jorgenswest

I expect Allen to back up all of his pitchers in the press. Not shocked.

The best decision might be a Santana in the pen. Milone? He his outperforming Santana's projections for this year. He has outperformed Santana since his first full season in 2012. If he has outperformed Santana his last 500 innings, isn't it possible he will in the next half season? He is also 4 years younger. Gibson or May? Both young pitchers critical to the Twins future. Do they want to replace them with a pitcher that was league average though his prime and highly likely to be below in his decline? Pelfrey? He is performing too well. Hughes? He really fits the Gibson/May group. He is in his prime and critical to the future. When they sign a decline phase veteran to a long term contract they have to understand that there will be a point before the contract expires where that pitcher will no longer be among the best 5 options. The best decision might be to use Santana in the pen until injury or a string of poor performances gives him an opportunity.

Fien is in the high leverage role now. I think Molitor knows that good first half performance from a reliever has little correlation to second half performance when it isn't backed up by good performance in previous years. They need to with the seven pitchers that give them the best chance to win moving forward. As soon as Boyer isn't one of those 7, they need to cut ties and thank him for his excellent few months.

I am not sure how to respond because I doubt this is serious. The Twins are giving up far fewer runs this year in thanks to a solid defense around the diamond that they have t seen this decade. It has had a huge impact on pitching performance. It isn't just the outfield. We have already seen the damage when you play Nishioka, Plouffe or even Dozier at A time the outfield had Revere and Span covering a lot of ground. There is no way the above suggested infield can perform at anything above an awful level. Outs would become hits. Double plays would not be turned. Innings would be prolonged. Starters will exit short of 6 innings. The bullpen will be overworked. The Twins would score a few more runs.

Kepler and Walker are likely going to follow the same back and forth from majors to minors that so many others have needed. They can't be expected to be ready next year or even the year after. It is really hard to hit major league pitching and most players do not come up ready to do so. They learn by failing in the majors and making adjustments that were never necessary in the minors. The Twins need Arcia. He is the better hope for power next year.They also need to preserve all of Walker's options.

Milone is under team control until 2019. Since 2012 (Milone's first full season) Milone 34-24, 3.97 ERA, 98 ERA+, 506 IP Santana 32-33, 4.06 ERA, 95 ERA+, 585 IP Milone is 28 and Santana is 32. Is it possible that Milone is the better pitcher today and into the future? Is it clear that he is not the better pitcher? Santana had better dominate in his three Rochester starts. Milone set that bar. Santana needs to approach it or take a spot in the pen. Let's certainly not trade Pelfrey or Milone until Santana is dominant.

Since 2012 (Milone's first full season) Milone 34-24, 3.97 ERA, 98 ERA+, 506 IP Santana 32-33, 4.06 ERA, 95 ERA+, 585 IP Milone is 28 and Santana is 32. Is it possible that Milone is the better pitcher today and into the future? Is it clear that he is not the better pitcher?

Many things can happen in the space of three starts, but Santana may not improve the rotation. He better dominate in Rochester like Milone or expect to start in the pen. Pelfrey's spot is a given. http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-6673-replacing-santana/

It took Dave Hollins to get him the last time. Might take a little more today.

Sending Arcia to AAA is the right move. We don't need to read into that move a hopeless feeling on the part of the Twins staff. They expect better and sent a message to a young player. Every team encounters a poor attitude from a struggling young player. It is difficult to handle failure and sometimes prolonged failure doesn't happen until the major league level. The Twins can deal with Arcia by expecting and demanding better. I think Arcia will step up and meet those expectations. I think he will provide a much needed power bat against right handed pitching in his prime.

As Ervin Santana gets ready for his first start in Rochester, I wondered what the impact of his loss has been on the Twins thus far. Mike Pelfrey was his immediate replacement and he has certainly stepped up to the task. He has far outperformed what we might have expected from Santana. It isn't really fair to compare his performance to just Pelfrey though. I looked at the performance of Pelfrey, May and Milone. All three had opportunities that may not have been available had Santana not let down his team with his suspension. The three together have combined for 32 starts thus far. In those 32 starts, they went 12-9 with a 3.59 ERA in 188 innings. The 32 starts represent a full season with an ERA+ of 111. Wow! No one could have projected those numbers. What should have been expected from Santana? Last year he had an ERA+ of 93 with the Braves. He was very good in 2013 and absolutely awful in 2012. He is projected by Steamer to have an ERA of 4.31. Is it possible that his absence has helped in the win column? Had Santana performed as projected, it may have cost the Twins 1 or 2 wins. I would go further and suggest that the timing of his suspension may have contributed to the Twins awful start to the season. Maybe it would be 2-3 wins (instead of 1-2) had they never signed him. It would be unwise to use first half numbers to project second half numbers. I am not sure what their updated projections will look like, but they probably will be similar to Santana's and somewhat worse than league average ERA. I don't think projections would clearly show Santana as a better option among the four. He will add depth. At this point, it doesn't appear Santana's loss has cost the Twins in the win column. It is likely just the opposite. I think Santana's suspension has had a positive impact on the win loss record thus far. I think it has been worth 2 wins. Is it possible Santana's addition and placement in the starting rotation will cost them in the win column? This is a team that appears to have developed a good chemistry. May, Milone and Pelfrey have seized the opportunity and earned the trust of their teammates. If Santana is going to have a positive impact upon returning, he needs to start by being lights out in Rochester. Milone set that bar. Santana needs to approach it.

