IndianaTwin

Likely! 😀 I knew it was one of the regulars. On the panel, it could have been Kalk -- I didn't take notes either. It was the session out of the weekend that I most wished someone could have reported on for TD, just because of the snapshot it provided into conversations like this.

Again, Kepler was dramatically platooned throughout his career. Here's his career numbers, and they don't change much on a year-by-year basis. If anything, they become more pronounced: The additional variable on the Wallner/Julien/Margot/Farmer piece has to do with options. The latter two didn't have one and help demonstrate why options can be so important, particularly with a four-man bench (effectively three, with the catcher). I've appreciated the way you've framed the roster makeup questions as they apply to platooning. I think the challenge you've described would be different with even one more bench position to play with, resulting in one fewer "full-time" player, let alone two or three more bench players. People have also highlighted Stengel, but he was working with an eight-man bench (if the roster was indeed 25 at the time -- I'm not sure). Teams then typically had only nine pitchers, and they weren't using a DH, so there were eight position players on the field and eight on the bench. It's easy to roster platoon advantages in that scenario.* *It's also easier to manage platoons at other positions when your roster includes Berra, Mantle, Elston Howard, et. al.

You called?

I don't disagree with your general premise, but I'm not sure using catcher is a fair example, since at catcher, they are much more committed to load management and letting him play the full game than they are to platoon differences (which makes sense, when you have two righty-hitting catchers). I do think you nailed what will be an interesting decision if Rodriguez forces his way to a promotion and the Buxton, Larnach and Wallner are all healthy and producing. May it be so! But even in that scenario, I suspect there will still be plenty of times when two of the lefties would have a day off as they try to sneak a few starts to another righty (say Martin or Helman) or switchy (Castro). And depending on health and the rest of the roster, there could easily be days when Buxton would be flanked by one of Martin/Helman and Castro. For example, it's not hard to imagine a day when the lineup (by position numbers, not batting order) is Vazquez, Miranda, Lewis, Lee, Correa, Castro, Buxton, Martin, with Jeffers at DH, leaving Larnach, Wallner, Rodriguez and Julien on the bench. If you don't want to imagine Martin in right, consider him hurt with either Helman or a low-budget signing there instead (playing the role Margot was supposed to be playing).

Actually, only 10 of Kepler's 88 starts this year were against lefties. That's 11.4 percent. By contrast, 6 of Wallner's 33 starts in right (18.2 percent) were against lefties. For context, opponents started a lefty in 46 of 162 games (28.4 percent) The percentage of starts vs. lefties isn't a full apples-to-apples comparison, because it doesn't take into account what the options were. Several of Wallner's starts came when Kepler was out for the year, which meant a weaker bench. You did hit the nail on the head in that Kepler's defense probably kept him in the game more often against a lefty. That 20.5 percent of his plate appearances came against lefties though only 11 percent of his starts did suggests that he hit against lefty relievers on a more regular basis. This would be a really small sample size, I'm sure, but it did seem that if either Kepler or Wallner came off the bench to face a righty (most often replacing Margot) and then came to the spot where he would be facing a lefty later in the game, Kepler was more likely to stay in the game and do that (partially for defensive purposes), whereas Wallner was more likely to get pulled for a second pinch hitter. My primary point, however, is to say that Kepler didn't grow into facing more lefties over the course of his career. If anything, he tilted in the direction of facing fewer lefties over time.

Actually, Kepler didn't work his way through facing lefties. I had that sense as well, but a week or so ago, I went back and looked at Kepler's splits, to see if we might expect a shift with Wallner and Larnach over time. Kepler's percentage of plate appearances against left-handed batters was pretty consistent throughout his career. This past year, for example, he only had 20.5 percent of his PAs against lefties. If anything, he moved further in the direction of platooning, since he's had 25.5 percent of his PAs against lefties over the course of his career.

One of the regulars has cited this law regularly, which is what made me track it down as well. Couldn't remember who, but I read your comment in that context. In a prior life, I was a sportswriter, so I was amused reading about it and recalling it when I see questions in headlines. He's not wrong.

