Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

harmony55

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    185

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by harmony55

  1. harmony55
    MLB Network interviewed Derek Falvey on Tuesday:
  2. harmony55
    In a discussion about untouchables, it's interesting that many fans want the Twins to pursue Seattle righthander Logan Gilbert, who provides an interesting comp with Minnesota righthander Pablo Lopez. Over the past two seasons Gilbert and Lopez have each posted 6.1 bWAR in 64 starts, Gilbert in 376.1 innings and Lopez in 374 innings. Lopez held the edge in fWAR, 7.3 to 6.3. Lopez is guaranteed $73.5 million under the four-year extension signed in April. Gilbert, who is a year younger than Lopez, remains under team control for four arbitration years at a projected cumulative salary of $42.1 million. Because of the difference in guaranteed and projected salaries, Baseball Trade Values assigns Gilbert a surplus trade value of $65.9 million and Lopez a surplus value of $26.5 million. Yet many fans view Lopez as untouchable and Gilbert as attainable. Of course each team's surplus and needs would impact those assessments. Trivia: Pablo Lopez and Logan Gilbert each started their professional careers in the Seattle organization. In July 2017 the Mariners traded Lopez and three other prospects to Miami for reliever David Phelps. Yikes!
  3. harmony55
    Would Jorge Polanco represent a significant upgrade over Seattle's in-house options at second base (and third base)? Compare how Polanco stacks up in fWAR over the past two seasons: Polanco 3.3 fWAR in 184 games Luis Urias: 2.2 fWAR in 171 games Josh Rojas: 3.8 fWAR in 230 games Jose Caballero: 2.2 fWAR in 104 games (2023 debut) Dylan Moore: 2.8 fWAR in 171 games Seattle also has an intriguing second-base prospect in Ryan Bliss, who is projected to make his MLB debut in 2024 after posting these numbers this year split between Double A and Triple A in his age 23 season: 612 PA, .304/.378/.524/.902, 110 R, 23 HR, 86 RBI, 34 2B, 8 3B, 55 SB, 15 CS, 58 BB, 119 K A college teammate of Edouard Julien at Auburn, Bliss was the starting second baseman for the National League in the 2023 Futures Game before being sent to Seattle later that month in the Paul Sewald trade. Bliss was named Defensive Player of the Year in the Arizona Fall League where he slugged a grand slam in the championship play-in game. The Mariners are unlikely to trade a starting pitcher for Polanco.
  4. harmony55
    Here is a proposed Seattle trade with Tampa Bay if the Mariners sign Blake Snell: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/152515
  5. harmony55
    Baseball Trade Values gives Jarred Kelenic, Marco Gonzales and Evan White a collective trade value of a negative $3 million but Seattle reportedly will send cash to Atlanta. The Mariners likely are clearing salary to make a run at a free agent such as Seattle native Blake Snell, who reportedly wants to pitch for the M's. A Snell signing would free up the Mariners to trade a high-end starter for bats such as Randy Arozarena and/or Isaac Paredes. Max Kepler could be a short-term replacement for Kelenic but finding a match is not easy. So much for speculation.
  6. harmony55
    Any trade for George Kirby or Logan Gilbert would require the Twins to add substantially to package headed by Edouard Julien. Baseball Trade Values assigns surplus values of $91.1 million for Kirby, $65.9 million for Gilbert and $34.5 million for Julien. Seattle reportedly seeks a selective righthanded bat to reduce this season's high strikeout rate. Julien is an unlikely Mariner target with his lefthanded bat, 30+ percent strikeout rate and severe platoon splits. Brooks Lee, with a BTV surplus value of $48.1 million, would be a likelier target for Seattle.
  7. harmony55
    Seattle's dismal wRC+ of 83 from second base this year was largely attributed to Kolten Wong's woeful performance. The Mariners had a wRC+ of 72 from second base through July and 99 after the trade deadline acquisition of Josh Rojas. The M's have since added 26-year-old Luis Urias to the mix. Perhaps more telling is the fWAR of 2.1 the Mariners got from second base in 56 games after the trade deadline. This year Jorge Polanco posted 1.5 fWAR in 80 games while FanGraphs projects Polanco with as 2024 WAR of 2.4 in 141 games. The Mariners would trade a starting pitcher only to secure a clear upgrade.
