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chpettit19

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Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    I'm not moving goal posts. I replied to your claim of it being hard to find someone to throw 180 innings of league average pitching and that Manaea has been above league average every year since 2018. You cleared up the 180 innings as you having meant 160. I pointed out that Manaea has not been league average every year since 2018. Unless you count throwing 29 innings in 2019 as being league average (throwing enough innings to really matter was part of your argument against Winder and I assume 29 innings isn't enough for you). You admitted he wasn't league average in 2020. So that's 2 out of your 4 year sample where he wasn't league average. Last year he was 4% above league average. Sorry that I'm not impressed by that. You keep claiming he's above average and now say it's "demonstrably false" to say he's league average when I'm the only one actually demonstrating anything and you have provided no evidence that he's been "above league average every season since 2018." And it's not missing the point, it's directly refuting a claim you made. Sorry if I took "2. It's a stretch to call Manaea league average anyway. He's been better than that every year since 2018 except the short season of 2020." to mean you were making a point that Manaea was league average.
  2. chpettit19
    So we're mad the Twins didn't get a #3 to front their rotation? And out of a 5 man rotation being a #3 would mean you're right in the middle, or average. I wouldn't be upset with having gotten Manaea, I'm simply pointing out that he isn't what he's being described as. I wouldn't be shocked at all if either Ryan or Ober were able to provide solid #3 performance this year. Or Paddack. Or any combination of our young guys. Manaea is not a frontline starter is the point.
  3. chpettit19
    Agreed on none of the prospects getting to 160. That number makes more sense there. I'm not misrepresenting his numbers at all. 2020 is not skewing his numbers as he only threw 54 innings in 2020. By that argument 2019 is skewing his numbers by having a 1.21 ERA in a small sample of 29.2 innings. For all intents and purposes 107 is league average. Especially for a pitcher how has bounced back and forth between basically 95 and 105 on his ERA+s. And many people have argued on here that the Padres got Manaea for basically nothing so it most certainly is not most certainly difficult to accumulate such pitchers. I wouldn't be shocked if Winder threw 100 innings of league average pitching this season. Wouldn't be shocked at all. Paddack has had a better season than Manaea ever has. And I also don't see anyone doing all that much praising of Paddack. In fact it's almost all very quiet hope that he can get back close to his peak. Which is higher than Manaea's. There's a difference between saying the trade was good value for the Twins and stumbling over ourselves to praise Paddack.
  4. chpettit19
    Touche. That's my bad.
  5. chpettit19
    1. So difficult that Manaea has never actually done it. Yes, he hit 179 last year, but let's not pretend he's some sort of workhorse. 2. It's not a stretch at all. He's gone slightly above average (106 ERA+) to slightly below average (95 ERA+) to slightly more than slightly above average 116 to injured to slightly below 93 to slightly above 104. He's got a career 107 ERA+. He's almost the exact definition of league average.
  6. chpettit19
    This was a thought of mine as well. There's certainly some evidence it may be the org as they also had a ton of pitchers who were expected to be great last year because they'd previously been great and they almost universally flopped. Musgrove was just about their only successful pitcher last year. Maybe it's more about the team than this specific arm. Or at least we can hang a little hope on the idea.
  7. chpettit19
    He was certainly the best reliever they had. No doubt about that. You won't hear details on which coaches they talked to and how the trade happened. When do we ever hear that stuff? Of course they have more recent insight into his health, but the Twins have already gone over some medical stuff and will have their team drs do an exam on him before the deal is completely finalized. All trades are based on assumed healthy players. If Paddack is hurt, or his elbow scans show more damage than the Padres were telling teams, the Twins pull out of the trade and it's no big deal. The Red Sox literally just did that to the Twins in the Graterol/Maeda deal. The Padres' staff's feelings on Paddack's value means nothing to the Twins. It's their view on the type of player they can turn him into that matters. And Tingler has every bit as much knowledge on his willingness to be coached up, his competitiveness, and all the other things that the team cares about as the current Padres staff.
  8. chpettit19
    I didn't say Rogers was bad. I said when Rogers was in the bullpen the bullpen was bad. You stated that when he wasn't healthy the bullpen was bad. That isn't true. When he was healthy (the first half of the season) the bullpen was terrible. After he got hurt the bullpen did very well. I'm not saying no Rogers was why it was good, but your statement "The bullpen without a healthy Rogers was THE Achilles heel of this team last year." is factually incorrect. The bullpen without a healthy Rogers was very good. Your argument is that the FO's 2nd highest ranked coach was a trade target's manager the previous season and it's unlikely that they talked to said coach about that trade target? They should be fired if they didn't talk to him. This trade came together over 12 hours of time and you don't think they took the time to shoot Tingler a text at the very least and ask him if he thought Paddack could be coached up?
