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PopRiveter

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  1. I find it hard to argue with you about May. He is prone to occasionally fall apart and he gets hit HARD when he gets hit. The outs he gets come by strikeout, but opponents are slashing .275/.315/.493 with 2.7 HR/9 against him this year. I like May a lot, but that's not dominance and among this group he isn't standing out the right way. Clippard though? All he does is get outs.
  2. Totally disagree Nick. Eddie is a flawed player, but he is the Twins most talented and gifted hitter not named Cruz. For example, compare his career OPS (.786) with Max Kepler's (.763). Max has done it with a very disciplined approach that seems to maximize his talent while Eddie's does even more damage with unrefined talent. I think he has another level accessible to him that he can reach as a hitter if he keeps trending toward being a more-disciplined hitter. What Eddie lacks as a hitter can come with age, experience, training. Might be time to move on from Max? If Larnach, Rooker or Kiriloff were to put up a batting line a little below Rosario's average tripleslash, they'd likely win ROY. Much more likely, we should hope they will trend toward that level of production by year 3 of their careers. All that said, you'll probably get your way. Somebody has to make way for the wave of upcoming prospects and Kepler's under control 'til 2024. Prepare for an offensive drop off.
  3. May is inducing some swings that are nowhere close
  4. I was really pleased to see this write-up. The current FO deserves plenty of credit for developing the talent that they inherited, but after 2 seasons and 3 off-seasons to churn the roster, they enter 2019 with starters at C, 1B, 2B, SS, LF, CF, RF all from the previous regime as well as their top SP +some SP "depth" guys, 3 of their best relievers. TR and Bill Smith guys hit 169 home runs for the Twins last year. They left the cupboards well-stocked on the offensive side. I'm impressed by the current FO's talent development. Waiting for more evidence before I draw any conclusions about their ability to identify and obtain new, unproven talent. In any case. I'm thankful they chose to ride Terry Ryan's horse rather than blow it up and start over.
  5. I was so confused until following the link. I read the ad and then came back. I've now been laughing for quite a long time. Thanks for the link!
  6. Cruz was a fantastic hired gun, but whatever Falvey says, Nelson Cruz will not be remembered first as a Twin. He won't be wearing a Twins uniform in the HOF. I personally got more satisfaction from watching Kepler, Berrios, Garver, Sano, Rosario, Buxton, Duffey etc thrive last year than I did watching Nelson Cruz. I'm an outlier on this issue. I just can't start caring about a free agent signee the same as a I do a guy that I've been dreaming on through the minors. My comments were to acknowledge that I'm totally irrational on this issue and despite my prejudice against free agent signings, even I can't find a reason to complain about the Donaldson signing.
  7. I actively dislike like free agent signings as a fan because it breaks continuity & team identity. It makes me care less about t team when the faces change abruptly. That said, I can't find any way to spin this negatively. The Twins have the funds available. This doesn't impact their ability to retain their rising talent. Josh is a tremendous third baseman. If I'm going to pick nits, I would've rather been heading into year 2 of Eduardo Escobar's current contract than heading into year 1 of Josh Donaldson's new deal. Okay, I'm done with that. This looks like a great signing!
  8. I'm excited to see that picture of him looking like such a fit, athletic version of himself and I love this news. I'm not ready to be done watching him play for my Twins.
  9. Every one of those figures looks like a bargain when I attach it to my own projection of what each player might produce. This exercise has convinced me that I am officially an optimist. Perhaps unrealistically so.
  10. Maybe the FO is picking up on something legitimate. I guess we have to hope so. If nothing else, there is another arm in the pool. I'm not feeling inspired. Oh well. I'm still glad to write Berrios and Odo's names in the rotation slots. All the other guys I look forward to seeing likely wont make the team but Bailey+Hill+Pineda don't represent formidable barriers to forcing one's way into a rotation.
  11. This was just what I needed. “The heck is a game show on at night for anyway,” asked former Twins manager Ron Gardenhire. “Phrase that in the form of a question.”