If Correa, Buxton and Lewis combine for Fangraph's 1714 projected plate appearances, I'll take my chances with the rest of the roster.

I enjoyed being able to attend the SABR convention in Minneapolis this summer, and one of the highlights was a panel discussion that included Falvey. He talked a fair amount about lineup construction, his relationship with Rocco and how they work together. He talked about how they talk (at least) daily during the season, including very soon after each game. They talk about how the game went, strategic decisions and lots of other stuff. It was actually pretty interesting, and I mean that in a positive way. I don't remember that he talked as much about Rocco's input into roster construction, but I assume it's a both/and. They talk regularly (daily) about lineup construction, and Falvey is offering his input, but the buck stops with Rocco in making the final decision in making out the lineup card. I'm sure they are also talking regularly (likely also daily) about roster construction (or at least it's a backdrop to their lineup conversations), with Rocco offering his input, but the buck stops with Falvey in making the roster moves. And frankly, I think that's the way it ought to be. I'd much rather they be on the same page than differing, with Rocco using guys against Falvey's wishes and Falvey providing Rocco with players that don't fit Rocco's managing style and Falvey meddling with lineup decisions. That would be a disaster.

But, but, but... Betteridge.* *That is you that is always citing him, right?

That’s great. A few years ago, I went on eBay and Amazon and bought a couple of the books I read as a kid. You can usually find them for just a few bucks and it was fun to read them again.

That's an amazing story. What a gift to you -- both the ball and the phone call! I'm young enough that I never got to Oliva play in person. The 1973 season was the first I'm able to remember significantly and my first games at the Met weren't until 1977 (see No. 5). He does make it into the list in a few places, however. Explicitly, his HOF induction is in No. 32 and the collection of cards (and photo) in No. 38. Not explicitly, "O" was definitely for "Oliva" in No. 14 and in No. 7, I chose uniform No. 6 for my bat boy shirt. And of course, in the imaginary tennis ball games in No. 2, Twins games were almost always won with a two-out Tony O grand slam in the bottom of the ninth. But yes, I could have also included the memory of seeing him through batting practice on a back field in spring training (and the nice photo I got of him) and getting an autograph on my cap at a game at the Metrodome. When throwing the tennis ball against the house, I couldn't have a marked target, because the bushes were in the way. Not to mention that my mom wouldn't have approved of drawing it on the side that was facing the road. I did have one on the side of the barn, however, but I had to be strategic on when I used it. I didn't want my brother to see me and try to give me extra chores. 😀

Correa and Buxton first came up within a week of each other in 2015, about 60 games into the season. With a 60-game season in 2020, that means they'd both been on MLB rosters for almost exactly eight "full" seasons going into last year. During those eight years, Buxton averaged 84 games played and Correa 128. (And in actuality, Buxton had a couple stints when he was in the minors for performance reasons, not injury. Take out that combined minor league time and Buxton has averaged about 86-88 games per 162.) Last year Buxton played in 102 games and Correa 86. If Buxton is a regression candidate because of his health, since he played 14-18 games more than his historical average, isn't Correa more of a candidate for positive health regression for having played 42 games less than his average? Said another way, I don't mind if Correa's production level is a little less if he gives us the nearly 50 percent more games we might expect.

