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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    It is reasonable to be concerned about the power and ISO. Does he profile like Brian Anderson of the Marlins? His ISOs did not stand out in the minors until AAA. He Is not a pull hitter. Anderson has more positional value that gave him the opportunity to have his break out season last year at 26. Larnach needs more time in the minors. It might be year 3 in the majors before we see that break out but I think he will be a good major league hitter. Can a contending team afford the patience he might need at the major league level? Does his value diminish if he comes to the majors and struggles? I think he is a relative sell high this year and hope a good healthy start in AA makes him a very desired player at the deadline.
  2. jorgenswest
    I think Thorpe needs major league inning to take the next step. The Twins need to develop starting pitching. I would start him in the rotation and keep Chacin in AAA until they need to make an opt out date decision. Give Thorpe those 7-8 starts before Pineda returns and give him a chance win the spot and move Bailey to the bullpen. Even if he struggles he will know what he needs to work on in AAA if he heads there when Pineda returns.
  3. jorgenswest
    There is an important difference driving the data. Odorizzi uses more pitches per plate appearance and ends up averaging 21.9 batters faced per game. Berrios uses fewer pitches and averages 26.3 batters per game. The end result is that the Berrios third time through data has much more of the bottom of the line up than the Odorizzi data. Berrios faces more batters per game and that is a benefit. It is a benefit with a hidden cost. Berrios is crushed when batters hit him with 0-0 and 1-0 counts. Odorizzi does not give in early in counts and has many fewer plate appearances of 1 or 2 pitches. The result is facing fewer batters per outing and a set of batters the third time through that is heavily skewed by the top three batters in the line up and an absence of the bottom third.
  4. jorgenswest
    Vince Coleman was a poor fielder in LF with a weak arm and bad routes. Vince Coleman his 28 career home runs. He was a one tool player. I don’t see any comparison.
  5. jorgenswest
    I hope Rocco doesn’t believe that about the third time through because it is a myth. The data is heavily skewed because pitchers get to their pitch limit somewhere in the middle of their third time through. The set of batters faced the third time through is mostly the top of the order. It can be seen if you look at batters the third time they face a pitcher. Looking at the 50 batters who faced a pitcher a third time at least 100 times last year they had their most success in their second at bat and not their third at bat. Odorizzi doesn’t give in or give a fat pitch early in the count like Berrios does. Batters see more pitches against him and he is pushing the pitch count earlier and his data is even more skewed.
  6. jorgenswest
    The Twins need to win games and use him in opportunities where he will help. There isn’t a need to get to the stabilization point so fans can see the value in slash stats. They need to see the value and make decisions about it much sooner. It would be foolish to give him playing for the purpose of making the data we see more stable. Mid and small market teams are going to be successful if they can determine a player’s value sooner and better than others. I am hoping we have a staff that is going to win on that more often than not. By their use I don’t think they see Cave as any more than a 4th or 5th OF with the ability to option.
  7. jorgenswest
    I am not so sure. Astudillo faced a much more difficult set of pitchers the last two years. His DRC+ was 95 compared to Cave’s 89. The previous year it was 125 to 92. Why DRC+ from BP? It correlates better to future performance. Astudillo doesn’t need to be a better hitter than Cave to be more valuable on the roster with his positional flexibility. I also think there are match ups against a high swing and miss reliever where pinch hitting Astudillo with runners on base is an asset. In reality there will be injuries and both will have plenty of opportunity in the 25 man.
  8. jorgenswest
    There is nothing better than a baseball game. I am in the bleachers watching a high school scrimmage right now. If it is more meaningful games at the end of the season I am in. There is still plenty to play for in the regular season because winning the division means you play all three in your park.
  9. jorgenswest
    I hate to lose Luis Gil but two years later he is still a long way from the majors with a walk rate of 12% last year and only 13 innings of hi A going into his age 22 season. The options clock has started. The Yankees may harness the upside in that arm before options run out but I would bet on Cave ending his career with more career WAR than Gil. I have to believe Cave’s two years of solid play has to give him more value today and it would be possible to trade him for a pitcher similar to the one Gil was two years ago. A 19 year old with 46 walks in 65 innings and a history of arm trouble and a 100+ fastball.
  10. jorgenswest
    Marwin Gonzalez is essentially a corner OF as long as Sano and Donaldson are healthy. He is no longer a middle infield option short of emergency use. He also switch hits giving the ideal four OF grouping. That makes Cave is the 5th outfielder. If he does step forward the Twins and Marwin declines the Twins will have a decision to make about cutting loose that contract.
  11. jorgenswest
    One hidden and cautionary note about Jake Cave and his data from last year. His set of pitchers faced were among the weakest in baseball last year. As a group the pitchers he faced (weighted by PA) gave up an OPS of against .810. Cave’s OPS of .805 was below the average hitter facing those pitchers. In comparison Rosario’s group of pitchers gave up an aggregate .774 OPS against to the opposing hitters and Rosario was significantly better than average at .800. I would have been selling high on Cave this winter.
