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Cap'n Piranha

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Everything posted by Cap'n Piranha

  1. Cap'n Piranha
    I would have chosen a guy who hadn't already blown 3 games against the same team in the last 8 days. I wouldn't have known if any of them would work, but I pretty confidently would have known that Pagan would not work.
  2. Cap'n Piranha
    I have to think it’s a little hard for Rocco to look 25 guys in the face tonight. Going into tonight, the Twins had played Cleveland 6 times in the last 8 days. They were 3-3, with all 3 losses directly attributable to Emilio Pagan. Rocco’s decision to put him in was utter lunacy. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me thrice, GoT level shame on me. Fool me four times? “Hi, my name’s Rocco Baldelli”.
  3. Cap'n Piranha
    Falvine seems to enjoy signing veteran reclamation projects as rotation depth. As such, they have a vested interest in maintaining the ability to promise starter’s innings every offseason to whichever pitcher they want to sign to a year plus option contract. I would therefore be very surprised to see either Archer or Bundy ditched from the rotation unless they go full Happ/Shoemaker.
  4. Cap'n Piranha
    Very true the Twins have a lot of intriguing arms coming up. Also very true that probably half or more of them will be ineffective at the ML level or get switched to the bullpen (after all, up until this year Duran was one of our 3 best SP prospects). Additionally, very true that in modern baseball, you will need more than 5 or even 6 starters. You'll need at minimum 7 or 8 MLB caliber starters every single year; the Twins have already used at least 9 this year, and we're not even halfway through the season (Gray, Ryan, Ober, Paddack, Archer, Bundy, Winder, Smeltzer, and Gonzalez). Because of that, unless you want to try and churn out 3 new MLB caliber starters every single year from your MiLB system, every organization will have to pay arb or FA money to starters. Even if you could get 2 new MLB caliber starters every year, you'll still need 2-4 starters on arb or FA deals. As such, I'd rather invest $12M a year in a Sonny Gray than have to take fliers every single year on Happs, Shoemakers, Bundys, and Archers. Sometimes it will work, but when it doesn't, it's going to be a problem.
  5. Cap'n Piranha
    At this point, someone needs to be the designated piggyback to Archer. It’s very clear that the Twins are just not going to let Archer go more than 5, so whether it’s Winder, Cotton, or Thornburg, there should be someone who knows that they will get 4-5 innings every 5 days, and the other 7 guys in the bullpen will handle the other 4 days.
  6. Cap'n Piranha
    Even if Gray is your #5 starter in 2026, $12M for one year is not a problem at all. I think having a veteran around to mentor Ryan, Ober, Winder, Smeltzer, Varland, et al is a very good move to make, especially if it will cost you less than $50M in the next 4 years. If Gray is willing to sign on for 4 more years at $48M, you do that immediately. If you’re that worried about the 2026 season, make it 3/$39 with a $15M option in 2026, with a $3M buyout.
  7. Cap'n Piranha
    The most shocking thing to me about all this is that somehow LSU can more than double his current salary (assuming the reported numbers are accurate). The Twins bring in well into 8 figures of revenue a year, and they pay their second-most important on-field employee half of what a rookie 26th man makes? Absolute insanity. That said, leaving in the middle of the season is a fairly scummy move by Wes, and makes me think less of him.
  8. Cap'n Piranha
    Pure speculation, but maybe the sheer workload is starting to catch up to him. Jose never had that traditional workhorse frame, so maybe the 15 thousand pitches he's thrown since the beginning of 2016 (which of course does not include spring training, postseason, or workouts) has just worn him down. Since he's never really been injured, he never got any relief from that. Of course, perhaps Jose can still turn this around, but if this is a preview of what Berrios might be now, the decision to trade him last July was a prescient one (the choice in return might be another story).
  9. Cap'n Piranha
    In the case of tonight’s game, I don’t really blame Rocco for not calling for Buxton or Correa to bunt. Were it Jeffers or Gordon up, then perhaps there’s a case to bunt.
  10. Cap'n Piranha
    So Steer has clearly moved ahead of Martin in the Twins MI prospect pecking order; it might be time to start wondering if the same is true for Julien. He’s younger (by about 5 weeks), and is significantly outperforming Martin at the same level. Better average, OBP, and SLG, along with way more walks (although also way more k’s). If there was a team who wanted one of those three in a trade, and let me choose which one to give up, I’d be very tempted to give up Martin.
