chpettit19

I'd be surprised if they traded Polanco, but I think your timeline makes more sense than trading any of these guys in the middle of a pennant chase. I'd like them to take a shot at signing those pre-arb guys to 7 year deals and pairing that with a Correa 7 year deal. I don't think there's much of a chance they do that as they really value their flexibility (and I don't expect them to extend Correa), but if they could have their whole core locked up for 7 years of cost certainty they'd be in a pretty good spot. Just a lot of pressure on those young guys to turn into who they expect/hope they are. But, generally speaking, I think the offseason is when we see them make bigger decisions on players. The trade deadline is more likely to be small deals for relief pitchers.

This post is about veteran players the Twins could trade while improving their pitching depth for this season. Why would what the Twins could get back not be the focus? This post wasn't about whether or not the Twins would be willing to trade these players, or any players, but was about veterans at "positions of strength" that could be dealt for "pitching depth." Responding that they couldn't get good pitching depth back for these players is focusing on what the post was about. The author presented the topic as improving a contending Twins 2022 team by trading veterans for veterans. Your, or my, opinion on where they may go is of no factor on the topic presented by the author. He didn't say the Twins may trade veterans if they fall back and don't think they can contend, he said "As the calendar gets closer to July, Minnesota's roster looks like it will need more pitching depth to stay at the top of the AL Central." My contention is that trading anyone on this list at the deadline wouldn't improve the 2022 team overall, or, in a couple of the cases, the Twins pitching depth in any meaningful way, and laid out why I thought that.

Urshela: Maybe a contender throws the Twins a random middle reliever for him? That doesn't help the 2022 Twins as their entire pen is made up of random middle relievers already. Kepler: Maybe San Diego would want to get out from under some money and would be willing to give up Snell or Clevinger? Neither of those guys moves the pitching needle enough to make up for Kepler's defense alone. Sano: He's not worth anything. Maybe a 13th man on a pitching staff? Again, doesn't help the Twins in 2022. Correa: There's no feasible way trading Correa helps the 2022 team. There's no contender that would trade major league pitching for Correa. I don't even understand how his name gets on a list that's supposedly supposed to be trading from positions of strength (who's the other player that makes SS a strength for the 2022 Twins?) to add pitching depth (what pitcher that would be equal to Correa's value is a contender trading away?). He makes no sense on this list at all. Really the whole list is pretty shaky (to be kind). Contenders generally don't trade away pitching. No matter what people may think about a team's pitching depth, contenders don't trade good pitching. That's what this article is supposedly suggesting the Twins would be looking to get in return. If you're going to get a pitcher that improves the staff for 2022 you have to go to non-contenders and they want prospects, not these guys.

Their base running is so bad. Some of it is a general lack of speed, but much of it is just really bad base running. It's costing them runs for sure. I'm not a proponent of "get 'em over," (only time I'm trading an out for moving a base runner is if it's scoring the runner) but they are very bad at "get 'em in" with a guy on 3rd and less than 2 outs. At least it feels that way. I haven't looked up any stats. But the strikeouts with a guy on 3rd and 1 out drive me nuts so it certainly feels like they fail in those situations a lot. They really need Kirilloff to step up while Polanco gets healthy and Correa, Arraez, and Buxton stay healthy. They need to be able to plug those 5 in everyday and let them do their thing (even against lefty starters, IMO). Put those 5 at the top everyday and just mess with the back 4 in the order based on matchups. At least that's what I'd do.

Those stats are the combined stats of the hitters in those lineup positions for all games. Arraez has spent the majority of his time in the 2 hole so that's why I credited him there.

Kirilloff is not starting tonight, fyi. And MLB just announced pitching staffs have to be down to 13 by Monday so that should mean Kirilloff is staying. Let's hope at least!

This is what I've been saying the last couple years. Kepler and Sano get so much heat because they aren't top 5 hitters, but have been forced to hit in the top 5 spots for years. If they were in the 7-9 holes people wouldn't be so upset. I think a top 5 of Buxton, Arraez, Correa, Polanco, and Kirilloff is a great start. And I think Larnach and Miranda have the potential to fill that 6 hole. Kepler, Celestino, Sanchez, Jeffers, Urshela, Garlick, Gordon types are fine in that bottom 3rd, but they need those last couple bats to become the offense they should be.

