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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Was it the Eddie 400 campaign led by Brad Swanson last year at TD? This year I think we need to up that to 500 or 600. Eduardo Escobar played well last year. He played well in the winter. He played well in the spring. He has earned and needs consistent playing time. How can Molitor make that happen? Looking at the lineup, there are enough batters that struggle against lefties that he should be in he lineup every one of those games. The problem is that they don't play positions where he is an asset with the glove. Would Molitor consider playing Santana in CF against lefties with Eduardo at SS? Either Arcia or Schafer would be on the bench in that scenario. I think it is a better defensive set up than if Escobar were in the OF replacing Schafer or Arcia. Closing the door to the possibility that Santana in CF might help the team would be a mistake for the new manager. Starting against all lefties. Would that get around 200 plate appearances? Against right handed pitching, could they plan to give him 100 plate appearances from each of Plouffe, Santana and Dozier? At some point someone will be injured and it won't be an even split of the 300, but is the feasible? It is important that he gets consistent playing time early in the season. It will help his bat and the Twins need his energy. There shouldn't be any game that Nunez or Robinson are in the line up with Eduardo on the bench. "Eddie 500" - Molitor needs to figure it out. Coming Soon - "Everyday Eddie"
  2. jorgenswest
    If the fifth starter can pitch at replacement level, it probably has the cost of 1 win. Twin fifth starters haven't been that successful so maybe it will be two wins. That might be critical to a team fighting for the wild card but it doesn't change the 2015 outlook for the Twins.
  3. jorgenswest
    One was a 20 year old kid in rookie ball. The other is a 10 year major league veteran with a salary that will set him up for life many times over. He was brought in to be a leader on the team. Neal Allen talked about his mentoring Berrios and they purposely paired them in the same game. He is role model for children in his country. His response about not knowing he had an old school steroid in his body is impossible to believe. This is something that is taken daily and methodically.
  4. jorgenswest
    Pelfrey has worked hard to come back through two difficult injuries. He has done so without the apparent help of PEDs. I look forward to seeing him pitch and hope he has a career year. I really hope that whichever 5 starters the Twins have in the rotation when Santana is eligible return are doing a respectable enough job to keep him out of the rotation.
  5. jorgenswest
    ZIPs projected Santana at 9-11 with a 4.64 ERA and 0.7 WAR. Steamer was more favorable at 11-13 and 4.36 for 1.5 WAR. Cut either in half. How will the Twins fans accept him at half that performance? Decline it over three more years. They will be lucky to get 3-4 WAR out of him over the course of the contract. Santana doesn't lose much here. He still gets almost 50 million. The Twins lose what would very likely be his best season as a Twin and pay big for the decline. I don't think the Twins make the playoffs until he is gone.
  6. jorgenswest
    I generally agree. However, I think Pinto's bat is needed on the bench and then it comes down to a choice of Nunez and Herrmann. Nunez doesn't offer anything on the bench. Molitor said he doesn't see him in the outfield. The Yankees dropped him because he couldnt handle 2B. His only real position is 3B. Escobar is the better utility option defensively and overall. He needs to be in the lineup every opportunity. Any Nunez gets takes away from him. Pinto is the better right handed bench bat. Robinson runs well. It seems like Herrmann and his ability to catch and play the outfield and first helps more. He also can shuttle back and forth when the need for the 13th pitcher surfaces. Ultimately it could be neither if both Hicks and Rosario do well.
  7. jorgenswest
    I write about the 4 year outlook for Santana a while back. http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-6349-what-can-the-twins-expect-from-santana-and-nolasco/ The Twins really needed to bank on his first two years. He looked to decline to a number 5 starter or worse the last two years. That was assuming he wasn't helped by steroids. If the evidence is there and confirmed, release him. Do it today.
  8. jorgenswest
    The Twins need to release him today. He was a number 4 starter using steroids. Off the steroids he will decline fast. He is of no use to the Twins. He has no trade value. They are not going to sell more tickets in games he starts. He just takes a spot that needs to go to the future. Maybe this will stop Terry from bringing in veterans to be role models and mentors. .
  9. jorgenswest
    The Blue Jays pick up Dubrount. I guess the Twins have no spave on the fringe of the roster for guys in their 20s. McGowan would fit all of the things the Twins look for in their low leverage players.
  10. jorgenswest
    I found some comps of players with a similar age and performance through age 28 while thinking about Schafer last fall. Not too many Brady Andersons. In fact only one. http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-6225-jordan-schafer-breakout-or-bust/
  11. jorgenswest
    How about Louis Coleman? In his favor, he has a 3.25 ERA and 185 strike outs in 174 major league innings. He would be under team control until 2018. He will be 29. On the other hand, he wasn't very good in 34 innings last year. The Twins have the older Pelfrey, Stauffer and Boyer under team control through this season. Wouldn't Coleman be a better fit? Are they so valuable that it isn't worth risking the upside of Coleman?
  12. jorgenswest
    I agree. He is the kind of player that teams projected for 90 losses should give two months. If he looks OK as hid did last summer, give him another two months.
  13. jorgenswest
    His other two years of more than semi regular play he put up an OPS of just under 600. Steamer and ZIPs projection fall on both sides of 600. This is probably his peak season and the Twins play in a park that boosts offense so maybe a really optimistic OPS is 630. In a strict platoon maybe he can approach 700. If he is in the low 600s on June 1, I hope the Twins will look elsewhere. ZIPs and Steamer like Gose much better than Schafer. His CF metrics are better. He is at a age and experience level in his career where a jump up is much more likely. It is really hard to buy an argument that Schafer will outperform him with the bat or the glove. If the White Sox offered Gose for Schafer, the Twins should take it and run.
