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PopRiveter

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  1. PopRiveter
    I don't get the general dismissal of Archer. I see a pitcher who has been not just good, but excellent when healthy. He's young enough to still get strong after an from injury, he was trending very well post surgery and is now and far enough removed to start firing on all cylinders again. I think he's got too much upside, is too young, and has been too effective to compare to a 38 year old J.A. Happ, or either Shoemaker or Bundy (who'd been both been solid-but-unspectacular at their very best.) I see his acquisition more like when the Twins signed Pineda, except we don't have to wait through a rehab year. He should be good to go out of the gate. He might prove me wrong, but I think he'll more likely prove the skeptics wrong. Bundy's leash should be MUCH shorter. These are not comparable pitchers.
  2. PopRiveter
    This helps me put his production in context. I've been frustrated primarily with his extreme low batting averages. I'm old enough to care about that. He looks athletic, balanced, and in-control during at-bats. It always seems like he should be one of the better hitters on the team and you should be able to expect an 800-or-better OPS, But he's only produced like that one time. With a lot of players who underperform, you can imagine some adjustment or better coaching might unleash more of their talent, but he looks like he's already doing everything right. Apparently, I am not giving him enough credit for his fielding or those WAR values would be lower. His fielding is excellent. He seems like a good element in the clubhouse. He stays healthy. He doesn't make dumb mistakes. He sometimes contributes on offense. Until he's blocking an undeniable talent, I guess I shouldn't complain. Go Max! You're just fine I guess!
  3. PopRiveter
    This is a little off. It was 3 years (you are seeing 2018 3 times-I did the same thing.) During those 3 years, his FIP (expected ERA with fielding neutralized) was 3.81, 3.40, 3.75. Average is 4.20 By comparison, Berrios best ever FIP in MN was 3.47 In 2021, no starter other than Berrios posted a FIP below 4.10. Also, his WHIP through 2015 was 1.19. From 2016-18 it rose to 1.28. If Archer were to return to the production of any of his seasons other than 2019, he would likely be the Twins best starter in 2022. Injuries make that a very big IF.
  4. PopRiveter
    This is the first time I've seen a projected rotation that looks plausible. The Archer signing makes a real difference in my opinion. Still looks shaky. For a comparison... 2021 Opening Day Rotation: Maeda, Berrios, Pineda, Shoemaker, Happ I don't think you should ever feel good about swapping out a full rotation.
  5. PopRiveter
    I was a lot more excited about this news before I read the comments from all my TD brethren. Archer has pitched parts of nine seasons, and he's been a below-average starter in just one of those. He missed 2020 and most of last season with injury, but when he came back, he was right back to 9.8K/9 and a league average FIP. As long as he is healthy enough to pitch in 2022, he should be an asset and this contract is structured such that the real risk is just the innings they commit to him. There were definitely better FA starters available before the lockout, but that ship sailed long ago. I see Archer as a starter with a realistic chance to be very good. He's a much better option than I thought they'd find with Opening Day just 9 days away. And to equate him with Dylan Bundy? That is a joke. Bundy's career ERA and FIP are 4.72/4.69, while Archer's are 3.87/3.66- that's like a full run apart. Bundy's career average rate stats are not much better than those of Archer's worst season. When healthy, there's no comparison. Rich Hill is a much more accurate comp.
  6. PopRiveter
    I'm inclined to agree with your conclusion too. His skill set seems so well suited for the top of the lineup. Especially since he's such a threat on the bases. Also, every day he's healthy, I want him to bat as often as possible. He's my choice for leadoff. I didn't dig into the splits to make a counterargument. I was just curious if my impression matched reality and I was surprised to see what I saw. But here's another layer. Look at his situational splits in 2021: Bases Empty: .270/.317/.601 Men On: .368/.427/.724 RISP: .239/.300/.500 I almost can't understand how it possible that his production was so inflated with men on base while noticeably deflated with runners in scoring position. Still, he slugged .500 with RISP. I can certainly live with that. And It's probably an anomaly since he had only 50 PA with runners in scoring position. I come away from this convinced that his low RBI total is mostly due to opportunity. Even though batting him leadoff would carry that trend forward, I would still do it. He's just so fast and disruptive. Every time he gets on base with no outs, he has a chance to score even without a subsequent big hit. I think that maximizes his impact. Then again, if he's hitting home runs at a 40hr pace, I might be saying something totally different by June.
