Trov

So you address 3 specific starters, Montas, Kyle Hendricks, I assume, and Nathan Eovaldi as 'ace' types we should target, and you say Joe Ryan is not one. Basically saying all three would slot ahead of Ryan. First, why do you rank them all ahead of him at this point? Is it because Ryan is a rookie and no long term track record? Also you say Berrios is not an ace, but a guy like him would be needed for the Twins, so going to look at him too. Maybe you are right that any of those guys would be the best starter. Montas, 9 starts, 50.2 innings, ERA 3.55 ERA+ 100, FIP 3.30, WHIP 1.007 9.8K/9 Hendricks, 9 starts 49.2 innings, ERA 4.89 ERA+ 84 FIP 5.52 WHIP 1.329 6.3K/9 Eovaldi, 9 starts 48.1 innings, ERA 4.10 ERA+ 99 FIP 5.51 WHIP 1.159 9.9 K/9 Berrios, 9 starts 47.1 innings, ERA 4.75 ERA+ 80 FIP 4.50 WHIP 1.437 6.7 K/9 Ryan, 8 starts 43.1 innings, ERA 2.28 ERA+ 159 FIP 3.24 WHIP 0.992 8.7 K/9 That is this season stats so far. I am using them because I want the pitcher they are now, not the pitcher they were before. Two of the pitchers are on the wrong side of 30 as well, which is when pitcher normally regress, so even if you look at career numbers, I would argue there is no reason to expect that. However, a quick snapshot of career WAR, I know not best to judge pitchers on but they are being compared to each other. Montas 6.5 in 5 full season, this being his 6th. Hendricks, 21.6 in his now 9th season, Eovaldi, 14.6 in his now 10th season. Berrios, 11.3 in his now 7th season. Ryan not even a full season is at 1.6, with 1.3 in his 8 starts this year. Judge how you will, but at this point I would say Ryan is the best out of all of them. Slightly less K/9 than Montas and Eovalid, but every other number Ryan is better on. Will it remain, maybe not. In terms of innings per start he is right on par with all of them too, but Berrios did have on start that went .1 innings. Now compared to other starters on our team would Montas be an upgrade, yes he would, but my point is that Ryan is doing just as well as any of the listed trade targets. Does he have the track record no, but even these guys outside of Hendricks none have a huge track record for a career. Hendricks though has dropped off his last 2 years being on wrong side of 30.

Who would you label as an 'ace'? What criteria makes someone an 'ace'? In this day in age, I bet you will be hard pressed to find what used to be an 'ace'. Also, do you expect the Twins to pitch someone of that capability that way? We have not seen the team run many guys out for even a 6th inning let along 7 or more. Maybe as the season goes on they would, but so far they are very much willing to pull guy after 6. Would you call Joe Ryan an 'ace' so far? Who do you think are available for a price the Twins are willing to pay in prospects that you would call an 'ace'? It is easy to say go get one, but the top teams that have them will not be trading them away most likely, because they will keep them. There are some good pitchers being talked about, but at least what I would say 'ace' none are in the talking points. I guess in part it will depend on what you define as an 'ace'.

I will agree you can always use more pitching. We have already used several starters in the first month plus of the season. Is Evaldi the right guy? As I say with all trades if the price is right. I would not give up much to get him at this point. He is not pitching well overall, but his history of doing so would give me some willing to use him. He would not be the first SP to fall off the cliff though in his early 30's. Lopez I would be willing to take on as well. He may be like many starters that when they get into that full time pen roll runs with it. Liam Hendriks comes to mind, along with many others. That being said I give up nothing major for him. Do not buy high on a guy that has never had long term success in the MLB. He has the possible stuff but for all we know this is SSS out of pen and as year progresses he falls apart. I wrote a long forum on the 1st base situation. I am not a fan of trading for anyone at this point. Bell would be a fine piece, but I think he is more smoke than fire. He is in his 6th year with a career WAR of 6.8. He only has two years of WAR above 1. Last year he did have a 3.1 WAR, and this year at .8. He could be an upgrade, but I think his numbers look a little more flashy than what his career has long been. He has also hit into 12 double plays this year. He has shown flashes of stardom in past only to have long stretches of poor hitting. His defense is average at best too. I would be worried we would be buying high on him when we have several possible options. Arraez has actually a higher OPS than Bell right now. Sure he has 3 less HR, and 3 less doubls, neither have a triple, but Arraez also has 50 less plate appearances and only 1 double play hit into. Yes, Bell has a better defense right now, but Arraez just started to play it, I would expect some improvement over the year if he stays there. Kirolloff may come back, or other guys could look to transition into it. My main point is, Bell does not appear to be the upgrade some will want, and if it means less playing time for Arraez overall, I am not a fan of it.

