chpettit19

Disagree. They need extra arms right now. The pen is being overworked, and Ober is already at his career high in innings pitched. When is Ryan going to be back? If Keuchel is in this rotation for much longer the pen is going to be shot. If you option someone down they're back in AAA for basically half the month automatically so you're only able to do it with a couple guys. And they don't really have that many guys to cycle in the first place. And they already platoon, pinch hit, and mix up the lineup enough. They don't need 15 bats. You don't have to platoon 7 lineup spots. Arms are far more important right now.

Your analogy doesn't work there. For that analogy to match your first set of rules there it'd have to be people who worked at another landscaping company coming up to you and having thoughts. But I'm off to the Saints game (hoping to stay mostly dry!) so I won't even be watching the Twins tonight. Hope it goes well and everyone enjoys!

There are people on these boards whose occupation is baseball. Are they allowed to wail, moan, or gnash teeth?

Farmer. Farmer to first and Julien in the lineup. I do think they're actually looking at defense first in this one, though. Want their best defensive infield with Keuchel on the mound. Wouldn't be my strategy, but it does look like theirs.

I know it's a lefty, and Luplow and/or Castro will get hit for as soon as a righty comes in, but seeing those 2 at the top of the order is super depressing. Legit playoff teams aren't hitting Castro-Luplow in the 1-2 holes, sorry.

They can all hit flyballs, yes. But league average for driving in the runner from 3rd with less than 2 outs is 50.4%. The Twins currently have a 47.3% success rate in that situation. I'd argue that this lineup is at least 3% worse than average. So they're succeeding at their talent level. Fans make it sound like these guys should be succeeding near 100% at this. The guys on the mound get paid, too. It's not that easy to just hit a fly ball and score the run. We can be as disappointed as we want with the Twins, but the rest of the league is only succeeding 50% of the time anyways. It's not that easy. And I don't agree that they teach every hitter to swing for the fences every at bat regardless of the situation. I think that's a dramatic exaggeration fans use because they're frustrated. Jeffers isn't doing that. Vazquez isn't. Farmer isn't. Julien isn't. Polanco isn't. Solano definitely isn't. Castro isn't. Kepler isn't. Luplow isn't. That's 9 guys on the current roster that aren't doing that at all. Lewis and Kirilloff don't do it. Larnach doesn't do it. Not Miranda style (although he got a little power happy this year I think). I get that we have a need to blame someone, and look for reasons why things aren't happening. As fans we also want to have faith that are team can be good (otherwise why cheer for them?). But the reality of the situation is that many of these hitters simply aren't that good. Not every strike out, or failed AB is because they're trying to hit HRs. League average pull rate is 38.7%. Twins are at 39.7%. They aren't trying to pull and launch everything. Not that it'd be terrible if they were as the Braves are currently at 41.1% and I think we'd all be ok with this team having a Braves type offense. League average oppo rate is 24.9%. Twins are at 24.7%. All stats according to Baseball Savant, btw. They aren't doing anything crazy. They're just not very good (compared to other major league lineups) at hitting the ball well. And many of us voiced concerns about that coming into the season. When you add the 2 guys everyone was counting on having abysmal seasons it accounts for all these numbers easily.

I don't know what this has to do with what I said. Is your belief that the Saints just randomly started playing Royce Lewis in CF last year when he was sent back down? Do you believe they randomly started playing him at 3B this year? Do you believe they are randomly playing Martin in CF, LF, and 2B? These decisions are made by the Twins organization. There is no debating that. The Saints obviously want to win, why wouldn't they? But the discussion was about Garlick playing 1B instead of Larnach. Your argument was that it was the Saints making that decision on their own because they felt Garlick was the better player. You are wrong. That is not how those decisions are made. The Twins FO tells the Saints, and all their minor league affiliates, where to play prospects. The coaches in the minor leagues are Twins employees. Gardenhire was assigned to the Saints by the Twins. Those coaches provide feedback, and suggestions, to the Twins FO, but the Twins FO is the one who tells them where to play guys.

