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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Do you think September play is different than other months now that MLB really limits the call ups? Your comment made me wonder and I have my doubts. Looked at box scores the last couple weeks. There are some injuries but that is always true. I don’t think any month by itself is a good sample but I don’t think September is any different than other months any longer.
  2. jorgenswest
    I would have signed him but I am a guy sitting in his couch looking at his 2021-22 stats. The reality is his first two seasons were aided by a low BABIP. When it normalized in 2023 he wasn’t effective. He also refused to report to a minor league assignment in 2023. Is that a sign that he resists doing the hard work required for any major leaguer? It certainly requires daily hard work and persistence to fight back from Tommy John. The Jays let him go in spite of options and a salary they could easily manage. Why not keep him and start him in AAA to begin next year? Was it simply a need for a spot on the 40? Maybe. Santander returned from the 60. They had other options like France who was put in the IL. Could he have been put on the 60 with his oblique injury? They have two older pitchers in AAA they could have DFA’d instead for a spot. Instead they preferred the 29 year old Easton Lucas and his career 8.08 ERA and 31 year old Dillon Tate instead. I don’t think the Jays let him go because of money. I think they thought they had other players more worthy of a 40 man roster spot including Lucas and Tate. Is it possible the teams in front of the Braves made the same assessment?
  3. jorgenswest
    From Inside Twins transcript
  4. jorgenswest
    Some realism… They are 7th in the AL and 2nd in the Central in runs scored since the trade deadline. They are 2nd in the AL in stolen bases since the deadline. The offense has performed better after trading four starters in Correa, Bader, Castro and France. I don’t know how to get a split on OAA but they are 9th of 15 in the AL for the season. Martin and Lewis appear by my eye to be improved. Lewis looks like he finally has his legs under him again. Clemens has been solid wherever they put him. Catcher took a hit when Jeffers and Vazquez were out. Lee is not Correa. Lee is a -2 OAA in 568 innings. Correa was -2 in 773 innings (most with Twins). Some suggest Kiner-Falefa who is -3 in 817 innings. I don’t see the gain. I have no idea how ready Culpepper is for shortstop. His field FV is 45/60. The outfield could be very good next year. More realism… The bullpen has been bad since the deadline. That brings me to this discussion about finding a closer.
  5. jorgenswest
    Indirectly when asked about Jax and Ober as they came up and transitioning or not to relievers. He then talked about how well Prielipp threw the ball and that he could help that group. I am uncertain whether the “group” is the pitching staff or the bullpen.
  6. jorgenswest
    I listened and a base of Buxton, Lopez and Ryan is encouraging.
  7. jorgenswest
    I think they need to bet on the upside of a pitcher that has never been a closer. Mason Miller was a minor league starter that missed most of 2022 with a right scapula injury and missed much of 2023 with a UCL sprain. He finished 2023 pitching 10 games and 6 starts for the A’s. In 2024 he was their closer though he never pitched in relief in the minors. The move to the bullpen was a strategic decision to manage his workload and prevent further injuries, particularly a forearm injury he sustained in 2023, and to utilize his dominant velocity in shorter, high-leverage outings. I am hoping Connor Prielipp follows that path. He dominates with the slider and the workload of a closer may be the best fit.
  8. jorgenswest
    Four pitchers have earned multiple saves for the Brewers this year. One was acquired in a DFA trade. One was acquired as a minor league free agent. One was a failed starter. One was a minor leaguers signed in 2018 in his first full season with the club. Four of the Mariners top 5 relievers were acquired in trade as minor leaguers. The other was a waiver claim. The Guardians have an undrafted free agent, pitchers acquired as minor leaguers in trade, a rule 5 pick up and a drafted failed starter. None of them required significant prospect capital or free agent dollars. Instead the Mariners and Brewers have been trading away established relievers. There is a road map to follow here. It may be the route Falvey chose to take as he navigates difficult payroll restrictions from the owner.
  9. jorgenswest
    I think he is a waiver claim so picking him up would mean tendering him for arbitration. As a waiver claim the Twins probably have a better shot at getting him as opposed to a free agent who has cleared waivers. His 4 seam fastball velocity in AAA was 91.0 when he returned this year. It was 93.7 and 93.9 on his successful seasons. His best pitch was his sinker. It was on both sides of 93 his successful seasons. It was 91.2 in AAA this year. His walk rate in the minors this year was 12.8%. It was 8.7% and 6.5% in his successful seasons. I would sign him and give him a shot as a reliever. My fear is the Twins won’t cut him loose if his control and velocity does not return.
  10. jorgenswest
    Fair enough. I won’t find debating whether someone should have challenged or not entertaining. I don’t want a loss or win to hinge on whether someone challenged a strike/ball call. If it is clear I will be more entertained if they get it right.
  11. jorgenswest
    The NFL also has the expedited review which keeps the flow of the game. ABS is more like that. No one needs to watch replays of the pitch from multiple angles. The result is clear and immediate as it is for the expedited review. Use ABS if it’s accurate. If accurate it doesn’t make any sense to let bad calls go unchanged that could be changed immediately with no stop in the flow of the game. If it isn’t deemed to be accurate enough for full use it doesn’t make sense to slow the game for a challenge.
  12. jorgenswest
    Didn’t they get the Marlins version of Gordon? Okert had not pitched well in 2023 but the Marlins took him to arbitration hoping to trade him for a living breathing human. They found Gordon. Neither performed well and both remained on the roster for nearly all of the season. Both teams lost this deal and would have been better served with a player from their organization or a minor league signing in the roster. If anything the Marlins won the deal because Gordon’s arb salary was less than Okert’s arb salary.