  9. chpettit19
    This is wrong. The bullpen WITH a healthy Rogers was the Achilles heal of the first half. The bullpen WITHOUT Rogers was actually very good. Paddack's manager from last year is now the Twins bench coach. I'd think he has some first-hand knowledge of Paddack.
  10. chpettit19
    Not to mention it's a terrible idea to package your best trade chips.
  11. chpettit19
    I think they go committee early and if/when someone grabs hold of it they lock them in more permanently. Guessing it's a bunch of matchup based bullpen usage early on.
  12. chpettit19
    I don't like losing Rogers, but I don't mind this deal. Paddack's peripherals have been quite good and if he's able to get his ERA to more closely align with those peripherals this is a steal for the Twins. This likely puts more pressure on Alcala, Thielbar, and Duran to become big pen arms, but if you can trade a reliever with 1 year of control for a starter with 3 you should probably do that.
  13. chpettit19
    Archer topped out at 95.2 in his first appearance.
  14. chpettit19
    The expanded rosters in April may be a natural timeline for a really poor performance from any of the pitchers. Anyone who has a terrible April should be worried about being on the chopping block come May 1 when rosters go back down to 26. If nobody has a bad April we'll all be very happy and 2 guys with options will be very sad they have to go over to St Paul.
  15. chpettit19
    The philosophy change has already taken place. The question now is whether or not they've been successful in implementing the change. The current FO set up new technology and coaching throughout the system to implement a new strategy for developing pitching. The arms are now arriving and we get to see how well they did implementing their plan. Ober was a good first sign, but the real test is if they've produced someone for the top of a rotation and then if they can develop multiple guys for the top of the rotation. The change has been made and this year we start seeing if it's been well executed.
  16. chpettit19
    I'm with @jmlease1. If this wave of prospects produces 5 starting pitchers out of Ober, Ryan, Canterino, Winder, SWR, Balazavic, Sands, Strotman, Enlow, Dobnak, Duran, Henriquez, Jax, and Vallimont they are in amazing position. They'd have all of those guys on league minimum type deals for 3 years plus arb for 3 more. That gives you 6 years to replenish the system. I'm not predicting they're going to get 5 good starters out of that group so nobody tell me all the problems with each guy and how they're doomed. Just saying that's the wave approaching the majors at the same time and if you produce 5 homegrown arms from 1 wave you're the envy of the league and you have years of cushion before you need to worry about the next wave arriving. If you get 3 out of that you're still in great shape. If you end up with 1 you're pretty well screwed. If Jeffers, Miranda, Kirilloff, Martin, and Lewis take the C, 3B, 1B, LF, and SS spots for the next 5/6 years to go along with Buxton in center and Polanco at 2B (for most of that time) you have a ton of time to replenish the position player prospect pool. If you end up with just Kirilloff, Buxton, and Polanco you're in a far tougher spot. The Twins have done well timing a wave all at roughly the same time. That's the goal with every major league team. Produce the core of your team through your system and have them all arrive at the same time. That gives you a cheap core and you can plug the holes with veteran MLB players. The question isn't at all whether or not the system will be depleted from 2023-2028 it's whether the major league team will be. If the major league team flops because they developed no core players they're doomed. If the major league team is good because they developed their own core players the system doesn't matter for a handful more years.
  17. chpettit19
    Michael Conforto.
  18. chpettit19
    Faria being out of options makes his path harder. Stashak, Jax, and Romero all have options left so he'd have to be seen as a long-term piece for the season as a whole and not just an extra long man for April. Unless the Twins are ready to lose one of the other 3 on waivers now plus Faria at the end of the month. Seems like poor asset management to me so I'd think he's a long shot. I'd take Garlick over Rooker as well. At least Garlick can mash lefties and he's not good defensively, but not as embarrassing as Rooker out there. I just don't see the fit on the roster for a player like Rooker. I don't know that I'd even be all that scared that he'd be claimed on waivers. Somebody would have to see an elite bat in him and I just don't get how anyone sees that. But I've been wrong before. I'm not as animated about Cave as others, but I don't ever want to see him in a Twins jersey again. He doesn't bring anything that Gordon doesn't and I'd rather have Gordon's speed and ability to play the IF as well as OF. I'm clearly not a Rooker fan either, but I'd even be mad losing Rooker for Cave. There's no position players left to DFA to get Cave on the roster. His only hope should be a 60-day stint from multiple other OFers.
