Trov

Overall I would agree with this. The Odo trade they were dealing from depth and need to cut money. I would disagree with the Ryan for Cruz trade. If Rays did have him slotted as a pen arm, that is on them for not seeing what he could be. Sure he may not stay at level he has been, but I have not seen any signs of regression overall. They may have needed a bat, but they could have found one somewhere for much less than what they gave up. It shows at worst that they just were wrong on Ryan, which it happens because they stole Anderson from us for nothing, but maybe that will not turn out as he really only had 1 decent year, and been injured all last year and this year. The Garza deal we got fleeced, but that is more on us. Pretty sure Garza did not like it here and we decided to try and get a bat for him. We were thinking on old ways of baseball at that time, not thinking bat first corner OF guys are easy to find. We were hoping Young would be more than he was, which was not terrible but pitching is king and bat first corner OF guys, unless they are HOF bound, are easy to find.

Please site your source for his lack of speed to cover CF? His throwing has been in question, but I have not read anything to suggests he lacks speed to cover CF. He clearly has speed with 21 stolen bases this year already, and baseball reference has his range factor, which is outs plus assists/ 9 innings at a high level. Maybe it is just good positioning, but Buxton is current active leader, and 16th on all time list, at 2.714. Martin in minors so far is 2.34 in CF. This on par with Kevin Pillar, who is 6th on current active list. This year in very small sample size he is 3.49, but in only 6 games so would regress most likely. For comparison Gilberto Celestino has a career minor league mark at 2.20 in CF. The point is, his early numbers show he may not be elite at defending CF, but could most likely could hold it down. It is possible his numbers are just small sample size compared to guys who spent every game in CF or mostly, but please provide your source for fact Martin lacks the speed to play CF.

I quit watching once the infield just let a pop up drop without a single player trying to catch it. I knew how it was going to go from that point.

I fully agree. Most people think first is just stand there and catch ball at ya. Which in a lot of cases that may be the situation. However, there are many ways to mess even that up. Stretch too early, or not have feet set right to make the right stretch. With all the shifting you need to figure out when to go after a ball and when not to. Also, pitcher need to do better getting over to cover on any ball hit that direction. They are so used to think only balls close to first, but now some first basemen are only person on that side and need to cover more range. First is not as easy to defend as many people think, and even harder now than ever before with the shift.

The FIP for this year is a bit off because his walks were so high the first few games. Also, FIP for a relief pitcher is not a great way to measure them. If you give up a solo HR in a three run game but get the save, the FIP will jump off the charts, However, they still got the job done. Look at Josh Hader, his FIP jumped from .99 to 2.28 when he gave up to solo shots the other day. I am not comparing the two, I am just pointing out that FIP will change so much when you are doing 1 inning at a time. I am not saying Pagan is lights out or anything, and can we improve sure, but my point is he has for most part got the job done compared to what we could have. It also shows how saves are way over blown. Some guys get the saves, but do not shut the door when it is a multi run game. It gets ya nervous and may not be sustainable. Fernando Rodney was the perfect example of this. Much of his career pretty high FIP and ERA, a couple of great years, but he still got a lot of saves, converting 80% life time. Rivera, most likely best "closer" ever was 89%. Rodney would come in a 3 run lead give up 2 leaving 2 on. Come in with 1 run lead leave bases loaded. I am not saying Pagan is amazing, by any stretch, but he has been effective enough so far. Could that change quickly, sure.

The write up was not about a single game, but how he has been hitting overall last week or two. He has 10 hits in 28 at-bats, with 3 HR. Yes, SSS and he could just as quickly drop back to what he was, but he has raised his season OPS nearly .200 points in that span. I doubt anyone is saying he is on his way to ROY or anything, but his at bats have been looking better overall too.

I would not say he is the best trade chip, as you noted his prospect ranking is dropping, hard to say he is a top trade chip if his value is dropping. Now, if the question was is he most likely to be traded if one is made, I would agree with that. I do like him overall, and the throwing errors would hopefully be something he can work on. He has great range and speed but with Lewis looking like he will hopefully hold down SS, or at least better than Martin would, and Buck locked up long term in CF, Martin is not knocking on the door and we could send him off and not be hurting because of it. Based on his dropping value not sure he nets what people would be hoping though. Our best trade chips would be Buck, Correa, Lewis, or Ryan in my opinion, but you do not trade any of them if you are trying to win this year or anytime soon.

