jorgenswest

If he doesn't show he is a league average pitcher, they won't be able to clear salary by trading him for nothing.

The Twins have invested over 100 million dolars in their pitching rotation buying 8 seasons of starting pitching. What can they expect for their $100,000,000? I started with Ervin Santana looking for a similar group. From ages 27-31 he has performed at a 99 ERA+ with about 1000 innings pitched. I wondered how other groups of pitchers performed from ages 27-31. With the help of BR's play index, I searched for all pitchers since 1975 who have pitched at least 900 innings in their age 27 through 31 seasons. There are 128 pitchers headed by Pedro Martinez and his 228 ERA+ through ages 27-31. The top is loaded with current or future Hall of Famers. I won't be comparing Santana to them. Time for a little sidetrack. Why ERA+? I used ERA+ to adjust for era and ballpark. While a single season of ERA does not predict future ERA as well as FIP or xFIP, a sample size of around 1000 innings does a good job. At that sample, it is more likely to wonder why a players FIP is far different than his ERA and speculate which skill set caused them to outperform or underperform their FIP. For the whole group, it didn't surprise me that the FIP and ERA were within 2% as FIP is supposed to project ERA. Another note on FIP. I looked at players who had FIP over those 5 years significantly different than their ERA. Ricky Nolasco and Ervin Santana can be found at different end of that spectrum. Nolasco has a far better FIP (3.75) than ERA (4.51) and Santana has a better ERA (3.88) than FIP (4.21). Should the Twins hope on Nolasco's FIP while at the same time ignore Santana's? Though FIP might indicate otherwise, I suspect Santana is the better pitcher and ERA at this sample size can be trusted at least equally with FIP. Sidetrack#2 Ricky Nolasco is in the list. He ranks 127 out of 128 with his ERA+ of 87 from ages 27-31. I can't come up with a good comp group for Nolasco. Very few pitchers can pitch at below a mid #4 starter through their peak seasons and be given the ball enough times to gather at least 900 innings. Even if his poor 31 year old season is thrown out and ages 26-30 are used instead, you get a 90 ERA+. That moves him ahead of Jaime Navarro for the 126 spot on the list. Sidetrack#3 I was surprised to see Dennis Martinez at number 128. He had a very interesting and unexpected career after age 31. At 32 he was traded with a player to be named laster (catcher John Stefaro) to the Expos for a player to be named later in Rene Gonzalez. The Orioles had essentially given him away. Martinez was named to the first of 4 all star games at age 36 and pitched until he was 44. I am not sure what he changed once he joined the Expos but walks were down, strike out were up and hit batsmen were way up after the trade. Sidetrack#4 I had play index help set levels for starter numbers. I looked at over the last 10 seasons (and 1500 pitchers with the most starts per season) and sorted starters by ERA+ grouping them in sets of 300. The 150th rank should be the mid of the number 1 starters. Starters ranked around 300 would be strong #2/fringe #1 starters. I have done this before and the results were similar. Number ERA+ #1 133 (121- ) #2 114 (107-121) #3 100 ( 95-107) #4 90 ( 84- 95) #5 76 ( - 84) So a pitcher like Nolasco had the performance of a number 4 starter at the time the Twins signed him. Back to Ervin Santana. Of the 128 pitchers in the group, Santana ranked 106 with an ERA+ of 99. The 99s ran from 106-111. That isn't very exciting as a rank but it is possible to build a group of pitchers on both sides of his performance. I chose a group that included 16 pitchers below and above him. They had ERA+ ranging from 95 to 103. The group can be found here I then had to throw out some of the pitchers. I don't know how Jason Vargas will perform after age 31. He is the same age as Santana. Some guys like Rick Langford, Erick Hanson or Russ Ortiz were injured in their age 31 season. Theie careers were over as a result. One guy was in prison. I kept Mike Scott and Dave Stewart though they had significantly better age 31 seasons and would probably earned a contract somewhere around Lester. It would be really nice of I knew how to do tables. The image above is a picture of a table. Not sure if it is a link or picture. The results can also be found on sheet 2 of the google doc. Essentially of the remaining 26 pitchers in the group 13 performed with an ERA+ of 94 or better and 13 below. I think it is reasonable to expect Santana to perform as a number 3/4 starter next year. The group changes to size 25 at age 33 as Eckersley became a closer. There number of pitchers that performed at or above 94 is now 10 and there are 11 pitchers either did not pitch or would be classified as a number 5 pitcher. The median is a number 4 pitcher with a 40% of the group performing better. The median drops to number 5 starter at age 34 and not starting at age 35. How will Santana Perform? If Santana follows the age curve of similar pitchers the Twins might expect for him to start as a fringe #3 next year and decline to a #4, #5 and possibly the bullpen in the following years. There is hope that at age 34, 32% performed at least at an ERA+ of 94. The number drops to 16% at age 35 but it isn't 0%. Nolasco doesn't have enough comps that have pitched similarly. They have one bad season out of him. Is it reasonable to hope that they will get a number 4 and maybe a number 5 out of him in the next three years. Maybe not. 2016 and Beyond It looks as if the Twins can hope to have filled their number 4 and 5 pitching slots in 2016 with their $100,000,000. They just to fill in the top 3. Let's hope it comes from Hughes, Meyer, May, Gibson or Berrios. That is a lot to expect of a young pitcher. It might be better to sign a top of the rotation guy and fill the 4-5 slots with young pitchers struggling to adjust to the majors. As for 2017, they really need those young pitchers to adjust quickly so they have the pitching to back up the young hitters. They could have a lot of money committed to two guys fighting for the number 5 spot.

