jorgenswest

You are correct about Springer. He has a different talent set. The comp is the strike outs and ISO in the minors and whether players with high rates in both were able to find success in the majors. It will be an encouraging sign if Walker's strike out rate drops to around 25%. He will then join several others who have found success in spite of a high minor league strike out rate.

I might give it to Buxton

I wonder if J.R. Graham might force his way on that list.

You are right about the 40. Whatever the plan was entering the season, their record after 60 games has to alter that plan. They still would use Torii in RF once or twice a series and sit either Hicks or Rosario. Hughes and May with their fly ball tendencies would benefit from a Rosario/Buxton/Hicks outfield. Only the Royals can top that for defense.

Adam Walker: Looking for Comps

Seems like a no brainer to me. The Twins might have been wise to wait on his service time clock had the season progressed as expected. Now that they are in the midst of a run, is there any player with the potential to have a greater impact? If they had the plan of a September call up, now is the time to change the plan. What is the risk? He will be taking at bats from among Vargas, Hicks and Rosario. They have RC+ of 85, 66 and 95 and with those the Twins have the best record in the AL. Even if Buxton performs in the midst of those number he adds defense and speed. Let's do it. Dump the 13th pitcher.

You have to be excited about Adam Brett Walker's performance in AA. He leads all AA players with an ISO of .312. This isn't new. He had the second best ISO in the Florida State League last year at .190. Where is all of the top prospect love? It is hard to get past his strike out rates. Not only does he lead all AA players in ISO but he also leads in strike out rate at 35.5%. Some look at the strike out rate and dismiss Walker as a prospect. Certainly major league pitchers would take better advantage of his poor strike zone judgment. I wondered in there were any other AA players among the league leaders in both strike out rate and ISO that became solid major league players. Below is a list of players who were among the top of their league in both AA categories since 2006. Brandon Wood Kody Kirkland Chip Cannon Wilkin Ramirez Greg Halman Brandon Waring Carlos Peguero Joe Benson Kyle Russell Derek Norris Tommy Mendonca Brahiam Maldonado Matt Fields Domingo Santana Michael Taylor Stephen Montoya Some multiple appearances on the list. I think Brandon Waring made it 4 times. Brandon Wood stuck out to me. He was a very highly ranked prospect. He had strike out rates of 28.5% in AA and 24.6%, 23.2% and 18.7% in AAA as he bounced back and forth between the majors and AAA. His walk rates in the minors were around 10%. Even though he was able to improve his strike out rate over time, it didn't traslate well in the majors for him and slugging percentages of 550-600 in the minors was 289 in 751 major league plate appearances. Carlos Peguero is still hanging on. Unlike Wood, his strikeout rate never improved below 30% as he moved up the ladder. He has 319 major league plate appearances with a strike out rate of 39.5%. Slugging in the minors of 463, 558, 562, 563 translates to 384 overall in the majors. Derek Norris is on the list. He was a major league all star last year. In AA, he had a strike out rate of 27.7% and an ISO of 237. You might dismiss this as a good comp since both the K rate and ISO are 20-25% below Walker's level. They are full season stats though and Walker will likely drop a little in both. There is also the context of the park and league. Norris is a valuable major league player. He followed his AA season with a AAA strike out rate of 16.7%. I am not sure what caused the change but he did move to the A's organization from the Nationals and perhaps the A's saw something in his swing that they fixed. That list isn't too encouraging. There is a flaw in my selection. Players with Walker's power don't always stay in AA a full season and therefore do not qualify on the leaderboards. Maybe I missed better players. I looked at it in reverse. I took the current top 10 batters according to strike out rate and looked at their performance in AA. I am hoping that they had similar high strike out rates in AA. Below is a list of the 10 and their strikeout rates this year and in AA. Player MLB%/AA% Souza (36.6% / 23.5%) Carter (35.9% / 20.1%) Davis (34.5% / 21.8%) Stanton (32.7% / 26.2%) Soler (32.2% / 19% ) Pederson (30.1% / 22.0%) Bryant (29.8% / 25.9%) Martinez (28.6% / 16.8%) LaRoche (27.6% / 20.1%) Springer (27.4% / 30.1%) George Springer is my hero. The other 9 strike out at a greater rate in the majors than they did in AA. I guess that shouldn't be surprising. Half of the players had better than a 50% increase in strike out rate. How about George? Like Derek Norris, he went to AAA and reduced his strike out rate In 266 plate appearance it was 24.6%. His overall rate in the major leagues is 30.8% and with that rate he has been a productive player with an OPS 792. What about Walker? Will he be a lifetime minor leaguer like Brandon Waring? Will he bounce back and forth like Brandon Wood? Can he stick like George Springer?

There are players that the Twins do not have under team control next year. Pelfrey, Hunter and some of the bullpen come to mind. I am hoping the Twins don't make them part of the future. They are doing well today but so were some of the other guys in the year they were extended. It is unwise to project the next year or two based on a half season of better than expected performance. Players will both regress to their mean and decline due to age.

It wouldn't be wise to sell low on a young talent. It could easily be a Rosario or Vargas struggling a month from now.

Two thoughts Hunter still needs to be given DH time - maybe once a series. The Twins still need another OF hopefully among Arcia or Buxton. That can be accomplished by going to 12 pitchers Vargas needs to force pitchers to throw him strikes by laying off the pitches out of the strike zone. The message must have been received. In Minnesota, he offered at 33.9% of pitches out of the zone. In Rochester it was 18.5%. It should be less going to AAA but that is a significant difference.