  11. Cap'n Piranha
    This loss goes directly on Rocco. If you’re willing to let Duran go two innings, why wouldn’t you make those two innings be the 8th and the 9th? If you want to keep his workload down by only letting him pitch one inning, then why trot him out there in the 10th? Feels like Rocco wanted to have his cake, and eat it too. So to sum up, Rocco used his only good bullpen option for two innings (so he won’t be available Wednesday), the Twins never had the lead while said pitcher was in the game, and they ended up losing. Absolutely brutal.
  12. Cap'n Piranha
    I find it unlikely as of right now that the Twins would trade veterans. If they do, Urshela is the only real candidate because he has both the extra year of control (to up the return), and the ease of replacement (Arraez or Miranda). You could trade Kepler, but you're then counting on 3 rookies (Kiriloff, Larnach, Celestino) to hold down your corner outfield in a pennant race and postseason. You could trade Sanchez, but he's a FA after this year, and Jeffers as your lead catcher is problematic. As such, I think it's much more likely the Twins swing a couple small deals at the deadline for relief help, unless something crazy falls in their lap. This offseason is where there could be a lot of movement though--I would not be shocked to see the Twins trade Polanco, Urshela, and Kepler, while walking away from Sanchez, Sano, and Correa. They could then have the payroll space to bring in 2 stars (Trea Turner and Carlos Rodon?), or do a lot of Polanco/Kepler style deals for their current pre-arb group (Arraez, Ryan, Winder, Larnach, Kiriloff, and Lewis could all be locked up for a sum total of $30M to $40m a year).
  13. Cap'n Piranha
    It seems fairly clear at this point that Archer will be allowed to face 18 batters and no more. As such, I honestly have no idea why they wouldn't use an opener for him, and the allow him to face 21 batters (since batters 19-21 would theoretically be 4-6 or 5-7 instead of 1-3).
  14. Cap'n Piranha
    The Emilio Pagan Experience. Basically, even when Pagan successfully closes out the game, it takes 20 pitches, 25 minutes, and invariably involves baserunners, often in scoring position.
  15. Cap'n Piranha
    I was at the game, and Emilio Pagan is a worthy successor to Fernando Rodney. The EPE is a real thing.
  16. Cap'n Piranha
    This is the right question. If it’s actually schedules, Buxton and Correa being scheduled for rest could have been foreseen days ago, and the plan could have been altered. So either the Twins are making schedules for rest for both players, and then not comparing them, or they literally don’t care if both sit on the same day, which would indicate that they will adhere to a schedule as opposed to flexibility. The third option is that the Twins did indeed assume they would lose yesterday even with Buxton and/or Correa playing, so they decided before the series even began to shoot for 2-1 by trying hardest to win Friday and Saturday. No matter what the explanation actually is, I don’t think Rocco was being particularly honest with Gleeman, as a little logic reveals the inanity of Rocco’s rambling, incoherent non-answer.
  17. Cap'n Piranha
    Maybe we're selling low. Or maybe we're not. That is the gamble that might need to be taken.
  18. Cap'n Piranha
    Say, didn’t you use to be Austin Martin, top prospect?
  19. Cap'n Piranha
    In case Rocco was wondering, the 7th would have been a great time to throw Duran out there for two innings, given he’s only thrown 8 pitches in the last 4 days before today. Get through the 8-5 hitters (assumes one base runner), and see what you can do to get a couple more runs. After that, you just have to piece together the 9th against hitters 6-8/9.
  20. Cap'n Piranha
    I'm not assuming he won't improve his bat. I'm understanding the reality that he did not improve his bat from last year, so you're assuming he will improve his bat, despite all the available evidence indicating otherwise. Why do you have a .300 AVG baseline for him, when he's literally never done that in his professional career? If your thesis is that the Twins screwed him up by pushing him to add power, and he just needs to return to the approach he had while in Toronto's system, you have to acknowldge he hit .281 there. Obviously I would love to have another Arraez player; but there is nothing in Austin Martin's professional career that suggests he is anywhere near the caliber of hitter Luis Arraez is. You know who is actually more likely to be an Arraez type hitter? Edouard Julien, who is younger and performing better than Martin at the same level (and in his first go-around at that level to boot).
