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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    It would take data from his last three seasons on the bench to reliably use his OPS. It is reasonable to question that his numbers last year represent his true skill level. Various projection systems suggest his skill level is closer to an OPS in the 670s or 680s. That would be very good for an average or lightly below defender at SS. Good enough to be a starter. Unfortunately I don't think many or any teams believe he has the glove to be a starting SS. On the Twins he would be their best right handed pinch hitter. If that is the role where he helps the Twins the most, the question becomes whether some other right handed batter might do a better job in that role.
  2. jorgenswest
    Jeff Sullivan wrote this during the 2013 season. "When a guy’s ERA doesn’t match his FIP for a year, usually we don’t mind it. We blame it on sequencing or coincidence. Two years, still, it can be noise. But between 2006-2012, Nolasco threw more than 1,100 innings, which is a pretty enormous sample size. There was reason to believe this was a serious problem." Several hundred innings later and the discrepancy between his performance and peripherals hasn't changed.
  3. jorgenswest
    I don't think the arbitration contract becomes guaranteed until the start of the season. Unless it has changed, teams would owe 30 or 45 days of pay. Neither contract should guarantee a spot because of arbitration. I don't know what is in the minds of the Twins front office, but offering arbitration to those two gives them some depth and security against spring training injury. It is still a good decision if the Twins leave spring healthy and either is beaten out for a job.
  4. jorgenswest
    The competition for the bench starts with Murphy, Santana, Nunez and Arcia. Quentin can take the spot of either Nunez or Arcia. If the Twins assess that Quentin right handed bat is a clear upgrade over Nunez, his presence on the bench might be more valuable. Nunez does not do anything defensively or in the running game that can't be covered by Santana. Polanco is in AAA if a middle infielder were injured. With Polanco the Twins don't need to carry two utility players. They aren't going to pinch hitting or subbing for 2B and 3B very often. Sweeney is more in competition with Santana and Arcia. Sweeney can play CF and bats left handed. Assuming a back up catcher which trio gives the Twins the most options from the bench? Santana, Nunez, Arcia Santana, Nunez, Quentin Santana, Arcia, Quentin Nunez, Sweeney, Arcia Nunez, Sweeney, Quentin The Twins had the worst pinch hitting in baseball last year. Maybe Quentin has enough left to turn that around.
  5. jorgenswest
    Mid market teams should not be in the practice of buying out the arbitration years of average players already in or close to their prime. They can afford the risk that the player will take a step forward and earn their reward in arbitration. It is far better to remain flexible and be able to move on from a player if they drop in performance either due to injury or early decline.
  6. jorgenswest
    Should Nunez be included in the article? I guess he used his last option in 2014 so he wouldn't fit the criteria. I don't think his Twin future should be anymore guaranteed than Arcia, Santana, Tonkin or Milone.
  7. jorgenswest
    ERA+ since 2012 (all pitchers well over 500 innings) Milone 99 Santana 96 Hughes 96 Nolasco 85 The various ERA estimators converge with ERA at 500 innings. ERA is meaningful at this sample.
  8. jorgenswest
    There is no reason to buy Gibson's 32 year old season. The Twins are not a small market team. They don't have to make deals to protect themselves a possible few million in arbitration. If Gibson pitches well, pay him what he has earned in arbitration. If not, be able to move on without being tied to a contract. We have enough low ceiling starting pitchers with multi year contracts.
  9. jorgenswest
    It would be typical of the Twins to extend a decline phase player based on a an outlier year or even half year performance. Suzuki, Doumit and Burton are recent examples. Let's hope they have learned from those contracts.
  10. jorgenswest
    As a minor leaguer he was always several years younger than league average. He didn't perform well with the bat in that context but his glove kept moving him forward. He was in AA by 21 and the majors by 22. It isn't unusual to both struggle with the bat and improve significantly under these conditions. We knew that when he was acquired but there was so much noise the other direction it went mostly unheard. His last two seasons were real. It may have been a ceiling but it is a ceiling that should hold through his team control with the Twins. Players with his skills are valuable to any roster.