Alex Meyer has now faced 201 batters. Some of the data should no longer be considered small in sample. Strike out rate, walk rate, groundball rate and fly ball rate are now at a large enough sample. Strike out and walk rates can be considered. His strike out rate has moved from 27.1% to 24.4%. His walk rate has moved from11.3% to 12.9%. Those are both changes in the wrong direction but the change isn't very significant to see a change in skill. His groundball rate moved from 45.3% to 36.6% This may be a significant change. His career rates tended to be higher than 45.3% of 2014. There are some numbers that are not near the sample to be considered a result of skill. His ERA has gone from 3.53 to 6.28 while his FIP has moved from 3.51 to 3.55 (it was 3.70 as a starter). Virtually no change in FIP but catastrophic change in ERA. The ERA is fueled by a 100 point increase in BABIP at .420. Without seeing him pitch in person daily, the only stats that have the sample to tell the story are slightly off last year's numbers. While I believe the move to the bullpen was important for him to regain belief in his pitching, I don't think it needs to be permanent. I wonder if the unusually high number of balls in play going for hits caused him to question his pitches and start making adjustments where they were not needed. I wonder the same thing about Strasburg who has a BABIP around .400. It has to mess with your mind.

Catcher is the only spot where there isn't a clear solution this year or next. Extending Suzuki through 2016 guaranteed the Twins will have a deficit at that position. They needed to trade him last year for the best the market would return. Lucroy is a solution. The cost of acquisition is going to hurt. You don't get a catcher who was 4th in the MVP voting with 6.7 WAR the previous year without significant cost. They shouldn't expect to get him for a Walker or a Kepler. Don't waste time dreaming up deals where the Twins send several mid level prospects. It is going to take one player with very high upside and more. Lucroy is that good.

It doesn't hold so it doesn't matter where his numbers against AA pitchers compare with players facing major league pitchers. Look at Vargas' numbers at his two levels this year. It is not close.

I think they will have a bat back soon. Vargas is swinging at 13.3% of pitches out of the zone as compared to 33.9% with the Twins. While there is no doubt that major league pitching is much more difficult to read, it is clear that he is working on his judgment of the strike zone. It isn't that he has become less aggressive, his rate of swinging at pitches in the zone is slightly up. The Twins need Vargas. Pitchers didn't need to throw strikes to the Vargas that was here until mid May. If he can make pitchers throw the ball in the zone, he will hit it hard. The same can be said of Arcia. I don't think this is a development plan for 2016. I think it is a plan for this year. A bat, likely Vargas, will return soon. If all goes as planned, that bat will help much more upon return.

They need to send out two players today to bring in Milone. If they DL Nolasco as one of the two, they will need someone to start on Saturday. Assuming Nolasco is healthy, I think they should release Stauffer and bring in Milone for one game. Following the game, return Milone to Rochester and bring up the player they feel can most help them with the bat. This will return them to 12 pitchers with the overall change being Stauffer for a bat.

In AA Walker is swinging at 30.6% of pitches out of the zone and making contact with less than 46.6% of those out of zone pitches. Major league pitchers would dominate his inability to recognize a strike.

They need to trade Pelfrey. He isn't under contract next year and they certainly don't need to commit to another pitcher in their 30s. His groundball rate is at a career high with enough sample to hope it is based on skill. It might give him some trade value not expected going into the season. The Twins need to take the best the market will offer. They should probably do it soon before injury or string of mediocre starts.

Honestly I really enjoy each game. Playoffs are the bonus. As for a season total, I find myself looking for hope in the young players. I would prefer to have watched 70 wins from a young team that has the hope of upside rather than 81 wins from a team with several players in decline.

There will be player movement in the minors the last two or three weeks of June. Polanco is a good candidate to move up.

Howard's contract goes through 2016 (25 million) and includes a 2017 buyout of 10 million. That is a commitment. Sure the Phillies will buy some of that out but not without a return of prospects from the Twins. Arcia, Vargas, Mauer, Pinto, Hunter... how many of those guys do we want in the field at the same time? Next year add Plouffe/Sano to the mix. Only one can play 3B. We have seen the difference in the outfield with Hicks in CF and Robinson or Rosario in LF. Let's not return to the days of statues in the corners and ball after ball landing in front of them.

Listening to Inside Twins and the build up of Fryer combined with avoidance of mentioning Pinto in the catcher question, I wonder if they are setting up a Fryer move up to the Twins. I hope not.

His July-September OPS last year was 647. A pick up like Howard would be done on August 31st similar to picking up Don Baylor in 1987.

Evaluate at the all star break and until then don't look at the stats. Certainly don't report them until his sample size is around 120 plate appearances. If he is hitting poorly at the all star break, they need to see how he does in a 4th OF/platoon role. Start him against every lefty. A fourth OF with good defense that can hit lefties is valuable to every team.

His FIP is 3.75 which is almost the same as last year's 3.66. He needed to move to the bullpen but the high BABIP certainly could have done a number on his confidence.

A similar trade this winter might have been Berrios for Desmond Jennings. Jennings would age been coming off his age 27 season rather than Span's 28. Jennings has a far better prospects pedigree. They both were coming off similar seasons ranking around 10th among CFs with a 3.3 WAR. Span had the concussion issue. Jennings is a clear step up from Span. Berrios is BA number 36 prospect with 8 starts in AA compared to Meyer's BA ranking of 59 and high A experience. Both have height concerns. Berrios is a step up from Meyer. If you didn't think Span for Meyer was a good deal at the time, a trade of Berrios for Jennings must look pretty good to you. It is so hard to acquire a top of the rotation starter. It might take 4 similar trades to end up the winner in one trade. If you win, the pay off is so great that it is a reasonable risk (even knowing that there is a high likelihood that three years down the road someone will be writing about the failed trade).