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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I strongly disagree.
  2. jorgenswest
    Major league center fielders have an OPS of 727 this year. If you have a good glove and can approach that level you are a starting CF. That is certainly within Hicks' capability.
  3. jorgenswest
    Reyes is now what we were concerned Tulowitzki would be in two years. His defense is below average. His bat is weaker and void against lefties this year. He might be a slight upgrade this year but will be a huge deficit going forward. He might be worth a win though and that win could be the difference between being the road team in a wild card play in game and sitting on the outside. The Twins would have to plan to move him to LF for the future though. The only deal I would consider is Mauer for Reyes. The Twins could play Reyes at SS this year and replace Mauer in the lineup with Arcia or Kepler or a rental bat. The Twins might need to send some cash or C prospects or both with Mauer.
  4. jorgenswest
    Reyes is now what we were concerned Tulowitzki would be in two years. His defense is below average. His bat is weaker and void against lefties this year. He might be a slight upgrade this year but will be a huge deficit going forward. He might be worth a win though and that win could be the difference between being the road team in a wild card play in game and sitting on the outside. The Twins would have to plan to move him to LF for the future though. The only deal I would consider is Mauer for Reyes. The Twins could play Reyes at SS this year and replace Mauer in the lineup with Arcia or Kepler or a rental bat.
  5. jorgenswest
    Gonsalves is almost a year older. They were directly compared in a BP June chat both 20 at the time but Meisner had just turned 20. Gonsalves now 21. Meisner was said to have more upside and more risk. Both started in low A this year and moved to high A after making significant progress. I don't think the Twins have a better comp in prospect value.
  6. jorgenswest
    Gonsalves and Meisner were comped in a June BP chat. Meisner the better upside and more risk. Both are 20. Both made great strides this year. Both moved from low A to high A.
  7. jorgenswest
    Meisner is similar to Gonsalves in value. They probably could have acquired Clippard for Gonsalves plus someone. I think they are wise to wait out reliever market. Starting pitching is always thin.
  8. jorgenswest
    No more cause for concern than before the break. The Twins find themselves without a number 1 or 2 starter necessary for any playoffs. The Twins have invested heavily in three pitchers and two in decline in Nolasco and Santana. As expected Hughes has regressed towards his career line. They invested in Pelfrey. None are top of the rotation pitchers. They really have to hope on May and Berrios to eventually lead the rotation. They can't do that if they can't get starts at the major league level to develop.
  9. jorgenswest
    Great game from Santana. I also appreciated the defense Molitor have the fly ball pitcher. Right time to get Nunez in infield. Best possible OF defense.
  10. jorgenswest
    Is the choice punt 2015 or punt 2017 and beyond? I don't see why those need to be the choices. Is it Tulo or nothing? Someone will be foolish enough to take Tulowitzki's contract. It could be the Twins. In 2017 the Twins can have platoon of Tulo and Mauer at 1B and a trio of number 5 starters to the tune of around 100 million for the 5. Makes sense to me. I'm in.
  11. jorgenswest
    I was at the game. Your description in no way fits what I saw. Perhaps you were at the game also and saw it different. I don't see how anyone could see range and movement on TV.
  12. jorgenswest
    You can't use WAR that way. Escobar gets a huge deduction for starting games in LF. He is getting compared to the bat of a replacement level LF. You need to look at the splits and probably need to use last year also to get enough fielding data. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=6&season=2015&month=38&season1=2015&ind=0&team=8&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 Escobar's WAR as a SS is 0.5 (positive) in just 69 PA! Tulowitzki is 1.7 as a SS in 322 PA. The Twins are getting the median production from their shortstop position this year and that production is being pulled down by Danny Santana. They can fix the position by playing Escobar and Nunez (using Nunez when they throw a fly ball pitcher)
  13. jorgenswest
    There is reason to be excited about the Twins as they move towards 2017. By then key young players will have hundreds of games under their belts. They could really mess that up committing to Tulowitzki. Look at his defensive metrics. You may not buy the metric in terms of how it equates to runs but you can see the steady decline since his rookie year. This year he is below average. By 2017 or possibly earlier he won't be a shortstop. Where are they going to play him and his big contract. He could easily join Joe Mauer making 20 million for ordinary offense from a corner position. They will also still have the burden of Hughes, Santana and Nolasco's contracts and performance from them that might equate to a fifth starter or worse. At the same time they have key young players entering their prime, they will have huge commitments to decline phase players handcuffing the front office and ensuring the team will be mediocre. The Rockies need to find a team foolish enough to take this contract. I hope it isn't the Twins.