And so concludes my Golden Anniversary year. Not the Golden Anniversary of my birth. I’m a little way past that. And not the Golden Anniversary of my wedding. We’re a little way short of that. Rather, this past July 13 marked the Golden Anniversary of the Detroit Tigers beating the homestanding Kansas City Royals 8-3, in front of 25,834 fans. Woody Fryman was the winning pitcher, scattering 12 hits over nine innings. Future Hall of Famer and 3,000 Hit Club member Al Kaline was the only player in the Tiger lineup not to get a hit. By contrast, little-used left fielder Marv Lane had four of his career 37 hits that night. He also had his only career triple and both of his career stolen bases. For the Royals, Cookie Rojas plated both runs with an inside the park homer and Kurt Bevacqua and Hal McRae each had three hits. As MLB games go, it was pretty routine. But it was anything but routine for the eight-year-old kid sitting in Aisle 119, Row JJ, Seat 4, attending his first-ever big league game. How do I know there was a kid in that seat attending his first game? Because I still have the ticket stub. To celebrate this Golden Anniversary, I did two things this summer. First, I decided to go to three specific games to celebrate. I went solo to each of the three, which also provided time for reflection, as I thought baseball memories on the drive to and from. The first game was at new Comiskey in Chicago. Or call it U.S. Cellular, Guaranteed Rate, whatever. I chose new Comiskey because for a long time, that was where I went to games most often, often catching the Twins when they were in town. Ironically, I was standing a dozen or so rows back in the left field bleacher during batting practice, watching others clamor for balls hit into the stands. Some Twin staffer grabbed a ball and looked up in the stands. I suppose because I was one of the few people wearing a Twins shirt, he pointed at me and threw it in my direction. When I was a kid, I would have died for that to happen. ------------------------------- A second game was at Target Field, where I probably get to games most often these days. When by myself, I normally just get a cheap ticket and move down to an open seat over the course of the game. This time I actually found a $25 ticket for a seat in the Thrivent Deck. That got me a padded seat, extra concession stands (with shorter lines and more food options), a concourse with greater access to restrooms and the like and the opportunity to wander through a Hall of Fame of sorts, with memorabilia ranging from Harmon Killebrew’s high school basketball uniform to the gear Joe Mauer wore for his emotional one-pitch return to the catcher spot in the final inning of his final game and lots of other stuff. That game was topped off by crossing paths with my all-time favorite player as I was leaving. Tony Oliva is a regular at Twins games and was gracious enough to pause for a picture. ------------------------------- The game I particularly looked forward to was at Royal (now called Kauffman) Stadium. My first hope in looking at the schedule was to go on July 13, but the Royals were on the road. However, I was able to go on July 24. And here’s where it got extra cool. I wanted to recreate a picture from as close as possible to my seat from 50 years ago. When I looked for tickets, however, I discovered that the sections had been renumbered, so Section 119 was at a different location than it was in 1974. I found an email address and sent a message to the fan relations office, asking if they had a seat map from 1974, explaining why I was looking for it. A couple days later, one of their people sent a map with the old seat numbers. He even went further, going out to take several pictures from the seat in question and sending them to me. It was indeed the general angle I remembered. When I searched for a ticket near the seat in question, I was able to find one a row behind and a seat to the side, essentially a checkerboard move from one seat to the other. Then, the person in “my” seat went out to the concession stand just before the game started. I’d struck up a conversation with the family in that row, so I asked to hop into that seat for the opening pitch, taking things up a level. The glove is the one I had taken to the game so many years ago. The Marty Pattin autograph has long worn off. A couple days after my first email exchange, the Royals took it even another step further in their customer relations. A department manager wrote to ask which game I would be attending and where I would be sitting, saying they wanted to bring me a gift to commemorate the day. Midway through the game, what was probably an intern stopped by with a bag of goodies. She had bags to stop by other seats as well, but they had obviously raided the stash of leftover promotional items. For example, I got bobblehead was from a 2023 giveaway and the cap was what they had given to 2019 season-ticket holders. The picture frame was from when they hosted the All-Star Game in 2012. The best gift, however, was the t-shirt given away in 2018 to celebrate radio announcer Denny Matthews’ 50th year of broadcasting, but I’m choosing to see the 50 emblem as my own commemoration of 50 years. It’s fitting to have a broadcaster’s mic as well, since my love of baseball was incubated by listening to Twins on WHO-Des Moines. ------------------------------- The second thing I did was put together a list of at least 50 things or memories that capture and reflect the joy I’ve experienced following baseball. Not surprisingly, I blew past that number in a short time, so I consolidated a few on the list that follows. I’d welcome your commenting on any that resonate for you. Or that seem goofy enough to ask about. 