Walker starting in AA isn't a push. He needs to be there. Earning a move to Rochester mid season would give him unquestioned prospect status. At 23 if he can't earn a spot in AA to start the season after two full seasons in A ball, it is very unlikely he will have a major league career of any significance.

How do they best use these assets? The Royals traded some and brought others up quickly.

Simply cite the first hand report characterizing Milone as a complainer. The original Rosenthal report for fox sports and the Gleeman report for hardtalk simply started he asked to be traded. Kurt Suzuki's take on Tommy Milone

Do these over/under lines move as money comes in? If so and if the Twins over/under number is unreasonably low, it will move.

Why take a shot at his character? I can't find anything in reports other than a guy who loves baseball, works hard and did not want to get sent down to the minors. Do the Twins want an established player who easily accepts a demotion to the minors? He requested a trade after being sent down with a 3.84 ERA in nearly 500 innings. He had options. Other guys didn't. I hope he and his wife don't look at this stuff. If so, they must be secretly hoping that he can move to a team where the fan base has better character.

The use of "complain" and "demand" are words that carry a connection to attitude and paint the picture of a guy sulking in the AAA clubhouse. Ken Rosenthal has the original report that was repeated by many outlets "Left-hander Tommy Milone has asked the club to trade him, major-league sources tell FOX Sports. The A’s sent Milone to Triple-A on July 5 after acquiring right-handers Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel from the Chicago Cubs. It is not unusual for players to request trades after getting demoted. Milone, though, is more established than most – in 468 2/3 major-league innings, he has a 3.84 ERA." That gives me a different picture. Ask is different from demand. No mention of complain. I don't see attitude in that report. I would hope established players would not easily accept a demotion to AAA. He has an option left. The Twins would be wise to use it if he doesn't earn the fifth starter job. There will be an opportunity if he returns to form in AAA and the Twins are better off keeping him stretched out. I would expect he would work his tail off to get back to the majors either with the Twins or through trade.