OBP by order position: 1st: .336 2nd: .384 (Luis Arraez is good at what he does) 3rd: .374 4th: .335 5th: .277 6th: .263 7th: .289 8th: .328 9th: .319 The 8 and 9 hole hitters are actually doing ok at getting on base. .319 would be good for 10th in baseball in terms of team OBP (tied with Boston and San Diego). .328 is what the Dodgers have as the number 2 team in baseball. HRs by order position: 1st: 16 2nd: 10 3rd: 14 4th: 3 5th: 8 6th: 10 7th: 5 8th: 6 9th: 2 Buxton has 18 HRs, so if he was hitting in the 3 hole all year he'd only be adding 4 homeruns to the total. It'd give a little boost, but certainly nothing drastic. The 3 hole has also had 15 fewer PAs this year than the leadoff spot. 4 hole has 23 fewer. So there really isn't a great deal of improvement that would be gained by dropping him. The 4 hole having the lowest slugging percentage on the team is certainly not ideal, though.

Palacios will go back to St Paul to make room for Correa. Contreras will go back to St Paul and then the question is if they go 14 man staff or 13. If it's 14 they will replace him with a pen arm. If it's 13 I'd think they'd replace him with Kirilloff. If it were me making the decisions I'd bring up Kirilloff for Garlick, Miranda, or Gordon. Probably Miranda so he can get everyday ABs in St Paul. He looks like he's figuring things out at the ML level, but he's still a part time player so I'd put him in St Paul to get everyday ABs. Wouldn't mind Garlick either, but he'd be my second choice. He's not part of the future so I'm not worried about him getting ABs to develop, and he can clearly hit lefties. Gordon has no options left so he'd be my last choice since he does provide flexibility and some speed which I think is helpful for this team. But if Kirilloff is back to being Kirilloff (and looks like he may be) I get him back in Minneapolis as I think he's one of the top 6 or so bats in the org. Moving Sanchez to a more typical starting C role instead of DHing so much would get Jeffers bat out of the lineup and Kirilloff's in. There's a lot of names on the roster who feel like they're really good, but the offense has been bad more than it's been good this year so I don't think it's hard to find ABs for Kirilloff if he's back to being himself.

Yes, his bias is towards pulling pitchers before they see a good lineup a 3rd time through. That is the organizational philosophy and will not change with a new manager. 3rd time through the order is when the decisions start being made. It's not a set in stone, nobody ever sees a lineup 3 times situation. Each lineup is created different and each pitcher matches up differently against those lineups. The FO and manager gather data on the lineups and pitchers and come up with a general plan before the game starts. Then the manager decides exactly when to pull the plug in the game. There are 100% times when Rocco does something the FO would've done different, but overall they have a plan and Rocco follows it while deciding on precise moves in game based on the parameters set by the FO. There is nothing to debate here. If the FO didn't like how Rocco was doing things they'd fire him. Since they've done nothing but praise him for 3+ years and haven't fired him the only logical conclusion is that he manages the games the way the FO wants him to manage the games.

Exit velos given up by Smeltzer yesterday: 112.3 MPH (Springer HR), 100.4 Kirk GDP, 104.6 (Chapman groundout), 97 (Gurriel groundout), 106.1 (Bichette lineout), 100.4 (Vlad single), 108.9 (Kirk HR). He gave up an average exit velo of 93.3 yesterday in 4 innings. He faced 16 batters and gave up exit velos of 97 or higher to 7 of them. That's 44% of batters he'd faced that hit the ball incredibly hard. He also walked 2 guys. So 56% of guys he faced he walked or they tattooed the ball. I'd argue he wasn't "doing fine," and he was struggling, but getting lucky that they were hitting the ball at guys. Yes, they go into every game with a plan. Every team does. You guys seem to think they're just winging it and it's just up to Rocco and his "feel for the game" to make decisions. That's not accurate. Every major league organization has a plan going into every game and a big picture plan for managing their staff as a whole. Now there's some tweaks and differences in all of them, and they base them on different things, but they all have them. It's why many of us say managers aren't all that important in winning/losing games. A game here or there maybe, but nothing like some suggest. No FO is going to hire a manager who manages in a way they don't like or sees strategy drastically differently. So, again, firing Rocco wouldn't lead to drastically different pen management. At all.

