Cap'n Piranha

Not quite. This assumes that each team pays 26, and only 26, players MLB wages. Anytime a player is on the IL, this of course raises that number. It's much more likely that over the course of the season, a team will pay the equivalent of 30-32 MLB players. That puts the average salary somewhere between $5.7M and $6.1M at a 50% share. I'll leave aside the conversation of whether a 50/50 split of all profits is "fair".

Completely disagree. It’s time for a rebuild, and someone other than Falvine should be the architect. They’ve had 7 off-seasons, 4 of which presented clear need for upgrades combined with clear payroll space, and the sum total of their moves is 4 years of Josh Donaldson (only 2 of which happened), and 1 year of Correa that was handed to them on a platter. They’re never going to do what it takes to turn this team into a true contender, so I’d rather be done with them now.

I mean, not to quibble or anything, but if you have positive WAR, you are by definition not below replacement level.

The Giants may indeed get a near-zero return on their $27M for 3-5 years in the future. But they may also get a $40M-$60M return on their $27M for 8-10 years now. Seems like something that could very well happen in the "real world".

Lewis was questionable to stick at short before the first ACL injury, let alone the second. Lee was also iffy as a future short before the draft. We can hope that at least one if not both ultimately can be a competent defensive SS at the MLB level, but if I had to put a bet on it, I'd wager neither will be as good as Polanco was at short, which is to say, not particularly good.

It's actually a very good strategy to identify what traits good players have in common, and then look for those attributes in "not good" players. What this FO has failed at too many times in my opinion is to identify what traits good players don't have, and avoid "not good" players who do have those traits.

Because the Giants want Correa for the first 6-8 years of the contract, but didn't want to pay $40M-$50M in AAV. They pay less per year, for more years, freeing up space under the luxury tax to hand out more big contracts, while knowing that $27M in 2030-2035 is more like $20M-$22M today, while the average payroll in MLB might be $250M.

Disagree on the staff. What this staff has in spades is guys who should be decent MLB starters. Gray, Maeda, Ryan, Ober, Varland, Winder, SWR, and potentially Mahle and Paddack are all perfectly acceptable 3-5 starters, with even some #2 potential here and there. Filling innings will not be a problem for this staff (at least no more so than it is for any other team); finding an ace and a good #2 will be a problem.

Maybe, just maybe, a professional athlete with 8 figures of net worth playing for an organization with annual revenues well into 9 figures can secure better medical care than anonymous posters on a Twins message board. The decision was not about years 8/10 to 13, which everyone knows will be an overpay. But that's the cost to get a borderline MVP candidate for years 1-5/7 without having to hit a near $40M AAV. Will the Giants regret this contract? Possibly, if Correa does indeed struggle with injuries. But if he puts up 25-35 WAR in the next 6 years, and leads them to a title? They'll be more than happy to pay him for 7 more years as a team leader/elder statesman in the clubhouse.

The Twins cannot compete with LA or NY on total payroll. There is absolutely no reason they cannot compete with any team on any one individual player, especially when the Twins assiduously avoid future payroll constraints. This FO seems to think that one individual player doesn't exist, because Correa certainly checks every box for type of player to commit large dollars to. The Twins should not operate like Tampa/Cle/Oak because they are not those markets. They can afford to sign a big FA here or there. At the end of the day, the Twins will always have to rely mostly on development in order to be competitive, with an occasional foray into FA to fill a glaring hole. I'm just about out of belief that Falvinelli can actually operate a regime that is capable of development.

It's super fascinating to me how many people on this forum dislike Falvine because of Falvine supposedly thinking they are the smartest guys in the room. Would we prefer our FO not be the smartest guys in the room?

Opening day could be May 30, if the pool of available talent is dry, it's dry. There are two impact players left, and only two, that don't require a massive outflux of talent that the current Twins system doesn't really have.

I agree with your first paragraph. The problem is that when Falvine took over after 2016, only 6-10 teams weren't in the dark ages, and over the past 6 years, only 6-10 teams (at most) haven't gotten out of the dark ages. The improvements they made are commendable, but it's not good enough if it's the same improvements a third to half of the rest of the league were also making. Until such time as the Twins are going to be actual players in free agency from time to time, the FO is going to have to be distinctly better than 20-25 other FOs. I don't currently see the evidence that Falvey and Levine meet that standard.