  13. jorgenswest
    Sometimes they get moved… They tendered Gio Urshela in 2022 and received Alejandro Hidalgo. He pitched in AA with a 6.42 ERA this year. They tendered Gordon and picked up a reliever in Okert who had been tendered by the Marlins in 2024. Neither made it to 2025 and performed poorly on 2024. Sometimes they don’t… They tendered Kyle Farmer and couldn’t move him. He remained on the roster performing poorly all season. How much different was Okert than someone they could have added as a free agent or minor league free agent? Is it worth the risk of not finding a trade for Larnach and retaining him on the roster?
  14. jorgenswest
    My thought also. If it works use it every pitch. If it is flawed don’t use it. The only way the middle ground makes sense is if the flaws have to do with tolerance. If for instance it is known to be accurate within a quarter of an inch then they need to build in that tolerance to overturn a call. In other words to turn a strike into a ball there would need to be at least a quarter inch of spaces between the ball and strike zone.
  15. jorgenswest
    Agree. That isn’t what I said though and I must not have been clear. I think there is value to Matthews in ending the season with a good start and I think Vazquez or Jeffers increase the likelihood of a successful start.
  16. jorgenswest
    I don’t know if the second catcher is going to be the tipping point between winning and losing. They should be looking for an inexpensive second catcher. He might not be it. I honestly don’t know. At times he looked like a major league catcher like the Woods Richardson start. I think it was his next start where he struggled to block pitches, throw out runners and failed to make a play at the plate.
  17. jorgenswest
    A claim and they will be taking him to arbitration. He is arb 2. Do salaries ever go down in arbitration when injury is involved? I think it goes up a little from his 2.2 million this year. Are they better spending those dollars on a reliever? I would do it and pay for some of it by not tendering Topa. Pay for the upside. I guess that doesn’t work if they were already planning to cut Topa loose though.
  18. jorgenswest
    Maybe they made the call on Pereda. If they made the call and will remove him from the 40 at the end of the season I am OK with that. I would rather have Vazquez catching our young pitchers in their last start. If he is still in their plans he should be playing this week.
  19. jorgenswest
    @Cody Schoenmann I appreciate the work and the forward look. It is impossible to name the acquisitions particularly if they are in a similar career place as Castro and Stewart were when they were acquired. They need to bring in a catcher or two to compete with Pereda and hope a once good prospect turns into a useful player. They need to do the same in the middle infield and bullpen. Hoskins may be better than any other 1B option on the roster but I wouldn’t want another 1B on a one year deal and I don’t want Hoskins on a multiyear deal. He did not come back all of the way from his injury and at this age will be declining. I would trade some of their prospect capital for a middle of the lineup bat.
  20. jorgenswest
    None of the three is a top flight prospect. Tolle has the future value (50) of a number four starter. Arias has the same future value from the position player side. Garcia is the next prospect tier down (45+) and high risk of getting to his future value. If true they were wise to keep Ryan. I hope they remain wise this off season.
  21. jorgenswest
    Falvey traded Berrios for prospects and then replaced him by trading our first round pick for Gray. Berrios and Gray were at about the same salary level but they had control of Gray in 2023. I thought it was a brilliant move though some argued the Twins didn’t know what they doing trading for prospects and then trading prospects 6 months later. I also believe every win matters and more competitive games helps the development of the young players. Scoring more runs takes stress off the pitchers. Runners on base make it easier to hit. A better bullpen can put out the fires of inexperienced starters. All of that matters for development. I don’t believe it is the binary of playoff bound or not.
  22. jorgenswest
    They need to hold out for a top flight prospect and more. I said the same for Duran. There is value in keeping him beyond the hope they are competitive next year. Winning matters. It matters to development. His innings matter. It helps the bullpen and in turn will help the younger starters when the they get a more rested bullpen. Even if they can acquire that top prospect they need to build their own and be willing to live through their mistakes.
  23. jorgenswest
    It is much more rare to acquire a talent the level of FV55 or better this decade. In the 2010s teams were willing to trade those top flight prospects like Anthony or Kurtz. Other than DeVries who was acquired for an all star with 5 years of service time, has there been a top flight player moved in the last three seasons? I don’t think they get better than a Martin/Richardson or Tait/Abel type return by trading Ryan or Lopez. I think they were a 50 and 45 using Fangraphs. Just for scale here is the number breakdown from the current fangraphs FV60: 9 prospects FV55: 11 prospects FV50: 79 prospects FV45: 192 prospects FV40: 637 propects How many significant players will result from those 928 prospects or the 908 after the top 20? How many of those 908 are going to need to use up two or three options before they settle in?
  24. jorgenswest
    They have Lopez and Ryan. They have Buxton and some young hitters that should get better. I think it is the right mix to improve many games. Maybe not enough to be a contender but enough to be competitive, The younger players also need to compete and win. They benefit from staying in the race longer. They can spend money and make this team better but they need to do it with an eye on 2027 and 2028. They can’t sign one year stop gap position players. They need to close those gaps. Either acquire a middle of the line up hitter under contract at least two years or go with the upside in the organization. I think they need one veteran middle of the line up hitter. I think they need to be aggressive with their best positional prospects The bullpen is different. They might need to acquire a few one year relievers. If Abel or Matthews or Bradley or Festa aren’t in the rotation put them in the pen. Someone will thrive there. The pen if they are among the 12 best arms. Acquire one or two late inning relievers. They should spend money because spent well they will win more games. Winning games and playing in more competitive games benefits the development of the younger players.
  25. jorgenswest
    I find myself wondering about the scout they retained. I could not have named Wesley Wright as a Twins scout though I would have listened to @Seth Stohs podcast. They let go of three guys I did know in John Manuel, Jose Marzan and Keith Compton as well as Keith Stohr. Wright was the coordinator and by far the youngest of the group.
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