Recently TD had article about how Pagan, and all season people have been posting about him. First, is he being unfairly attacked because he was part of the Rodgers trade? I mean he did not ask to be in that trade, but people seem to be comparing the two. More on that later. Yes, early on he was walking way to many guys and walking the tight rope. When you look at his per game break down, for some reason he has been terrible against Detroit, but against other teams his numbers are not too bad. Take out Detroit, which are all his blown saves or blown lead, one was in 8th so not a save, of 1 run leads. He has given up 4 runs, 2 ER, but he did give up a HR in the game of 2 unearned, over 14.1 innings with 2 HR. Against Detroit he has given up 4 runs, all earned, with 3 HR over 4.2 innings. Of course we do count the Detroit games, but absent those his overall results have not been bad, as none of the runs he gave up in the other games affected the overall outcome really. He did pick up the loss in the 7-2 loss against the dodgers back on April 12. He gave up 1 run, just happened to be the one that got the loss. I would suggest that if he came to the Twins in a trade not involving Rodgers, or if he was just signed as a FA fans would be giving him a bit more of a break. Since early May he has really cut down his walks. Walking 1 in his last 11.1 innings. He has given up 11 hits over that period, for a WHIP of about 1. Not terrible for a pen arm. All guys are going to blow saves, Hader just had his streak broken with to solo shots the other day. I am not specifically comparing the seasons of Rodgers and Pagan, but Rodgers did start off on fire, converting 17 of first 18 save chances, the one blow save he let in with 2 outs runners that were on when he came in so did not get credited for giving up any runs. Over his last few outings he has blown 2 saves and picked up a loss in addition in a non save situation. He also got a save in last outing while giving up 1 run. We have seen Rodger runs like that in the past, but I remember reading many articles and comments about how good Rodgers is and how it was just SSS and will bounce back, but Pagan has been getting the opposite treatment of how he will get blown up soon. It is not fair to compare the seasons the two are having, and that is not what the point of this post is. It is about the fact that I feel some have been harder on Pagan because he was involved in a trade for Rogers, who many felt he was better than what his numbers always suggested. I will admit, I am not happy when Pagan gets the 9th over Duran, but after noticing Detroit is the only team that has really hurt us when Pagan comes in, I am not as nervous. Maybe Pagan will start blowing more saves, I hope not, but he seems to be doing just fine when pitching against any team not the Tigers. Lets hope he stops getting games against them going forward. Also, this is not an attack on Rogers, he has been good, but just like he always did with us, he will blow saves and lose games. If you actually compare game to game, Rogers has been involved in more losses than Pagan has. In fairness Rogers has pitched in 7 more games, so more of a chance to do so. However, for the people comparing the two and wishing we never made the trade, there is little evidence to think we would have any more wins if the trade never got made.

Miranda really worked on things after his 1 day demotion. That was one hell of a day in St. Paul to learn how to hit at the MLB level.

Many rookies do not perform to what they did in minors, however, players generally peak between ages 27 and 30. Most do not become FA until 29 to 31. You will find no team that wins simply built on just FA signed players, no matter the positions. Supplementing a team with FA can help put them over the top for sure, but to completely build a team from top FA has never worked out for teams. Normally the player drops off in production and are barely replacement level player, but when you paying big bucks you feel like you need to send them out there, or you kept trading away prospects of that position over the years because they were blocked anyways, so you have no depth in organization. Building from within is not nearly as much of a crap shoot as signing old vets. You have years to determine what you have and form the players in your style. Yes, many times top prospects do not work out, but I challenge you to find a single team that has more FA signed players than home grown players. I would include players traded to organization while still in minors or considered rookies as home grown, despite not being drafted or signed originally with team. If you just tried to build a team on draft, or trades, or FA, you will not have a good team. You need a mix of all three, but too heavy on FA or trades will set teams back for years. As shown this year, depth is needed. Imagine if we traded away all our top young guys over last year or two? Where would we be with all the injuries? I was not suggesting you only rely on players from your minors to help the team, but to only rely on the FA you will miss much more than you hit on. Just look at the FA pitching this year. Many fans wanted us to sign like 3 or 4 FA pitchers, because we had too many unproven starters. I started a forum about how right now only like 2 of the FA pitchers we could have had a real chance of singing, I did not include Scherzer, Verlander, or Kershaw, as all there were not coming here, have been a good signing so far. Gausman, who we beat, and Rodon, who started off hot, but has slipped as season has gone on. Rest big signings are not off to good starts overall.

Mad Bum numbers on their face look fine, but a deeper look suggests he may be set for a poor run. His first 6 starts were great, but since he has been okay. I would not give up Kiriloff for him. I would be willing to take a flier on him over Bundy right now, but not Kiriloff. Mad Bum is giving up hard hit rate of 46%, and a K-rate of 16% with a walk rate of 8%. with a FIP of 5.01. All of Bundy's numbers in those categories are better. I would just be worried with Mad Bum too, he may be getting by with a lot of luck and will get blown up soon.

I do not know about Gray or Winder, not much updates, but Ryan is supposed to get a rehab start soon coming of the COVID list.

Sad to hear E-Rod needed help off field. Lets hope it is not a major injury but only miss a few weeks at most. He was set to get moved up to High A I bet soon.

Overall I liked the hitting approach by the team against Cortes. They fell behind in the counts early, but still made him work, and was willing to just put the ball in play getting some weak contact hits. Archer was okay and the overall results were good, but he was walking tight rope all night falling behind and walking guys. The GIDP helped him get out of a lot of possible messes. Miranda really needs to work on defending first, he looked liked a mess out there last night.