  14. jorgenswest
    If you search BR play index for all relief pitchers (no starts) and over 100 innings and sort by WAR, you will find Boyer at the bottom of that list with -1.8 WAR. This is not just active relievers. It is any reliever ever. No one has performed worse. We might wait a little while before writing him in next year's roster. Fien was very good when he had a strike out rate of 30% and not very good when he was at 20%. The lower strikeout rate does not mix well with his extreme fly ball rate. It is often written that he wore down last year, but his strike out rate was down all year and written about before his collapse. He needs to be closer to the 30 than the 20 with his fly ball rate or he won't be on a roster in a year. We might also wait a little while on Graham who couldn't get minor league hitters out last year. Perkins is the only one that can reasonably be expected to be in a major league bullpen next year. Let's hope his arm troubles at the end of last year are behind him.
  15. jorgenswest
    I think you will be able to say this about every player that is DFA'd. You could have said it about Martinez last year. You could have said it about Schafer. You can probably still say it about Schafer who at -1.9 will have the lowest WAR among all players on 25 man rosters. If they keep Nunez, he will have a chance to catch him. Among active players with over 1000 PAs, they are the lowest in terms of WAR. Whoever the Twins might claim will have a small chance of upside. That small chance is better than some of the older players on the roster. The bar for claiming Brown or any 4th OF is Robinson. The bar for claiming any pitcher is extremely low also. The Twins have a reliever on the roster who has the lowest career WAR at -1.8 of any pitcher in the history baseball with over 100 innings and no starts. He might not even be the first guy they should drop out of the bullpen. Note: I used baseball reference's play index and corresponding WAR.
  16. jorgenswest
    Last year JD Martinez was DFA'd and now is a starting LF for the Tigers. Twins should be looking for help at catcher, centerfield and the bullpen. They should be looking for younger players with upside. First up... Gary Brown was DFA'd by the Giants. He plays center field. He bats right handed. He is 26 and made top prospect lists a few years back. Felix Doubront was released by the Cubs. The 27 year old left handed pitcher had some success a few years back. Every one of these players will be flawed or they wouldn't have been waived. Someone will be this year's JD Martinez. I hope the Twins will risk losing an older mediocre veteran in hopes of finding that player.
  17. jorgenswest
    There are baseball reasons why teams underperform their pythagorean projection. One reason is a bad bullpen. The Twins bullpen was 29th last year. Last years Twins were not a 75 win team. They had an opportunity to fix a really bad bullpen. Does it looked like they fixed it? Will we be writing next year that in spite on winning 70 games, their pythagorean projection had them at 73?
  18. jorgenswest
    I have plenty of thoughts on the Twins management and their building for the future. In this thread, I only want to appreciate Boyer and his hard work that earned him a spot in the majors. By all accounts a good man, hard worker and hopefully a good story.
  19. jorgenswest
    I would love to see the source about the Hicks part of the story (with Twins irritation). Looked for the 2012 original sources and could not find anything. Thanks for the help.
  20. jorgenswest
    Seems like they could have began Pelfrey's transition much earlier. Now we have a long reliever that can't come in the middle of an inning until he is comfortable. Let's start the year with that additional burden on the rest of the bullpen. Isn't a long man almost always needed mid inning? I guess they could use him as an 8th inning guy who less often is needed to come in and put out a fire. This could have been foreseen. It is well known that Pelfrey's performance drops off with runners on base. It is also know that he has a long warm up routine.
  21. jorgenswest
    I hope you are right about Garver's defense. His reports out of college questioned his defense. It is a long way from Low A to the majors especially for a catcher with only 86 games behind the plate professionally. I would guess there is less than a 10% chance he will have a 5 year run as a starting catcher. Fernandez is behind him and several levels away from the majors. Pinto was in Low A in 2010. There is a lot to learn at the catcher spot. No one thought he was 2-3 years awy at that point. There is little data to use to measure catching. Garver has thrown out 33% of runners in the minors. Pinto 32%. Garver has a passed ball about every 7 games. Pinto 1 per 9 games. I think the Twins could be wise to invest in a young catcher.
  22. jorgenswest
    While I agree with with Thrylos about D'Arnaud, Escobar should only be moved for another up the middle player. Catcher needs to be a priority. There is no catcher in the organization that profiles solidly both offensively and defensively. Trading Escobar or Santana for a good young catcher would be a good move. They might add one of the Chatanooga bullpen arms to get the talent they need at catcher.
  23. jorgenswest
    I think a team projected for 90 losses should be searching the waivers for guys like Felix Dubront to pitch the low leverage innings rather than decline phase veterans that will not be part of the solution. If Stauffer or Boyer don't have the talent to be late inning guys, they should not have a place on this roster.
  24. jorgenswest
    The decision to sign Hunter can only work out if mentoring is a thing and he is a skilled mentor. It guarantees poor defense and no future upside. It is the kind of decision that continues the cycle of mediocrity. A better defender should have been a priority. The decision to go with Schafer is a risk that teams projected for 90 losses can take. Give him two months. See if the talent once seen in him comes to the front. If not, turn it over to one of Hicks, Rosario or Buxton. They do need to find someone with more upside than Robinson. watch the DFA lists.
  25. jorgenswest
    There is no game data to collect in spring that would help project which pitcher will perform better. It has to be based on the eyes of the personnel and nothing else. Better numbers in a small spring sample do not mean a pitcher is throwing better. The Twins staff believes that Milone gives the Twins a better chance to win than Pelfrey. They need to start Milone. Let's hope they are right.
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