jorgenswest

I don't think a week can fix the damage from the concussion. He has no power. He can't make quick decisions in the field. He is a replacement level 1B. Sano would be better.

Yesterday it was Suzuki's call to go to second. Not sure how he directed that at. Today was all Mauer. He has to be thinking dp all at bat and aggressively go after one. He needs to have the fire to win and make a play.

I would pull Mauer right now.

Not sure if playing Nunez at SS is a good match for the ground ball prone Gibson. His fielding might be important today.

Suzuki makes up the one man bench

You are right. The other option is to trade a top prospect for a top catching prospect. Those are hard to find. Catcher is a huge hole and I would have preferred they had gone after Martin this winter rather than to extend Suzuki. Now they have to pay in prospects.

You are right. They would be hard to find. The best prospects don't stay the full season at the same level. They would do well in all aspects and move up in June. It is really difficult to lead your full season level in home runs or RBIs or even be among the top three when you don't stay there a full season. If you limit yourself to only those players who played the full season at A, A+ and AA you would have a very skewed group void of most good major leaguers.

He hasn't had near a long enough shot this year for the data to be of any use. The same should be said of Rosario. Looking at the data, you really don't know what you have in a player until they pass 1000 plate appearances. It is time for Buxton though regardless of how Hicks had performed.

With the depth of the Twins system, they will have several players that need to be put on the 40 man roster this winter to avoid the rule 5 draft. Are there so many that the Twins should consider trading some of them this summer? How many spots will reasonably be available this winter? With the DFA of Tim Stauffer, the Twins currently have 40 men on their 40 man roster. There is one spot available as Ervin Santana will not count until he return in July. The Twins will have some players entering free agency following the season. Those spots will be open. Those players include Torii Hunter Blaine Boyer Mike Pelfrey Brian Duensing Any of those players can be replaced. The Twins should not feel the urgency to extend them this summer. They might consider trading them for whatever the market will return. That is 4 spots. The remaining 36 are under team control in some form or another. Some will be eligible for arbitration. The Twins may elect not to take them to arbitration. Trevor Plouffe Jordan Schafer Tommy Milone Shane Robinson Eduardo Nunez Casey Fien Eduardo Escobar I would think that Plouffe, Fien and Escobar would be offered arbitration. If Milone isn't traded, he may also be offered arbitration. I would think Schafer, Robinson and Nunez can be replaced. Adding those three that is 7 spots The Twins have some players on the 40 man roster that might be considered close to replacement level. They include A.J. Achter Logan Darnell J.R. Graham Ryan Pressly Caleb Thielbar Aaron Thompson Michael Tonkin Jason Wheeler Chris Herrmann Josmil Pinto Doug Bernier Aaron Hicks Darnell and Wheeler are lefthanded and may not make it through rule 5 but have little upside. The Twins really need to see what they have in Achter, Thielbar and Tonkin this season. At their age, if they don't feel Achter and Thielbar are worth a long look on the roster, they probably feel like they can be replaced. Pinto now has red flags due to concussions. If he can't catch does he have a spot? Among this list, I think Graham, Pressly, Tonkin, Pinto and Hicks are safe. The rest can be thrown with the group that will need to be put on the 40. That is 7 more spots for a total of 14. You could probably add Suzuki, Mauer and Nolasco to the performing near replacement level list but they have too much money tied into their contract. The Twins could free up a spot if they found a way to dump their contracts. There are two players that don't need to be added to the 40 until the following year, but could get called to the majors in 2015. Buxton and Berrios. They would not be a good candidate for a September call up because of the 40 man status. The only reason to call them up would be to help the team soon. I think they will call up Buxton. With Ervin Santana's return, I don't think we will see Berrios until 2016. 13 spots These are the players will be eligible for the rule 5 draft if they are not put on the 40. Bard, Luke Baxendale, D.J. Duffey, Tyler Haar, Bryan Harrison, Travis Hicks, Dalton Jones, Zack Melotakis, Mason Muren, Alexander Polanco, Joel Rogers, Taylor Valera, Rafael Vielma, Engelb Wade, Logan Walker, Adam Michael, Levi Johnson, Cole Goodrum, Niko 13 spots for those and players above not yet added. I think adding Baxendale, Duffey, Harrison, Jones, Rogers and Walker are givens. 7 spots Achter, Thielbar and Herrman should be safe. 4 spots In summary... Hunter, Pelfey, Boyer, Duensing, Schafer, Robinson, Nunez, Darnell, Thompson, Wheeler and Bernier were removed Buxton, Baxendale, Duffey, Harrison, Jones, Rogers and Walker were added There are 4 more spots. Are there more than 4 players that urgently need to be added? Do the Twins need to trade away prospects due to 40 man roster decision this winter? Note: Thanks to TD and the organizational report. It is very likely I missed something or someone in doing this article. Any help would be appreciated. Edit: Schafer released. Buxton added to 40. Bernier removed. Fryer added. I would remove Fryer at end of season.

