jorgenswest

They might try to get the Braves to include Graham in a deal with Pierzynski. It would enable the Twins to add an arm in the pen and give Graham some AAA starts.

Reyes is now what we were concerned Tulowitzki would be in two years. His defense is below average. His bat is weaker and void against lefties this year. He might be a slight upgrade this year but will be a huge deficit going forward. He might be worth a win though and that win could be the difference between being the road team in a wild card play in game and sitting on the outside. The Twins would have to plan to move him to LF for the future though. The only deal I would consider is Mauer for Reyes. The Twins could play Reyes at SS this year and replace Mauer in the lineup with Arcia or Kepler or a rental bat.

Is the choice punt 2015 or punt 2017 and beyond? I don't see why those need to be the choices. Is it Tulo or nothing? Someone will be foolish enough to take Tulowitzki's contract. It could be the Twins. In 2017 the Twins can have platoon of Tulo and Mauer at 1B and a trio of number 5 starters to the tune of around 100 million for the 5. Makes sense to me. I'm in.

I was at the game. Your description in no way fits what I saw. Perhaps you were at the game also and saw it different. I don't see how anyone could see range and movement on TV.

You can't use WAR that way. Escobar gets a huge deduction for starting games in LF. He is getting compared to the bat of a replacement level LF. You need to look at the splits and probably need to use last year also to get enough fielding data. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=6&season=2015&month=38&season1=2015&ind=0&team=8&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 Escobar's WAR as a SS is 0.5 (positive) in just 69 PA! Tulowitzki is 1.7 as a SS in 322 PA. The Twins are getting the median production from their shortstop position this year and that production is being pulled down by Danny Santana. They can fix the position by playing Escobar and Nunez (using Nunez when they throw a fly ball pitcher)

There is reason to be excited about the Twins as they move towards 2017. By then key young players will have hundreds of games under their belts. They could really mess that up committing to Tulowitzki. Look at his defensive metrics. You may not buy the metric in terms of how it equates to runs but you can see the steady decline since his rookie year. This year he is below average. By 2017 or possibly earlier he won't be a shortstop. Where are they going to play him and his big contract. He could easily join Joe Mauer making 20 million for ordinary offense from a corner position. They will also still have the burden of Hughes, Santana and Nolasco's contracts and performance from them that might equate to a fifth starter or worse. At the same time they have key young players entering their prime, they will have huge commitments to decline phase players handcuffing the front office and ensuring the team will be mediocre. The Rockies need to find a team foolish enough to take this contract. I hope it isn't the Twins.

The Twins are getting league average SS play when looking at the offensive splits. According to OPS, they were 13 at the all star break and 15 today as many are lumped in the middle.The average SS line has an OPS of .657. The Twins split at SS is .656 that includes Danny Santana's 547. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2015&month=38&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=9,d Clearly Molitor believes Santana is better than that. If at some point he stops believing, he has options on his bench that will provide a better than league average SS bat. While SS gets the focus here due to Santana, the production has been OK compared to the league. The same can not be said about LF, CF, DH and 1B. Their production at those positions is clearly below the median. They have a solution at DH. The CF production will be better without Schafer. LF is better when they aren't playing shortstops out there. Perhaps biggest need #1b is 1B.

I took a stab a month ago http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-6647-looking-at-the-40-man-roster/

Oakland will do better. Zobrist will get a qualifying offer and result in a comp pick and the associated draft dollars. Oakland would need to see the deal as losing Zobrist, Clippard and a comp pick to get a young SS that may not be able to stay at the position and weaker minor league credentials than the guy they have and two relievers. I don't think Beane sees much value in relievers. I think he will get starting pitching prospects as a result of moving those two. While the trade is fair on paper, the trade deadline is a sellers market. It isn't enough to the seller to simply win-win. Edit: Tonkin probably adds no value to the A's. He will be out of options and the A's have no opportunity to develop him. If the Twins don't value him this year, why would another team see value? They just need to wait until he is DFA'd next spring.

Adding Arcia will guarantee that a corner player is on the bench and available to pinch hit every game. I think that brings more value than Robinson.

I hope the Twins haven't placed their bets yet. He is way too young. They need to find 150 plate at bats for him in the second half.