  12. And I was just pointing out, his track record and career arc wouldn't make me project an "average" 2020 contribution. His age and stats would make me expect he's about done as a major league contributor. His 2019 league average performance represented a marked improvement over the previous 4 years. Homer Bailey's past 5 years: 5.56 ERA, 96 IP per year Kyle Gibson's past 5 years: 4.41 ERA, 171 IP per year The FO has to be seeing a story that his basic stats don't tell. I'm skeptical because his bbref page doesn't say "upgrade." It really looks like a pitcher who signs to a minor league contract + spring training invitation. If the best we can hope is league average production, I'd rather see those innings allotted to an ascending pitcher. Of course, that might not be the best we can hope for. i just don't see it. Thanks for engaging in a respectful and thoughtful discussion.
  13. Good points about base stealing, but speed is also about advancing and scoring. With Buxton on second, almost any subsequent single scores a run. With Arraez standing on second it better be a well-struck, well-placed, outfield single. ...or just hit a double. ...or a home run. That's probably what they'll do anyway.
  14. I enjoy how this article concisely made a case for each. I think Arraez seems the best fit for winning each game, but I think there is also a case to be made for giving Buxton as many at-bats as possible to try and help him catch-up on his development after missing so much time in his career so far. If Buxton can pay off more of his potential, he can render this debate moot.
  15. Just looking at his bbref page, I can't see how this could possibly be characterized as an "upgrade." It doesn't just look like a downgrade from Kyle Gibson, but a downgrade from a replacement level pitcher. I don't see how Bailey possibly qualifies for anything above a minor league deal (like he signed entering last year.) He had a nice, solid run that ended in 2014. From 2015 on, he's posted a 5.56(!) ERA while averaging only 79 innings per year. Most of that was posted in the NL where average ERA has been hovering around 4.30 At age 34, that is a recipe for unemployment or minor league duty. I think giving the innings to internal options or AAAA rule 5 or waiver wire pitchers would be a more appealing option as it has potential for some upside. Are we to project Bailey's production solely on the 73 pretty-good innings he pitched with Oakland? Should we be convinced that those 73 innings are representative of what can be expected in 2020? Moreso than the previous 4.5 years? Are we supposed to be convinced by his track record of having a better FIP (4.71 since 2015)? Are we not supposed to remember how that reasoning worked when we brought in Nolasco? I don't get this one at all.
  16. 3 bright spots in the wake of last night: 1) Luis Arraez is one a heck of an unflappable hitter. I'm a fan. 2) I somehow managed not to choke to death on my own vomit. 3) "Rocco Baldelli is extremely happy." -That warms my heart. Just super. Next time a bully beats up my kid at school, I'll try to follow Rocco's example and remind everyone that I'm extremely happy. It is very helpful and welcome.
  17. Sports have taught me that Yankees are not humans and do not deserve empathy or mercy. It will feel so good to my aching soul if these Twins can deliver a victory. May there be blood tonight!
  18. From the outside, it sure seems like Falvey is adept at alienating and angering key players. Baldelli might have an impossible task trying to keep players feeling comfortable and appreciated while the FO treats even the golden child as a commodity rather than a person. It was probably the right call to shut down Buxton’s 2018, but only if you could do it in a way that made him feel respected. I think Falvey failed in this regard and Molitor lost his job for it. I’m having trouble rooting for this team right now but I’m still pulling for Buxton.
  19. Rodney improved to 3-for-6 on save opportunities with this tight rope walk. Ugh. He’s exactly who I was afraid he is.
  20. Can we agree on “Rotteny”? “FernandNoooooo!”?
  21. It’s Ex-lax time. We need some runs
  22. The Rodney move is always going to have me on edge.I’m going to need to stock up on more wine.
  23. I always like looking at Baseball Reference "Similar Batters" list for context. The Vargas list for "Similar Batters Through 26" starts with Paul Sorrento at the top and includes Blaine's own Dan Johnson and Kevin Maas. There's value in those players, but David Ortiz is decidedly not on the list.
  24. Was pleased to find this and give it a listen. Thanks John!
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