1. Going to my first game in Kansas City. Dad and Mom weren’t baseball fans, but we were visiting my uncle in Kansas City, who got us the tickets. 2. Throwing a tennis ball against the side of the house for hours on end, playing imaginary games that always had the Twins winning. 3. Looking forward to Baseball Digest coming in the mail each month. Hoping each Christmas morning that one of my siblings would again renew the subscription as my present. 4. Winning the daily trivia contest on a local radio station several dozen times over a few years, getting two tickets to minor league games in Cedar Rapids each time. Cashing in the voucher for our box seat tickets, going down the steps to the concourse and then back up the steps to the seats, sometimes after turning right in the concourse to the souvenir stand, where a quarter could get the previous week’s copy of The Sporting News. 5. Going to the Rod Carew Game, a 19-12 Twins win over the White Sox in 1977, the year Carew flirted with .400 for much of the year. 6. Wearing the yellow t-shirt with my red Toughskin® jeans during Pee-Wee baseball and then the green pinstriped uniforms for Little League. 7. Being the bat boy for my brother-in-law’s slow pitch softball team, with my own team shirt with my name on the back. 8. Tying my bat on to my bike with baler twine and hooking my glove over the handlebar as I headed off to Vacation Bible School. I enjoyed the stuff we learned, but I have to acknowledge that the softball games before and after were bigger highlights. 9. My parents letting me drive six hours to a baseball game in Minnesota on my own, with my best friend and his brother. I don’t remember which summer it was and whether we were still in high school or had graduated. Going to a game while visiting the future Mrs. IT near the end of her year at Northwestern College in nearby Roseville. 10. Freezing our butts off on my first trip to Wrigley, during a May Term during college. I mean, it’s May at Wrigley — how could it not be shorts weather? 11. The community at Twins Daily, the best fan site there is for following the Twins. For being an online site, it has amazingly civil discussion (most of the time). 12. Playing fantasy baseball for 27 seasons. I don’t think I’ve finished last yet, but I haven’t won 24 of those years. 13. Going to a game with a dear friend, a loan officer, and talking just enough about his credit union so he could write it off as a business expense. Going to lunch with him just over 20 years ago to plan a weekend trip to St. Louis, Kansas City, Minnesota, Milwaukee and Wrigley, but having him not being able to go after he died so unexpectedly just a few weeks later. Taking a glove and ball to his grave when his Cubs made the World Series in 2016. 14. Not sure where to start in the list of memories related to IT Junior. Starting with teaching him the alphabet by saying that “A is for Aaron, B is for Bostock, C is for Carew,” we’ve covered a whole lot of geekiness since then. 15. Lots of memories with younger son (IT Sophomore?), including the joy of being one of his Little League coaches and sitting on a bucket as his catcher while he practiced pitching. I never caught a single inning in Pee Wee or Little League, but it was so much fun to have my own catcher’s mitt to use with him. 16. Weather — Blistering hot in St. Louis in July while taking the boys to their MLB first game at ages 6 and 3. Getting drenched during a rain delay in St. Louis on a later trip, using the giveaway insulated cooler as our “umbrella.” Blistering hot on a Saturday afternoon at Camden Yards in Baltimore. Freezing cold on a spring break trip to Chicago. Sweltering in the back of the upper deck at Wrigley. Lasting through a rain delay on a Sunday evening Twins blowout at Tiger Stadium, where the game ended with only about 100 fans in the entire outfield. 17. Ballpark nachos. 18. Served in a plastic helmet. Pretty sure that studies have shown that food is about 20 percent better when served in a plastic helmet. 19. Speaking of plastic helmets, collecting them as a high school student, wearing them all the time. I’m still not sure why they didn’t become a fashion trend. 20. Playing slow pitch softball in Iowa and Indiana, along with fast pitch in Indiana. Wow, did I stink at the latter. 21. Visiting all 30 major league stadiums. Redoing it when new stadiums opened in Atlanta and Texas. I’ve also been to 15 stadiums that have been closed. Haven’t decided how I’ll handle Sacramento next year. I’d have to count, but it’s probably about 20 minor league parks. 22. And lest 45 MLB parks seem impressive, what’s even more impressive is that Mrs. IT has been to 23 of the 30 current stadiums and a bunch of the closed ones! She doesn’t even like baseball, but it’s just one more reason why she’s a saint. 23. Putting together picture frames of pictures from all the parks, both for my office and for our home. 24. The 1987 World Series, with the Twins winning their first world championship. 25. The 1991 World Series, when the Twins won again. 