Santana was essentially league average from ages 27-31. The outlook for that group isn't encouraging from ages 32-35. http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-6349-what-can-the-twins-expect-from-santana-and-nolasco/ With decline expected every year, this year was his best chance of being a significant help and pitching near league average. He let his team down and forfeited half of that year. Luckily for the Twins, other pitchers stepped up. They don't deserve to lose their spot. That sends a bad message to the club house and the team.

There is space for all of the players named above on the 40. There will be next year also. http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-6647-looking-at-the-40-man-roster/#commentsStart

It is unreasonable to expect number 2 performance from Santana. Going back 5 years, he has one season with the Royals where he performed at that level. That performance was aided by a fantastic defense. He is projected for an ERA of 4.31 by steamer. He had an ERA+ of 93 last year. A number 4 starter this year is a much more reasonable expectation. The Twins certainly have not missed him in the first half. His starts have likely gone to May, Milone or Pelfrey all of whom are outperforming his projection. In fact it is likely that the Twins have benefitted in the win column due to his absence.

Any long term projections really need to look back long term. A few months of data is not very useful in projecting long term. Three full years minimum are needed. I hope the Twins are not reacting to this just year and valuing Kepler ahead of Arcia.

Listed on transaction page today

The Twins have 6 current starters under team control trough 2017. At some point in that time, Trevor May has a good chance of being the best of the 6. I don't see how the Twins can afford to trade away that possibility. While it looks like they will have surplus pitching in the month of July this season, I do not see the same surplus going forward. Berrios is the only one in the minors that the Twins should feel confident about helping by 2017. Others are probably going to need to bounce back and forth on their options in that time frame. The Twins do not have so much pitching that they can trade off their youngest starter. There is no certainty that the perceived surplus will be realized three weeks from now. They probably ought to hold off any trade thoughts until the all star break.

If the Twins want someone who can help now, they are going to have to trade top prospects. Offering Pelfrey or Milone isn't going to work. Look to the Milone for Fuld trade as an example of what they might be able to get in terms of help now. I think they need to trade Pelfrey for the best the market will offer. He is not under team control for next year. He would not be a good extension candidate. I hope the Twins don't perceive his value so high that they don't get a return. They made that mistake with Suzuki last year.

There is extra value for player's not yet on a 40 man roster like Harrison and Gonsalves. They probably are going to have to take someone off a 40 man roster. Hopefully that player will have options remaining after this year.

I would think his value is no better than Liriano's in 2012. Possibly less. They both had FIPs worse than league average. Liriano's FIP was 4% above league average and Pelfrey's current FIP is 7% above league average. The Twins did get two players with the upside of youth while moving through minors at a young age. Escobar is well worth the 11 Liriano starts. I think they need to trade Pelfrey for the best the market will offer. They can't expect GMs to use his current ERA to project future performance. Much like Suzuki's batting average least year, it is an illusion and doesn't change his value going forward. If the Twins expect a return based on a few months of ERA out of line with career, they will not find a trade partner.

Draft and follow is no longer a possibility

Move him to AAA or keep him in AA. Call him up in September or play him in the AFL. I don't think any of those will significantly change his career path. The only mistake would be to use an option this year.

Is it possible to both be encouraged by his production and concerned about his strike zone management? Is it possible to do so without calling for his call up today or trashing him? I think he will be a productive player in the majors. I think the best route is to finish the year in AA. Follow that with an addition to the 40 in the winter and begin 2016 in AAA. Maybe we won't see him until September 2016. He might need all three options before he has a valuable role. Is that trashing him?

Players will say it is the speed of the game that makes fielding more challenging in the majors.

He doesn't need to have symptoms. Brain injuries can change the brain. Permanently.