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chpettit19

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Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    Roughly 75% of pitchers in the majors are right handed. You'd expect a hitter to have roughly 3/4 of his PAs against righties. According to those PA numbers, 74.57% of his PAs came against righties. Those are not at all dramatic platooning numbers, those are numbers you'd expect from playing everyday since 75% of pitchers in the majors are right handed. By comparison, Matt Wallner has faced 81.38% righties. Larnach 82.89% righties. Julien 88.58%. Those are dramatic platoon numbers.
  2. chpettit19
    To add to the Miranda thought...in his rookie year where he put up a very similar overall OPS+ he had a .721 OPS against righties but an .821 OPS against lefties. Did he forget how to hit lefties in 2 years? Or, as you ask, are they just 2 years with small samples that went different directions? Get good hitters and let them hit!
  3. chpettit19
    @USAFChief Does this change your opinion about the front office, and Falvey specifically, having any input on lineups or being on the same page as Rocco when it comes to how he manages the team? Great post, IndianaTwin. The SABR convention is a fun event if you're into that kind of thing. Get some pretty cool inside looks at things and how those in the industry view things and do things. Glad you enjoyed your experience!
  4. chpettit19
    Falvey realizes he's the one who provides the personnel, right? It's all well and good to say it's all on Rocco how he uses the players in game, but when you hand him Margot, Farmer, Garlick, Luplow, and Santana who all have massive platoon splits favoring facing lefties what do you think Rocco (or any manager) is going to do with them? I hope nobody actually believes Falvey has a direct line to the dugout to dictate in game moves or is forcing lineup decisions, but talking with Rocco about player usage in general is a big thing. That entire statement is a bunch of nothing. He puts it on Rocco while saying it's about personnel that he acquires and also saying they talk about the strategies in general. They're all on the same page and this is how they all want the team to be run and managed. You don't acquire clear platoon bats and watch your manager use them the way they should clearly be used and then defend your manager when your fanbase is calling for his head if you don't think this is the right way to do things. The FO and manager are all on the same page. As for the platooning itself, I think anyone who's on these threads regularly knows my stance. I hate it. Think it's the worst strategy they deploy. Worst part of their team building. Worst part of Rocco's in game strategy. Am legitimately concerned they will attempt to turn Rodriguez and Jenkins into platoon bats no matter how they perform just like they've done with Wallner despite his dominance of lefthanded pitching in the upper minors. Falvey may believe it's about personnel and that not every lefty has to be platooned, but he's never given Rocco a chance to test that theory unless injuries have forced it and I don't think he ever will/would over an offseason unless the budget forces it. I think their belief in platooning is a core belief in a way to win on the margins. I think they think they can matchup their way to better offensive numbers and I think it's actually done the opposite. Over and over and over because they seem to ignore the fact that injuries happen every year. To every team. And the other team gets to make pitching changes more than once a game. I hate it. Now I'm cranky. Stop the platooning madness! Free Wallner!
  5. chpettit19
    Absolutely not. I'm not trading Duran for a 27 year old with 14 MLB PAs and a 25 year old who's not better than any of the younger arms they already have stacked up at MLB and AAA. "Hey, we have to salary dump these 2 veteran contracts so we'll just trade our closer to fill their spots with a 27 year old catching "prospect" who was never really even a top-30 system guy and a 25 year old pitching prospect who's likely on his way to the pen instead of the rotation where he'd be fighting it out with the younger, better prospects we already have there." No thanks. I'm open to trading Duran, but it better be for something significantly better than this. I'd guess Duran is viewed as the next step down from 2022 Josh Hader, but the Padres got 1.5 years of control of Hader compared to 3 years of Duran control a team would be getting in a trade right now. The Brewers got an active MLB closer in Taylor Rogers, Dinelson Lamet, a top-10 system prospect in Robert Gasser, and a top-30 system guy in Esteury Ruiz (became the #9 prospect for the Brewers on MLB at the time of the trade) for 1.5 years of Hader but the Twins should trade 3 years of Duran for a non-prospect catcher and a borderline top-30 pitcher? No freaking way.