Are we confident in the Twins handling and devloping of Alex Meyer? Does he need more time in AAA? Should he have been called up last June? We don't really know what has kept the Twins from calling up Alex Meyer. We speculate it is his walk rate. How unusual is it for a pitcher with his stuff to give up a lot of walks in AAA? How would other teams respond? Are we confident in the Twins handling and devloping of Alex Meyer? Does he need more time in AAA? Should he have been called up last June? We don't really know what has kept the Twins from calling up Alex Meyer. We speculate it is his walk rate. How unusual is it for a pitcher with his stuff to give up a lot of walks in AAA? How would other teams respond? Do all teams wait for their pitchers with good stuff to manage their walk rates? Here are some pitchers and their walks per 9 innings in AAA prior to coming to the majors. Hernandez 4.9 Price 4.6 Lester 4.3 Samardzija 4.2 Ventura 3.9 Kershaw (no AAA but AA was 3.9 in 16 starts) Kluber 3.9 Scherzer 3.7 (4.9 in AA) It isn't unusual for pitchers who throw hard and have good stuff to walk batters in AAA. Why does their walk rate per 9 go down in the majors? I am not sure. I would imagine that better hitters put the ball in play before a walk results. AAA hitters may be experienced enough to lay off a pitch they can't hit or they foul it off. Longer counts and more walks result. It could also be the quality of the umpiring. High walk rates do not stop other teams from bringing up their pitchers with good stuff to the majors. I think some teams would have brought Alex Meyer to the majors last June. Is it the Twins plan to wait until Meyer brings his walk rate down before bringing him up to the majors? I hope not. That might not happen until his stuff isn't as good and the AAA hitters start putting the ball in play more often. View full article

DocBauer brought up minor league experience. It is hard to compare innings in the lower minirs with some getting those innings in college. I have listed below innings in AA/AAA. I added AA in order to make sure Meyer's season cut short by injury was included. Hernandez 24 Price 21 Lester 52 Samardzija 59 Ventura 31 Kershaw 16 Kluber 87 Scherzer 26 Alex Meyer's 40 AA/AAA starts is on the bigger side of the middle of that group. It certainly wouldn't keep teams from calling him up. His walk rate wouldn't keep teams from calling him up either. Consistency? All of those pitchers were inconsistent with their control. They all had bad starts. Want consistency in the minors? Look for a control pitcher like Albers. The Twins are waiting for something that won't reasonably happen in a pitcher with great stuff.

Are we confident in the Twins handling and developing of Alex Meyer? Does he need more time in AAA? Should he have been called up last June? We don't really know what has prevented the Twins from calling up Alex Meyer. We speculate it is his walk rate. How unusual is it for a pitcher with his stuff to give up a lot of walks in AAA? How would other teams respond? Do all teams wait for their pitchers with good stuff to manage their walk rates? Here are some pitchers and their walks per 9 in AAA prior to coming to the majors. Hernandez 4.9 Price 4.6 Lester 4.3 Samardzija 4.2 Ventura 3.9 Kershaw (no AAA but AA was 3.9 in 16 starts) Kluber 3.9 Scherzer 3.7 (4.9 in AA) It isn't unusual for pitchers that throw hard and have good stuff to walk batters in AAA. Why does their walk per 9 go down in the majors? I am not sure. I would imagine that better hitters put the ball in play before a walk results. AAA hitters may be experienced enough to lay off a pitch they can't hit or foul it off. Longer counts and more walks result. It could be the quality of the umpiring. High walk rates does not stop other teams from bringing up their pitchers with good stuff to the majors. I think some teams would have brought Alex Meyer to the majors last June. Is it the Twins plan to wait until Meyer brings his walk rate down before bringing him up to the majors? I hope not. That might not happen until his stuff isn't as good and the AAA hitters start putting the ball in play more often.

Is this an argument to go with a veteran? Meyer and May will likely struggle. I would have given all of Correia's starts to them last year, but I am not certain they would have performed better in their rookie year. I do think that there second 25 starts would be better than their first 25. I doubt Viola brought in many fans in his first 50 starts.

I still don't see the upside of a low leverage relief role. It does nothing to develop a talent for the future, the role has little impact on the team's won loss record and there is no trade market for low leverage relievers. It does hurt the future to give him that role only to see him leave at the end of the year. They just develop any potential relief talent for another team's benefit in 2016.

They need a lot more top third of the league players to get into the top third of the standings and be in contention.

So even if he has a better defensive UZR measuring closer to his true ability and therefore an increase in defensive WAR, the actual impact on the Twins in the won loss column could be negligible. As for the three years, I would add that offensive stats other than strikeouts and walks also need the three years to get a true picture and make projections.

Just wondering... If he improves in defensive metrics, does that translate to improved to defense and hence fewer runs given up. Is it possible that his defense will remain the same and only the metric will change?