I feel June will tell us a lot about this team and if we are just an upper middle class team that will fade a bit or not. It is still hard to judge this team because we have pitched well, but not facing top offensive teams, so is it a product of who we are facing. We did hold Cleveland down who was one of the better offenses the first month though. However, our offense has not been clicking and dealing with injuries and slow starts I do have some optimism they will start to hit more when people get healthy and heated up. The main issue has been hitting with runners on base. It looks like the team may be heating up some on offense. Eventually the starting pitching will start to have some bumps and the pen will have some rough runs too. We just need to have the offense going when some of that happens.

I think Larnach is doing rehab in AA because they are much closer to where Twins will be this weekend that he may be getting called up and can take a 3 hour car ride instead of having to find a flight from Omaha. I hope he does come back and swinging like he was to be every day LF. I like Gordon overall, but Larnach is a much better hitter when swinging well. Good to see Lewis staying hot. I hope he starts to force the teams hand in next month. Balazovic is starting to worry me. I am glad we can take our time with him to get back to what he was, but this has been a stretch of not very good starts. SWR is not dominating as he was, but maybe starts like this are best for him. He was not dominating had runners on but did not give up a bunch of runs. I am looking forward to see him called up to AAA after break.

I have always liked him when healthy. I think he will need to stay on the 40 man now as he has shown enough that any team will be willing to snag him. I think he could be one that fills in during some injuries and showcases himself to either stick with team, or be a trade piece at deadline. I think now he is entering his prime he will have a couple of decent years. It was just we could not count on him at all after last year.

I think Kirilloff will need to show a sustained run of solid at-bats. I doubt is about the stat line, but how is his swing looking. All year at MLB level it was terrible with no good hard contact and everything into the ground. Even his hits were weak. With having some extra base hits maybe he is figuring out how to live with his writs, or maybe he just had a couple good games. I would give him another week or two before making in moves, unless there is another injury to someone at MLB level. We can use an offensive boost, but not so bad that we rush him back. Let him take the time figure out his swing again.

I fully agree that first is our biggest issue. Arraez has the general hitting ability, not the power you expect from first, but he lacks defense right now. Kiriloff may figure out the wrist issue, but if not I think they should look to bring in someone. Left is only an issue because no one has stepped in to be the every day guy, but rotating different guys has not been terrible. Every team can say they need more starting pitching. So far this year starting pitching has not been an issue, so to just assume it will be in the second half seems odd to me. Maybe it will, but to just say that it will be, when we have run 8 out there so far, down to 7 total healthy now with Paddock out, but we have internal options if some regress, get hurt. I would not agree we need to trade for a vet. I also disagree we need an ace to win in the playoffs. There are times an ace can make a huge difference, but rarely do they make the full difference, even more this day in age.

For the commenters that are attacking Roco on the decision to roll with Winder as their plan was to do so. Managing a 162 game season will have games where you send a guy out to save the rest of the pen. Winder has the ability to throw the pitches he did, it was not like he is exclusively pen guy that was getting stretched out. I am not saying it was the right move or the wrong move. The point is each move in a 162 game season impacts future games. You cannot play each game like it is a game 7. Now, if this was a playoff game and the comment was we had a plan and stuck with it, that is a terrible comment in must win games, you adjust to the game and do what you can to win that game. However, this was not a must win game. We will have many more wins and losses before the season ends. I do not understand the single game micro decision making people harp on. This is one of 162 and we have no clue if making a change to bring in someone else earlier would have changed the outcome of last nights game, but it would have affected who would be able to pitch todays game.

I long have been a supporter of Buck, but also stated he would not play a full season, as he never has. The contract he reached really accounts for his lack of health, and pays him more if he can stay healthy. It was actually a good contract for the Twins and Buck. When on the field he is worth one of the highest paid player in the game. However, we knew he would not play even 150 games a year. I also feel when he plays DH his value is dropped a ton as much of his value is on his defense. However, he is worth the contract as he will play about half a season each year. One comment on the counting stats versus antilytic stats. No one stat tells a full story. They need to always be taken into context. Also no stat predicts future outcomes either, they can only be compared to see if they are in line with expected results. I could go off for a long time about that issue, but I do agree WAR as a whole is best to look at as an overall looking at most stats, but it is not predictive either.