  12. jorgenswest
    Bert probably didn’t like the shift from a 4 man rotation to 5 man rotation that happened from about 1974 to 1985. This would have suited Ted Lyons well. Later in his career he only started once a week on Sundays. At age 42 he led the league in ERA starting 20 games and completing them all. It was essentially his last season as he joined the military in 1943. In 1940 at 40 he led the league in shut outs despite starting many fewer games. I do think we are seeing signs that the 5 man rotation is on the way out. We might land on a 6 man rotation with two stacked and pitching every three days. As a general guideline if a pitcher is over 60 pitches you don’t let them start the next inning. There would be many 4 inning start but league average or better pitchers would get to 5 more frequently throwing 70-75 pitches. I think more good pitchers will be throwing over 200 innings with the possibility of a less stressful load. One rule change that would help us to get rid of the 5 inning requirement to secure a win. The rule should at least allow a score keeper the discretion of giving a starter who went 4 good innings the win.
  13. jorgenswest
    Maeda is a good trade for the Twins. That said I think the Twins and Dodgers use a different bar for measuring impact pitching.
  14. jorgenswest
    Over four years I think Donaldson is a much better signing. Given the Twins need for starting pitching particularly in the playoffs I don’t think there was a higher ranked pitcher that was truly available. Wheeler was going to the Phillies if they Gabe him a good offer. Bumgarner the DBacks. Cole the Yankees and Strasburg was staying. They all got good enough offers from the team they targeted. It is possible that it is both a bad signing of four years at his age and health and also the only real hope of signing a free agent that would start game 1 of a playoff series. They didn’t acquire that top starter for 2020 and Ryu was the best starter truly available. They can’t get an A for the off-season without that top starter.
  15. jorgenswest
    The Twins payroll ranks will be above their revenue rank. I don’t expect more. They get high marks for raising payroll. They chose to spend a large portion of that money on Donaldson. Instead they could have signed Ryu and found an inexpensive 1B on a one year deal using the money they spent on Bailey. I think that a start from Ryu helps more in the playoffs than Donaldson so overall I would give them a B.
  16. jorgenswest
    The Padres selected Grant Little with that pick the Twins sold in the Hughes deal. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/grant-little/sa3008031/stats?position=OF
  17. jorgenswest
    Raley needs to be on the 40 and they may have needed to DFA him at some point this year. I hate to lose that pick. 67th pick trivia Kurt Suzuki has the 6th most career WAR (B-R) and 20.3 and could pass Jordan Zimmerman for 5th overall. The Twins drafted the 7th and 9th ranked players on the list in Roger Erickson (8.3 WAR) and Paul Abbott (4.6 WAR). They also drafted Dan Cey in this spot. Rick Reuschel, Ron Guidry and Wally Joyner are the best of this group and Paul Abbott is the last of the group with any kind of career. Since the first draft in 1965 there have been three with 30+ WAR, three others in the 20s and another three between 1 and 10 career WAR. Chances are the 67th pick never has an impact even as much as Paul Abbott in the majors but I still hate to lose the pick.
  18. jorgenswest
    I am concerned about what needs to be added here. I am expecting that they will give up add a 40 or maybe even 45 prospect and get in return an organizational minor leaguer to make it look like both sides added.
  19. jorgenswest
    I think the difference might be the deadline. I think the paperwork needs to be completed and to the league by the deadline. This deal wasn’t never completed. It wasn’t announced by the teams. The Red Sox didn’t like the medical and didn’t complete the deal. Clearly it would be best if teams and agents could keep all of this quiet until the trade is officially announced and completed.
  20. jorgenswest
    Graterol is definitely a health risk with a high upside. If there wasn’t a health risk it would take much more than Maeda to get him. At this point the Twins need to bet on the upside. They have the prospect capital to acquire starting pitching and have now shown their willingness to part with that capital.
  21. jorgenswest
    They made the right move a few days late.
  22. jorgenswest
    His performance last year was similar to 2018 in the context of the pitchers he faced. Batters against the pitchers he faced put up and OPS of .800 resulting in a DRC+ of 123. Even Nick Gordon had a DRC+ of 107 last year. Rooker had a 117 in 2018. BABIP last year was .417. The OPS last year looks great and encouraging. Taken in the context of the group of pitchers he faced and his BABIP leaves me wondering if there is much hope here. What would his DRC+ need to be at the major league level with his defensive limitations? I think he would need to be in the same 117-123 neighborhood or he will have a career somewhere in the range of Austin to Cron.
  23. jorgenswest
    The Twins need to look elsewhere for starting pitching. Maeda is not worth adding to this deal. Keep Graterol. Bet on his upside. Look to move Larnach or Kirilloff for pitching.
  24. jorgenswest
    The Twins were very public about moving Graterol to the bullpen. The Red Sox had to know what they were getting from both the Twins actions and the medical reports. I think we learned that Graterol's value is probably below that of Duran, Balazovic and even Thorpe. Relievers with a medical history and a high effort delivery are risky acquisitions but teams like Boston should be able to afford to take bets on that 103 MPH upside. If Graterol remains let's hope this doesn't change his relationship with the organization.
  25. jorgenswest
    The Twins were in the other end of a similar deal trading a good but not elite CF in Denard Span for a top pitching prospect. Span also had a friendly contract and control. There was concern about Meyer’s delivery and mechanics just as there are concerns about Graterol’s high effort delivery and shoulder. The team receiving the solid major leaguer is going to win these deals more often but when that prospect beats the odds and is a number 1 starter you lose big. The Twins needed a good starter. They traded Graterol at a relative high. How much is he worth at the trade deadline if he is shut down for his shoulder again? It could happen. I don’t know what other opportunities were presented to the Twins but this opportunity was short term. The Dodgers and Red Sox were going to get this deal done and there is no guarantee a better deal would present itself with just a week before spring training. I don’t think the Twins can take the next step if they are reluctant to trade prospects.
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