There is no short term or clear long term solution at catcher. Suzuki is performing exactly as they should have expected him to perform when they didn't take what the market would offer. They may need to trade Sano or Berrios to get Lucroy. There is a little more upside at the SS position. I think catcher is the greater need. There are plenty of possibilities at 1B or corner OF long term within. I would hate to see them trade for decline phase talent with commitments to next year unless it is an elite level player at their position. The separation between the Twins and the Royals is too great. It can't be closed without getting back very good players. I think there is a good chance Ryan will make some deals that don't help enough this year and hurt long term. Trading for a guy having a career half year and seeing them regress to their career norms in the second half would hurt this team long term. Lucroy is struggling in a small sample. They will need to pay big, but it might be buying as low as it will get.

He is well worth a spot on the 40 man roster in 2016-17 in order to try to develop his bat from minor league power hitter to major league power hitter. Every year the Twins have no upside players taking spots on the 40. It might be wise to wait until next year to put him on the 40 in order to maximize the development time against MLB competition.

Terry Ryan has had success finding bargains in winter free agency. Kurt Suzuki was an all star. Jared Burton was a top set up man. Ryan Doumit provided a very good bat. In all three cases, the Twins chose to extend into their thirties rather than sell. It is not possible to know what the offers could have been for those players. They were all performing well enough to be valued by other teams and there would have been offers. All three could point to some aspect of their games or health that had changed their skill level. Instead the Twins chose to extend. A look at their performance before and after extension. Ryan Doumit (Extended through 2014 on 6/29/2012) Before 229 PA 271/332/443 OPS of 775 After 1003 PA 248/300/406 OPS of 706 A Great Deal From Any Perspective Jared Burton (Extended through 2014 on 12/6/2012) Before 62 IP 2.18 ERA 8.0 K/9 2.3 BB/9 After 130 IP 4.08 ERA 7.4 K/9 3.3 BB/9 Kurt Suzuki (Extended through 2016 on 7/31/2014) Before 348 PA 306/369/391 OPS of 760 After 337 PA 238/294/332 OPS of 626 Is his offense success sustainable? Who do the Twins buy high in 2015? Extension Candidate Number 1: Mike Pelfrey Pelfrey leads the team with a 2.28 ERA after 11 starts. Opposing batters have a .654 OPS against him. Is it his split fingered fastball getting more groundballs? How is Mike Pelfrey Doing This? Extension Candidate Number 2: Torii Hunter Hunter is second on the team with a 757 OPS. That OPS is just slightly lower than his OPS in 2014. He also leads the post game dance celebrations. He is credited with being a great leader for the young players. He is part of an outfield defense that looks markedly improved. Stick a Fork in Hunter: He's Done Extension Candidate Number 3: Blaine Boyer Boyer the Destroyer. He has gone from signing a minor league contract this winter to the Twins new set up man. He has a 2.48 ERA in a team high 29 games pitched. Is his refined change up finally allowing him to be effective against left handed pitching? Twins Best Kept Secret The deals for Suzuki, Burton and Doumit were well received. It was believed Suzuki would sustain his offensive success. Burton's history of arm trouble were behind him. Doumit's two year extension was a great deal from any perspective. Who do they extend this summer?

His xFIP of 4.36 suggests that he will not match his production of the first few months. The Twins made the mistake of believing Suzuki and changed his skill level in his all star performance in the first half of 2014. Will they make the same mistake with Pelfrey?