If Miranda did not look lost at the plate right now, and Lewis was not raking for a struggling offense I would be okay with the decision. However, right now we have little to no offense to speak of and Lewis has been on of the bright spots in that line up over his short time here. Sure, he may start to struggle, but I am not a fan of this move at all. If the reports are accurate he is going to play different spots down in AAA, it better be with a plan of bringing him back up after a couple weeks, but he really could do that at MLB level. With Miranda doing nothing at this level but staying up, when Lewis can play the exact same spots, it sends a poor message in my mind. It is not like Lewis hits have been lucky, he is hitting solid line drives, and even some outs were crushed.

The belief that an ace is needed to win in post season is such a myth. Yes, there are times that an ace does make a difference, but that is rare. We have gone to post season with an ace before and did nothing. Many teams have won the whole ship without an ace by most definitions. Remember when Oakland had 3 top pitchers and we had Brad Radke and a bunch of mid rotation guys? Radke was not an ace by most standards, and most likely would have been ranked 4th best pitcher in the series, the other three being all on Oakland rotation. Or remember how many series we won with Santana, who was an ace. Technically he was on staff in 2002, but was not in the playoff rotation. Now, I would agree if Lewis is showing that he can fully step in be the defender Correa is with the same level or better bat, and a team offers a long terms option top tier pitcher we should listen, because I still no believe Correa will be back next year. The problem you will have is that no team looking to take Correa in on a rental would be trading away an ace as they will want to keep them for their own playoff push. Only selling teams will trade pitching away, unless you are Cleveland that feels you can trade your top pitchers away because your pipeline is that strong.

I see no reason to send him down at this point. He could play 3rd, LF, or CF when Buck is resting. He could slide to 1B as well, or even get some DH at bats. I do not think Correa will need much rest when coming back because with way Lewis is playing I am sure they are not rushing him back. That being said they still give him a day off time to time. I think they can get Lewis plenty of at-bats and playing time up here. The only reason you would send him down is if you feel he needs more time to develop at SS on defense, but so far he looks good on that end too. If he starts to struggle at the plate you can send him down then, but Miranda should get the demotion when Correa is back not Lewis.

I get his missed 2 years of games, but in 2020 he was working at the alternate site I believe getting work in. 2021 the started getting work after the season ended. It is not like in game time is only time you can do work. He was a top talent for a reason, and he could still do things recovering from the knee injury. After about 3 months he was most likely jogging, after 6 months he was most likely back to full running and hitting. He could work on the mind part of the game when he was not working on the physical part.

It is not just Oakland being a bad team, but they told their fan base with the moves they made we are making no plans this year to compete. The fans told the team, that is fine we have no plans to attend games if you have no plans to put forth an entertaining product.

I do not give much weight to single game decisions during a season. Managers have two important roles. First, to get a team into the playoffs. A 162 game season is a grind that requires a manager that knows how to play the long game, sometimes giving up on a single game to save the bullpen in the long run. Once a manager makes the playoffs, that is when I will look at moves during the game. That is because each game matters. You cannot just take a loss or give away at bats to give guys rest or because it is time to give someone else some playing time. You play your top line up for each game and manage each game for the win. I was too young to really know how Kelly did it in the early years. However, I was old enough for Gardenhire and hated how he managed in playoffs. I am personally not a fan of the bullpen games in the playoffs. They can work, but if you have a pitcher that is cruising along and hitters are not doing much, I am not a fan of just pulling a guy because he is facing a third time through. First, that is a load stat. Even more so now that kind of because a self fulfilling stat. We find that a third time through a rotation normally is when guys start to struggle. Yes, that is true overall, but when you only get to face a couple of guys a third time now a days if they do give up a hit, it will be hard to get those numbers back down. In the regular season I am not too upset at those decision, but in the playoffs when each inning is important I am not a fan of pulling a guy after 4 or 5 innings just because they made it 2 times through order. As long as they still look good let them go out there. Maybe I am wrong and the Rocco way will work in playoffs. Overall I like him as a manager, but with the lack of power this year, I would love to see more base stealing.

