chpettit19

All the more reason not to plug one of these guys in for $5 mil. Plug Rodriguez in to LF, put Larnach in the DH spot and Keaschall is your other OF bat for 2025. Or Castro is. Or Martin is. Or Eeles is. Or Helman is. Or Jenkins is. Or any random guy of the same talent level of these 3 that you can pick up at the trade deadline for a PTBNL or cash is. Or any random waiver pickup is. The Twins have no money. If they maneuver things around to bring in somebody of this caliber what is the point? How much better is Dylan Carlson than Dashawn Keirsey? Carlson and his -1.2 bWAR and 61 OPS+ really the answer? The 47 OPS+ he had with StL for the first half of the year (59 games) really something we're convinced Keirsey can't do for league minimum so we need to spend millions on Carlson? De La Cruz is an awful defender. Absolutely terrible. And he's had back to back below average years with the bat after having been a league average bat in his first full year. He's Manuel Margot without the extreme splits so you don't even get the way above average bat against lefties. Austin Hays is interesting. If you're going to sign one of these guys he's the one you sign. He's the only one even worth discussing. You can probably expect league average production with the bat out of him. He's not a very good defender but has a big arm. He's probably Kepler's bat but not his glove. He'll at least be a positive player instead of a negative like those other 2, though. I just don't get why people want more Margot, Farmer, Gallo, Luplow, Garlick types, though. What is the point? These guys get the Twins no closer to playoff success than they are today. None. Not even a little. How sturdy do people want this floor? They've built the floor. It's sturdy enough. Can we start working on raising the ceiling?

No thanks to these 3 and any of the other 1 year vet deals with the goal of finding a league average bat who isn't a complete disaster in CF. Give me Emmanuel Rodriguez on the opening day roster with Keirsey in AAA ready to fill in as needed. Or if Emma "skipping" AAA is too much for you put Keirsey on the opening day roster and give Emma a month in AAA to make yourself feel better about things. But take the upside. Stop shooting for average and being shocked that the team maxes out at 84 wins and first round playoff exits. Stop seeking out players who need to be put in ideal situations to succeed and being shocked when those ideal situations aren't easily found on a regular basis over 162 games and are really hard to manufacture in the playoffs. Yes, Correa is expensive and most prospects (even the top ones) fail, but here's a news flash: you need Correa and top prospects to win. Emma may fall flat on his face. Just like Carlson did. Carlson is who he is. Why in the world would you sign a failed prospect who's best hope is that he's a solid defender and bad bat instead of just using your internal solid defender who still has the chance of being better than a bad bat? Even if Emma is just an average bat you've already improved upon the Carlson signing because he's every bit the defender Carlson is. For cheaper. Shoot, Keirsey can defend and be a bad bat for cheaper.

Pittsburgh, KC, San Fran, and Houston feel like places he could end up in. I don't think he's going to get a big deal so I think his options are going to be pretty open for a lot of playoff hopeful teams looking for a 2 win veteran who plays good defense and isn't embarrassing in the batter's box. There's 3 teams in the Central itself that could probably use his services for 2025. His willingness to move off right field may determine a lot of what his options are. Much like San Diego wouldn't move Tatis, Houston isn't moving Tucker. How open is Kepler to playing some CF or making a full-time switch to LF? Rumors here were that he wasn't willing to play any CF really. Is that true of everywhere he'd sign? Max will have options, but I'll be pretty surprised if he signs for more than 1 year at any kind of real money. I expect a contender to give him a 1-year deal to be a glove first, platoon corner outfielder and show he's healthy and has more gas in the tank.

Other teams do it. Michael Harris played 43 games at AA with 196 PAs before being called up at the end of May. It's all an experiment. Even at the major league level. He could stay in AAA til he's 30 and it'd be an experiment when he debuts. The Twins have been sitting on prospects until they're in their mid-20s forever. I don't get why people look at what they've done and think it's some fool proof way to get guys ready and are terrified to call them up too early. But this is why TD is fun. We can have differing opinions and have an educated back and forth. Enjoy your holiday and we'll find something new to discuss tomorrow!