I don't see the pedigree. His performance drops much more than the norm with runners on base. Any relief role would need to be one that starts an inning. Mid game relievers don't have that luxury. I also wonder if he has the kind of arm that can pitch on back to back days. Suppose he puts up good numbers in low leverage relief appearances. What is the upside for the Twins? He gets a year to adjust to the role and is somewhere else in 2016. Low leverage relievers won't be in demand at the deadline. No reason to keep him in hopes of trade value. They just lose the opportunity to give those innings to someone with upside. Best case- Pelfrey wins the fifth starter job and puts up a league average ERA before he is traded. Worst case- he plays out the year as a low leverage reliever before hitting fee agency Unthinkable case- he gets extended after a few months of good relief numbers. Liveable case - he doesn't win the fifth starter job and is released

There is a difference between spring training performance and spring training stats. Spring training stats are meaningless. They should not be kept or reported. Spring training performance is about the velocity, movement and command of his pitches. The skill of the staff in assessing his ability to contribute to the team based on the way he throws as seen in work outs and games is critical in determing whether he is released or wins the fifth starter spot.

If Viola had come up when Hendriks did there is no way the current management would have had the patience through his awful first two years. He was very good for the rest of his Twin career. The Twins font win the World Series without him and the patience they gave him to develop. As far as the fan base, many want wins today and don't get that it can take 50 starts or 1000 plate appearances. I am sure many wrote similarly about Dozier through over 500 PA's. He hit that mark in May of his second season and his OPS was in the 500s on June 1. It has been pretty good since.

They still don't need to sign decline phase guys. Those players guarantee a cycle of mediocrity. They could have given the younger players they had longer more consistent looks. Giving away worley when he isn't even taking a spot on the 40 and giving innings to Correia who has no possibility of upside in one of many things they could have done differently. Why not seek only guys with upside on the waiver wire than use a record number of thirty year olds last year? If only 1 in 10 is JD Martinez, they are better off long term. Even if they sign guys and they do well, they are allowed to trade them. Why not sell high on Suzuki, Willingham, Burton, or Doumit. Instead they get one good year and nothing long term. How many good years out of 8 will they get out of Santana and Nolasco? The Twins have consciously chosen to patch with decline phase players that have no upside and are worse off going into 2015. Had they instead gone exclusively with upside guys, they would have lost more games. They would also have a few more pieces with team control to go along with better picks in the draft. How many starts would the 82 or 99 Twins have invested in May and Meyer? How much major league catching experience would Pinto have had he been on those teams? Would those teams have given Buxton or Rosario or Sano a chance to win a job or would they sign Hunter?

He is a valuable player to a team right now in a platoon/4th OF role. His OPS against left handed pitching last year was .792. That is far better than Arcia (574), Vargas(602) and Mauer(650). It was better than Willingham, Plouffe, Santana and Pinto did against left handed pitching. Add his ability to left handed pitching with his defense that can be plus in a corner and adequate defense in center field and you have a valuable player. He did this at 24 and will get better. Even at 23, his OPS against left handed pitching was .758. If not the Twins, some team will find a way to use him to highlight the talent he brings to the field. It might not be the Twins or many on this board who can only see his deficiencies. I think the Twins might be wise to find a spot for a guy who was one of their better hitters against left handed pitching that also can provide defense on a corner better than their planned starters.

The Twin did clear out the veterans a few years earlier trading or allowing to become free agents Borgmann, Goltz, Zahn, Marshall, Cubbage, Morales, Landreaux, Jackson, Koosman and Powell in 1980-1981. They did not sign or get back in trade any decline decline phase players. Instead they went very young with an average age of 25 and 26 in 1982 and 1983. Those players grew into the core of some successful teams. They did a similar purge after 1998 going from one of their oldest roster to one of their youngest in 1999-2000. The last 4 years isn't disimmilar from the mid 90s where they continued to bring in decline phase veterans as short term patches hoping to be competitive. It really wasn't until after they cleared house that they laid the foundation for the string of success in the 2000s. So clearing out the roster is a strategy. The results in 1983 were a result of the clearing. They had backed up the truck a few years earlier though. The truck was back in 1998 and I have been looking for it again since 2011.