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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Rather than trading him for potential future assets, they can keep him and his contribution to the 2016-2017 teams. Kepler has nice potential but it might take him his two remaining option years before he is contributing. Vargas may be ready to contribute but it is not a guarantee. The Twins are a better team in 2016 with Plouffe and unless a trade returns a different asset for the 2016 team, they should keep him.
  2. jorgenswest
    Plouffe will be an asset to the team next year. The Twins don't need to shop him. The a Twins do need a catcher. If in the process of finding that catcher Plouffe is a good fit in return, trade him. The Twins need to focus on filling needs rather than selling off valuable assets.
  3. jorgenswest
    Seems like a fair deal. Much more reasonable than trade proposals that package several flawed players for a young catcher.
  4. jorgenswest
    The average shortstop has a wRC+ of 86 (88 in 2014). Escobar was 102 last year and is 98 this year. That is well above the average shortstop. The Twins haven't seen a better two year run since 1981 and Roy Smalley. I think the only season since better than Escobar last year was a single good season from Guzman. The Twins have far bigger problems relative to league split at catcher, right field and first base.
  5. jorgenswest
    His fWAR split in 41 games at SS is 1.7
  6. jorgenswest
    You might recall two off seasons ago when there was so much interest here in the Twins signing JD Drew. If they had done so they not only would have had his declining performance, they would not have given Escobar a chance to develop. Signing middling veterans in decline can stall the growth of a franchise. This is one case where the Twins got it right.
  7. jorgenswest
    As soon as a younger player can match his performance it is time to move. Anything else hurts the team on. It was very unlikely he would be an average AL pitcher this year and that probability went to 0 when his PED use was uncovered.
  8. jorgenswest
    Most stats are not used well. The sample size to be meaningful is larger than a partial season. Strike out rate, walk rate, ground all rate and fly ball rate are the most meaningful in season. The rest, antiquated or not, need a very large sample.
  9. jorgenswest
    Minor league contracts to veterans in their thirties.
  10. jorgenswest
    Team friendly contracts for mediocre players.
  11. jorgenswest
    May isn't the only one who loses. Twins lose also. The cost of a league average starter in free agency is more than they paid for Santana. The cost of a set up man is in the Gregorson range. The difference is near 10 million. If May can be that league average starter, it will much less expensive to find a set up man.
  12. jorgenswest
    If the only two choices are meh starter and dominant reliever then the choice is obvious. The Twins will be desperate for league average starting. They are not very likely to get that level from the 100 million they spent on pitching the last two off seasons. Those guys projected to be 4 and then number 5 starters as they decline. May's early career as a starter suggests that he can be that league average starting pitcher in his prime. The Twins can't pass on that opportunity.
  13. jorgenswest
    Does the overall dWAR also adjust for position? Wieters time at DH would add negative value defensively. Somehow Ortiz has a negative dWAR in seasons he never played in the field. Additionally, catcher dWAR does not include game calling or framing. I don't think their dWAR supports Suzuki as a better defensive catcher.
  14. jorgenswest
    One year they kept a rule 5 guy around all year in spite of a 6.49 ERA and 1.814 WHIP.
  15. jorgenswest
    He does have a better record of throwing out runners in the minors than Fryer with both around 30%. As Sam Deduno's personal catcher, his performance was very poor. It was an inexcusable decision on Gardenhire's part. There was no chance that pairing would be successful.
  16. jorgenswest
    The Twins OPS split at SS is 16th in the league. Basically they have received a near league average split at SS this year even when anchored down by Santana's poor performance. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2015&month=38&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=9,d If they want to fix something they might consider looking for league average performance at C(27th), 1B(22nd) or RF(26th). Those are the positions where they can make the greatest gain without acquiring an elite talent at the position. They may have an in house solution in Vargas or a healthy Arcia.
  17. jorgenswest
    Assuming they are hanging around playoff contention they could use the following. -Another left handed bat in the OF... Arcia has a few weeks to show he is worthy of a call up. Otherwise let him have some time off and try to get straightened out in winter ball. if not Arcia then Kepler can give them a left handed bat on the bench and in the OF. -Arms in the bullpen... They should load up the bullpen with every useful arm. Go one batter at a time late in the game if necessary. -Another infielder and speed on the bench... Polanco or Santana or both. -a catcher... I can't think of anyone -And baseball's top prospect
  18. jorgenswest
    As long as they aren't trying to squeeze one more year of a mediocre (but deserving of a major league job) decline phase veteran while at the same time designating a player with the upside of youth.
  19. jorgenswest
    If I were the Padres I would stick with Solarte at 3B. Their production at 3B as a team is the same as the Twins this year ranking just above the middle of the league. Solarte is a year younger than Plouffe and has two more years of team control. He is cheaper. The Padres do need a SS. If they want to trade Hedges, they should be trading him for a similarly talented young shortstop. The only guy the Twins have that is close is Polanco. Catchers are in shorter supply than SS and there may be a team that has a better young SS to offer. If they trade Norris, they should be looking for a similarly talented established SS. The Twins don't have any of those. The Padres also have a need for defense in the OF. Hicks for Hedges might work. This is the year to trade Plouffe, but I don't think the Padres should be interested. Their needs at SS and CF are much more glaring and they can't use their best trade asset for a possible marginal upgrade at 3B. They also should not use their best trade chip for a package of flawed players. Polanco for Hedges? Hicks for Hedges? Is either enough? If not, the Padres would be wise to look elsewhere for a better SS or CF rather than take on multiple players unless those multiple players are Hicks and Polanco.
  20. jorgenswest
    I wonder if they should shut him down and see if he can find his bat in winter ball. A left handed power bat under team control would be incredibly valuable to this organization. They have to give him a shot next year in a platoon role.
  21. jorgenswest
    Polanoco would be first choice, but I think Escobar will be better with the bat and glove next year. He is better this year. He has a 94-93 OPS + edge over the last two years. He is younger. Desmond will be 30 next year. He is very unlikely to stay at SS the next 3 years. Signing Desmond for 3-4 years would be like giving a below league average pitcher a 4 year contract at age 32 and expect they will make a significant contribution.
  22. jorgenswest
    On Inside Twins, I believe Rob Antony implied he would be at DH as he recovers this year.
  23. jorgenswest
    The Twins are getting a 93 wRC+ from 1B. The median is 115. Only catcher looks to be a greater deficit relative to positional league average. If the Twins want to win they need to fix 1B and C. Mauer should be in competition for the fix at 1B. They can't keep playing him there if he can't produce near a league median 1B.
  24. jorgenswest
    2-5 with a home run in first GCL rehab. I hope concussions have not closed the door on his major league career. He has worked too hard to get there.
  25. jorgenswest
    Arcia's value in the trade market is minimal. His ceiling remains high with his major league performance at 22-23. The likelihood of getting to that ceiling smaller, but shouldn't be tossed aside by the Twins. I think he is more likely to have a 2 WAR season next year than Hunter.
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