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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Do they still have time to remove someone? I know they can’t remove anyone they just added to protect them from rule 5. Couldn’t they trade or DFA someone else prior to the draft?
  2. jorgenswest
    I wonder if MJ Melendez will be non tendered. He was baseball’s worst framer in his rookie season as a catcher but he was respectable throwing out runners and did it well in the minors. Blocking pitches was an issue also. If he was so focused on the framing aspect the blocking and throwing might take a hit also. The Twins need a catcher. Campusano and Melendez were once top catching prospects. Maybe a change of scenery and opportunity will help realize those talents. McGuire was mentioned also. His glove is very solid.
  3. jorgenswest
    Lopez and Ryan are going to help with the development of the rest of the staff. Their innings are going to matter. They are going to keep the burden off of the pen. Their leadership in the pitching room talking about how to pitch to hitters in an upcoming series is going to be valuable. Catchers are valuable to that room also and they are already losing Vazquez. Trading either will impact the development of our starters and put a burden on a bullpen.
  4. jorgenswest
    MLBTR created a list of non-tenders candidates including Larnach and Topa. Is there a deal to be made with Larnach for one of these players that might not have a fit on their current team? Can the Twins move him for a catcher or someone for the bullpen?
  5. jorgenswest
    Some guys respond positively to different leadership. Maybe we will see more of the 2023 version of Julien as well as Lewis. Maybe we will see better from Wallner. We didn’t get their best last year. Last year’s leadership also included Correa who just seemed to bring the team down with him when he struggled. Julien was a different player in September with his .788 OPS. The team looked like it was having more fun playing the game in September. I certainly want to have an open mind to start the season about any of these players who have shown ability.
  6. jorgenswest
    I don’t think they overvalue. Prior to right sizing the budget they sent prospects for Mahle and Lopez. At some point in 2023 the budget was right sized. The decisions they made since those 2022 trades didn’t overvalue prospects either. You are not overvaluing prospects when you are adding decline phase veterans on team friendly one year deals. I think all teams overhype prospects. It is in their interest to do so. Publications putting out rankings instead of tiers add to the hype. I think value is shown in playing time and until August 1 of last year the Twins were not giving very much time to prearb players. @Riverbrian showed us that deficit with every series. Teams valuing prospects are going to play them. I look forward to seeing that next year.
  7. jorgenswest
    I don’t think Julien is the back up to Clemens. He may start at first base. He may be the starter at second if Keaschall is injured. If he can win the first base job I can see Clemens on the bench with his ability to play 5 positions pretty well. I think he will either win a starting job in spring training or be moved for little or no return. There is at least some reason for optimism. In the last quarter of the season when he was getting consistent playing time he hit 275/367/377. His exit velocity for the full season was back in his 2023 range as were his barrels and hard hit rates. In the spring he needs to show the bat he had in the last quarter of the season and he should have a job on this team. note: His consistent playing time probably started game 126 and his triple slash from that game was 278/380/344.
  8. jorgenswest
    Yes and 1 according to roster resource. My guess is the Rays needed the 40 man spot and would have DFA’d him if they did not find a trade partner.
  9. jorgenswest
    Last year we added Travis Adams and we added a rule 5. We eventually let go of Ronny Henriquez when we needed a roster spots and neither Adams or the rule 5 could be safely removed. It doesn’t seem likely that Adams would have survived the year on another roster. We made a decision on Henriquez after 31 innings. If I look back I was probably OK with letting him go given the options at the time but I was not in favor of the rule 5 decision or the Adams decision. Those 40 man spots are valuable.
  10. jorgenswest
    Trevor Larnach for Luis Campusano? It is possible neither will be then tendered and become free agents. The Padres have two right handed starting corner outfielders and Larnach would fit there better than here. The Padres did not give Campusano any time at catcher in his intermittent major league call ups last year. He played catcher and crushed the ball in AAA. The Twins need help at catcher.
  11. jorgenswest
    I prefer Outman to a free agent because the Twins will be willing to let his clock run out when Jenkins or Rodriguez are ready to start their major league clocks. If they sign a free agent to a team friendly one year deal that player will be with theM at least until the deadline. I think June 1 is about right. The only thing that will keep him beyond that is his performance or an injured Jenkins and Rodriguez. It could be earlier if one of those two takes charge in the spring.
  12. jorgenswest
    Did you read the rest of what I wrote? I specifically compared the performance of Wells to Culpepper. Their ability to miss bats and strike out batters in AA is very different. It really seems odd that you left that out. Tyler Wells wasn’t a stash. He was ready to pitch in a major league bullpen and was successful as a rookie and had an ERA below league average. If the Twins believe that Culpepper is ready and capable of that performance in spite of his inability to miss bats in AA they should put him on the 40.