Not what I said. I said they should hope they have the talent to do it. I actually specifically said they shouldn't force them to do it just to do it, but should hope they'd have the talent to be able to do it. I never claimed they should call anyone up just because they've been hyped, you're putting words in my mouth. I said I believe this specific prospect is best served by finishing his learning at the big league level. The Padres and Brewers weren't held back by having their young stars finish their development on the fly in April and May. Royce Lewis level performance is the exception, not the rule. Odds are that Emma will struggle early in his call-up even if they send him to AAA for half the season first. You prefer those struggles in April and May or August and September? He's had success relative to those flaws. He hit .298 in AA. That's more success than younger players that skipped AAA, as I've shown. He can put the bat on the ball. They all have things to learn and none are perfect when they debut. Trout had to go back down after his debut.

The Twins top 3 are not as good as any of the combinations of pitchers I listed. It's not about being better than those combinations, they are worse than them. So the comment I responded to about there being no top 3 better than the Twins when Ryan is healthy is wrong. Yelling at everyone on the thread doesn't change that. The Twins don't have the best top 3 in baseball. They aren't tied for the best top 3 in baseball. The Twins aren't in the discussion for the best top 3 in baseball. There are multiple teams with more than 3 starters who are better than any individual starter the Twins have. This is a ridiculous debate. As for all of us reading what you actually wrote, you actually wrote that when Ryan IS healthy nobody has a better top 3. Is is present tense, not past tense. So you didn't say that when Ryan went down nobody had a better top 3 you said today, right now, this very moment nobody has a better top 3. If what you meant was that WHEN Ryan went down the Twins had the best top 3 in baseball you should've said "when Ryan WAS healthy." But you didn't. So a bunch of us disagreed and some of us provided examples as to why you're wrong. So maybe next time you want to yell, you should actually read what you wrote. Because a whole bunch of time passed since Ryan was healthy and you have to count what Ober and Lopez's results were during that time. Are they all still top 2 dozen starters now?

I like the Twins pitching more than many. And I'd actually focus on the position player side this offseason if I were in charge. But this is a pretty outlandish claim. The Dodgers have Ohtani, Glasnow, Yamamoto, and Snell who are all better than anyone the Twins can throw. That's 4 guys better than anyone on the Twins staff. I'd easily take Strider, Sale, and Schwellenbach over Lopez, Ryan, and Ober. Phillies can run out Wheeler, Sanchez, Nola, and Suarez. The Mariners run out Gilbert, Castillo, Kirby, Miller, and Woo who are probably all better than anyone the Twins have. I may even take Skenes, Jones, and whoever the Pirates put at #3 over the Twins guys. The Twins have a very nice top 3. But to suggest they're the best top 3 in baseball is pretty wildly off base.

Or sub in this Blake Snell fella they just signed.

A 2025 debut puts him on a superstar trajectory. I'm with @stringer bell and hope to see him make relatively quick work of Wichita and be in St Paul in May. Absolute best-case scenario is the Michael Harris II route and he's in the majors in May, but the Corbin Carroll path of a September call-up followed by rookie of the year in 2026 wouldn't be too bad at all. Walker appears to be an A+ kid and that's a great starting point. I'm excited to see him in big league camp and get our first glimpses into what the future may hold. There are kids who fly through systems and reach the majors crazy quick all over the league. Why can't the Twins have one?

The union would file a grievance against that. I don't know how successful it'd be, but the union would throw an absolute fit if he doesn't debut in 2025 while being great in AAA. Especially since it's a level he reached, albeit briefly, the year before.