26. Going to the public library to check out biographies and history books, particularly during oats combining season, when I would check out a dozen or so to read in the field while I waited for Dad to fill the hopper and be ready to dump in the wagon I was pulling. A lot of the biographies were from the adult section, and they used naughty words my parents wouldn’t have approved of. 27. Only realizing much later how much my thoughts about race were shaped by the biographies of Black and Latin players I read as a child, as they described the discrimination they faced, particularly in the minors. 28. All the Matt Christopher books I checked out from my elementary school library. And the My Secrets of Playing Baseball book by Willie Mays probably had my name on the card a dozen times. 29. Coming from school in the fall of 1973, checking the newspaper each day to see if Hank Aaron had hit another homer as he chased Babe Ruth’s record. Trying to figure out what the four columns of numbers in the box score stood for. Trying to figure out abbreviated names like “Ystrzski.” 30. Getting hooked on folk singer John McCutcheon’s music, particularly when I found there is actually someone writing intelligent songs about baseball. And then he did an entire album of baseball songs. And entire concerts of baseball songs. And I even contributed in a tiny way to his most recent song. The Hammer - April 8, 2024.mp4 31. Listening to as many Twins games as I could as a kid, including late night games from the west coast, all on WHO-Des Moines. Getting rebooked on baseball on the radio by listening to games on MLB Audio these days. 32. Going to the Baseball Hall of Fame several times, including for Kirby Puckett’s induction. Going to an induction for what will probably be the last time when Tony Oliva was inducted. Going to a bunch of other museums as well. The best of the others is the Negro League Baseball Museum in Kansas City, but there’s also been ones for Ty Cobb, Babe Ruth, Bob Feller (sort of — it’s now closed). 33. Developing a friendship with an MLB player, bringing him to church twice as a youth group fundraiser. Learning more about the business side of the game from the unique perspective he provides. 34. Field of Dreams, The Natural, Bull Durham, The Sandlot, Trouble with the Curve, Moneyball, A League of Their Own and all the great baseball movies I’ve seen. Putting together an All-Star team of movie characters — Billy Chapel on the mound, Roy Hobbs in right, Crash Davis behind the plate, etc. 35. Seeing Twins minor leaguer Royce Lewis interact compassionately with a bat boy with Down Syndrome. Total class. 36. The amazing speed of Byron Buxton. Joe Nathan doing his horse-like, “Pbbbbbt,” as he stood on the mound and prepared to throw a pitch. 37. All the players who gave autographs to my sons throughout the years. I always thought Nathan set the tone with Twins relief pitchers. If the leader of the pen was so willing to sign, how could the others not do the same? 38. Baseball cards — getting introduced to them by getting a pack from my brother. A pack with a Rod Carew, no less. Collecting them as a kid. Spreading them all over the floor with my best friend. Getting gifted my brother-in-law’s cards one year for Christmas. Best Christmas present ever! Knowing I traded away several Nolan Ryan and Reggie Jackson rookie cards over the years. Eventually completing the 1976 and 1979 sets, two years when I was particularly active. Recently completing a run of all of Tony Oliva’s cards, making a display in my home office. 39. Having a work travel schedule at several employers that have lent themselves to being able to tag a bunch of games on to work trips. 40. Going to the Field of Dreams movie site several times, playing catch with IT Sophomore, but also with a bunch of people I’ll never know. 41. Baseball-reference.com. Enough said. 42. Going to the Society for American Baseball Research annual conference. Twice. 43. Ballparks — practically the only time I eat peanuts in the shell. Other than when I go to Five Guys. 44. Touring a bunch of parks over the years, including standing atop the Green Monster. 45. Covering plenty of games as a newspaper reporter or sports information director, including games in several minor league parks and a couple of states and games with a future NFL player. Interviewing a couple of major leaguers who were on minor league rehab assignments. 46. Getting to throw out the first pitch at a high school game, to the young man in my church who I serve as a mentor for. 47. Keeping score. Seeing the passion IT Junior has for doing the same. Occasionally sending scoring questions to Stew Thornley, whom I’ve gotten to know through a unique set of circumstances. 48. Having the goofy dream of retiring to Rochester, Minn., spending my evenings selling Diet Coke in the bleachers at Target Field. Probably won’t happen. 49. Having baseball as part of my end-of-life plan. Seriously. I’ve told Mrs. IT and the boys that baseball enjoyment is one of my measures of incapacity. If there’s no likelihood that I’ll ever be able to sense/experience a baseball again, that’s one indicator that it’s okay to pull the plug. 50. When asked how she feels about going to all these games, hearing Mrs. IT say, “I don’t like baseball, but I like some people who like baseball.” See saint reference above. That statement has taught me so much about marriage. (If you’ve made it through all this, thanks for indulging me.)