  13. jorgenswest
    They have more influence than I do. I appreciate their care and fight for this team.
  14. jorgenswest
    I look at Clemens statcast numbers and I see hope from his exit velocity and launch angle. I also have hope that given his salary they will not be waiting until August to go another direction if this year’s wOBA doesn’t approach last year’s xWOBA. If it does then they have a major league player at 1B. if it doesn’t then they options they have other options which could include Roden, Julien, Mendez, Sabato and even Keaschall. If they don’t spend resources on a free agent 1B when Culpepper shows he is ready he can take the spot of anyone in the infield who is not performing. He will be the shortstop and Keaschall can move to 1B and Lee can move to 2B or 3B. My first choice would have been acquire someone at Naylor’s level or above. Short of that I would have gone with the status quo over another one year stop gap at 1B.
  15. jorgenswest
    I do appreciate you Mike. You nailed it. I will think they can compete until they don’t. Adding Rutschman would help. Fighting every day to compete is a big part of who I am. I just don’t get how it isn’t part of the Pohlad’s nature. Maybe I can sell it this way. Rutschman could easily be a buy low. If he hits like he did his first two years his trade value will go up. If he isn’t a buy low then I am with you and the Twins should not trade assets.
  16. jorgenswest
    I dint think he is declining in skill. His contact numbers are all in line with his rookie season, he had the best exit average exit velocity last year. He also had a low BABIP relative to his career.
  17. jorgenswest
    They absolutely should try to get Rutschman. That would show commitment from ownership. Commitment means keeping Ryan also. They do have the prospect deal to make a competitive offer for Rutschman. I know the Orioles are looking for starting pitching but they are going to need to trade prospects to get it. Trading Rutschman for prospects will enhance their prospect pool.
  18. jorgenswest
    I think xwOBA is helpful in putting a players slash stats into context. It is much more stable than slash stats and more predictive of future slash stats. The components of xwOBA are exit velocity, launch angle and sprint speed. I appreciate xwOBA because it is elements under a player control including accounting for speed. In 2024 Carlos Correa and Matt Wallner had wOBAs that were 30 and 27 points greater than their xwOBA. Regression might be expected. It can go the other way also. In 2022 Polanco’s xwOBA was 25 points above his wOBA. In 2023 when the wOBA and xwOBA were more in balance is OPS was 30 points higher. Twins last year that with wOBAs above their xwOBA indicating if the skill is the same they are candidates for the regression. There is only one current Twin with significant plate appearances in this group. Keaschall was a +34 (363 vs 329). His slash stats were much better than his exit velocity, launch angle and speed suggested they should be. Pereda’s sample was small but the difference was very extreme. His exit velocity, launch angle and speed suggest that he isn’t a very good hitter. His wOBA was 91 points better than his xwOBA. I would absolutely trust that is true ability is much closer to his xwOBA than his wOBA. There are Twins on the other end of the spectrum that underperformed their contact and speed. If their skill stays the same they are more likely to regress up toward their mean. Eduardo Julien’s xwOBA was 51 points better than his wOBA (337 v 286). In 2023 Julien had nearly the same xwOBA as 2025. His exit velocity, launch angle, barrels, hard hit rate were all pretty close. We probably should expect his 2026 OPS to be close to the middle of those two seasons. Only Buxton and Martin had better xwOBAs than Clemens last year. Clemens’ xwOBA was .342 with the Twins and his wOBA was .302. Most batters with that 40 point gap will have an improved OPS the next year. A .342 wOBA isn’t going to stand out for a 1B and is just below the median of starters. The league wOBA from first basemen was .327. Clemens also played 2B. The league wOBA from second basemen was .299. Last year was Clemens’ first with significant playing time. Did the league figure him out? Maybe. I don’t know if his exit velocity and launch angle changed as the pitchers adjusted but I do see his hard hit rate dropped 6% in the second half. That adjustment concern would be true for any player getting their first significant playing time including Keaschall. One other thing stood out in my look. Austin Martin’s xwOBA was 14 points better than his wOBA (347 vs 333) giving me reason to hope that what we saw last year was real.
  19. jorgenswest
    Burnes had one year of control remaining when traded. Sale was beyond his arbitration years and on an extension he had signed with the White Sox. I think you are right about Crichet.I look to the Guardians and Brewers as organizations we should follow. I think they would be holding onto Ryan at this point. I think their trade window would open at the deadline if they were not competitive and be wide open next winter. This year I wonder if the Tigers will trade Skubal with two years of control left.