I didn't say he couldn't gain any value in AAA. But the 20 year olds I mentioned for the other teams could've gained value from 2-5 months in AAA, too. If he gets hurt again in the first 2-5 months this year is the argument next year that the 23 year old in his last option year can still gain value from 2-5 months in AAA so he should start there in 2026 because he only had 200 ABs in '25? I've openly stated he'd struggle in the first couple months. I've said he'd OPS in the .600s. I just think the lessons he needs to learn are best learned against big league pitching. He would play left field while Larnach DHs and he'd play CF while Buxton DHs and gets his rest days. That's the easy part. He displaces both Larnach and Wallner in the field easily and they don't have a set DH. Emma-Buxton-Wallner-Lewis-Correa-Castro-Whoever at C-Larnach. You can easily get him everyday ABs in the majors. Easily. But I'm not a big Lee believer so I understand that people are going to have different opinions here. Or maybe Castro is traded to save money and then it's Lee at 2B. But Martin, Keirsey, Helman, and Julien aren't taking ABs from Emma. He'll get AB's and repetition and guidance in the majors. Those are the off-speed pitches he needs to learn to hit. Him taking off-speed stuff in AAA isn't helping him learn to hit off-speed stuff in the majors. I don't think it's crazy to send him to AAA. It's what they're very likely going to do. It's just not what I'd do. And it's not what every team would do. It's what some teams would do. 22 isn't that young. I don't get the logic behind every prospect having to get hundreds of ABs at every level. And neither do plenty of MLB teams because they skip guys over AAA completely or have them only play a handful of games there all the time. Elite players don't need to do it. If you want Emma or Jenkins or Keaschall or any of these guys to be superstars you better cross your fingers they have enough talent to essentially jump AAA, too. Especially at age 22. They shouldn't force any of these guys to do it just to do it, but we better hope they have the talent to do it. I think Emma has the talent. My question with him is his ability to stay on the field.

The swing is definitely Mauer-like. And he uses that left center gap well already. He's shown a better ability to turn on the ball to this point, though. I don't know if he'll win batting titles, but when I watch him he certainly reminds me of Joe when he's up there.

Jackson Merrill OPS'd .782 in basically 50 more AA PAs in 2023 before debuting in the majors without ever playing a game at AAA and playing a position he never played in an official professional game. Jackson Chourio OPS'd .780 in many more AA PAs and played 6 games in AAA before debuting in the bigs. He had been playing the outfield already, though, so he did have that going for him over Merrill. Emmanuel Rodriguez OPS'd 1.100 in AA. His AAA OPS (in a, frankly, useless sample size) that people are worried about was 35ish points below what their AA OPSes were and they either completely skipped AAA or effectively skipped AAA like Emma would be. Merrill and Chourio weren't finished products. That's the point. They were close and then were given the chance to learn at the major league level while struggling for the first 2 months. They aren't all the same guy. Merrill had never played CF professionally until spring training last year. He debuted as a 20 year old having completely skipped AAA at a position he'd never played in a real professional game after having OPS'd 300+ points worse than Emma at AA. I'm not sure I can buy that Rodriguez has significantly more deficiencies than Jackson Merrill had on opening day 2024. Chourio was a top-10 prospect, Merrill at top-20, and Rodriguez a top-50. They're not the same, but he's in their league from a pedigree standpoint. Chourio was a top internation free agent who signed for 1.9 mil. Merill was a first round pick (27th overall). Rodriguez was a top international free agent who signed for 2.5 mil. I think his pedigree is pretty close to their range. I don't think it's the plan either. My concern is what he has to do to blow them away. How realistic are their expectations and what would it take to put him on the opening day roster? And then how quick is the trigger to send him down when he struggles? Does he get 2 months of 600 something OPS to figure it out or is he sent packing after 3 weeks? And my concerns fall down the line to the kid we're going to discuss tomorrow, too.