They wouldn't hire a manager who didn't think this way is the right way to do things. This is the way the FO wants a staff run. It's weird that you point out that Rocco has let people go deeper yet your most often used complaint on these threads is that Rocco never lets starters go deeper. The FO and Rocco meet daily. Every single day they talk about the strategy for that day and the games coming up. Rocco is the extension of the FO in the dugout. They hired him because he has the same thoughts on baseball strategy as them. They wouldn't go out and hire someone who thinks things should be done differently. They have a general range that they start looking to take a starter out in. It's then up to Rocco to make a decision on the exact moment based on the criteria range they've developed as an organization. The criteria includes the data points I already presented, plus whether or not they have an off day coming up, how the pitcher has been performing against the guys coming up, their desire to start guys in clean innings as often as possible, bullpen usage on previous dates, AAA pitcher usage from previous days, previous performance of certain pitchers vs certain hitters, the available bench players for the other team, and more that you'd never even think of. These things are all used in big picture pregame discussions before the general outline is given to the starter and pen arms so everybody knows the plan for the day. The pen arms are given a range of hitters that they'll be targeted for use against. The starter is given a general idea of how long their leash is that day. Then it's on Rocco during the game to make decisions on exactly when those changes happen based on a crazy number of factors.

No, I said you wouldn't be happy with the next manager either because this is the way the FO wants things run. And then I explained that there's a whole bunch of stats and data that are used in game to make decisions based on a set of parameters that the FO has put in place.

So your belief is that the FO doesn't believe in pulling starters as quickly as Rocco does (you're on these threads after almost every game complaining about this, so don't try to sell this as a 1 off thing), but they've let him do it for 3+ years? That's the stance you want to take, but you're concerned about my sourcing? At any job you've ever had were you allowed to go for 3+ years doing things in a way that your bosses disliked and they didn't fire you or make you change? Seriously, it's time to step back and take a look at the claim you're making. Yes, he's gone deeper when he was on, so has Ryan, it's almost like they change based on game situations and a whole bunch of factors you don't even know about to make different decisions based on certain overarching principles that are set by the FO as organizational norms. Did you know they measure their pitcher's release point on every pitch they throw in real time? Along with spin rate, velo, spin axis, and extension. Amongst other proprietary blends of stats along those lines that you'll literally never know about.

The front office is Rocco's boss and he's been running things this way for 3 years and they haven't fired him or forced him to change. That's a pretty good place to start.

You wouldn't be impressed with a new manager's usage of pitchers either. This is the organization's strategy, not just Rocco's. If they fire Rocco they'd bring in another guy who also won't let his starters go through the lineup a 3rd time. It's not Rocco's plans, it's the FO. At least complain about the right stuff.

If Kirilloff hits his peak he pushes Arraez, Miranda, Gordon, and Celestino all off their spots (other than Celestino and Gordon playing CF). The real question is if his body will ever allow him to hit that peak. Lewis, Larnach, and Kirilloff all hitting their peaks would make for one heck of a fun team to watch for the next 6 years. Buxton locked up already, and Arraez and Polanco in for many of those years as well. That could be a real fun top 6 with Kepler around for a couple more years as well, so fun top 7. Larnach looks so much more comfortable at the plate now. If he can continue to establish himself as an everyday bat that can play a solid corner outfield it gives the Twins some nice flexibility over the next couple months to try to make some moves to improve other parts of the roster. LF was the biggest ? in my mind (for positions players, obviously pitching was #1 overall) coming into the season and if he can establish himself as the everyday guy that'd be huge. A top 4 of Larnach-Buxton-Kepler with Celestino as the 4th would be huge. Hoping to see Larnach and Celestino continue to establish themselves as solid, or better, major league players.