How do the Twins perform on the corners compared to other team in the AL Central? Previous: Up the Middle First Base (ranked by wRC+) Tigers (1st) 176 Sox (2nd) 129 Royals (8th) 118 Indians(10th) 110 Twins (11th) 98 Cabrera is a monster. Abreau is very good. Santana will be better. I think Mauer can close the gap and approach Hosmer’s production in the second half. It is hard to imagine the Twins climbing out of fifth at 1B though. They really need Mauer to be a league average 1B. can he approach a 115-120 wRC+ in the second half? He hasn’t been there since 2013. On the farm: Vargas is back in AA trying to cut down his chase rate. If Mauer is injured it would likely be Sano or Plouffe that fill in at this point. Thirdbase Royals (3rd) 119 Twins (4th) 115 Tigers (13th) 76 Indians(14th) 75 Sox(15th) 75 Defensively: Royals(5th), Twins(7), Indians(9), Tigers(10), White Sox (13) Plouffe has turned out to be a very solid player. He and Dozier are fruits of a bad team that gave them plenty of at bats before they started making consistent contributions to the team. Moustakas is better and needed an even longer stretch before contributing. On the farm: Sano was just called up. The Twins need both Sano and Plouffe in the line up. Jose Martinez play 3B for Rochester. Left Field Royals (2nd) 127 Indians (3rd) 124 Tigers (4th) 117 Twins (10th) 85 Sox(14th) 73 Defensively: Royals(1), Tigers(6), Twins(9), White Sox(10), Indians (11) Rosario just surpassed Escobar in plate appearances by a Twin left fielder. Rosario’s performance would put the Twins a couple of slots up and near league average. He also boosts them defensively over the utility infielders and Arcia. The Twins can expect an improvement from this position in the second half of the season. There is still a significant gap to the production of Gordon, Brantley and Cespedes though. On the farm: Kepler is in AA and may get a shot. Walker continues to produce but isn’t on the 40. Arcia is heating up in AAA. Right Field Tigers(1) 153 Indians(9) 107 Twins(10) 103 Sox(12) 94 Royals(15) 50 Defensively: Royals(2), Tigers(5), Twins(9), Indians(10), White Sox(15) J.D. Martinez was a waiver claim at the same time the Twins were counting on Bartlett and Kubel. Hunter has performed just below league average in the field and at the plate. Can he keep going? It is hard to imagine that he will improve in the second half. Royals should close the gap with a healthy Rios. On the farm: Arcia could make a difference. He might help the Twins improve their overall production in RF if used well. A rested Hunter may perform better. I am not suggesting an all out platoon, but I do think Molitor can find a spot twice a week where Arcia can help. Harrison is doing well in AA. Designated Hitter Royals(5th) 122 Indians(8th) 113 Sox(10th) 97 Twins(13th) 89 Tigers(15th) 77 A healthy Martinez may flip the Tigers from last to first in DH production. Sano can make a huge impact for the Twins. Morales may regress. This is one area where AL Central teams can close the gap. Twins Outlook The Twins need to maintain their production from at 3B and RF. They really can’t expect better unless strategic use of Arcia inches them up the RF ranks. They can expect regular use of Rosario and Sano to improve production in LF and DH. They need Mauer to close the gap at 1B also. A 120 wRC+ is reasonable and his production could be the key to the Twins chances in the second half. Sano’s production in July can save the Twins from trading a prospect for a temporary solution at DH.

How does the Twins performance up the middle compare to the other teams of the AL Central? With the help of fangraphs, here is how the AL Central teams performed up the middle. Catcher (Ranked by wRC+) Tigers (4th) 100 Royals (7th) 87 Indians (8th) 86 White Sox (9th) 80 Twins (13th) 56 For fear of long discussion about WAR, I will leave it out. For the other positions, I will put some defensive rankings. We could start a thread and argue about catcher defense and framing also. I will state without numbers that the Royals and Indians get more help defensive from their catchers than the Tigers and Twins. The White Sox are probably below them The Indians lost Yan Gomes for much of the first half. His return should improve their performance at catcher. Avila’s return should improve the Tigers. It is hard to imagine that Suzuki will improve given his workload. On the farm: Josmil Pinto is suffering from concussions. Eric Fryer had a good half season with the bat that is out of line with several years of previous performance. Stuart Turner is a good defender and might project towards a Drew Butera type career. That isn't a knock. Truly good defensive catchers that can handle a pitching staff are not easy to find and not in abundance in AAA. Secondbase Indians (1st) 156 Twins (2nd) 132 Tigers (7th) 93 Royals (14th) 49 White Sox(15th) 27 Defensively the Royals are first followed by Tigers(3), Indians(7), White Sox(10) and Twins(11). I think that Dozier is a good defensive 2B. The other guys are also. I don’t think the difference between Dozier and Infante is very significant. This looks to be a position that the Royals will get an upgrade in the second half. It is very unlikely that their second basement will have an OBP of 240 even if they remain the same. The Indians and Twins have elite players that should continue to play well. On the farm: Beresford, Bernier and Polanco are all in AAA. None is Dozier of course, but all could do a respectable job as a utility player short term. Polanco has upside of a starter Shortstop Tigers (2nd) 113 Twins (6th) 84 Royals (9th) 82 Indians(14th) 45 Sox(15th) 38 Defensively, Tigers (1st), Royals (7), White Sox(11), Twins (12) and Indians (13) I think both the Twins and Indians improve. Lindor is an upgrade. The Twins have a lot of innings of very shaky performance from Santana. Escobar and Nunez show better than league average SS bats and are getting a better percentage of the playing time. If Santana plays it is because he has improved. Unbelievable all star level play from Iglesias thus far, but I think he will regress some. Ramirez will be better for the White Sox. Centerfield Royals (2nd) 130 Tigers (8th) 104 Sox (11th) 88 Indians(12th) 81 Twins(15th) 60 Defensively, the Royals (1st) are kings followed by Twins (8th), Tigers (11th), Indians(14th) and White Sox(15th). The Twins numbers are dragged down by Schafer. Hicks and Buxton should improve. Rosario looked respectable as a fall back option. Cain is elite and the Twins can't close this gap entirely in 2015. They can gain ground towards league average contribution. On the farm: Hicks, Buxton and Rosario were all in the minors to start the season. Farris and Ortiz now play CF in AAA. Niko Goodrum started in CF the first two weeks after Buxton was called up but it has been Kepler in the last week. Twins Outlook Without a trade, I expect better performance centerfield in the second half. I think the performance at shortstop will also improve and it is already league average. The Twins can’t afford an injury to Dozier and his elite level play. He should continue to perform well. Catcher is the black hole. Suzuki’s performance dropped last year with the heavy workload. It has nowhere to drop this year in the second half. Up the middle, it is the one position where a trade can have a significant impact. Next: On the Corners