They for sure made the best pick in Buxton. Gausman would have been the only one you could say looking back may have been the better pick, but even moving forward Buck still has the biggest impact when he his on the field. Had we known he would have so many injury issues, maybe we go a different way, but not upset at all with what Buck has done. We could have drafted the bust Appel.

I do not think the article is saying Urshela is our worst option, but it is pointing out that sometimes the eye plays tricks with big plays, when routine ones are not being made. Not saying Urshela is the worst option, but maybe not as good as old Dick likes to say.

In a 162 game season you do need to worry about the following games. If this was a best of 3, 5, or 7 series, yeah you do not worry about the next game if you can win the one you are in. You worry about tomorrow, tomorrow. However, in a 162 game season, you know we will play tomorrow. As pointed out you cannot ride the same 3 guys every game and need innings out of others. Even if that results in a loss sometimes. Yes, you can complain, but where will we be later in the year if all our end of pen guys are burnt out with arm injuries because we used them over and over in every close game early in season?

First, I agree with your statement that teams should be built from within, trading for prospects and younger cost controlled talent. Very few players perform well past their 33rd age year. Some do, but very few. Some even drop off sooner. I have long argued we should not build our whole team on FA like many fans want. Most big time signings never work out long term for teams. Having a solid core and depth is best. However, I do feel, if you can sign some guys to larger short term deals to supplement where their are holes, that is a good way to go as well. The main issue is most players that are top end talents are not looking for more per year but less years, they normally want the more years or overall total. My main point is MLB says teams make less than we think, and I know full well some teams have much better TV deals. Twins tried to get their own network to increase the money they would get years ago, but it flopped. We truly do not know where each team falls in the revenue stream. Twins are middle of the road as they have been near the middle of spending, despite how some fans think we are one of lowest in league. We just hardly ever make the big splash, but look at the teams that have, how well has that worked out? Like Padres, Seattle, Detroit, Texas, and more. Many have terrible contracts on old vets or did have them and need to pay just not have them on the team because they are below replacement.

This is going to be an ugly series. Our bottom 3 current starters versus their top 3 current starters. I still cannot believe that "foul" call in Kepler at bat. I mean if they want to say he swung okay, but to say that was foul, I mean it shows how bad some calls can be. I felt the called balls and strikes were not bad last night, but that was terrible call. I do not feel it made the difference in a game at least though.

It is still just his second year in profession ball. My guess he will get moved up soon, but he was not a top prospect and sometimes numbers do not tell the full tale. We have had many pitchers do well in minors and never make it to the MLB level.

This is a great article on how the eye test can be deceiving when it comes to defense in baseball. I long said Jeter was not nearly as good on defense as people thought. He would make these flashy plays and that looks great, but you do not think about the plays they do not make that are not errors. I remember watching a highlight video of outfield plays and someone commented that Jim Edmounds, who made some great diving catches, really was not that good on defense because he was slow and had less range that is why he had to dive so much. Now I have not looked up to see if that was accurate, but the point is, sometimes making a diving highlight play does not mean you are good on defense, because a good defender may have made that play look easy. Buck is a great defender, not just because he can make some diving plays, but because his range is crazy, and he gets great jumps, so he gets to balls most will not even get to. That is also why when I see errors for infielders in minor leagues, I always say, we do not know what kind of errors they are if you did not see them. Joe Crede one year led league in errors at third, but was considered best defender by runs saved. This is because players with great range sometimes will get errors on throws when they try to make plays they can, but many others could not. The play would be a hit plus an extra base. A lessor defender would have not even been in place to make the throw. Urshela makes the highlight plays, but I fully agree he has also not made many plays he could.

The Angles FO is mostly to blame for the failures over the years. They have made terrible signings year in and year out for way overpaid over the hill bats. Yes, they hit on Trout in the draft, and got Otani, but beyond that they continue to fail to build a real team around the top talent. It is hard to win as a manager when your pitching is terrible, and the back of your lineup. Until the Angels fix their FO it will not matter who runs the team on the field. Angels have no depth if any injuries happen to their few stars, and of their big FA signings, not counting Otani because he was young international signing, but the late 20's or past 30's FA in past decade plus, who worked out?

How do you know all those teams are on bottom half of "revenue"? They are on bottom half of payroll, and a few you know are on bottom half of "revenue", like the Rays and A's based on just general attendance. However we do not know for sure where the revenues really are at, other than Atlanta who has to show those numbers.

At the time of original post, that Angels were still above .500. If they continue to slide I would agree he will get dumped, and if someone is willing to take on rest of pay it will not take much of a prospect most likely. He has been okay, not great and most likely would slide into about 3 or 4 if we have a fully healthy rotation.

It is hard to call Kirirlloff and Sano Goats when they have not played a ton due to injury. Sano did play a lot up to that and was terrible overall, but Twins were winning when he ended up getting injured. Pagan has blown a couple of saves now, and he may get worse, but he has not cost us a ton of games. Both his BS and his blown lead in 8th are against Detroit, maybe we just stop playing him against them. If you take away those three outings his numbers are not terrible. Outside of those Tiger games he has only give up runs in 3 outings none of which affected the outcome of the game. New Rule Pagan cannot pitch against Tigers.