jorgenswest

BABIP against Alex Meyer this year is .426. It takes 820 balls in play for that number to stabilize so it is not a result of change in skill. It is extremely bad luck. The number of hits on balls in play must be messing with his head and effecting his pitching. He might be trying to make adjustments that he really doesn't have to make. His career BABIP numbers in full seasons run .284-.330. At the other end of the spectrum is Chih-Wei Hu with BABIP of .238. It is amazing how an early season range in BABIP can really impact perception of future performance and skill level. http://minorleaguecentral.com/team?aff=MIN&y=2015&table=5&split=200&age=99&amod=%3C=&time=0&q=&ymod==&dyear=99&rmod==&round=99&hand=-1&type=pitcher&table=0

There is great debate about amount of sample that is needed before any of them are useful predictors. At this point it is foolish to look at any of them for the purpose of projecting further into the season.

Plouffe is in the midst of his peak seasons. He is a valuable player in his age 29 season. He is under team control through 31. It is unlikely he will take another significant step up and very likely he will not perform this well at 32. The Twins need to enjoy the ride and sell high.

Just finished following the Red Wing game. Milone somehow outdid his previous performance with a shut out today. 9-6-0-0-0-13 13 Strike outs and 0 walks. The catcher framing those pitches and calling the game - Josmil Pinto. He also added the offense with a home run. Twins have an opening for a bat as they go to Chicago later this week. Pelfrey and Nolasco has been shaky. The Twins might want to make a couple of plane reservations.

Too early to project. They were 23-21 last year before tumbling.

Molitor states that Vargas needs to work on a consistent approach at the plate. He sees something that he feels that can be addressed in AAA. Is it possible that Molitor and Twins are sending him to AAA betting on an improved Vargas will help benefit this 2015 team? Maybe Molitor is wrong about Vargas, his approach and whether it can be fixed. At this point, I trust his judgement. The Red Wings have 11 games in the same span the Twins have 8 games with only 6 in need of a DH. There isn't going to be a better time in the schedule to send him to AAA.

I think I was clear that I don't see these as connected. All of my comments are about Vargas and Molitor's stated need for him to go to AAA. I trust Molitor's assessment. The Twins play Chicago on Friday. By then Pinto or Arcia may be on the roster instead of Bernier. If not, I can join in then on questioning the need to have Bernier on the roster.

I can't get myself to view moves as reward/punishment. I trust Molitor's assessment off Vargas's need in developing his approach at the plate. It isn't punishment. It is development of a player who has never played AAA. I also don't see it yet as a choice between Bernier and Vargas for the 6 AL games in the span before Vargas can return. I can at least wait until the White Sox series before questioning Molitor on this one. By then another move may have happened making this discussion meaningless.

From his comments I really believe this is Molitor's assessment of Vargas' approach at the plate. Ryan makes the move, but I think this one as well as the Rosario move were pushed by Molitor. It is too early for me to have lost faith in his evaluations.

We are very far apart in our understanding of data and samples and their use for projecting future events.

Small samples are absolutely meaningless in projecting what is going to happen in the coming games. The Twins should not use them as part of their decision making process in deciding who to take to Pittsburgh next week. They have to solely rely on the skill of their staff in evaluating players based on observing them in games and work outs.

I know it is hard for some to see Vargas independent of Bernier. Vargas hasn't started the previous three games. He isn't going to start before Friday of this week. Is it that difficult to see the benefit of him getting regular play time in AAA as part of his development? It really isn't going to be a choice of Bernier or Vargas in any case. More likely it is Nunez, Robinson and Rosario/Escobar vs. Vargas. The Twins must believe those four are at least as capable of delivering in that situation.

Finishing major league hitters is part of the growth process of transitioning from AAA. You can't learn this pitching in Rochester.

While I would rather see Vargas hitting for the pitcher than Bernier, I do trust the Twins assessment that he needs time in AAA. I am certainly glad they are ignoring any of the stats listed above. They are meaningless and not worth the time it takes to type them. I do wonder if another move will happen soon with Bernier.

Rosario's saves the Twins from giving up a big inning. At least 3 runs saved. Defense matters.

All innings were included. Relief only is a better slant.http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/DpNqW Lefty relievers over last three years. http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/JfMJg

There are 27 left handed relievers (non closers) since 2012 that have pitched at least 150 innings in the last 3+ season. Only three of them have an ERA+ of below 100. Phil Coke and Brian Duensing are on the bottom of the list with an ERA+ of 93. In the middle is Wesley Wright with an ERA+ of 117. Duensing's FIP is in the bottom 23rd and last in strike out rate. I am not sure there was ever a high.