These are more or less my thoughts in making the Paddack suggestion. I agree that having a potential trade partner inside the division makes it more complex. That said, of the Paddack/Vazquez/Castro triumvirate, I think Paddack is the one closest to redundant on the roster. If they do indeed need to cut some money, I think he's the best option to trade for an MLB pre-arb player such as Torkelson. I don't know if he is enough to get someone once as highly regarded as Torkelson, but it seems he has enough value to reduce the level of an accompanying prospect to trade.

When I saw this signing, I had the same thought regarding Paddack.

That was my thought. Without knowing how to compare their defense, it looks like Gasper is a clear upgrade on the hitting side.

Hyperbole much? Looks like Santana, Jeffers and Lee are the only three guys who started at least one game in each of those three spots over the course of the year, let alone three days in a row. Lee is only included because he led off once and hit cleanup twice, all three in a 10-day span soon after he came up, when they're trying to figure out how to use him. Santana hit eighth three times after mid-June, a time by which they'd figured out he was one of their most consistent players. Jeffers hit leadoff once after May 20, a time by which they'd figured the leadoff experiment didn't work.

This is one where it's a tricky comparison. The Blue Jays really only got 1.5 years of Berrios from the trade. They've gotten the rest by virtue of signing him to an extension. By virtue of having a year on his contract when they signed the extension, they had the exclusive ability to sign him, but the reality is they only had 1.5 years of guarantee from the trade. Frankly, I'd probably summarize this as one where both teams won, which is what ought to happen. The notion of every trade needing to have a "winner" and a "loser" is a fallacy. I think all in all, both teams are pleased with how the trade worked out.

Whether talking about people who haven't debuted or players in their Arb years, the articles about extensions don't seem to have acknowledged a key dynamic: A) If the "budget" truly is the magic $130M number that keeps getting bandied about and they are at $140M-ish, it makes little sense to hand out an extension that increases the 2024 budget. B) If any of these extensions do make sense for a FO taking the long-term view, perhaps this magic $130M number isn't so set in stone after all.

Curious what the team total is. The four positive values far exceed the five negative values. Also, only Larnach among the underachievers is above 350 in plate appearances, whereas Jeffers, Correa and Miranda are above 350, so if I'd weighted that calculation it would be more extreme. With the rest of the plate appearances going to guys very close to the mean, if this stat means anything, it would seem that the team likely overachieved a bit. EDIT to add: Castro and Santana, the leaders in PAs, were slight positives. Buxton and Lewis would have been the next guys listed on the positive list and Kepler was virtually even. Pretty sure a weighted average would have the team as a net "overachiever." (I'm just the messenger, folks.)

What would have been the reaction on TD (and elsewhere) if the FO didn’t give fans a heads-up last year about dropping the budget by $30 million and then did it anyway? I think the reaction would have been worse.

Chief silent anything? I doubt it.