Or is he Matt Wallner? Wallner- AA- a24, 342 PAs, .299/.436/.597/1.033, 21 HRs, 107 SOs, 62 BBs Rodriguez- AA- a21, 167 PAs, .298/.479/.621/1.100, 8 HRs, 46 SOs, 42 BBs Julien- AA- a23, 508 PSa, .300/.441/.490/.931. 17 HRs, 125 SOs, 98 BBs Wallner isn't exactly a contact rate master (38.4% whiff rate is awful) while being a patient hitter (not at the level of Julien or Rodriguez, though). There's no margin for error with him either, but he's really good at making the most of his contact when he does make it. Emma seems to be built in the same mold. Lot's of boom or bust for him that likely comes down to contact quality. His slugging (in a smaller sample) beat even Wallner's in AA at a much younger age while K'ing at a lower rate. It will be very interesting to get batted ball data on him once he gets to the majors and see how he compares to Wallner and the other big guys in the league.

He won't get it right. He's going to fail. He's going to need to adjust and figure things it out. No matter how long you keep him in the minors. It's why I want him up from the start (assuming they think he's close). What does he have to learn in AAA? To recognize breaking stuff? He can already do that. To recognize strikes vs balls? He can already do that. To field his position? He can already do that. None of that is to say he's going to come up and be perfect or great or even very good. Jackson Chourio had a .608 OPS in April last year. Jackson Merrill's was .696. Chourio followed that up with a .542 in May and Merrill had a .656. In June they went .897 and .996. Merrill had a dip in July back to .690, but otherwise neither dropped below .800 again the rest of the season. Finished with overall OPS's of .791 (Chourio) and .826 which were good for OPS+ of 117 and 127. Chourio has 24 career AAA PAs while Jackson Merrill has 0. Chourio does have 585 AA PAs, but Merrill has 211. That's not too far off from Emma's 30 AAA PAs and 167 AA PAs. Emma has 1016 PAs in the Twins system. Chourio had 1211 in the minors and Merrill had 881. They're both younger than him. He's going to fail when he gets to the majors. And they should let him. If they think he can be great. If he's just another dude it's different. But if you think he's a cornerstone get him to the majors once he's out of things to learn in the minors and let him take his lumps in the bigs. Let him struggle at the bottom of the order. Maybe they think he has more to learn. I don't know. But if he's ready, or close to it, let him run in the bigs. Even when he falls down. Which he will. Royce did. They all do. Let him OPS .600 for a couple months if you think he can OPS .850+ from then on out. But I'm not a big Lee guy, and wasn't calling for him to start on the opening day roster last year. Didn't think he was ready. He's never performed like Emma has. He's been carried by his draft stock far more than his performance. So I'm not exactly the poster you were referring to here.

If they think he's close I'd like to see him on the opening day roster and let him do his learning on the job. Even when he struggles. Assuming those struggles aren't early-2024 Wallner level struggles. If you don't think he'll be completely overwhelmed, give him the Jackson Chourio/Merrill treatment. Let him struggle early. Give him 2 months of hitting at the bottom of the order and dialing in his approach with the hope that things start to click by June. Then by the second half of the season you have your middle of the order star blossoming and come playoff time you may have your "face of the franchise" type piece you're hoping for. The Twins are more than willing to let their over-the-hill veterans struggle for months on end with the hope that they can reach their ceiling of "mediocre at best" by the time August or September rolls around. I'd like to see them do it with their high ceiling youngsters instead. Emma is a good place to start. I don't think there's much for him to learn at AAA. The pitchers can challenge him better than the guys at A+ and AA, but not like the major leaguers. For him to truly lock in his approach and balance out the patience and aggression he's going to need he's going to have to do it against major league pitching. Let him start the process now. Recognizing off-speed isn't Julien's problem, hitting it is. Julien's approach is broken because he can't hit off-speed stuff so he doesn't swing at it. If Emma also can't hit off-speed stuff then his approach doesn't matter. If Emma can hit major league breaking stuff his approach will work itself out. His contact rate is what the question is. Not the approach. Can he make enough contact when he swings? If he does the rest will work itself out.