  14. jorgenswest
    The Twins are getting league average SS play when looking at the offensive splits. According to OPS, they were 13 at the all star break and 15 today as many are lumped in the middle.The average SS line has an OPS of .657. The Twins split at SS is .656 that includes Danny Santana's 547. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2015&month=38&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=9,d Clearly Molitor believes Santana is better than that. If at some point he stops believing, he has options on his bench that will provide a better than league average SS bat. While SS gets the focus here due to Santana, the production has been OK compared to the league. The same can not be said about LF, CF, DH and 1B. Their production at those positions is clearly below the median. They have a solution at DH. The CF production will be better without Schafer. LF is better when they aren't playing shortstops out there. Perhaps biggest need #1b is 1B.
  15. jorgenswest
    I took a stab a month ago http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-6647-looking-at-the-40-man-roster/
  16. jorgenswest
    I would rather play Escobar than give up anything for Segura. Escobar certainly has been the better hitter. He will be solid at SS when given a chance to play everyday. They need to focus on fixing the pen followed by catcher.
  17. jorgenswest
    This must Tonkin's last option year. If he isn't good enough to help a team desperate for relief help, he has absolutely no trade value. Any team acquiring him has no time to develop him.
  18. jorgenswest
    Oakland will do better. Zobrist will get a qualifying offer and result in a comp pick and the associated draft dollars. Oakland would need to see the deal as losing Zobrist, Clippard and a comp pick to get a young SS that may not be able to stay at the position and weaker minor league credentials than the guy they have and two relievers. I don't think Beane sees much value in relievers. I think he will get starting pitching prospects as a result of moving those two. While the trade is fair on paper, the trade deadline is a sellers market. It isn't enough to the seller to simply win-win. Edit: Tonkin probably adds no value to the A's. He will be out of options and the A's have no opportunity to develop him. If the Twins don't value him this year, why would another team see value? They just need to wait until he is DFA'd next spring.
  19. jorgenswest
    Without question there will be several relievers on th market that would help the Twins in the 7th and 8th innings. Clippard, Benoit and Papelbon seem certain to move. The question for the Twins is when should they jump in. Do they motivate a team to stop bargaining with other clubs and blow them away with an offer now? The advantage to the Twins is they get that player they have targeted and get an extra 10 games. The advantage for the other club is they get a deal that exceeds their expectations. The Twins made a similar move the last two years in the free agent market jumping in early on Nolasco and Santana by giving them an offer that exceeded their expectations. Do they wait until the 31st and get a bargain on one of the remaining relievers on the market? The advantage to the Twins would be a significantly reduced prospect cost. The risk would be that they don't get enough help. I am hoping the Twins have patience and see what the market brings them on the 31st.
  20. jorgenswest
    Phegley is under team control until 2021. He is showing the power that he flashed in the minors. They just acquired him from the White Sox in the Smardzija deal. I am sure they would trade him to anyone who would overpay, but they have absolutely no reason to be selling him otherwise. He has much more value than a throw in on a Clippard deal. They should be motivated to trade Clippard.
  21. jorgenswest
    What helps more today? Robinson's speed and glove or Arcia's bat? They chose Robinson. Let's hope they chose correctly.
  22. jorgenswest
    Adding Arcia will guarantee that a corner player is on the bench and available to pinch hit every game. I think that brings more value than Robinson.
  23. jorgenswest
    I am not sure how well it transfers. Herrmann has thrown out 42% the last three years in AAA and has better career numbers in the major leagues.
  24. jorgenswest
    I argued strongly that it was a bad signing. I compared him with all other A's and National's catchers in 2012 and 2013. Pitchers had better strike out walk numbers with the other catchers. He caught a lot of games for both those teams. Those teams had ERAs among the best in baseball. At the time they acquired Suzuki, I argued it was in spite of him. Maybe I was wrong.
  25. jorgenswest
    Does Suzuki bring value behind the plate that goes unmeasured by anything measured? I hated the move to acquire him knowing that Pinto wouldn't be given an opportunity in 2014. I saw the bad framing numbers, poor throwing numbers and weak bat. I hated the extension. I wonder if I was wrong. I wonder if he brings value that isn't measured.
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