  19. chpettit19
    Yeah, I stated that in a small sample size it'd be considered bad luck but he's done it for so long that it's now who he is. I'm not attempting to claim he's likely to see a drastic jump in his BA (until next year maybe). But a player who is above average in literally every batted ball offensive category should be impactful. I think you're really underselling what it means to even be "pink" in every category while mixing it with "deep red" defensive ratings. If you showed someone his baseball savant page and asked them to predict what sort of slash line they have they'd guess much better than Kepler. It's what makes him so interesting, and disappointing. I'm not a Rooker or Wallner believer. I'll take Wallner's glove over Rooker's, but to me he's just a left handed Rooker with the bat. Don't think either of them hit enough to be a DH or to make up for their lack of glove in the OF. I do hope they prove me wrong, though. Rosario is intriguing to me. I want Kirilloff at 1B full time starting in 2023 (if not part way through 2022). But overall the corner OF spots that were viewed as a real strength of this organization the last couple years are looking far more questionable now. But they're far easier spots to fill externally than SS or SP. I'd love to see them get crazy and go sign Conforto.
  20. chpettit19
    I've seen a few people post this idea, and openly admit I've put 0 effort whatsoever into trying to track down these rumors, but I don't get why the Yankees would have tendered Sanchez if the plan was to DFA him in the spring. I know 8M is basically nothing for them, but wouldn't they just have non-tendered him if they didn't have any plans to have him on the team? It's possible they'd already spoken with the Twins and/or other teams about dumping him in a deal to bring back a "bad" contract or salary dump from another team I guess. I just think they planned to have him on their team for 2022 or they wouldn't have tendered him an 8M arb deal. I'm guessing they planned to use him as their 2nd C behind Higashioka, but I just don't see the DFA angle.
  21. chpettit19
    He's one of the most interesting hitters in baseball. His batted ball data is all above average. His baseball savant page is full of red (good) numbers. But he gets no hits. It's quite interesting. In a small sample size (one season let's say) most front offices would view it as bad luck and see him as a buy low candidate due for positive regression to the mean, but he's done it for years so it just seems to be who he is. So your eyes really aren't lying to you about how he appears to be in at bats. Next year will be very interesting for him and I hope he's still on the Twins for it even if he's the 4th OFer because younger guys have come on the scene. As the left side of a platoon with no more shifts he could be quite good. But for now I want his glove in RF as much as possible with the question marks on the mound. Give them all the help we can.
  22. chpettit19
    That's pretty much where I'm at other than Moran instead of Winder. Wonder if they'd like to get Winder regular starts in AAA (not to mention suppressing his service time) and have a 3rd lefty in the pen to start the year.
  23. chpettit19
    He's been worth 2.4, 1.9, 3.5, 4.0, 1.1, and 2.1 bWAR since he came up for good in 2016. 1.3, 1.5, 2.7, 4.5, 1.0, 1.9 fWAR. Teams generally look to get 1 WAR for $8M. He's making 6.75 and 8.5 this year and next. He's been worth those numbers every year of his career (even the shortened 2020 season when he reached the 1.0 WAR plateau in just 48 games). I think people underestimate the impact he has on the game. I agree with others that the real problem is Rocco trying to force him into the leadoff spot or the heart of the order. If he's hitting 7-9 in the order fans would be less upset about his batting numbers since the expectation wouldn't be that he's one of the stars on the team. You can absolutely win with Max Kepler in right field. Especially if the no shift rule in 2023 results in a boost to his BA.
  24. chpettit19
    Baseball contracts are guaranteed so he most certainly won't be cut as the Twins would have to pay him anyways, and he'd have no reason to re-do it so the only option would be a salary dump trade.
  25. chpettit19
    I haven't said he should start in the bigs. I haven't said he should move positions yet. I haven't even predicted he would be up before September in this thread. You guys are all arguing against things I've literally not said. A poster said the only way Lewis is up before September is bad things have happened and he'd be playing above his level like Larnach and Celestino had to do last year. I am simply stating that it is entirely possible that a kid with his skill set and physical abilities could have made drastic changes to his game by doing something like changing his leg kick (news flash: HE DID!) during an entire season where he did nothing but work every day on his game with his coaches. I don't get why this is such a controversial thing to say. Jose Miranda had never done anything in the minors and changed his game over 1 offseason to have an incredible season last year that should've lead to his debut. Akil Baddoo had played 29 games in 2 years with a .683 OPS in high A before having a .766 OPS in the majors last year. All I'm saying is that it's entirely possible that a prospect of Lewis' level can make a jump and it's possible he reaches the majors before September of his own accord and not because the team has failed or injuries have ravaged the entire lineup. I seriously don't get why that is controversial. I'm not predicting it I'm saying it's possible. Seems pretty standard.
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