  7. PopRiveter
    This sounded right to me, but it got me thinking so I looked up splits and was surprised at what I saw. In 2021, 42% of all Twins PA’s came with men on base, and they hit 38% of their HR’s in that situation. Over Buxton’s career, 43% of his PA’s have been with men on, and only 34% of his HR’s were in that situation. So he’s been a little more solo-homer prone, but not dramatically. However in 2021, only 37% of his PA’s came with men on and 36% of his HR’s came with men on. So virtually no skew. He was almost equally likely to homer in either situation. It was just a matter of opportunity. I did not expect the numbers to say that.
  8. PopRiveter
    That was a fun read. I appreciate the context. I’ve admired his game from afar, but didn’t quite grasp the level of his performance as you present it. Feels awfully good to have a top shelf shortstop on the club.
  9. PopRiveter
    Just remind Correa to aim the ball about 8 inches higher than where Altuve’s glove was because, you know, height.
  10. PopRiveter
    I personally LOVE the flexibility of this deal. Basically, as long as it is successful for both sides, we can get 3 years of a great player and a chance to extend. If the team tanks, he bails and the Twins don’t have to pay. It’s rare that I like an expensive free agent signing, but this is a no-lose proposition in my opinion.
  11. PopRiveter
    “The delicious irony of trading the expensive contract of aging third baseman Josh Donaldson, only to sign the All-Star shortstop coveted by the Yankees with the newly-freed funds, is a breathtakingly brazen and exquisite move almost too delightful to put into words.” So well said! I’m on board. Let’s make baseball fun again!
  12. PopRiveter
    Exactly. I wish I could buy you a beer... ...or get you hired to the Front Office.
  13. PopRiveter
    Of course not. You'd have to be a true idiot to trade Berrios for that little a return. PS. The joke is that in July, the Twins traded Jose Berrios to Toronto for Austin Martin and Simeon Woods-Richardson. It was my snarky way of saying I wish they'd have signed him instead of making the trade.
  14. PopRiveter
    I'll miss him stealing our lunch money and making rude comments. Now, he can go to NY, (maybe 'roid up), and knock us out of the playoffs. I'm hoping to love Jose Miranda.
  15. PopRiveter
    My dream: Sign Eddie Rosario. Make me care about the Twins again. Then, yeah Trevor Story would be thrilling and welcome. Also, need one more quality starter. Maybe offer Toronto Austin Martin and RHP Simeon Woods-Richardson for Jose Berrios? See what I did there?
  16. PopRiveter
    I should also mention, I loved the article. I think you captured highlights of his tenure well. I admittedly have an unfairly slanted take and would not have written a fair article. Yours was objective, respectful, balanced, and a pleasure to read. Thanks!
  17. PopRiveter
    I saw that tantrum very differently than the two of you did. I agree he was right to feel upset, but his lack of self-control hurt the team badly. He showed up the ump intentionally and so aggressively it became a national sports-news item. My stomach turned because I just knew the Twins could expect slanted calls from umps if they made the playoffs. They did make the playoffs and I remember that game well. JD was, of course, out with an injury. He loudly showed his support by jawing at the umps from the dugout. Ensuring they wouldn't forget that the Twins "team leader" was the guy who went out of his way to show them up whenever possible. There were 2 distinctly different strike zones that day. Twins pitchers were pinched. Every close call went to the Astros. The Twins couldn't overcome it. The FO committed the big dollars to him and soon moved on from core players who I loved to watch (like Rosario, Berrios, May) and my interest in the team has waned badly. To me, his Twins legacy has been changing my beloved Bomba Squad into a team that's been hard to root for. Whether you love him or hate him, don't you agree he is natural fit as a Yankee? I've always seen him as a Yankee at heart. It feels like the force achieved some balance with this move.