Teams aren't preparing for Emma any more than they prepared for Julien. The major league teams have the same amount of data on him as they had on Julien. The data they have is camera/computer generated. Julien wasn't "ignored." Emma isn't getting any extra attention. Kris Bryant was a pretty well known prospect and did just fine as a rookie. Jackson Merrill wasn't "ignored" and did quite well last year. Quite a few people had heard of Corbin Carroll before he won rookie of the year in 2023 and then he struggled in 2024. The league won't "be ready for" Emma any more than they're ready for any other rookie, including Julien. That isn't how it works. They don't have special info on him. They've paid the same amount of attention to him as everyone else. The umps won't treat him any differently than any other rookie. Nobody in the majors cares about Emma. He's just another kid trying to make a career for himself. They see dozens of others just like him every season.

Only IF help the Twins may need is somebody who can play SS. Not play SS "in a pinch" but flat out play SS. Right now it's Correa, Lee, and Castro. Castro will be gone after this year (if not before) and Lee is far from established despite our hopes he becomes a good player. Bringing in a guy who isn't a legitimate Correa backup doesn't make sense to me. Any utility IFer they bring in needs to be a legit SS.

He'd be #2 on my list. I think we see him early(ish) in the year. I think he's the player most people are expecting/hoping Lee can be. I didn't see him a ton this season so the glove is still the question for me. He made the plays I'd expect him to make the couple games I watched of him at 2B, and he looked way more natural than Julien there. I didn't see him at all in the OF, but if he can play that then put him there. I'd be ok with 1B, but all this talk of sliding our better athletes to 1B isn't something I like. At least not until we get more athletes. I think OF and/or 2B would be the best if he can field one of those spots. I don't trust Buxton to stay healthy (who does?) so that's an open spot in my mind, and I prefer Larnach at DH if we can put a better fielder in LF. And, as I said above, I think Keaschall is the star people are expecting Lee to be while Lee is more of "just" a regular so if Lewis is at 3B I'll take Luke at 2B and Lee as the utility guy who ends up playing a ton for Correa and Lewis (all 3 of those guys have real injury concerns at this point with Correa actually being my lowest concern behind Lewis' legs and Lee's back). I think the bat is just about ready. Get him into spring training to knock the rust off. Start him in St Paul. And get him to Minneapolis at the first opportunity if he's showing he's ready. Shoot, if he tears it up in spring hand him and opening day job and take a run at an extra draft pick for a rookie of the year award (I know he's on at least 1 of the top-100 lists so I guess it'd depend if he's on another for the draft pick).

Tonkin, Topa, and Stewart are the only questions I see. If they're going to go out and sign more Staumonts and Jacksons then just tender these guys and roll with them. If they really need to save the couple million and are going to roll with league minimum guys then don't tender them. The rest are getting deals. Castro may get traded, but he's worth 6ish mil to somebody so tendering him makes sense. Only way he isn't tendered is if they get scared off by their complete misjudgment of Farmer's worth last year and think they'd be doing the same thing with Castro. But that'd be a mistake. They wouldn't get anything massive for Castro, but they can get a flier for him and it's better to get a flier than to just non-tender.

If that's what you've taken from my posts I'm sorry. I'm someone who cares about being able to show some sort of proof for things. I can show proof of Ben's abilities. Slugging reigns supreme when it pertains to catching, or any other position? No, but you can't have a hitter in your major league lineup with an OPS of .500 or below. No matter what position they play. I know you read an article that called him "Cole's personal catcher" and you love that, but Ben Rortvedt caught 13 games for Gerrit Cole in his life. That's basically 1/3 of a season worth of starts. And they traded him the very next offseason. So, he clearly wasn't too important to Cole. Tampa is also a "pull the ball in the air" team. They aren't a slap hitting team. They pulled the ball 2% less than the Twins and more than the Yankees. You make claims that aren't based on anything other than you wanting to fit them into your narratives. It's why I use stats. Because it's actual evidence for my stance. Ben pulled the ball more in Tampa than he did in MN. It's not "remarkable" that a player can play the season after being hurt. He ended the 2023 season healthy. He had a healthy offseason. That doesn't explain him returning to his career norms in the second half. Them being his career norms explains him returning to his career norms. When the POBO of the team you're talking about goes on record and names the position the player you're talking about as the position that needs to be upgraded for next year it may be a sign that you shouldn't be defending that player so hard. “The catching position, the production we got last year was nowhere near where it needed to be to be a playoff-contributing position. We need to find a way to score more runs. I think there’s a few different ways we can go about doing that. But upgrading the catcher situation, without question.” Maybe I'm not the one who doesn't understand catching when these are the quotes coming from the team you think has hitting figured out so much better than the Twins and this is what they're saying about the position the guy you're defending plays.