To me, they're just a severely flawed lineup that lacks the skills necessary to succeed on a regular basis. I don't think it's shocking to anyone that a number of these guys strike out often, or aren't everyday players. Not sure why we'd then be shocked that they strike out often with guys on 3rd and less than 2 outs, or aren't able to drive in runs at a high rate. They're not a good lineup. Especially when Kirilloff and Lewis are hurt, Buxton and Correa are having horrid years, and Polanco has been in and out of the lineup. Are we surprised they're not a great offensive team when Castro, Solano, Taylor, Gallo, and Farmer are all in their top 8 in PAs this year? That's a lot of part time players getting fulltime run. Of course they're inconsistent. They're worst in the league at getting guys to 3rd with less than 2 outs in the first place. If they can't even get guys there why are we surprised they're not good when they finally do? To me, they're just a bad lineup. So, as the argument against clutch hitting would say, they're bad in clutch situations as well. Bad hitters hitting bad in clutch situations shouldn't be surprising.

The argument against "clutch hitting" isn't that everyone would perform the same with a large enough sample size, it's that they perform to their "non-clutch" norms. Basically guys who are good without runners on are still good with them on (assuming a large enough sample size). The Twins just don't have a very talented lineup. Especially when Correa and Buxton are this bad. The Astros hit a grand slam to beat Bautista. The game they beat him they went Singleton Walk-Altuve Pulled Single (soft contact, though)- Bregman Strike Out- Alvarez Missile up the middle-Tucker pulled grand slam- Diaz strike out. So 2 of the 3 balls in play were pulled, including 1 for a home run, and the other one went up the middle at 102 MPH. That isn't going to the opposite field and not pulling. They pulled the ball, struck out, but hit a homer. Pretty much exactly what people complain about the Twins doing.

He's done it once (July 14, 15, 16). But, yeah, he wasn't going to pitch in every game of that series. He hadn't pitched in nearly a week. Just needed to get an inning.

I'd be a little surprised if they called either of them up for September. Farmer is their 3rd catcher, and has MLB experience behind the plate (although not since 2019). I'd expect them to go to 14 pitchers, though, and call up Larnach. Where things would likely change is if Kirilloff comes back healthy and they're willing to move on from Gallo which would open another spot. I'm not holding my breath there, though.

FYI, they can only carry 14 pitchers even with expanded rosters.

This isn't true. The Twins absolutely have a say in who plays where for the Saints. They're not out there dictating every lineup or anything, but they absolutely are the ones telling the Saints to play Martin at 2B, LF, and CF. They're the ones telling them not to catch Williams everyday, but to get him 1B reps. They're the ones who told the Saints to play Lewis at 3B. The Saints are absolutely not free to simply play who they want where they want. That isn't how the minors works. The coaching staff gives the Twins info on how guys are looking, but the Twins are the ones who decide where to get guys reps. And who to prioritize in getting playing time.

That doesn't feel like it helps this team at all. They're the same guy they just hit from opposite sides of the plate. Neither has any future with the team. I wouldn't want to see Garlick hitting against righties anymore than I'd want to see Gallo.

Fangraphs is showing Larnach having another option left next year, but I thought he'd been optioned each of the last 2 years, plus this year? If he has an option left it changes the situation a little as they can continue to do what they're doing and have him bounce back and forth. If not, they're finally going to either have to give him a roster spot or move on. They tend to not like to make decisions until they have no other choice so it will be interesting to see how they handle him when he's out of options. Not trading him so far would seem to point to him being on the squad next year. But things can change fast. Wallner has been really good so far. Will definitely be interesting to see how he adjusts to the adjustments. It's encouraging that he's made some adjustments in the minors to improve his K rate. Gives us hope that he can make some adjustments at the big league level, but we won't know for a while still. Has been fun watching him so far, though!

Hey, my guys in The Show boot low throws at first all the time when I put them there out of position. Don't lie to the people about video games!

I'm going to the game Saturday so I selfishly hope Lewis is still there! He can start helping the Twins again on Sunday. Will be fun to watch these 2 adjust and grow together with the Twins.

I'd like to find out in a game!