Arcia should be viewed as their best solution for RF next year. Kepler and Walker haven't played this level. Sano barely has played and never in the OF. They need to let go of Torii before his numbers collapse. I would trade him for someone who is their best solution at catcher next year, but most teams don't want to trade up the middle guys for corner guys.

We need a good start from Pelfrey tonight.

Compared to 6 man, May loses one start. Trading a May start against Orioles for Gibson start against Tigers. Milone start moves from Tigers to Orioles. May available in pen soon. Maybe today if it was throwing day. Milone or Pelfrey wouldn't have available until into next week.

Gibson can start two more times. Tuesday and Sunday. A 6 man rotation would eliminate that possibility. Which of these gives the Twins the least chance to win next week? Gibson v Tigers Milone v Tigers May v Orioles (skipping May and means Milone starts against the Orioles instead of the Tigers) Pelfrey v Tigers Isn't that how the Twins should make up their rotation? Debating the merits of the 6 man rotation is a nice exercise but the Twins are playing real games and need to decide based on their best chances to win those games. Molitor needs to assess which of those gives him the best shot at winning games.

I agree with you in theory. I think every team would go this route. It wouldn't work. The Twins have a larger bonus pool this year than they will see in the future. They used it to get one guy that likely would have signed by those going over pool. If they try to sign a bunch of guys just above $500,000 they could be left with the players they targeted going to other teams with the same plan. Now they have to turn to lesser players and still offer them an amount above the level that the restricted teams can pay.

If the 6 man rotation is only until the all star break it means everyone will get 2 starts with the exception of May getting one start. Assuming Santana starts two games, the Twins have the following option for those losing a start. 1-May and Gibson each 1 (6 man rotation) 2-May 2 (May to pen) 3-Milone/Pelfrey 1 and Gibson/May 1 (Milone or Pelfrey to pen, Gibson or May loss depends which starts Tuesday) Which is the best option to take them to the break? I am waiting to see what Pelfrey brings Saturday. Another way to look at it is to consider the opponent. Santana and Hughes are lined up to start against the Tigers. Which 2 of the other 4 give the Twins the best chance to beat the Tigers? The Twins don't need to be debating the merits of a 6 man rotation. They have to figure out how to best win the majority of the next 11 games.

This one signing exceeds their pool. They can go 5% over with the only penalty being dollars. More than 5% and it impacts their ability to sign players next year. That would be foolish because if you are going to go over, go way over. Sign multiple guys in the top 30. That isn't going to happen. They are throwing their international eggs in one basket this year. They can trade for more pool money, but most of these guys will never make it. It would be unwise to trade Arcia or similar for pool money. Almost any younger player they have in AA or AAA is much more likely to be useful at the major league level than a 16 year old signing

My apologies for the vitriol. I am still not convinced OPS is a better measure than strike out rates, walk rates and with a large enough sample home run rates.

It would be nice if 5 minutes of prep work were put into one of the main topics. Milone to the bullpen. Did you know that Milone has been more effective against right handed batters than left handed batters over his career? His strike out rate against right handed batters is better. His walk rate against right handed batters is better. He has been better against lefties this year in as a sample of only 70 plate appearance. that is a small sample in comparison to career where he has reverse splits in the minors and majors. Listening to your show, we would have to believe that he has consistently year in year out been better against lefties and it isn't true. Did you know he is better in innings 4-6 than innings 1-3. A lot better this year. Does that sound like a reliever to you? A few minutes of prep would be nice.

Lucroy probably not available http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/whos-available-and-whos-not-from-the-brewers-b99526821z1-310376871.html

This was not Suzuki's reputation coming to Minnesota unless his tactics were to call a very high rate of fastballs. Working with Allen will be a plus.

Why doesn't that return need to be better than what they are getting from their current 5? I want him to earn it. If he doesn't, start him in the pen. There will be an opportunity for the rotation as the season progresses. Let him earn it then.