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KirbyDome89

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Everything posted by KirbyDome89

  1. KirbyDome89
    Do they need to implode and be amongst the worst pitchers in the league, a la Happ and Shoemaker, for the Twins to move them though? I think Winder gives MN a better shot than Bundy to every fifth day, despite Dylan's last two outings. Almost of equal importance, it gives the Twins an actual look at a starting prospect this year. Obviously they still have half a season, and injuries/ineffectiveness blah blah blah are all in play too.
  2. KirbyDome89
    This. For a multitude of reasons.
  3. KirbyDome89
    DRS and UZR have Urshela right at average with OAA a tick below. I'll cede that it's possible he's undervalued a little but this season isn't a a stark departure from his career numbers. Correa is another story. I think he's better than the numbers he has posted this year, but these same metrics loved him while he ascended towards the top of the SS mountain.
  4. KirbyDome89
    I think he's average. If DRS, UZR, and OAA told varying stories to one degree or another I'd be more inclined to rethink my stance.
  5. KirbyDome89
    They're certainly not gospel, but I find DRS or OAA helpful at least as far as dispelling the "Gio Urshela is a defensive stud," narrative that won't seem to die.
  6. KirbyDome89
    Better defenders make the "WOW," plays look routine. It's that simple.
  7. KirbyDome89
    -5 OAA and a DRS of 0 but we're giving him a Gold Glove...
  8. KirbyDome89
    Counting tonight he's played in 6 of 7 games since Kirilloff's return, but I guess I'm seeing things... Are they currently investing in Miranda or not? That was what I asked. Don't shift the goalposts to hypothetical future usage. The Twins don't need to lock in an inferior defender at 3B to get Miranda ABs.
  9. KirbyDome89
    You're not wrong about Urshela's value/contributions to the team moving forward, but Miranda hasn't exactly lit it up at 3B this year. Gio is probably at best an average defensive third basemen; Miranda is worse. I don't understand why the Twins need to downgrade defensively at 3B when they can keep Miranda's bat in the lineup without having to do so.
  10. KirbyDome89
    Martin? No clue. Based on the 5 mins I spent checking out his BR game logs, that SWR guy has though.
  11. KirbyDome89
    He has played 17 out of a possible 20 games so far this month but the Twins aren't investing in their future unless he's at 3B every single game? The Twins have a safety net, albeit a meh one, in place if Miranda regresses, and they have a real shot at the postseason, but let's put that in jeopardy for essentially no reason? The beautiful part about the stars aligning is that it's always next year...
  12. KirbyDome89
    To be clear, I'm not throwing in the towel on either of these guys. The slugging is, and looks to always be a concern for Martin if he's not to stick at a middle IF position. Recently he's looked a lot more like the guy in Toronto during his '21 season. He's gonna be 22 in a couple months, which is average for AA, and this is his second season at that level. Some inconsistency is absolutely to be expected. Sure, if I'm a Jays fan I wouldn't be thrilled with Berrios' performance to date, but I'd also be looking at Martin and SWR and think Toronto sold high, and if I'm betting on a rebound it's more likely to come from the guy with a solid major league track record.
  13. KirbyDome89
    He had a terrible first and last start. In between, including some clunkers, his numbers aren't all that far off from what we'd expect. He also, ya know, mowed this Twins team down in Toronto couple weeks ago. SSS stamp and move on, at least for right now. Martin's value is at an all time low, after a handful of great games to start the year SWR has been pretty bad, and the Twins' pitching staff as a whole is unsurprisingly struggling. If I'm a Jays fan I'm certainly not bemoaning the trade.
  14. KirbyDome89
    I don't think the answer is necessarily to throw cash at multiple high end guys either, but I've lost a lot of confidence in the "spin gold out of straw," approach. It wasn't just Colome that tanked last season, and even though the pen stabilized a bit, it wasn't enough. History is slowly repeating itself. I totally agree that having a solid 3-4 arms like you named would go a long way and make it possible to hide guys like Pagan & Thielbar, though if Canterino is now strictly a relief arm (not saying you're wrong) the SP pipeline is taking some early Ls. The Twins had success with the front heavy strategy in '19. Duffey, May, and Rogers all had career years and threw 50ish innings. People forget how meh the rest of that bullpen was (they DFA'd their closer at the deadline ffs.) Another issue that gets less attention, but has already been mentioned, is SPs going deeper into games. Even with a solid 3-4 arms, you can't have a rotation turning in short starts 2-3 times per turn.
  15. KirbyDome89
    Possibly yeah, obviously more goes into it than just K%, I was singling out one factor. Agreed, I'm not going down the rabbit hole of chase rates, swinging strikes, ect. I don't necessarily think all strikes are created equal, and I certainly wouldn't put a Sanchez AB in the same category with Arraez. That was part of my nitpick. Same. Yeah, I saw they were middle of the pack in team K rate. I'm too lazy to look up what kind of impact extremes like Arraez or maybe Polanco have on the pitches seen per appearance, i.e. are the Twins the 6th most patient lineup in baseball, or is their current position buoyed by a couple guys while the rest of the lineup is more or less in line with the K% - average. It looked like moving 1% in either direction has them in the top or bottom third of the league as far as K% goes.
  16. KirbyDome89
    Polanco and Arraez absolutely have an approach that forces a pitcher to "work," but Buxton and Sanchez strike out a ton. I'm curious how much of an impact K% has on pitches seen per plate appearance.
  17. KirbyDome89
    Give it time.
  18. KirbyDome89
    Who aren't the Twins trading according to TD?
  19. KirbyDome89
    I was an Arcia truther; weird times. I still wouldn't count cash considerations as a W for the Twins. Ever. Jepsen was so bad during that TSF season that I almost think his negative contributions outweigh the positive, but it's not a hill to die on.
  20. KirbyDome89
    Is it? Is giving the Twins bullpen an extra inning of work "much worse," than 6 innings of 3 runs or less from your SP? The runs he has given up his last 6 (now 7) starts? The number of barrels he's catching or his hard hit percentage you seemed to gloss over? 3/4 of the 5 IP with fewer than 2 ER starts came in his first three games, which conveniently sidesteps my point about him being terrible lately, but yeah, I'm the one cherry picking....
  21. KirbyDome89
    0 quality starts in 9 chances. His ERA is north of 8 in his last six starts and it's because he's giving up tons of hard contact. It's been more down than up recently. The relationship always had an expiration date.
  22. KirbyDome89
    Yep. Smeltzer's good run continues and he slides into a solid setup role when Ryan and Gray are back? The FO is proactive rather than reactive with the 40 man and we see Canterino sooner rather than later?
  23. KirbyDome89
    Over, but only because it's the Twins...
  24. KirbyDome89
    How could I not be when trying to match such wit.
  25. KirbyDome89
    Yet entering today he had a FIP still north of 5.00. You can pick a game here or there, I'm sure today will be one of them, but the overall underlying numbers don't paint the picture of a guy that's being held back by his own team. Yikes at that Lance Lynn comp. If you told me that's what the Twins were getting I'd have have said run away. Because the Twins want to win those games. Do they need to leave him in the get absolutely blown up before we'll admit that Archer has worn down quickly and often found himself in trouble? Has the bullpen also not bailed him out at times?
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