Re: the part I bolded -- I agree. I posted a variation on this elsewhere and I'll keep saying it, a little differently this time. In an organization the size of an MLB team, "budgets" are better described as "spending plans." Organizations make adjustments all the time. For us on TD to make declarative statements that they have to get under x dollars is working with incomplete data. Unless I'm misremembering something, last year's decrease wasn't created by jettisoning players -- it was created by letting free agents walk. The only salary of substance that they traded was Polanco's, and they largely respent that immediately. Whether or not we agree (and I'm in the agree camp), they think they are close enough to contending that they aren't going to trade the big three. The alternatives are such that I don't see them trading Vazquez. Why eat salary and pay $5M for someone else? I could perhaps see them trading Paddack, but they have also shown a reluctance to go into a season with two rookies in the rotation. And given the price of pitching, I think they'll take the approach that when it comes to veterans, $7.5M on Paddack is as good of a risk as $4M on another Bundy. With the presence of a Lee and Martin, I think Castro is the closest thing to redundancy, and his $6.4M could be redeployed to a RH bat of some sort to play 1B or be an extra OF. To me, he seems the most likely to go. As to 2026, let's quantify it. Pay cut for Correa: $5M. FA losses: Vazquez ($10M), Paddack ($7.5M) and Castro ($6.4M). That quartet of changes is $28.9M. Topa's club option is for $2M -- either he's dropped at that price, or he's worth keeping. Tonkin will be 36 as he enters his S3 season and Stewart 34 entering his S2, so they are very possibly non-tenders. Again, if they are worth tendering, it's because they pitched well. So very likely $30M or more freed up. If that's not enough to cover increases for Ober, Ryan, Jax, Duran, Alcala, Sands, Jeffers, Lewis, Miranda and Larnach, that's a good problem to have.

Doc, thanks to both you and @chpettit19 for the responses. Where I pick up most is the phrase that I highlighted in your response. I've often made the point on TD that we as fans don't have all the info. However, we tend to read as gospel and inject a level of precision on comments that were made with vagueness and ambiguity. In reality, there is almost always a sense of responding to context. A couple of years ago, for example, I'm guessing the original budget didn't allow for a Correa signing, but when things played out the way they did, they found a way to make it work. While to (I'm assuming 😀) most of us on TD, a paltry $5M increase or decrease in our take-home pay is pretty significant, they are working with different levels of magnitude. At this level, for example, a $5M difference is about 4 percent -- not insignificant, but not necessarily insurmountable either. In that context, I'm with you in thinking that $5M SHOULDN'T make a difference. And I agree that if we could somehow guarantee that a $5M spend would lead to a Santana-like addition, that would be tremendous. So within the context of what we've heard, and to borrow a recent catch-phrase, I think there's a "non-zero chance" that the fuller message from (and I'd say "between," because these conversations almost always have some level of give-and-take) ownership to FO is something like, "Let's assure the fans we're not going to cut further. Last year we told them we planned to cut and it created backlash. I also don't want fans to assume we're going back up to prior years' levels, so a message like that heads off that idea. I don't want to increase significantly, and I'd prefer to keep it the same. Depending on how arbitration plays out,* we might have a slight increase. I'm okay with that, because I think we have a good roster. If possible, be creative and try to free up a little money. Depending on how much you free up, we could try sign a Santana-like person. Free up more and we can do more. And as always, if something comes along that you think blows us out of the water as an opportunity, let's talk. Meanwhile, could you ask Doris from HR to stop in? I've got some tough news for her." Overall, my plea to TD readers is to walk over to the bathroom drawer, find a tweezers and gently pull our shorts out of a wad**, recognizing that a) we don't have all the info, b) circumstances change, and c) things will play themselves out in ways that we don't yet know. *Using arbitration estimates is another area where we as fans ascribe a level of precision that simply isn't there. I appreciate that these estimates are generally in the neighborhood, and this year's players are generally on the lower end of the scale, so they are likely closer than if there were a bunch of studs in their S3 year. But they are still estimates. **And Doc and chp, that last paragraph isn't directed at you. I find you to be two of the more reasoned, thoughtful and helpful folks on TD.