  11. jorgenswest
    If you plan to tank don't you stick with Liam Hendricks for a long stretch as they did with Viola rather than sign Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey? Don't you give Pinto a long look rather than sign Suzuki to be a starter?
  12. jorgenswest
    Rosario and his ability to hit enough is the key. They need his defense in LF. If he is in LF and Buxton in CF, the OF defense overall should be better than average even with Sano or Arcia in RF. I would be very concerned about an OF with Rosario in CF and Arcia and Sano on the corners. There would be too many long innings, short starts and calls to the bullpen.
  13. jorgenswest
    The team is better and deeper with Jackson. Masterson and Duensng may help as long as they are willing to cut ties if they don't pitch well. That same statement should be made with Nolasco and Fien in mind. I would pass on Stubbs. Jackson is worth the difference in salary.
  14. jorgenswest
    Evidence that Perkins can't get out lefties will come when opposing teams routinely bring a left handed pinch hitter off the bench to replace a right handed batter.
  15. jorgenswest
    I was drawn in by the statement "Perkins can't get lefties out" That is very definitive and damning statement. If the statement had been "I wouldn't count on him being a weapon versus lefties" it would have been much easier to ignore the use of the sample to support the statement.
  16. jorgenswest
    I don't have evidence either way. How could I from my couch, computer or seat at the game? You absolutely can not use slash stats. They require a very large sample. Strike out rates, ground ball rates, fly ball rates and eventually walk rates can be examined but not in a single year of the lefty v lefty reliever split. A team would have to go to the pitch level data. They then should normalize for quality of batter faced from each side. It could be true that Perkins can't get out lefties. That determination might come from video study, pitch level data beyond our access and the trained eye of a major league staff. I need to try to keep from being drawn in to these conversations. Understanding the impact of sample in a data set isn't trivial and we are bombarded on broadcasts with meaningless data in small samples. Spring training numbers are coming soon. It is going to be difficult to stay out of these types of conversations.
  17. jorgenswest
    Perkins and splits. Do we realize that it takes around 600 plate appearance or more for pitcher slash stats to become reliable? It would take most of Perkin's career to get there. Perkins lefty v lefty split would also be highly skewed by the quality of left handed hitter he would face at the end of the game. Only the better lefties would not be removed for a pinch hitter. Strike rates stabilize early. Walk rates stabilize around 170 plate appearance without a split. It would take Perkins three years to get past that level at lefty v lefty. If we go back three years, his strike out rate v lefties is 24.4% (26.6 overall) and walk rate is 4.6 (3.5 overall). That difference might be explained by the difference in quality of left handed hitter he is facing at the end of the game. It might that last year's numbers were randomly skewed badly to the left handed side. It can happen. In a small sample a mediocre hitter can hit .350 in September. Not meaningful. Just random. If the Twins assess that Perkins can't get out lefties, I sure hope they do it based on their trained eye. The data is not near enough sample to support that statement.
  18. jorgenswest
    It takes a pretty large sample for slash stats to be meaningful and reliable. I don't see how such a definitive statement can be made based on that data. What are his career numbers? Three years of lefty v lefty splits as a reliever might be enough to look at strike out rates and walk rates. Nothing more. The reality is that a left handed closer is only going to see the best left handed hitters at the end of the game. Other will be pulled for a pinch hitter. His sample too small to be reliable is likely to be skewed with a much greater ratio of the better left handed batters. It might be true that Perkins can not get left handed hitters out. One season slash stats of what is certain to be fewer than 100 plate appearances skewed by game situation can not possibly support that statement.