  6. chpettit19
    Christian Vazquez in his first year with the Twins had a catcher ERA of 4.09 and a RA9 of 4.28. In his second year he had an ERA of 4.34 and an RA9 of 4.63. In those 2 years while splitting catching duties essentially 50/50 Ryan Jeffers had ERAs of 3.61 and 4.17 with RA9s of 3.86 and 4.54. For all this talk of Vazquez's defense being so superior and it being so vital that they keep him around because of it and Jeffers being so bad defensively and his bat being the only useful thing about him, the same group of pitchers pitched to better ERAs and RA9s both seasons with him behind the plate than Vazquez. So the pitchers put up better stats while Jeffers also hit significantly better than Vazquez. What do people see in Vazquez that can't be replaced? I don't get it. His defense isn't that good. He's not saving them runs. He plays and people argue for him to stay because of his name and what he represents, not what he's actually done on the field for the Twins. Christian Vazquez isn't helping the Twins pitching staff while he's on the field. If he's helping them while he's on the bench and Jeffers is the one actually catching, there's a much better role for him than $10 million can't hit, can't throw, can't reduce runs catcher, it's called "coach." I get the argument that catcher defense matters and we want someone who can defend the position well, but arguing that Vazquez is that guy makes no sense. He brings nothing to this team and is actively hurting it. He needs to go.
  7. chpettit19
    Oh, I totally agree. Had a comment earlier in the thread about the future of catching not including framing and thats what lead to the discussion of framing. But how catchers receive, or "frame," a pitcher has been a core skill of catching defense for a long time because the human eye/brain can in fact be tricked by such things. It's not that catchers fool umps constantly, but if you can steal a strike or 2 a game vs losing your pitcher a strike or 2 a game it's a big deal. Robot umps will remove the need for the skill all together, but the other poster's comment that it's "junk science" is something people have been saying for a while. Well every major league team has been wasting decades on catchers who receive well because of that "junk sceince" instead of getting catchers who hit well and block pitches instead. How foolish of the entire baseball industry for generations.
  8. chpettit19
    Well I'll email all the teams and tell them to quit teaching it. They'll be happy to know. And Jeffers will be very happy to know he doesn't have to worry about it so can focus on blocking balls alone since how he receives doesn't matter. Thanks for clearing this up.
  9. chpettit19
    They both have the same 1.9 pop time and have for years. They have the same arm and the running struggles the Twins have are on the pitchers.
  10. chpettit19
    Oh, I wish they would make their own, but that's not an option for 2025. They don't seem to trust the coffee they have in the pantry. So, it's either the 5 dollar coffee they have or getting rid of that cup and getting one from a different store. They've been bad at developing catching. To be fair, most teams are. There's a reason the same handful of guys get passed around and always have contracts waiting for them. Like James McCann. I'm actually quite interested to see if there's any change in what the catching in the league looks like after the robo umps get introduced to the majors. The smart teams have been tracking how things are going in the minors and have figured out what they need defensively from catchers moving forward. Framing won't be a thing anymore so the Christian Vazquez's of the world will take a hit. But you still need to call a good game and block pitches and throw out runners. Maybe the Twins just mistimed things and thought the change was going to be here already and that's why they don't have any defensive catchers ready? The Sam Basallo style catching prospect may become the new prototype soon, though. And then we'll be ready! Oh wait, they don't have any offensive catchers ready either. Never mind. Yes, they need to step up their catcher development. But I hope they do it in a way that fits with the robo ump era.
  11. chpettit19
    Teams passing on him in the Rule 5 a year ago does not mean there wouldn't have been any other claims a year after he lead AAA in OPS. Leading AAA in OPS doesn't mean there would've been claims, but it would have been a risk.
