released him. The Twins could have been the first team to claim him. Instead they filled spring spots with Kubel and Bartlett. It was particularly frustrating their second opportunity in March when it was clear that Bartlett could not hit. The Tigers acquired Martinez on March 22. How does Quentin fit? It could be as a bat on the bench if he demonstrates he can hit. They haven't had that bat the last few years instead carrying multiple utility players. If he demonstrates that he is a much better threat with the bat than Nunez, he is more valuable to the bench. If he can't hit, let's hope Molitor recognizes it and releases him. The Twins are stuck with the weak bench they had last year.
  15. jorgenswest
    The Twins don't know what is ahead for Joe. It is nice that Justin won a batting title in year 3 but not relevant. There would need to be a lot more cases of concussions and recovery times to have any hope in year 3. I suspect each path to partial or full recovery is very different. It is very likely that Joe will need to moved to a part time role before his contract expires. That may happen this year if Vargas or Arcia push themselves forward. I don't now and have never questioned Joe's work ethic or commitment to the team and game. A knee injury cut Tony's career short. Kirby's was cut short by his vision. No one questioned them. We should not question Joe. We should question the Twins decision making at first base if he does not return closer to his previous level of performance. It is sad that his career may have been derailed by the concussion. That concussion does not need to derail the team also.
  16. jorgenswest
    To add ... his numbers as a starter were highly impacted by a BABIP of well over .400. At the time he was moved to reliever his FIP was close to his 2014 FIP when many were excited about his future.
  17. jorgenswest
    The Yankees DFA'd Nunez because he couldn't play 2B and fill a utility role. He may have improved his SS play from the poor level but it isn't possible to use metrics to support an improvement. The sample size for his offensive statistics are not enough to support improvement either. His strike out rates and walk rates with the Twins are in line with his career numbers. His ground all rate is up and his line drive and fly ball rates are down. That may indicate a change in approach leading to a better batting average. If the Twins believe he is a different player based on a partial year of slash numbers and UZR, they have little understanding of the sample necessary for those offensive and defensive numbers to be reliable.
  18. jorgenswest
    I don't think there is doubt in most major league front offices. They show through their roster decisions at catcher and hiring people like Mike Fast. I still wonder about Suzuki. By most measures, he is a poor to below average defensive choice at catcher. Is there some aspect of catching that goes unmeasured in which Suzuki excels? For some reason pitchers on his teams appear very confident in him behind the plate. That confidence can't come from his ability to frame pitches or throw out runners. It has to be something else. Note: the one measure where Suzuki once excelled was blocking pitches and preventing wild pitches. If true, it was baffling to me that Gardenhire would choose to sit him with the very wild Deduno on the mound. If anyone needed help preventing wild pitches, it was Deduno.
  19. jorgenswest
    Twins pinch hitting was beyond awful last year. A bench of Nunez, Santana and back up catcher isn't going to change that much. It might make sense to seek a bat on the bench instead of two utility players. I am not sure that Quentin is the solution. He certainly is going to need more reps than spring training to demonstrate his readiness. Send him to AAA. If his skill set returns, DFA one of the utility guys and add a bat to the bench. If not, release Quentin and seek another bat.
  20. jorgenswest
    Plouffe is an asset. Trade him if you can get a good return. If not, state in the press that you were not looking to trade him. I think it shows the most respect to the player who has been a valuable and hard working member of the organization.
  21. jorgenswest
    Santana can be very valuable to a team in a bench role where he can play an adequate 2B,SS and CF. Emilio Bonifacio was a useful player through his 20s. Santana can provide similar value while under team control. With three and four man benches teams often find little room to carry a bench hitter or platoon option on a corner. If Santana can play both CF and 2B/SS it opens up the opportunity to carry an extra corner guy. It is up to the Twins to utilize the opportunity he provides the bench with his versatility.
  22. jorgenswest
    I would be more interested in comparing pitch level data like swing rates, contact rates or swing and miss rates for example. The sample isn't small for those numbers to be reliable. Free swinging doesn't have to equate to poor contact or strike zone judgement. Puckett and Oliva were considered to be free swinging. I am sure they had extreme swing rates. I am guessing they matched that with high contact rates in and out of the zone. Rosario has an extreme swing rate, but his rate of contact on pitches out of the zone is below league average. That is a worrisome combination.
  23. jorgenswest
    Is Austin Jackson a better fit for the roster than Trevor Plouffe? Plouffe has the better bat. Jackson hasn't been very good against right handed pitching the last two years. The defense of Jackson in the OF and Sano at 3B must be the better defensive combination. Should the Twins trade Plouffe for the best prospects or team control relief pitching they can find and then turn around and spend the money on Jackson? The money would not be the same but it will be close. I think MLBTR had Jackson at 1/12. Might be less now. Jackson could start in CF if Buxton is not ready. If Buxton is ready, he still fits the OF mix pretty well. Batting right handed allows him to platoon with Arcia or even Rosario against left handed pitching, He should start in the OF when the match up looks like there will be a lot of fly balls going to RF. The Twins won't have days with Arcia and Sano on the corners and Rosario or Santana in CF. They have done that before with Willingham in LF. It wasn't pretty. It might be too late, but I would do it. I think for this one year he is the perfect bridge to Kepler and at the start of the season Buxton. He safe guards the chance that Rosario regresses, Buxton is not ready, Sano can't handle the OF or Arcia can't hit.
  24. jorgenswest
    Most hitting, pitching and fielding stats all need more than a single season's sample. The pitch level data and the strike out, walk and maybe ground ball/fly ball rates are useful for projecting based on a single full season. Rosario's poor plate discipline rate's are reason for concern. These are stats that are reliable in a single season. They can improve, but it will take a change in skill. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=150&type=5&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=8&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=4,d
  25. jorgenswest
    Without an injury or move, it seems like the positional players are set. It is possible Park will need adjustment time in AAA. Arcia might have a really rough spring and be DFA'd but both seem unlikely. The limited positional flexibility from Park and Mauer will present a problem over the next three years. They need one or the other to play a passable corner OF. The Twins are going to want to keep Sano in the line up every day and there will be times when he is injured where he can still play DH. The Twins also have Walker in the pipeline who has a well below average arm. Either Mauer or Park may be a better option on a corner. They need to prepare Mauer or Park on a corner OF this spring. It will become necessary at some point during the season and they need to be prepared. I hope they give Tonkin a role. I think he will be a better option than Fien and could be a good 7th inning option. The two are headed in opposite directions in their careers. I agree Graham should be in AAA. He has the pitch mix to be successful as a starter. He should spend the majority of the year starting in AAA. Unless Pressly shows he is not healthy, he is probably a better option than Fien or possible Nolasco. Keeping Nolasco and Fien while designating Tonkin and Pressly could be very short sighted.
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