How big is Raya actually? The Twins site has him listed as 6'1" 170. That's no monster of a man, but he's not Payton Eeles sized (no offense to Payton, but he's not very tall). I'd just like to hear the explanation for why he's been so limited in his pitches and innings. Is it his size? Mechanics? Something in his medical exams? Something in their trackman readings? Why has he been managed this way? He's in AAA now. It's time. Either you're going to let the young man throw or you're not. If you're not then transition him to a multi-inning pen role and get him to the bigs as soon as he's ready if he's one of your best arms. If they come out of the gate treating him differently than the rest of the AAA arms I'm going to be concerned. I don't doubt they had a reason they felt was convincing to manage the way they have. But he's on the doorstep. It's time to get him ready to be a real MLB starter. That bar isn't that high. 6 innings and 90 pitches. Treat him like the rest of the AAA arms. Then let's get those BB numbers under control and he could be an exciting young piece!

How much do they need the pennies? How much do they need the roster spots? I don't have a good feel for their plans this offseason so I don't have a good guess on what they'll do or what I'd do in their place based on what their plans are big picture. Are they going to make a whole bunch of trades and reshape the roster around Buxton, Correa, Lewis, Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Duran, and Jax? Are they going to basically run it back? I don't know. If they're basically running it back then tender them all because the extra money saved would just go into the Pohlads pockets or be spent on clones of these guys anyways and I don't care for either of those situations. If they're going to make a bunch of changes then the tender/don't tender decision comes down to whether or not you think they can be included in any trades. Tender if you think you can trade them. Don't if you don't.

Ben hit incredibly well in the first half before returning to career norms. It could have been his knees but the more straight forward answer is that that's who he is as a hitter considering it's who he's been his entire professional career. He's simply not a very good hitter. He had a 41 OPS+ his first season with the Twins and a 28 OPS+ in his stint with the Yankees. The outlier for Rortvedt was the first half last year, not the second. If he can OPS .620ish like he did last year he's going to have a nice long career as a defensive specialist behind the plate. If he goes back to his major league norm of OPSing 460-500 he won't have a major league career. The chances of him hitting anywhere near what he did early in the year last year are very, very small. He had 2 insanely hot months and the rest were very bad. I know you like Ben. I'd like having him back in St Paul playing that Butera role of 3rd catcher who comes up when one of the 2 primary catchers gets hurt. But he's not a good choice for a primary catcher on a contending MLB team. The Rays are going to hope they can get him to slap the ball around some so he can OPS .600 and be a useful part of their team, but they are absolutely looking to upgrade on him. Vazquez is likely an upgrade on him. It'd be interesting if the Twins can find a prospect package that'd interest the Rays in a swap of the Vazquez and Diaz contracts.

Crochet making it clear he wouldn't pitch in the postseason without a contract extension, thus making it far harder to trade him turned me off to any idea of trading for him (very unlikely the Twins would've been the ones to do it anyways). I get the arm health concerns with moving from the pen to the rotation, but choosing to stick on an historically awful team instead of getting moved to a playoff team isn't a good look to me and I'd be very nervous about paying him. He wanted an extension last year and I'm not sure why you wouldn't think he'd want one after a trade now. Twins aren't trading for Crochet.