  12. chpettit19
    Vazquez had -0.3 bWAR and a 64 OPS+ in his first year with the Twins followed by -0.2 bWAR and a 60 OPS+ in his 2nd year. 0.9 fWAR and 65 wRC+ and 0.8 fWAR and 60 wRC+ if you're a Fangraphs person. McCann the last 2 years had 0.5 bWAR and 79 OPS+ and 0.8 bWAR and 94 OPS+. 0.3 fWAR and 77 wRC+ and 0.2 fWAR and 89 wRC+. Those numbers are not almost identical. If you're a big believer in defense first/only behind the plate then you want Vazquez, but if you care about offense at all then McCann is very clearly the significantly better player. McCann's .646 and .667 OPS numbers the last 2 years may not be anything super impressive on the surface, but Vazquez failing to OPS .600 (.598 and .575) in either of his 2 years with the Twins is another level of offensive futility.
  13. chpettit19
    I'd take McCann over Vazquez if they could get somebody to eat a bunch of that 10 mil. Elias Diaz is the catcher I think they could get signed for cheap and replace Vazquez's defense while bringing some improved offense. I'm not sure why a team would trade for Vazquez instead of just signing one of these guys themselves unless the Twins add in a prospect sweetener, but if his name and reputation carry as much weight with some front office out there as it seems to in certain circles around Twins Daily then maybe they can convince somebody to take him and then sign one of these guys.
  14. chpettit19
    And the reason the seeding won't change is because they want the conference championship games to matter so they can keep selling those to the networks to continue to make crazy money off them in order for those teams to get those byes. The vast majority of the games during the 4-team playoff setup were blowouts, too. There's going to be very few upsets and a whole lot of blowouts. But people will keep watching and the networks will keep paying. It's shocking to me that it took this long to get the playoffs in college football with the money they're making off this stuff. With the greed involved in everything they do I can't believe this hasn't been in place for decades.
  15. chpettit19
    2019 was a long time ago in the sports world. 2020 was also a long time ago, and there were no fans allowed at the 60 games played that year. Many fans also found new hobbies to do during the summer months that year. Since then, the Twins have won 1 division title in an historically bad division where they were the only team to finish above .500. In the other seasons since that no-fan, 60 game season of 2020 they finished in last place with 73 wins, 3rd place with 78 wins after collapsing down the stretch, won the division where no other team had more than 78 wins, then finished 4th while beating only the team who set the all-time single season loss record as they again collapsed horrendously down the stretch. And during those years the president of the organization blamed the fans publicly for not showing up, the team's games were cut from numerous TV providers while their cable provider got into contract disputes with all of their partners, they had their games go black for half their TV customers in the 2024 season after having failed to come through on their promise to end blackouts for the 2024 season and gone back to their cable provider they were aware was in bankruptcy proceedings, had their owner say they had to cut payroll to "right-size" their business after having won their first playoff game in nearly 2 decades. The Twins are out of sight, out of mind for almost every casual sports fan I know. That's obviously a small sample size in the grand scheme of things, but their performance on the field since 2020 and their actions following the 2023 season has absolutely put them out of sight and mind with many. Either they can keep doing what Dave St Pete loves to do and blame the fans for not showing up or they can change how they act and rebuild their relationship with fans and get butts back in seats. The fans don't owe the Twins anything. It's on the Twins to sell their product. Do better. Change your strategy. Improve your product. Earn your fans back. 1 playoff series win in 20 years followed by an immediate announcement of a $30 million payroll cut shouldn't have you expecting wonderful future ticket sales numbers. This is on the Twins, not the fans.
