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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Once they have chosen a direction, I think they need to see it through. I think they expected Pinto to hit well. I think they wanted him to get regularly playing time at catcher. Nothing in this short time span should have changed that assessment. Let Pinto get 25 starts at catcher in AAA and then assess his progress behind the plate. I disagree with the decisions on Pinto and bullpen. There will be a time to assess those decisions. It isn't two weeks into a season.
  2. jorgenswest
    Many didn't agree with the roster decisions the Twins made. I hoped they would make some different decisions. Without revisiting each decision, it is important the Twins stay the course. They need to let the season go well into May and reassess. Some samples will no longer be small then. Making and following a plan is far better than reacting to every bad stretch and slump. Injuries will drive some changes. Short time spans should not. Reassess somewhere between 25 and 40 games. I am not sure what we fill the forums with until then, but it is way too early to change course right now.
  3. jorgenswest
    The Twins assessment on Pinto should not have changed. They should have expected Pinto to hit well in AAA. This is their last shot at making him a catcher. Let him get 25 games at catcher and make an assessment. If they believe in his catching, call him up for good and give him a start at catcher in every series.
  4. jorgenswest
    The sample is too small to project. It does describe well what our eyes have seen in the first two weeks. Combine that with reports from his minor league career and there is reason to continue to question whether he can be a regular SS. A year ago, we might have hoped for a Bonifacio type career. I am not sure much has changed since then. He does have the upside of a regular SS and it is well worth investing a good portion of this season to try to realize that upside.
  5. jorgenswest
    At this point, players can not be evaluated based on stats. Whether some is tearing it up or struggling, the stats don't show it. Someone watching the Twins or Red Wing games can assess the approach at the plate and the quality of each at bat. They can assess the quality of contact. They can assess the defense in the outfield. Around 120 plate appearances strike out rate, walk rate, groundball rate and fly ball rate become useful in assessing full time players. Until then the only way to assess the players is to see them in the ballpark every game. A skilled eye can see a change in ability or talent in a much smaller sample. It is those trained eyes in Rochester and Minnesota that the Twins must rely on to make the decision on Hicks, Rosario and Schafer.
  6. jorgenswest
    The Twins have had a few very good seasons from a pitcher since Johan. Liriano was very good in 2010 and Hughes was very good last year. Neither pitcher has been very consistent in his career mixing bad and mediocre seasons with a few very good seasons. I don't think anyone would have projected Phil Hughes to be an ace this year based on his previous 3-5 years. Mix in the Twins defense with a league average FIP and a pitcher with an ERA about 10% above league average is what should be expected. Is that worth the contract the Twins gave him? Probably. The contract does make him much more difficult to trade.
  7. jorgenswest
    Hicks is absolutely a major league platoon/4th OF/late inning defense on a corner. If the Twins don't want to give him that role, some team will give him that role. He is better option than Arcia, Schafer and Robinson against lefties today based on the stats. Mix in defense, he is probably a better option in RF also.
  8. jorgenswest
    Adding some number to Chiefs valued observations and words. The numbers don't necessarily paint the same picture or a more accurate picture, but together build a picture of Pelfrey's performance. Brooks baseball and Fangraphs. Pelfrey threw 4 four seam fastballs yesterday. He used his sinker 44 times. Neither was very effective yesterday. He also threw 16 splitters, 10 curves and 6 sliders. According to fangraphs, the curve ball was most effective and fastball was least effective. Five of 7 balls in play (no out) were off fastballs. His velocity was best early on fitting 96 on pitch 9. It did stay 94-95 through pitch 47. Unfortunately while the velocity was good, the fastballs weren't missing enough bats. It would take some matching with the game account, but I wonder if his velocity or effectiveness also dipped with runners on base. Relievers need to be able to pitch from the stretch and maintain effectiveness.
  9. jorgenswest
    FIP isn't a very useful descriptor when a pitcher struggles with runners on base. Those pitchers tend to have FIPs that are lower than their performance or skill. Throw out the FIP with Pelfrey. Look at performance. How many of those starts in those two months went 7 innings? How did he do with runners on base?