  20. jorgenswest
    I just don’t see teams other than the Marlins trading good starting pitchers with two or more years of service time. Why is that?
  21. jorgenswest
    It isn’t clear to me that this trade should be done with two full years of service time. I don’t see the comps in the history and I don’t see the evidence that the return will be significantly more if traded now as opposed to next winter or this year’s deadline if they are sellers. I see the history of teams similar to the Twins trading their starters with 1 or even 1+ years of service time. I see the value. We did it with Berrios.
  22. jorgenswest
    The Berrios trade looks like an absolute win. They traded his 1+ seasons of control for Woods Richardson and Martin. The key was the next winter when they took that Berrios salary slot and replaced it by acquiring Sonny Gray and sending Chase Petty to the Reds. They retained Gray for two years before using the comp pick to draft Kyle DeBarge. Assets acquired Sonny Gray (22 and 23) Woods Richardson (6 years) Martin [6 years) DeBarge (6 years) Assets lost Berrios (2 months of 21 and 22) Petty (6 years) Potential comp pick for Berrios They traded Berrios in a lost season and replaced his contract slot with Gray who was a big part of winning a playoff series for the first time in years. In reality they had two shots of playoff control with Gray where they were only going to have one more with Berrios. That is a big win. It is yet to be seen if Woods Richardson and Martin will end up being more valuable than Petty and really no way the comp pick that never happened for Berrios in comparison to DeBarge. They can do the same with Ryan. Let the season play out. If they are not competitive at the deadline they can move him as they did Berrios. The key will be filling his contract slot by acquiring a player next off season at near that projected salary. It is unlikely that they will win any Ryan deal if the primary motivation is to reduce the payroll.
  23. jorgenswest
    I appreciate this discussion. Some good ideas and hope. I think they need to take the best 12 arms and at this point it looks like many of those 12 were starters last year. Will the pitchers buy in? I think so. Wouldn’t every pitcher listed here prefer a spot on the major league roster in the bullpen as opposed to starting in AAA? Does a move to relief block them from starting in the future? Not at all. In a different discussion I looked at the starters chosen for the last two all star games. Many spent seasons as relievers and some moved roles in season. The Brewers don’t spend resources on their bullpen and trade off relievers when they get expensive. The Mariners have traded a string of 5 closers including Edwin Diaz. Diaz who was traded after two seasons as closer. Sewald didn’t quite make it to two seasons. He was traded at the deadline in a year the Mariners were buyers. These teams have built a bullpen without spending in free agency or trading prospects to acquire those relievers.
  24. jorgenswest
    I wonder if they need to protect Culpepper. He isn’t ready and I don’t think he can be easily stashed in a bullpen. He didn’t get swing and miss in AA and all that contact is going to make it difficult for him to eat innings or come in with runners on base. He has the pitch mix of a starter but really needs more time. I don’t think he can stick with a team through the season. At first I thought maybe he is similar to Tyler Wells but Wells struck out 30.7% in AA while Culpepper struck out 19.5% last year. I wonder if a pitcher has been taken and kept in rule 5 with a similarly low strike out rate relative to the his league. He was 70th of 93 Texas League pitchers in strike out rate among pitchers with more than 50 innings.
  25. jorgenswest
    There just aren’t comps to say that is true. The market has changed since 10 years ago. You might get an extra FV45 or FV 50 but teams haven’t been trading those elite prospects. No one has more FV45 or better players than the Twins. They are more similar in value to players around 200 than players around 10. They need someone that will have a greater chance of making an impact. I am looking at the top 20. A Walker Jenkins before he dropped in status after several injuries. If they don’t get that impact player they may as well wait. There are a whole bunch of FV50s and 45s and then it comes down to identifying the one that is going to performs beyond that level. They identified Joe Ryan and acquired him for a rental DH. They didn’t need to trade two years of a good starting pitcher. If they get that truly get that impact player I am in. If they get someone in the middle quartiles of the 100 with someone in the bottom half they should have waited. That might look like a Franklin Arias and Brandon Clarke. If that is the offer I hold onto Ryan. Arias and Clarke both have an ETA of 2028. So much can happen as they move up in the minors. Arias has elite contact skills but needs to develop power. We have seen that elite contact doesn’t always play well in the majors when major league pitchers turn that into consistent weak contact. Clarke doesn’t have a change up yet. They deserve their high prospect rankings of 25 and 86 but neither should be seen as likely to make an impact. They are too far away and have significant work to do.
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