  18. PopRiveter
    Man. Baseball keeps getting less fun around here so I turned to following the Caribbean. This would have made me so happy at Target Field next season…
  19. PopRiveter

    Bring on the kids

    PopRiveter commented on Franz's blog entry in Greg Fransen

    I sure enjoyed reading this. It did help crystalize a few thoughts for me. 1-Donaldson's presence is effectively limiting playing time for the mix of Miranda, Arraez, Kirilloff, and Larnach. That's 4 of the players I'm most interested in watching in 2022. JD is still a strong contributor, but he needs to be in the playoff mix or his "competitive fire" skews a lot more negative. I want his attitude around a young, developing team about as much as I want to hire Chuck Knoblauch as a bench coach. 2-I am pretty sure I don't have any interest in watching Nick Gordon tryout as SS. Wouldn't mind if Polanco slid back over there until a better glove pushed him off the position. Maybe a one year contract for a B-level free agent until Lewis can prove he's ready? 3-Garver at catcher is a really good deal for this team isn't it? I'm glad they have that in place. I've heard speculation about moving off him this year, but I think he a great priority piece to keep in place.
  20. PopRiveter
    Sign me up for any efficient, effective out-getter. Strikeouts are great when they come in 3 or 4 pitches but I am not in love with strings of long, drawn out at bats. For my dollar, a 2-pitch weak groundout or pop-up is a welcome result for a starter. Before anyone gets on base, it is more valuable than a 7 pitch strikeout. “Pitch to Contact” is a misleading term. It should be called “Pitch to induce weak contact, early in the count, when there are no runners on base.” Just hard to use that name to taunt your fellow fans.
  21. PopRiveter
    Eddie makes baseball fun and he got me to watch some great baseball during the World Series after more-or-less opting out of an entire season of Twins baseball. I'm so happy for him. Maybe this was the peak, but I hope he gets to cash in and ride this success. I hope he's found the right home where he can have a strong and happy prime-career stretch. Dude is a force on the ballfield.
  22. PopRiveter
    I hope he can get a few years of good pay, but he's got 2 more years of arbitration and he's coming off a salary of $1.85mil in 2020. He's projected to make around $3mil next year which means if he's really productive he could maybe make $10mil (?) in 2022. Those two years should be productive and a true bargain. I would stick with him if I were the Twins. As a 33 year old, if he is coming of consecutive healthy, productive years, Garver could maybe get something like the Yasmani Grandal 4/$73mil, but that would really be best case scenario for him at that age in my estimation.
  23. PopRiveter
    From this point in his career, Garver cannot become expensive. He will be compensated at the rate of a role player. However, he's shown us he has the upside potential to be a star-level producer. I would like to see the team keep him around for at least 2 more years. Low risk/high reward opportunity.
  24. PopRiveter
    A: I enjoy it every time you write. You find the fun in baseball. B: Missing Rosario big-time right now but I just got to watch him come up with a big catch in game 4 of the World Series, sooooooooo hope Josh Donaldson’s fans have a good movie to watch and a nice, warm fire to relax near.
  25. PopRiveter
    Not too mention Eddie’s entering his prime years while Larnach, Kiriloff and Rooker are all still a few years before what should be their peak career stretches. The decision to move off Eddie was made a year prior when the FO chose to make Josh Donaldson the financial centerpiece of the team. That oversized domino has already pushed Rosario and Berrios out and it is about to push Buxton out. It made me emotionally check out on the lame 2021 season even before the losses started piling up. Passing on the JD signing would’ve been a much better decision than choosing not to retain ER. Fun baseball is happening in Atlanta. Go Braves!
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