Is it possible he is exactly where he needs to be? His offensive output should leave us encouraged for the future. His strike out numbers should point to the hard work in front of him before he is ready for the major leagues. He is succeeding in AA and he still has work to do at that level. I expect that he will continue that work in AAA in 2016 and contribute at the major league level in 2017 having improved his ability to judge the strike zone. Can I both believe in his production and realize is has some hard work in front of him?

There is no way a pitchers with a 4.36 xFIP brings back an ace or a stud. That is not being a proponent of trading him. Do the Twins buy high on Pelfrey as they did with Doumit and Suzuki? Do they sell high and take the best the market will offer? Do they let it ride and make a qualifying offer if his second half matches his first half?

The bright spot might be the outfield defense.

Thoughts at the time of the signing can be seen here and here The original article concluded Being opposed was a minority opinion. Those in favor saw the low cost contract and the strike out rate. Those concerned saw the context of a low leverage reliever in Petco Park coming to the AL. The market for good right handed relievers was set north of 5 million this winter. His contract alone should have been a huge red flag that other teams were looking beyond the Petco numbers and weren't impressed with what they saw.

Walker swings at 33.2% pitches out of the zone. Only Kepler has a greater rate among Chattanooga players. Of the out of zone pitches, he only makes contact on 45.2%. That is the lowest among the Lookouts. It is a worrisome combination. You either need to be able to lay off pitches out of the zone or do a better job of making contact with those pitches. Kepler for example swings at 33.8% of pitches out of the zone but makes contact with 72.6% of those. Sano is the other end, he has a 50.5% out of the zone contact rate while swing at 21.9% of pitches out of the zone. There have been several thoughts on Walker lately. I studied other players with high K + high ISO rates in AA and looked to see how often they found success at the major league level. http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-6625-adam-walker-looking-for-comps/

Logan Lombana is a great kid. Seen him play with or against my kids from little league through high school. Very good athlete. Was also one of the best high school soccer goalies in Northern California.

How many players of similar role would the Royals swap one for one with the Twins? Of the position players, I came up with one. Brian Dozier. I suppose they might swap Rios for Hunter also, but Rios is coming back from injury and hasn't played. It would be hard to project who might be better the rest of the way. Several positions the Twins aren't even close. C,1B,SS,3B LF and CF. I might not swap DHs with them but Morales is going to help more this year. Moving to the pen, the gap is wider. Perkins might be the only Twins that could make the roster in the Royals bullpen. I am not sure Fien would be better than any of the right handed short relievers. Maybe they would take Graham over Blanton. The Royals starting rotation isn't very exciting. It doesn't have to be. Five or six innings is enough. If contracts weren't involved they might swap Guthrie for Nolasco. It is hard to imagine how the Twins might be expected to compete much less contend when the disparity in the rosters seems so great. While 8 games over 500, the Twins still have a long way to go to match the Royals.

Sano's transition to the majors will likely be more rocky than Buxton's. Buxton will contribute with his defense and speed day 1. His legs will get him on base even if he struggles at the plate. Sano is all about the bat. He might struggle to hit 200 but he would contribute power and walks.

If Walker believes like some on this site that his strikeout rate doesn't matter, he will not make it. He has to judge the zone better. I think he can do it. His strke out rate over last three levels. A - 20.8% A+ - 28.2% AA - 35.5% He needs to work every day to stop that trend.It matters.

Extend and trade aren't the only two choices. They can also let it play out. If he finishes strong with better than league average ERA they can make him a qualifying offer. They can't trade him at the deadline if he continues strong and they are contending.

Hunter still needs time at DH and will get it with Vargas on the bench or at 1B. Plouffe, Dozier and Escobar will play nearly every day. If somehow two go down they still have Nunez and Rosario (at 2B). They can make it through a game. Even with Vargas up they still need another position player to replace the 13th pitcher. I am hoping for Buxton, but maybe Arcia will get hot. Finding another outfielder that can hit would help. It is really up to Vargas going forward. He has an opportunity to take a regular spot in the line up and not let go of it.

Correa's numbers were better int he Texas League and the PCL but Buxton's overall line would likely be also. There is upside in Buxton they won't find in any reasonable summer acquisition. His defense and speed raise his floor. If the Twins are going to find a player that might shift the record 2 or 3 wins the rest of the way, I think Buxton is the best bet. He would be taking at bats away from primarily Rosario, Hicks and Vargas. There is as much reason to be concerned about the performance of any of those three as there is Buxton.