I have been a defender of the Front Office since they started, largely because the on-field product improved markedly and immediately upon their arrival. That said, the last two years have been disheartening, and the past two offseasons especially so. My thoughts, in no particular order; Payroll flexibility is only a positive thing if you eventually use it. If I walk into a mall to buy a gift for my wife, and keep walking out of stores because the value isn't there, my wife is going to be very upset on Christmas morning when I tell her that her gift is and empty box and my resolute ability to avoid overpaying. This offseason can still be won, but will require immediately landing Rodon and Swanson on matching 6yr/$180M. Given the Twins (apparently) never even offered Correa, whom they loved, $300M...no chance that happens. The offseason is salvageable if they get one of those contracts done. If they get neither done, then it is 3 straight complete and total whiffs. If your plan is to be so good at drafting and developing talent that you can fill out your roster with enough excess to still trade for key players to put you over the top, that's fine. But you have to actually be able to do that, and to date, Falvine have not proven they can do it. For a long time, they could hide behind youth of draft classes, and unlucky injuries. But now we're 6 years in. The grace period is over. Other posters are saying they don't blame the Twins for the Correa situation. I do. The Twins can absolutely afford 13/$350M, they consciously chose not to do it. The Twins have no large incremental outlays on the horizon for at least 3-4 years, by which point the payroll should be closer to $160M to $170M. Given the difference in tax rates (100ish games at 12.3% CA tax with SF, as opposed to 81 at 9.85% MN tax), the Twins probably didn't need to get to $350M to be money neutral. According to Forbes (whose data appears to be potentially out of date), Correa would pay $2.4M in CA tax for the 100 or so games he plays in CA. It's not apples to apples, but for the 81 games he plays in MN, his state tax bill is $1.4M. Any way you cut it, especially when you consider how much more expensive SF is than TC, it probably costs an extra $1M to $1.5M a year to live in SF. Given that, 13/$335M should have been enough to get it done.

Directionally accurate, but mathematically erroneous. Also, mop-up relievers and third catchers will continue to be, almost exclusively, rookie-scale guys. The minimum salary for an MLB player will not exceed $12M for decades, assuming major league baseball is still a thing that far into the future.

Must be just you. I've been reliably informed by multiple people on this site that all owners are greedy, parsimonious misers cruelly depressing wages in order to screw the decent, hard working players.

The Wolves have won the lottery 2.5 times in the last 8 years (the half for the year that Cleveland won, although everyone knew whomever they picked was being traded, with the Wolves one of the few competitors to be said trade partner).

The Yankees weren't the Yankees until TK was well in to a nearly decade-long stretch of losing that any serious organization would have fired him for after 1996 at the latest.

Not if the garage you sold is your second garage, and you just park the Porsche in the main one. At the end of the day, paying Correa $35M to $40M a year is easier, at least over the next two years, without Polanco's $7.5M and $10.5M salaries. Also worth noting that it's not crazy to suggest that some combination of Lee/Julien/Martin/Lewis/Farmer/Arraez could more or less replicate most or all of Polanco's production. The Twins have a glut of middle infield players at or near the MLB level, so clearing some of that to work towards obtaining elite level talent is the move, in my opinion.

Not quite. I can afford a Porsche; that doesn't mean I'll go buy one. But if I refinance my house and save a couple hundred dollars a month on my mortgage, all of the sudden that Porsche becomes more doable.

Arraez should never play 2B again. His knees just cannot hold up at any position other than 1B, and his bat is way too valuable to sacrifice. If Polanco is moved, it needs to be because that was the price to afford Correa and/or Rodon, with Lewis, Julien, Martin, and Lee battling to handle one or both of those slots.

If clearing Polanco's contract is the difference between signing/not signing Correa and/or Rodon, then yes, by all means move him (throw Kepler in while you're at it). If not, keep him around for at least one more year, and reassess both Polanco's and the team's performance at both the trade deadline and next offseason. The team can move on from Polanco after 2024 for only a $1M buyout, so even if he takes another step back this year, there are worse things than a 1 year, $10.5M 2B/DH.

