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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    A difference between Plouffe and Dozier compared to the previously mentioned Span, Seager and Gyorko is the age in which they would hit free agency ending team control. I hope the Twins management has the belief that there is a significant difference between losing a player at age 30 and losing a player at age 32. They extended Span through age 31 with option. They don't need to do that with Dozier and Plouffe. They have those seasons under team control. It doesn't matter the player. No player projects to play better at age 32 than age 30. No random large group of players performs better as a group at age 32 than age 30. Extending contracts so that a big portion of the contract value is during the age 32-33 seasons is going to make them very difficult to trade. Teams signing free agents don't have a choice. They have to pay for the decline. The Twins don't need to pay for the decline of players under team control through the typical peak.
  2. jorgenswest
    Gyorko was a college draftee. Seager was a college draftee. Dozier may have been on a fast track, but he also had the full track. Seager and Gyorko played A Ball the summer they were drafted. On the short track, both had their first full season in the majors at 24. Dozier was 26. The Twins get two more years of control through the aging curve.
  3. jorgenswest
    The A's traded number 1 starter Rich Harden for four young players in 2008. Rich Harden was a sell high and the trade was seen by some as a steal for the Cubs. One of the prospects in return on a buy low was Josh Donaldson. He was their number 7 prospect going into 2008 and was having a bad season. He certainly had fallen out of their top 10. Somehow the A's scouts always make these deals work. Will it be Brett Lawrie? Is he traded 5 years from now for another 4 guys? Will it be the 18 year old SS prospect? Do the A's see something in those starting pitching prospects? I don't know. They continue to win by selling high. It works because of the success of their scouting department finding the right guys.
  4. jorgenswest
    Does the no trade clause go away once traded to another club?
  5. jorgenswest
    What would the A's do with Plouffe?
  6. jorgenswest
    What would the A's do with Dozier and Plouffe? With Dozier, I think they hold one more year and hope for another similar performance before selling high.
  7. jorgenswest
    These aging curves were based on July 1 age. Plouffe fits in as age 32.125 on that date in 2018. Players with later starts like Dozier and Plouffe would fit in the green line. We don't know which players will decline quicker, but as a group decline starts showing up for 5000 PA players after 32 and earlier for players with less plate appearances. http://www.hardballtimes.com/wp-content/images/tht/image007.png The graph below splits the eras. We might argue that players declined later because of current nutrition and working out routines. On the other hand, it has been argued that the 1980-2008 era was one of steroid use and that use allowed players to perform longer and recover from injury quicker. http://www.hardballtimes.com/wp-content/images/tht/image002.png As a group, it is better to bet on a player's performance remaining level through 30-31 rather than paying the bulk of an extension in their age 32-33 seasons. Is there something special about Plouffe (or Dozier) that would cause them to be among the minority of players that decline at a later age?
  8. jorgenswest
    Baseball Reference must be incorrect about Plouffe's status. They have first free agency as 2018 which is his 32 year old season. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/plouftr01.shtml ... or maybe it is just a difference in how age is listed (opening day vs. July 1). In any case, the Twins should treat this situation differently than those of Seager, Walker or Span.
  9. jorgenswest
    Reading through the two discussions, I think I have settled in on a position which isn't consistent with some of my earlier statements. You have helped to change my thinking. Plouffe and Dozier are very similar cases. They both hit arb1 during there age 29 season and the Twins don't lose team control until age 32. Neither is so great that the Twins couldn't afford any 1 year arb award they may earn. The Twins will be able to pay them what they earn. The two most mentioned comps in Seager and Walker differ in one very important attribute. They hit arb1 at 27 and team control is lost at age 30. Those 30 and 31 year old seasons are worth protecting. Span would have hit arb 1 earlier also. The Twins extended Span though his age 31 season. It is best for the Twins to go year to year with both. There are no bad one year contracts. One year contracts are the most flexible to trade. There isn't enough savings to be found in extending them. Worst case by not signing. The pair plays really well and it costs the Twins in payroll. It might even amount to the difference of a Correia or Pelfrey level free agent signing. Worst case by signing. They regress towards career norms and the Twins have contracts that are difficult to move. I am convinced the Twins should say no to both.
  10. jorgenswest
    I know the rangers gave Kinsler an extension that declined as he went into his 30s. Those contracts are pretty rare. Maybe they shouldn't be.
  11. jorgenswest
    Great discussion starter. I would say no if I were the Twins. I wouldn't want to touch the age 33 season. I liked Doc Bauer's idea in the Dozier thread. They appear to have the money this year. If the salaries don't escalate he stays a little easier to trade. How about 4/34 with no escalation? Who would say no?