  8. harmony55
    Would Jorge Polanco represent a significant upgrade over Seattle's in-house options at second base (and third base)? Compare how Polanco stacks up in fWAR over the past two seasons: Polanco 3.3 fWAR in 184 games Luis Urias: 2.2 fWAR in 171 gamesJosh Rojas: 3.8 fWAR in 230 gamesJose Caballero: 2.2 fWAR in 104 games (2023 debut)Dylan Moore: 2.8 fWAR in 171 games Seattle also has an intriguing second-base prospect in Ryan Bliss, who is projected to make his MLB debut in 2024 after posting these numbers split between Double A and Triple A this year in his age 23 season: 612 PA, .304/.378/.524/.902, 110 R, 23 HR, 86 RBI, 34 2B, 8 3B, 55 SB, 15 CS, 58 BB, 119 K Bliss was named Defensive Player of the Year in the Arizona Fall League where he slugged a grand slam in the championship play-in game. A college teammate of Edouard Julien at Auburn, Bliss was the starting second baseman for the National League in the 2023 Futures Game before being sent to Seattle later that month in the Paul Sewald trade. The Mariners are unlikely to trade a starting pitcher for Polanco.
  9. harmony55
    Logan Gilbert is not “known to be on the track block.” Reports are that Gilbert is coveted by many teams as a righthander under team control for four years after matching the production of Pablo Lopez over the past two seasons.
  10. harmony55
    Fun fact: Over the past two seasons Pablo Lopez and Logan Gilbert have each posted 6.2 bWAR in 64 starts, Lopez over 374 innings and Gilbert over 376.1 innings. Lopez holds the edge over Gilbert in fWAR, 7.3 to 6.3.
  11. harmony55
    Brooks Lee could be a long-term solution at third base for Seattle but the Mariners would need more to surrender a likely No. 2 starter in Logan Gilbert. Among pitchers over the past two seasons Pablo Lopez ranks 12th in fWAR with 7.3 in 374 innings over 64 starts while Gilbert ranks 18th with 6.3 fWAR in 376.1 innings over 64 starts. Over the past two years Lopez and Gilbert are tied with 6.2 bWAR.
  12. harmony55
    Brooks Lee could reunite in Seattle with righthander Bryan Woo, his college teammate at Cal Poly San Luis Obispo. While we're at it, Edouard Julien could reunite with promising Seattle second base prospect Ryan Bliss, his college teammate at Auburn. Baseball Trade Values accepts a trade of Lee and Julien for Logan Gilbert and catcher Harry Ford, the 39th-ranked prospect at MLB.com. Each team trades from its depth to address its needs.
  13. harmony55
    Would Jorge Polanco represent a significant upgrade over Seattle's in-house options at second base (and third base)? Compare how Polanco stacks up in fWAR over the past two seasons: Polanco 3.3 fWAR in 184 games Luis Urias: 2.2 fWAR in 171 games Josh Rojas: 3.8 fWAR in 230 games Jose Caballero: 2.2 fWAR in 104 games (2023 debut) Dylan Moore: 2.8 fWAR in 171 games Seattle also has an intriguing second-base prospect in Ryan Bliss, who is projected to make his MLB debut in 2024 after posting these numbers split across Double A and Triple A this year in his age 23 season: 612 PA, .304/.378/.524/.902, 110 R, 23 HR, 86 RBI, 34 2B, 8 3B, 55 SB, 15 CS, 58 BB, 119 K Bliss was named Defensive Player of the Year in the Arizona Fall League where he slugged a grand slam in the championship play-in game. The Mariners are unlikely to trade a starting pitcher for Polanco.