It shouldn't be do or die. He has already shown the ability to be a valuable platoon/4th OF. It takes two to platoon and even the short side of the platoon saw 56 starts against lefties last year. It could be everyday regular or platoon 4th OF.

it will be interesting to see how Molitor uses him against right handed pitchers. Every day? Will he pick and choose the right hands pitching he see early on? He spots in Arcia against some lefties that is easier to do with fewer left handed starts. Last year the Twins saw 56 left handed starter (just over 1/3).

The Twins seem to have a plan for Hicks. If that plan was to give him extended time in AAA, they need to follow through. Extended time might be June 1 or Memorial Day, but it is still too early now. I would have had him as a platoon 4th OF. Though I disagreed with their plan, I do believe they need to follow through. It is important to have a plan in developing players and not react to small samples.

This is how many guys who were well below average through their prime pitch at 32. Injuries might be an explanation, but recovering and coming back at 33 usually doesn't happen. Even if he does come back, does he come back to a pitcher 15% off league average? I think the Twins were fooled by his constantly lower FIP than ERA and assessed a better pitcher than they purchased. Give him 10 starts and see if he can find the form he had in 2013. That season was likely an outlier and only one of two in his career where he had a league average ERA+, but maybe Nolasco can find it.

Eddie Yost was an all star in 1952. They traded him after the 1958 season for little at age 32. In his 57 and 58 seasons he had WARs of 0.4 and 0.7. I fail to see the comparison to Plouffe who has been far more valuable at this similar spot in career. Yost's perfromance in 57 and 58 is a much better parallel to the CF situation in Minnesota

I think they believe Nolasco gives them a better chance to win than Milone or the other options right now. I think they believe that the pitcher they evaluated in 2013 can still surface. In order to commit 50 million you have work really hard to convince yourself that you are making a good decision. It is hard to let that belief go.

There are 10 pitchers in the history of baseball that pitched regularly from ages 26-31 with an ERA+ below 90. Ricky's ERA+ in that time frame is 87. Yes. I know his FIP is better. FIP is a better predictor when using a single season of data. This is 6 seasons of data and 1100 innings. The actual performance has more meaning. Back to the 10. Five of them were pitching 100 or more years ago. They probably aren't relevant. The other 5 are Ricky, Andy Hawkins, Dennis Martinez, Shawn Estes and Jaime Navarro. The Twins are paying Nolasco through age 34. The others age 32-34 Hawkins pitched poorly at 31 (as did Nolasco) and did not pitch again. Two had there last full season as a starter at 32 with a few starts bouncing around after 32 Navarro 193 IP, 8-19 6.85 ERA 72 ERA+ Estes 130 IP, 4-9, 4.79 ERA 92 ERA+ Dennis Martinez suddenly turned his career around with a trade to Montreal. He was 29-23 with a 3.32 ERA in 484 innings from age 32-34 and better after 34. Extend the list to an ERA+ of 95 and you don't find anyone else other than Martinez who became a better than league average pitcher after going through their prime well below league average. Nolasco's comp group of pitcher is small. Pitchers who pitch at an ERA+ of 87 through their prime are not given contracts in their decline. It is unreasonable to expect that Nolasco will pitch better from age 32-34 than he did from 26-31? I wouldn't think so. Even if he is able to maintain his 87 ERA+ for the next three years, that isn't going to help the Twins. How much risk is there in releasing him and going with the 28 year old Milone (career ERA+ of 97) until Santana returns or Meyer is ready?

Such a small sample size, I wondered if having an ERA under 3 and a K/9 ratio under 3 over 5-6 games is very frequent. I didn't find a good way to do it with play index but I did get some results. I had to choose a month so Gibson doesn't even show up in the list since he did it across April/May. I also chose under 3 for both categories which limits the group more than it should since Gibson himself was barely under 3 and many on the list were well under 3 in one or both. Going back 25 seasons there have been many instances of numbers like this. There would be many more if any streak of 6 games could be used. Some players are on the list multiple times. Lost of groundball pitchers. Lots of lefties with Buehrle and Glavine making multiple appearances. Blackburn makes the list twice. Bob Welch, Derek Lowe, Mark Mulder, Jeremy Hellickson... I think the ratio of pitchers with successful careers to AAAA pitchers is about the same as any random group.