  12. jorgenswest
    ... or you were forced to leave your homeland and families permantly when leaving Cuba. Imagine the worry about his family as he was aware of the violence and turmoil whole leaving knowing he could not return. Minoso, of course, encountered the same worry late in his career as Fidel was coming into power. The time span from 1959 to 1962 was incredibly difficult in Cuba. Oliva's family lost their farm, land and livelihoods. The opportunity to play baseball and travel had diminished considerably than in Minoso's time in Cuba. On the baseball field, they both had careers that started late due to circumstances out of their control. Oliva had a better first 8 years. Minoso had two more above average years beyond the first 8. They both are worthy of the Hall of Fame, but I don't see Minoso as clearly the better candidate which is where the discussion started.
  13. jorgenswest
    I guess we disagree about whether or not an arbiter would see Walker as clearly inferior.
  14. jorgenswest
    AJ is a good comparison. He was traded during the winter of his first arbitration bump. The Giants nontendered him before arb2. Plouffe is at the same spot this winter. He will have less value heading into arb 2 which will be a significant bump up. If there is a time to trade him, now is he time. The Twins sold high on Pierzynski. They can sell high on Plouffe. They can extend him. Doing nothing is probably a mistake.
  15. jorgenswest
    Just a little confused. I am sure Minoso and Oliva played a lot of ball before being signed at age 22. I am not sure why playing in the Negro Leagues as many Cubans did in the summer before returning to play in Cuba or the Cuban League makes a difference. They had to play somewhere to be discovered. In Tony's time coming to the US was more difficult so his experience was in Cuba instead of America. I don't buy that playing in the Negro Leagues from age 20-22 makes Minoso a better candidate for the hall.
  16. jorgenswest
    I hope so. Like Terry Doyle, his age and experience give him the best shot at helping a team as a number 5 starter next year. Also like Doyle, he doesn't have much upside beyond back end starter. I'd rather they take a chance on an upside guy they have to stash on the roster for a year.
  17. jorgenswest
    Walker is projected for a better season next year. Projections need to be based on 3-5 years and Walker has been consistently strong longer. His projection from steamer of 3.4 compared to 2.9 for Dozier is pretty close so the comp is a good one. I don't think any arbiter would accept the clearly inferior argument, but the number aspect makes sense.
  18. jorgenswest
    He is projected for a 2.9 WAR (steamer) next year which is between his last two seasons. If he were to continue to be a 3 WAR player through his arbitration seasons, what would he earn in arbitration? I am not sure, but I think the answer to yes or no can be found by studying that progression. The Twins say no unless they get a significant savings in the above deal compared to arbitration. If I am the Twins, I do say no to buying that first year of free agency at age 33. Instead, they still have the option of tendering. The 5/33 contract is much easier to trade. It is going to be difficult to trade a contract where half of its value is in the age 32-33 seasons.
  19. jorgenswest
    Both were signed at 22 and played in the minors from 22-24. Both played baseball prior to signing. Minoso played in Cuba and then for the New York Cubans in the Negro Leagues for parts of three seasons. Oliva played in the Cuban League, but had he been in Minoso's era he would certainly have joined him in the Negro Leagues. I don't see any difference or how the 250 at bats in the Negro League might distinguish Minoso over Oliva. http://sabr.org/bioproj/person/244de7d2
  20. jorgenswest
    Kiner is another interesting comparison. His first 8 seasons combined for a 155 OPS+. That is Hall of Fame worthy.
  21. jorgenswest
    An exhaustive list and player capsules from Baseball America http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/notable-players-available-rule-5-draft/
  22. jorgenswest
    The are similar. Like Oliva, Minoso had a cup of coffee at age 23 and became a regular at 25. In his first 8 seasons, he nearly matches Oliva's OPS+ of 140 at 137. Minoso remained healthy and put up two more above average seasons for his position. I think they are very comparable candidates. Minoso has 2 extra seasons that Tony lost to health. Minoso was a LF so Tony has a defensive edge. They also compare similarly to Rusty Staub.
  23. jorgenswest
    I don't disagree that the a Twins can put a guy in RF with limited range as long as the other two guys have good range. They already have a good limited range candidate in house with Arcia in RF. They don't need two RFs. They need a LF with range.
  24. jorgenswest
    I am not looking to give him away. I just think he may be at peak value this winter for the reasons stated above. I will add that any team can take on his contract this year. As he continues into years 2 and 3 of arbitration that may not be the case. The downside of selling high is that a productive player gets traded and as argued above Plouffe may be the answer for several years. It is really on the Twins staff to accurately project what they have in Plouffe. Will he be an above average 3B over the next 4 years? If so, extend him this winter and buy out his arbitration years and his first year of free agency. Was last year a peak and is his long term value in a platoon role as it looked going into 2014? If so, try to get a return worthy of an above average regular 3B. The Twins need to get this right this winter.
  25. jorgenswest
    With the recent signings of Seager and Sandoval, it might be the time to trade Plouffe. Thirdbaseman must be in demand. He may have his best year behind him in 2014. Target Field was the number 2 in offense park factor. His splits were much better at home last year. He is at an age when many players have a career year. I think it is the right time to sell high on Plouffe.
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