Good to see another board instantly turned into a "Gallo needs to go!" board. We are nothing if not efficient around here. And I'm not judging, I definitely add to that chant. Just funny to me that we're able to turn every discussion into an anti-Gallo thread. As for this article, I have Thielbar #1. The back end of this bullpen is by far my biggest concern. Do I trust the offense? Not really. But I trust them more than the bullpen, and there's a couple guys in AAA that could be possible helps. The bullpen is a currently kind of shaky to watch Jax and Duran plus a whole bunch of cross your fingers and hope. And there's nobody around as even decent possible upgrades. If Thielbar can get back to close to what he's been the last 2 years it'd be absolutely huge. Hopefully come playoff time the starters are able to go 6+ in every game and the pen can just be Duran, Jax, and a hopefully resurgent Thielbar. Otherwise, I have no idea how they finish out playoff games.

The 4 hits that didn't exceed 65 don't help the case. That just means more guys on base for the hard hit balls. The difference between a 95 MPH grounder and a 95 MPH liner and a 95 MPH fly ball are fractions of an inch on the barrel. When it's being thrown 87 MPH the margin of error is miniscule, and if he leaves that pitch up even a little that 95 MPH grounder people aren't worried about turns into a 95 MPH HR. If the Twins get 1 earned in 5 innings more than they don't of course it's a success. The question is how likely is that to happen. And the data from his first game says it's not very likely. Keuchel hasn't succeeded without striking people out. He's not striking people out anymore. He hasn't succeeded in years. The odds of him not improving his stuff in any meaningful way, and not being likely at all to bounce back closer to 20% K rate, makes it very unlikely he is successful moving forward. Is giving him 3 starts until Ryan is back the end of the world? Absolutely not. Do we have any reason to believe this FO will just cut him loose when Ryan returns? Absolutely not. I mean there's people on these pages talking about him being on the playoff staff. His 60+% groundball rate is the only data point from his first start that gives any hope to him having any sort of success. Every other data point says we're about to see the 5.25-9.25 ERA Keuchel from the last 2 years. Any random AAA pitcher we call up can do that.

Not sure if you've ever used Baseball Savant, but it's pretty cool. It's MLB's public facing data center. I've linked below to some of the pages. Atlanta is the only team averaging over 90 MPH exit velo, and they may break the Twins single season HR record this year. Nobody else over 90. Keuchel definitely gave up some squibbers and pop outs, but he also gave up a lot of balls hit over 90 MPH. By player sorted highest to lowest avg exit velo. By team sorted highest to lowest avg exit velo. Keuchel's numbers from that game.

Love it. Agree with it all. And, to add to it, Julien was taking reps at 1B on his own, not at the behest of the team.

I have no problem with being blunt, but if you want to do the full context there's even more to it. 6 barrels in 5 innings is a ton. An absolute ton. Gallen gave up 4 on 14 balls in play in 7 innings. Keuchel gave up 6 on 21 balls in play in 5 innings. That's over 1 barrel per inning for Keuchel, and just over .5 per inning for Gallen. Gallen K'd 8 in 7 innings while Keuchel K'd 0 in 5. Gallen allowed 2 balls in play per inning. Keuchel allowed over 4. You are not surviving giving up over a barrel an inning while striking nobody out. Yes, the ball on the ground hit hard is less dangerous than the ball in the air hit hard. But when every batter you face either walks or puts the ball in play even those balls on the ground matter. When you're giving up 4 hits on even the soft contact the hard contact is even more concerning when, once again, you're not striking anyone out. If Keuchel can maintain a 60+% groundball rate he has a better chance of surviving all that hard contact with no, to very few, Ks. He hasn't done that since 2019, and he was K'ing 19% of his batters faced then. The data is not on Keuchel's side.

Yeah, I'd only put Julien in LF. Arm isn't ideal there, but if he can field fly balls halfway decent I'd prefer that over him at 2B. I'd be pretty surprised at this point if Severino wasn't added to the 40-man, and if he can play 1B that's probably his best bet. At least add that to your options to give yourself 1 more spot where you could get the call.

I mean he's not Vazquez slow, but he's not exactly fast. He's a good base runner who was capable of taking advantage of lower level pitchers who weren't good at holding runners. I have to imagine he's just brutal at reading fly balls. No idea why else he couldn't survive in LF. He's certainly faster than Arraez, and they played him in LF when they needed to. Them giving up on him in the OF so quickly is interesting.