  21. Cap'n Piranha
    Why in the love of all that is holy would we expect him to have a 380+ OBP in MLB when HE CAN'T EVEN DO THAT IN AA? Of course I understand the value of high OBP, I just don't think Austin Martin is a good bet to have a high OBP. Martin currently has a .361 OBP in a league where the average OBP is .352, so he's 2.5% better than the average AA Central hitter. That's it. In MLB this year the average OBP is .311, so if Martin maintains his gap in performance to the league, he would have a .319 OBP, which would put him 87th in MLB, just behind Tony Kemp. On average and power, his projected numbers in MLB would be .229 (95.7% of league average) and .329 (84.7% of league average). That's a slash of .229/.319/.329/.648--that makes Martin, essentially, IKF. You really think an IKF clone (except with more speed and much less defensive value) should be considered a top prospect? You're right that my view is based on 2 months--that just happens to be about 35% of his entire professional career. 2 months is not a small sample size unless you're on the IL at least twice during that stretch. I just do not understand why this year's performance is just being blithely waved away as not concerning.
  22. Cap'n Piranha
    Average is not meaningless. Average is meaningless if you have power--power hitters can maintain high OBPs in the majors without average, because they'll get walks due to pitchers not wanting to challenge them, and therefore nibbling. Without power, to maintain a high OBP, a player is going to have to get hits, otherwise pitchers will never throw him balls--why would they, since they know he's unlikely to get a hit, and if he does get a hit, it will be a single which is approximately the same as a walk anyways? If you think Martin will tee off when pitchers go after him, then how do you explain his strikeouts? He has 28 in 216 PA this year (for comparison, Arraez has 16 in 188). Since he takes a lot of walks, he clearly has a good eye right? So to strikeout that much means he's not an elite contact hitter. Guys at the MLB level who don't make elite contact, and don't have power, do not have high OBPs--they just don't. Name one guy in MLB around the 80th percentile for contact rate, but with no power, who still has a high OBP. I'll wait.
  23. Cap'n Piranha
    You are correct, Martin has one more non-40 man year. I got mixed up when I saw a TC designation next year for him on Spotrac, and incorrectly assumed that meant he had to be on the 40 man--my bad. I hope Martin takes off this summer--it would be awesome if he followed the Royce Lewis 2019 path and went to the AFL and was the best hitter there. The problem there of course is that Royce Lewis is actually younger than Martin, and had that breakout when he had just turned 20 three months earlier, not five months before turning 24. And given the trend we're seeing from Martin, thinking he'll improve is based on nothing other than hope. I would bet big money that if Austin Martin finishes the year at AA with a sub .725 OPS, he will appear on no global top 100 lists next year. There is plenty of reason to worry about Austin Martin. Pretending there's not is just head-in-the-sand thinking.
  24. Cap'n Piranha
    And this is all we need to know about your ability to understand statistics. Separate the results from the player--get rid of the name, the draft position, and the fact he was the headliner in the Berrios trade; what about Austin Martin's stat line excites you? Would you be at all excited about a random player with a sub-.700 OPS in his second go-around at the same level? Of course not. So let go of what we hoped Austin Martin would be, and start to embrace the increasing reality that he very well might never be that.
  25. Cap'n Piranha
    No kidding it was projection--he was a teenager for half that time. The point isn't that we should be shocked his power emerged in 2021 when there was a power projection on him, and we didn't seem him at all in 2020. 4 homers is small--it's also only 2 fewer than Martin has in his entire professional career, so if someone with 4 homers isn't considered to have power, why would we consider someone with even fewer homeruns as likely to develop power? If Martin can't develop power, he will have to be Luis Arraez to have value in MLB--for his MiLB career (during all of which he was younger than Martin has been at any point in his MiLB career), Arraez was a .331 hitter with a .385 OBP. Martin is .262 average and .396 OBP. As mentioned before, a guy in MLB who doesn't hit for power, and can't really hit for average, is going to see his walks evaporate very quickly as pitchers stop trying to paint, and simply challenge him.
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