  10. jorgenswest
    This is not the way the Twins have rebuilt in the previous two successful runs. It is how they ran business from 1993-1998. It started about by trying to get the pieces to make a run with the veteran team and ended by trying to give the illusion of a competitive team. Finally in 1999 they stopped spending money on decline phase veterans and went young. They also went young in the early 80s. Both of those rebuilds did not take money. They took patience in the mistakes and struggles of young players. The problem with mixing decline phase mediocre veterans with young players is that the two balance each other. Young players improve and veterans decline and the team record changes very little. It certainly doesn't make the 15-20 game jump necessary to contend. They either need to sign very good players who have space for decline or they need to build a roster full of players with upside and let them grow together.
  11. jorgenswest
    Tigers and White Sox had the same need for CF help and it wasn't cheap. The cost of Adam Eaton was Hector Santiago. The cost of Anthony Gose was Devin Travis. I am not sure we had a match for Hector Santiago to deal last year. Devin Travis is probably a better prospect than Jorge Polanco but they would have been pretty comparable.
  12. jorgenswest
    Milone was fantastic today. His fastball location was perfect and kept White Sox hitters off balance all game. He pounded Abreau inside with success. Great execution by Milone and great sequencing by Suzuki.
  13. jorgenswest
    He needs a long leash. The Twins need to find out if he is a solution. He will have some bad games but it is about growth.
  14. jorgenswest
    Mientkiewicz talks Twins, prospects and managerial philosophy. Great stories from his days with the Twins. Some smart team is going to hire him to be their major league manager. This is a link to episode 51 posted in March. I didn't see it until it came up yesterday as episode 61 through iTunes. Both are the same show
  15. jorgenswest
    We are miles apart on our perception of the Twins role and plan in developing Meyer. You counter any attempt at responsibility on the Twin part. think we just leave it be. I can't be convinced that the Twins have done a good job with Meyer and you can't be convinced that they have done a poor job with him. I hope you are right and the Twins know what they are doing. Meyer couldn't be in better hands.
  16. jorgenswest
    The Twins have really messed him up. His walk per 9 when they acquired him was 3.1. Year 1 with the Twins 3.7. Year 2 4.4. In year 2 his walk rate became worse as the season progressed. The more they tried to "fix" him, the more mixed up he became. Year 3? He deserves to be traded to an organization that has a clue about developing pitching. Some team would put him in the majors and let him work out (or not). It should be clear that the longer he stays in AAA the further he gets from being "ready".
  17. jorgenswest
    The Twins had two opportunities last year. Pelfrey was injured early. At the time Meyer had 5 starts and walked 3.7 per 9. The Twins went with Deduno. It was a small sample but Cleveland brought up Bauer in a small early season sample and Bauer's long term track record was worse. They had an opportunity again in early June when it was clear that Deduno wasn't an answer. At that time Meyer had an ERA of 3.30 and a walk per 9 of 4.0. Again they passed him up for someone like Darnell or Johnson. I don't see how anyone can give the Twins a pass on this. It is too hard to find guys that throw 100+. He is going to struggle. Bauer did. Clevelands patience with his struggle at the major league level is paying off. There is no reason the Twins can't exercise that same patience on a team that was and is going nowhere. What do they have to lose? He is old enough. He has a lot of innings in AA and AAA. It is time.
  18. jorgenswest
    In addition Bauer would never have put on the major league roster as a Twin. His walk rate in AAA, AA and overall was higher than Meyer's.
  19. jorgenswest
    Pythag improves to 0.34 - 161.66 but they still got that underperforming projection and bullpen problem
  20. jorgenswest
    Twins Pythag Projection 0-162 Unfortunately teams with bad bullpens often underperform their projections.
  21. jorgenswest
    This roster was constructed to try to give the illusion of a competitive team. They were counting on mediocre veterans. Molitor has got to go to Ryan and demand some young players with hunger to improve. I don't care if it means more losses. There are too many guys on this team that give no hope for the future.
  22. jorgenswest
    Twins have been looking for outfield help. Tigers too. They found Gose and Martinez. The Twns have found Kubel, Bartlett, Robinson, Schafer and Hunter.
  23. jorgenswest
    I think they need to send Gibson down. Too many walks. They can put Stauffer in the rotation.
  24. jorgenswest
    Herrmann must have concussion symptoms.
  25. jorgenswest
    The 1943 Cardinals didn't score a run in their first 23 innings. That may be the record. The cardinals won 105 games that year.
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