Hard to argue with that. He has not been good at hitting baseballs for a while now.

The problem with Buxton's specific injury is that it's not just a "sit and rest and it'll heal" injury. Putting him on the IL means he's out for 6-8 weeks. The injury is healing through limited playing time and treatment. If you're ready to miss him for 2 months ok, but just be aware that's the timeline you're looking at.

So the former player who "has stayed close to the game" is right, but the current, active players on the Twins roster that you're complaining about not playing enough who have actively said they're on board with the playing time situation are wrong? And my point is lost? Come on. The players themselves aren't complaining. Again, is the picture in your head that the players are upset with playing time and how they're being used, but Rocco is simply ignoring them? Is that what you think is happening? Buxton and Correa are going into Rocco's office throwing a fit and Rocco tells them to shut up and sit down? Then Correa turns around and tells the press that anyone complaining about the situation doesn't know **** about baseball, but he thinks he's being misused? They stick to the same top of the order against righties when they're all healthy and the same top of the lineup against lefties when they're healthy. The Twins don't have a ton of guys that are drastically better than the other players on the roster. Buxton, Correa, and Polanco need to play everyday. And they do when they're right. Kepler, Arraez, and Larnach need to start against every righty. And they do when they're right. Garlick and Sanchez need to start against every lefty. And they do when they're right. Jeffers needs to spell Sanchez. And he does when he's right. Gordon needs to spell everyone in the OF and an IF spot or 2 here and there. And he does when he's healthy. You're misrepresenting the situation. Kepler has earned everyday player status this year and he plays everyday when he's healthy. So the Twins have 4 guys who deserve to play everyday and Sanchez who's close. Those guys play everyday. Larnach is sneaking up on that status, but due to injuries he's getting it even if he hasn't fully earned it yet. The rest of the roster need to be used in the situations that allow them to thrive the most. And they are. Until injuries force Garlick to start against righties, Miranda to play at all, Gordon to play nearly everyday, or Jeffers to DH. When everyone is healthy they're all used in the roles that they fill best. I don't care if literally every player from the 60s, 70s, 80s, 90s, and 00s are saying the exact same thing. The players in 2022 are not. Not every pitcher is on the same pitch count (but literally every pitcher does need a pitch count and they did when Kaat was playing, too, the counts are just different). Not every player gets as many "days off." You're the one trying to lump them all together. Kepler and Polanco have been used very differently since '19 than Buxton and Sano and Arraez. Ryan has been used very differently this year than Archer. Berrios has been at the top of innings pitched lists every season. He was used much different than Ober last year. The Twins adjust based on the player and their needs and the situations that they perform best in. That currently means Buxton needs more rest than him or the team would like, but that's the nature of the beast. Same with Kepler and Polanco right now.

Players have a routine and know if they're playing ahead of time. Us not knowing doesn't mean Rocco sits in his office, hotel room, house, whatever and schemes up plans to keep things hidden from his players. Arraez knows he doesn't start against lefties. Correa and Buxton know when their scheduled days off are (I hate them being on the same day and they should adjust the plan when that happens). Garlick knows he doesn't start against righties. The pen guys know which days they'll be likely to be called on and in what situations. The players know. Their routines are daily routines no matter what their role in the lineup is. They go out there everyday (outside of starting pitchers who have their own routine) and go through the same stretching, hitting, fielding, running, trainers room, weight room, etc. routine every single day. They have their routine. Back when Kaat was playing they didn't even have half the stuff the players do now. I just don't get what people think the Twins are doing. The players already know if they're starting today or not. You and I not knowing doesn't mean the team doesn't know. Kaat not being privy doesn't mean the team isn't. As for playing through injuries/while hurt, there's different levels to it. Buxton's specific knee injury isn't healed by rest. Putting him on the IL to rest until he's near 100% puts him out until after the All Star break probably. He's improving with rest days and treatment while also being able to play (although he's terrible so maybe they should sit him just to get his timing back). Kepler doesn't need 10 days to get over his injury so just needed a DH day and a rest day here and their. Why have him miss an extra week? Correa is on the covid list. No options there. Polanco has been dealing with the same ankle problems for most of his career. The answer is surgery which would take him off the team the majority of the year or play through it since he knows he can since he's been doing it most of his career. Replacing those guys with healthy minor leaguers is very much worse. The team is decimated by covid and injury list guys right now. It happens. They're still leading the division. There's still 110 games left. Let's all just relax a little instead of freaking out over 2 games without almost all of the 5 best players on the team.