  19. jorgenswest
    Signing Quentin keeps them from looking for a younger option with more upside. I heard the same no risk line when they signed Kubel and Bartlett. That same winter and spring JD Martinez was available as the Astros DFA'd outrighted and released him. The Twins could have been the first team to claim him. Instead they filled spring spots with Kubel and Bartlett. It was particularly frustrating their second opportunity in March when it was clear that Bartlett could not hit. The Tigers acquired Martinez on March 22. How does Quentin fit? It could be as a bat on the bench if he demonstrates he can hit. They haven't had that bat the last few years instead carrying multiple utility players. If he demonstrates that he is a much better threat with the bat than Nunez, he is more valuable to the bench. If he can't hit, let's hope Molitor recognizes it and releases him. The Twins are stuck with the weak bench they had last year.
  20. jorgenswest
    To add ... his numbers as a starter were highly impacted by a BABIP of well over .400. At the time he was moved to reliever his FIP was close to his 2014 FIP when many were excited about his future.
  21. jorgenswest
    The Yankees DFA'd Nunez because he couldn't play 2B and fill a utility role. He may have improved his SS play from the poor level but it isn't possible to use metrics to support an improvement. The sample size for his offensive statistics are not enough to support improvement either. His strike out rates and walk rates with the Twins are in line with his career numbers. His ground all rate is up and his line drive and fly ball rates are down. That may indicate a change in approach leading to a better batting average. If the Twins believe he is a different player based on a partial year of slash numbers and UZR, they have little understanding of the sample necessary for those offensive and defensive numbers to be reliable.
  22. jorgenswest
    I don't think there is doubt in most major league front offices. They show through their roster decisions at catcher and hiring people like Mike Fast. I still wonder about Suzuki. By most measures, he is a poor to below average defensive choice at catcher. Is there some aspect of catching that goes unmeasured in which Suzuki excels? For some reason pitchers on his teams appear very confident in him behind the plate. That confidence can't come from his ability to frame pitches or throw out runners. It has to be something else. Note: the one measure where Suzuki once excelled was blocking pitches and preventing wild pitches. If true, it was baffling to me that Gardenhire would choose to sit him with the very wild Deduno on the mound. If anyone needed help preventing wild pitches, it was Deduno.
  23. jorgenswest
    I would be more interested in comparing pitch level data like swing rates, contact rates or swing and miss rates for example. The sample isn't small for those numbers to be reliable. Free swinging doesn't have to equate to poor contact or strike zone judgement. Puckett and Oliva were considered to be free swinging. I am sure they had extreme swing rates. I am guessing they matched that with high contact rates in and out of the zone. Rosario has an extreme swing rate, but his rate of contact on pitches out of the zone is below league average. That is a worrisome combination.
  24. jorgenswest
    Most hitting, pitching and fielding stats all need more than a single season's sample. The pitch level data and the strike out, walk and maybe ground ball/fly ball rates are useful for projecting based on a single full season. Rosario's poor plate discipline rate's are reason for concern. These are stats that are reliable in a single season. They can improve, but it will take a change in skill. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=150&type=5&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=8&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=4,d
  25. jorgenswest
    Without an injury or move, it seems like the positional players are set. It is possible Park will need adjustment time in AAA. Arcia might have a really rough spring and be DFA'd but both seem unlikely. The limited positional flexibility from Park and Mauer will present a problem over the next three years. They need one or the other to play a passable corner OF. The Twins are going to want to keep Sano in the line up every day and there will be times when he is injured where he can still play DH. The Twins also have Walker in the pipeline who has a well below average arm. Either Mauer or Park may be a better option on a corner. They need to prepare Mauer or Park on a corner OF this spring. It will become necessary at some point during the season and they need to be prepared. I hope they give Tonkin a role. I think he will be a better option than Fien and could be a good 7th inning option. The two are headed in opposite directions in their careers. I agree Graham should be in AAA. He has the pitch mix to be successful as a starter. He should spend the majority of the year starting in AAA. Unless Pressly shows he is not healthy, he is probably a better option than Fien or possible Nolasco. Keeping Nolasco and Fien while designating Tonkin and Pressly could be very short sighted.
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