  14. harmony55
    Many Seattle fans contend the Mariners need a catcher if free agent Tom Murphy signs elsewhere. The Mariners face a balancing act of keeping Cal Raleigh fresh and rested while keeping his bat in the lineup nearly every day. Seattle's backup catcher should see significant playing time behind the plate while Raleigh serves as designated hitter.
  15. harmony55
    To cut payroll, would anyone trade Christian Vazquez and Edouard Julien to Seattle for six years of righthander Bryce Miller? Probably not but Baseball Trade Values calls the swap a fair trade with a minimal edge to the Twins. https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/151029
  16. harmony55
    Seattle is unlikely to be interested in a year and a team option of Jorge Polanco. The Mariners are unlikely to trade away Logan Gilbert or George Kirby for anything short of an equally impactful and controllable bat. Perhaps Seattle could offer a distant pitching prospect like the M's did years ago when the Mariners traded away Pablo Lopez and Freddy Peralta. ;-)
  17. harmony55
    And if Seattle could trade Bryan Woo or Bryce Miller for Edouard Julien that might be ideal for the Mariners (who are unlikely to trade George Kirby or Logan Gilbert).
  18. harmony55
    Seattle is unlikely to trade George Kirby or Logan Gilbert for anything short of an equally impactful and controllable bat. The Mariners would seek quality, not quantity. The Twins probably don't match up, especially if Royce Lewis is off the table.
  19. harmony55
    An astute contributor suggested a trade of Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler to Seattle for righthander Emerson Hancock and infielder Jose Caballero: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/147266
  20. harmony55
    The proposed Seattle deal is also the least realistic as the trade evaluator suggests. Any Mariner interest in Jorge Polanco dropped Friday when Seattle traded for Luis Urias, who is four years younger with a higher ceiling (but lower floor).
  21. harmony55
    Minor correction in my proposed trade of Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler to Seattle: This year infielder Jose Caballero posted an on-base percentage of .343, not .334.
  22. harmony55
    J,P, Crawford, a 28-year-old who this year tied Dansby Swanson for fourth among all shortsops with 4.9 fWAR, remains under contract for three more seasons at a bargain $31 million. As a point of reference, this year Edouard Julien topped Minnesota position players with 2.8 fWAR.
  23. harmony55
    Indeed the Seattle Mariners hope to improve on this year's team OPS+ of 106 and team ERA+ of 109. As points of reference the Twins this season posted a team OPS+ of 106 and a team ERA+ of 111. The Mariners will look to at least replace the team-average OPS+ of 106 posted by the departed Teoscar Hernandez. Baseball Trade Values provides only an calculated estimate that could be wrong ... in either direction. Regardless the Mariners are unlikely to trade Logan Gilbert to the Twins. Seattle would be reluctant to trade six years of righthander Emerson Hancock for a single year of Max Kepler or two years of Jorge Polanco.
  24. harmony55
    The Seattle Mariners likely think the simulator undervalues Logan Gilbert, whom the simulator until recently valued at $85.3 million. And the simulator might overvalue Brooks Lee (college teammate of Seattle righthander Bryan Woo) ... or not, The Mariners, who for each of the past three seasons have won more regular-season games than the National League champs and the Twins, hope to contend in 2024. With mainstays J.P. Crawford and Eugenio Suarez on the left side of the infield Seattle might not have room for Lee next season. That leaves the Mariners with the 2024 downgrade from Gilbert to Kepler. Not likely to happen.
  25. harmony55
    Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler to Seattle for righthander Emerson Hancock and infielder Jose Caballero If the Twins plan to reduce payroll, as reported, the Twins would save about $20 million in 2024 with a trade of short-term assets Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler to Seattle for six years each of two minimum-salary players. Righthander Emerson Hancock, the No. 6 pick in the 2020 draft, debuted this year with three respectable starts. Jose Caballero is a versatile infielder who in 104 games this year posted 2.4 bWAR, .343 OBP and a team-leading seven DRS with 26 stolen bases in 29 attempts. Baseball Trade Values calls the proposal a fair trade.
×
×
  • Create New...