  16. chpettit19
    So, star production is hard to sustain? The wRC+ for these guys were 155, 142, and 155. yeah, regression is definitely a concern. Especially when you consider Buxton lead them in games played at 102. I don't think anyone's expectation should be 150+ games of 150+ wRC+ out of any of these guys. That'd certainly be nice, but it shouldn't be the expectation. Wallner and Correa need to increase their games played (Correa being there to improve the team defense helps as well), Lewis needs to improve his games played and performance, Jeffers and Miranda need to improve their consistency, Larnach needs to repeat his performance, and everybody else needs to step up. But putting up the numbers these guys did is really, really hard. Like they'd be top 15 hitters in baseball if they did it over a full season hard. If you're expecting the Twins to have 3 top 15 hitters your expectations are probably too high. As is, they were top 20 hitters amongst players with at least 200 PAs last year. Correa and Wallner tied for 10th and Buxton was 18th. It shouldn't surprise anyone to hear no other team had 3 players in the top 20. The Dodgers (Ohtani and Betts), Yankees (Judge and Soto), Astros (Tucker and Alvarez), and Diamondbacks (Pederson and Marte) had 2 players each in the top 20, but nobody else had 3. These guys put up ridiculous numbers and regression should be expected. While regression should be expected we should also take time to appreciate how good these guys are. It's been a lot of doom and gloom around here as if this team has no talent. They weren't the White Sox last year. I get that the collapse was absolutely horrendous, but they were one of the best teams in baseball for most of the season. And there is very real talent on this team.
  17. chpettit19
    The Twins don't do opening day bench players. The Twins only do opening day role players. If Mickey Gasper is on the opening day roster it's because the Twins have plans to play Mickey Gasper. It's possible they just believe in his International League leading bat (for players with at least 200 PAs). That'd be interesting, and I'd wonder if it puts Payton Eeles in play for an opening day, or early season, job if he dominates in spring, as he was 18th on that list of International League leading hitters (Wallner was 30th for those who are curious). I'd guess the far more likely answer is he's the AAAA roster depth he appeared to be at the time of the trade. He started the year in AA for his 3rd (plus a 10 game cup of coffee in a 4th year) go round at the level. He did well there again and then lit AAA on fire. But he was 28. He should succeed in his 4th look at AA and 2nd look at AAA in his late 20s. He walks and doesn't strike out. That certainly gives him a fighting chance to be a utility type guy, and if he can actually catch that profile alone is plenty enough. But being that he's going to be 29 and he's never been given the slightest shot at being a backup catcher I find it hard to believe that he can actually catch. I have no idea, but guys who can put the bat on the ball, take a walk, and not strike out while catching tend to get shots before they're 28/29. While 1B/2B guys with no power have to hit like Luis Arraez to get a shot. And Mickey Gasper is not Luis Arraez.
  18. chpettit19
    Oh, I have no doubt ownership sees a path to more money. That's the safe answer to why teams decide to do any non-baseball item in question. I just don't think this (or The Battery) is anything new. And I don't think it automatically makes it a smart decision for the league. It may be good for the league, but it very well be yet another shortsighted decision that leads to an influx in cash while hurting their longterm success as they hurt their overall fanbase. We'll see. I'm nowhere near smart enough to make a strong guess. Outside of John Fisher seeing a path to more money with the move.
  19. chpettit19
    Target Field has hotels, bars, restaurants, retail, and parking around it. Atlanta has "The Battery." Toronto has a hotel in center field. The Cubs have Wrigleyville. Most MLB owners try to buy up property around their stadiums and make money off the stadium being there. I don't think the As are doing anything almost every other team hasn't done or tried to do. The difference really is the location. Vegas hotels, bars, restaurants, casinos, and retail are different than Minneapolis hotels, bars, restaurants, and retail. The ability of the locale to drive traffic to the area for those things that you can try to poach a few ticket buyers out of is the question. Tampa is constantly ripped for their stadium being in such a bad location where there's nothing around it. The Brewers have a casino right down the street, but like having their large parking lots around the stadium to allow for tailgating. I don't think this stadium outdates Target Field at all. I think Minneapolis not being as popular of a downtown as it used to be already did that damage to Target Field. Will the Fishers own those hotels, bars, restaurants, casinos, retail, and parking? And will they choose to invest the revenue from those businesses into their baseball team? Some owners do, some don't. Atlanta counts revenue from The Battery as baseball revenue and puts it into the team. Not every team does. If the Fishers don't own the revenue streams around the stadium or choose not to invest their revenue in the team that stadium may be just as empty as the Coliseum was after the novelty wears off. Will be interesting to watch.