I'm not so sure that Correa agrees to the proposed creative contract, unless I'm understanding it wrong. Is the gist that even if the Twins pick up the extra 5 years for $125M, Correa can still opt out after the very next season? If so, in what world do the Twins opt for a 5yr $125M contract which runs from 2027-2031, but a non-injured Correa does not immediately opt out after the 2026 season? Keep in mind that 5 years from $25M a year will be borderline second starter money, not future HOF at the tail of their prime money. If the Twins exercising that 5 year option negates any opt out for Correa, Correa is essentially maxing out at 9/$300, with a real risk of "only" realizing 4/$175M. As others have pointed out, Correa is going to want to maximize his earnings, so he's going to want a very clear path to $300M minimum, and this contract creates a real risk to that happening if he gets injured or declines in the next 3 years.

As we tick off the last few meaningless games of the 2022 season, attention turns to 2023. With a little bit of Falvinelli self-reflection, I think a very successful 2023 is well within the realm of possibility. Here are 6 reasons why. The starting rotation should (hopefully) be at worst solid, if not a strength. With Gray and Ryan returning, the Twins have 2 starters with sub 4 ERAs--while advanced stats are a little more cautious, both are still seen as solid options. Add in the expected return of Maeda, who when last healthy pitched like a borderline ace, reasonable progression from Varland, Winder, and Ober, the potential emergence of SWR, and a potential return from injury for Mahle and Paddack, and the Twins have 9 options who profile as legitimate MLB starters. That is more depth than the Twins have had in the rotation in a long time; are there still questions, particularly around health? Absolutely. But there is also hope. The starting lineup should (hopefully) be filled with above average hitters from just about top to bottom. Jeffers at C, Kiriloff at 1B, Polanco at 2B, Lewis at SS, Miranda at 3B, Buxton at CF, Wallner/Larnach at the corners, and Arraez at DH; that's a very solid lineup that should be able to put up some runs. Add in Gordon as depth, and the top 10 for the Twins, on paper, looks like a first division outfit. Everyone will need to stay healthy, which is a very big ask, but if that happens, the Twins should score runs in bunches. The bullpen has (hopefully) a very solid foundation. Duran is all-world; 1st in velo, 13th in ERA, 3rd in xFIP. Theilbar and Jax have been very solid contributors, and Alcala should hopefully be back, bringing yet more velo to the pen, Moran has shown some flashes, and if he can get the walks under control, he'll be a real weapon. Lopez is unfortunately a major question mark, and potential liability, but there is reason to hope that the Twins already have 4-5 solid options in the pen, 3 of whom have average velo above 95. That's the best talent base for a pen the Twins have had in quite some time. Falvine should (hopefully) avoid some of the bad decisions that have plagued the last 2 seasons. For two years in a row, Falvine have acquired a bullpen arm, installed that arm as closer, and watched said pitcher absolutely torpedo the season. If they didn't know before, they should know now; the bullpen cannot be allowed to sink the season through lack of options, especially if starters are going to be inning restricted. I think Falvey and Levine are both intelligent, and if they're humble enough to admit mistakes, I have every confidence they will avoid repeating them. The injury luck should (hopefully) be better. I mean, it can't be worse, right? Right? The payroll should (hopefully) allow the Twins to make one, or maybe even two big moves in FA. According to Spotrac, the Twins have $118M on the books for next year; however, that includes Correa, Bundy, Archer, and Sano. If none of those players return, that $118M drops precipitously, to $48M; if the Twins are also able to move Kepler's contract, that drops below $40M. Between arb raises and rookie-scale deals, the Twins should easily be able to keep the payroll below $100M (this all changes if Correa opts in, of course). That's plenty of room to make a big move.

I yearn for an alternate universe where the FO signed one of Gausman, Ray, or Rodon in FA, and therefore didn't need to trade for either Paddack OR Mahle. A Twins team with one of those 3 in the rotation, plus Rogers instead of Pagan in the bullpen might very well be headed to the playoffs; the resulting increase in fan interest along with added revenue from postseason games would pay for a sizable chunk of that salary. When Falvinelli does their post-mortem of this season, I hope that fact stands out; refusal to invest money led directly to the need to part with talent multiple times, while also directly impacting the financial topline negatively.