You're just ignoring my entire first paragraph here. The Twins best players are hurt. So, no, I didn't defeat my own point. The point is that every team's lineup changes constantly. Due to injuries sometimes. Due to guys with massive platoon splits. Due to guys going through slumps. Due to bench guys needing to get some ABs or regulars just needing a breather. When healthy the Twins went Buxton-Arraez-Correa-Polanco against righties basically everyday. They mixed and matched on the back end some based on who was catching or who was playing LF or who was hitting well, etc. But they had a regular lineup base that they built off of. But now 2 of those top 4 are hurt and 1 is out with covid and people are mad the Twins are adjusting. The point is to make up for not having the same talent level as the Dodgers the Twins, and most other teams, have to find ways to make up the gap. They do that by using a variety of relievers while not letting the big time lineups see their starter more than twice (fire Rocco!) and by finding any platoon split advantage they can throughout the game, starting from inning 1 (fire Rocco!). Teams without All Stars 1-9 in their lineup need to switch guys in and out to find slight advantages where they can. The Twins need to switch their lineup up more than the Dodgers to find the advantage. The Dodgers having superior players means they can just plug in their top 9 and go while the Twins need to have more strategy. But, again, when healthy, the Twins have a top of the lineup that they stick with pretty darn consistently. One of my favorite things in the world are everyday Joes like us on the internet claiming we're so much smarter than the entire professional baseball industry. Its fascinating that people think they're so much smarter than the Twins and Rocco. Like we have even 1/10th of the data they do or have spoken to the players in the clubhouse. So fascinating.

Be mad at Buxton and Correa. They've openly spoken about how this is the strategy they want to follow. Buxton is hurt right now. I don't know how anyone could watch him run and not know he's hurt. That knee isn't right. He wants to have rest days while getting treatment and playing through it. Kepler is hurt right now. Don't know how anyone can watch him run and not know he's hurt. He's also playing through it so needed a rest day. Correa has covid so the league won't let him play. Polanco missed multiple games cuz his ankle is acting up. Don't know how anyone could watch him swing and not know he's hurt. Those are the 4 best hitters on the team. 1 is completely out (after having been injured earlier in the year on a HBP, can't really blame Rocco for that), and the other 3 are all trying to play through injury. Not sure how that's Rocco's fault. (I do hate resting Correa and Buxton on the same day, though) Do people really think the players are sitting around enraged that they have no idea when they're going to play or what spot in the order they'll hit in and Rocco is telling them to f off? Is that the situation people are picturing in their head? Do they think professional athletes in 2022 are afraid to speak up when they don't like something? So I am saying Kaat doesn't know what he's talking about. It's not the 60s-80s anymore. Anyone think the Dodgers aren't the best team in baseball? Over the last 7 days they've used 7 different lineups. 7 days. 7 different lineups. Yankees a pretty good offense? Last 7 days, 7 different lineups. This is how baseball is played now. Or should those teams fire their managers, too? Can we please, please, please, please, please, please, please quit blaming Rocco Baldelli for how baseball is played in 2022? And for the record, I wouldn't care if they fired Rocco tomorrow cuz I don't think he's anything special. But this is how basically every major league team is run now. It's time to accept it.

No problem! Needed a distraction from work for a bit so figured I'd look some stuff up.

Certainly plays a role. It's all very small sample sizes, but yeah, leadoff hitters have killed him.