His last few outings have been much better. No walks 3K's. He did give up a HR in a non save situation, ruled unearned runs, because of stupid rule of errors. However that HR did not cost us anything. Reports that he just added this pitch could clearly lead to some issues working on it leading to early walks. Also, the colder weather may not have helped much. I agree his walk rates were not sustainable for success, but no walks last three outings and reduced pitch counts of 9 and 10 the last 2 outings. If he can get the control issue resolved I would expect decent results.

For me the take away is the pitching is still good overall, and we need to start getting more hits with runners in scoring position. Other than Friday, which had the 2 big HR, we again struggled to get hits with runners in scoring position. I also had a take away that Urshella will drive me nuts all season while at same time I will be happy with some of his big plays. Yesterday he made 2 great plays on defense and hit a HR. However, his at bat with bases loaded on Saturday drove me nuts. So many things wrong with it. First, he check swung at a strike in the zone on the first pitch. Then to make matters worse, he jogged out of the box looking back to see how the play is developing only to then run harder when he realized they will try for a double play. Not saying he would not have still got the double play, but why look to see what the fielders are doing, run as hard as you can to first until you are out or told to run to second. It was like he either forgot there was bases loaded, or he just figured they would give up the run and toss to 1st. Similar in the series a Cleveland hitter busted down the line on a comebacker to Duran who made a bad throw. Hustle is one thing that every player should do. All you are doing is burning some cals.

I am not concerned long term. I think this is a good learning experience for Miranda and he should be able to learn from it. This is his first taste of MLB pitching. Much like a lot of young guys who struggle they need time to learn how the best of the best will pitch them. He made adjustments last year to become the prospect he did. I bet he works on this over the year. Not sure when he gets sent back, but he will at some point. Some guys take much longer to adjust to MLB level.

What I liked best about this game is that Ryan bounced back and changed up his pitch selection. The last two games he was walking guys and I think teams had adjusted to him not chasing pitches out of the zone. So he pumped fastballs in the zone telling teams he will adjust if they do. Then once he pumped a ton of fastballs in the zone, he started to mix in off-speed again. I agree with Justin when he said having a starter throw nothing but fastballs for like 20 pitches really messes with a hitters head. They keep thinking when is something else coming. It like in a multiple choice test, if each answer is the same letter, eventually you second guess your answer because no way would it always be B or whatever. Baseball is such a head game, and keeping hitters guessing will do that. I think Joe was trying to get ahead too much with off-speed then pitch the fastball ahead in count, I could be wrong but just feel like that is what he was doing the previous two games.

I have faith his natural talent will get him back, however, it sounds like he will have to learn to live with pain in his wrist. I do not know the pain and how bad it is, but I am sure it cause a slight difference in his swing. If he can learn to live with the pain and adjust to it and get back to making loud contact that will be great. However, it may just be he will never get back to what he was. Time will tell. I like that they sent him down to really work on it. Give him at-bats every game and let him learn to hit with the pain.

Baseball reference has him at 6-2 195. I do not think a guy needs to be tall to play first base, but it does not hurt if they are tall and flexible. As shown on a couple of plays yesterday, every inch on a throw counts. If a guy can make a couple extra inches stretch to get to the ball that can mean the difference between an out or a hit. Now as pointed out in the article, if he can make up for it by having greater range then it may balance out. I am not one that says you much be this tall to play 1st, but also being able to stretch on the base to a wider catch radius will help save some bad throws, but knowing how to jump off base and still get out can counter that too. Arraez needs to be in the line up hitting, so if playing him at 1st is the way to do it great. He made a couple of good digs yesterday. I am sure he never played 1st before in his life until the most recent two years. More time will result in better results hopefully.

Nice to see Kirilloff get 4 hits in 8 PA, with one walk. I hope they were actual line drives and not the weak contact he had been doing up here. I still have high hopes for him, but this wrist issue may take a long time for him to adjust.

I am always willing to try a guy out if the price is right. Not sure what any of these guys would cost the Twins prospects wise. Montez I am worried about his home road splits. He pitches much better in the pitcher park in Oakland than on the road. That would worry me. The other three have huge questions too. I could see any of them not panning out.

I am a little concerned with Balazovic early results. I get he is coming off of injury, but he has not done well so far. I know he can quickly bounce back but I still have some concern. SWR is not dominating as he was but really just giving up a grand slam is not terrible. I am not worried about him at all. I was hoping he would be forcing his way up to St. Paul be mid-season, and he still might. I need to remember he is still young for AA.