  20. chpettit19
    With pinpoint control, no doubt. People are always saying how guys coming off TJ are always on top of their control and he's always been known for his Maddux like qualities.
  21. chpettit19
    Every team in baseball passed on Moran in the Rule 5 but suddenly people here think he's some massive loss? Not 1 single team in all of baseball thought he'd be able to stay on their 26-man all season. Not 1. I get it. This is a super boring trade and has been a super boring offseason. But this idea that Moran is some massive loss or even a legitimate major leaguer isn't shared by a single front office in all of major league baseball. None of them trust him, including Boston, or they would've picked him weeks ago and not have given anything up in return. It's a nothing trade of minor leaguers that every team does every offseason. Of course we'd all like to see some major league moves, but let's not make this more than it is. AAAA player for AAAA player.
  22. chpettit19
    I trust Buehler to stay healthy more than Luzardo. I like the deal for Boston. I don't expect another 200 inning year out of him, but I think it's a decent enough bet that he can make 30ish starts and get you 170ish innings.
  23. chpettit19
    I'd guess Wallner is there against righties. Lefties is a bit harder to predict at this point as I'm not sure their lineup is quite set against them yet. Maybe Lewis against lefties? But Wallner will get the vast majority of 4-hole ABs this year.
  24. chpettit19
    I'm not sure why 1B seems to be the place we're so focused on recently. Maybe it's just the articles I'm seeing, but it's felt like 1B is seen as "the hole" in the lineup. Miranda is maybe a quarter step below Wade if you're not going to platoon Wade, but the Twins would platoon Wade so then it's a push at best since you'd require another roster spot for this and you'd be out of left-handed roster spots with Larnach, Wallner, and Wade taking them up. Miranda is a better option than Polanco. But why are we only focused on 1B options? Why aren't we just looking at whatever crappy, low-cost bats we can bring in? The Twins, by my count, have 2 lineup holes. 1B would be a possibility, but it could also be DH, LF, 2B, or 3B depending on how you want to move people around. And who you believe in as far as guys like Lee and Julien, I suppose. I'd put Emma in LF with Larnach at DH so that'd leave me with 1 lineup spot, but I understand I'm in the minority there so am saying there's 2 lineup holes. Others believe Julien will bounce back so they would put him at 2B or DH and only see 1 lineup hole. Many possible combinations, but 2 possible lineup holes as Buxton, Wallner, Lewis, Correa, Miranda, Larnach and the catchers have 7 spots locked up I'd think. Castro is the wildcard and I've left him out because I'm not sure if he's one of the payroll trades or not. But if he's here he fills one of the lineup spots as well. I don't see any realistic 1B options that I'd take over Miranda. They aren't signing Alonso, they'd platoon Wade, and the rest are no better than Miranda. I don't get why we're focused on these lesser options at 1B when that's not where the hole has to be. That's not to say there's good, realistic options at any of the other spots (Kim for SS/2B is the option I'd like to go after if I could clear to payroll space) but I'm not sure why we're trying to talk ourselves into these specific crappy options when there are options to move the hole to just about anywhere we want and fill it with a different crappy option.
  25. chpettit19
    I'm not telling you not to have a Bregman comp. That's just not mine. He's had 3 straight 4+ bWAR seasons on top of those 2 8 and 9 WAR seasons. And '18 wasn't a juiced ball year. Kepler (your example) hit 20 bombs in '18. I don't see Lee having 3 4+ WAR season let alone multiple 8+ WAR seasons. That's beyond a "good player" or big league regular in my book. That's a star. Like fangraphs says. 5 seasons of all star level play is beyond having a career year in my book. I'd be over the moon if Lee turns into Bregman.
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