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harmony55

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Everything posted by harmony55

  1. harmony55
    An unpopular comp for Royce Lewis would be Atlanta outfielder Jarred Kelenic, another former Top 6 draft pick who is 41 days younger than Lewis. MLB Trade Rumors projects Lewis and Kelenic with 2025 arbitration salaries of $2.3 million as Super Twos. Lewis has two years and 142 days of MLB service while Kelenic has two years and 169 days of MLB service. Lewis is coming off a season of 0.7 bWAR and an OPS+ of 107 in 82 games after posting 2.4 bWAR and an OPS+ of 149 the previous year. In his season before his trade to Atlanta, Kelenic had posted 2.0 bWAR and an OPS+ of 111 in 105 games. In Kelenic's trade to Atlanta, Seattle attached lefthander Marco Gonzales and first baseman Evan White, who were owed a combined $27.5 millon over two seasons. In return the Mariners received pitchers Jackson Kowar and Cole Phillips, lottery tickets who missed the 2024 season after TJS but who come with six years of team control. Baseball Trade Values recently assigned Lewis a surplus value of $26.3 million while a year ago assigning Kelenic a surplus value of $19.4 million even though at the time Kelenic had a year more of team control than Lewis currently has. What that means for the current trade value of Royce Lewis is difficult to determine, especially with Lewis' injury history. The Twins might well be better off keeping Lewis and hoping for the best.
  2. harmony55
    After this season Baseball Trade Values was probably accurate in downgrading the trade value of Royce Lewis and upgrading the trade value of Bryce Miller but the specific numbers are up for debate. BTV at least examines relevant factors: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/valuing-major-leaguers ... but different people can assign different weight to each factor. This Seattle fan sees the BTV value high on George Kirby and low on Luis Castillo but other fans can offer contrasting views. It's important to distinguish probability from prediction or projection. Baseball Trade Values reviews its accuracy periodically: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/articles/trade-deadline-analysis-how-did-our-model-do-1
  3. harmony55
    It's probably a year late for a trade of Royce Lewis for Bryce Miller as their stocks moved in opposite directions this season. A year ago Baseball Trade Values assigned Lewis a surplus value of $74 million and Miller a surplus value of $25.6 million. BTV recently assigned Lewis a surplus value of $26.3 million and Miller a surplus value of $49.4 million. FWIW Chris Paddack was assigned a surplus value of $13.3 million a year ago and a negative $1.6 million recently. Because of a lack of starting pitching depth, Seattle is unlikely to trade a starter from the current rotation. The Mariners can't count on getting 149 starts again from their top five starters. The only remotely feasible trade candidate from the Seattle rotation would be righthander Luis Castillo, whom the Mariners value far more than the negative $30.6 million assigned at Baseball Trade Values. Regardless, the Twins probably are not in a position to take on Castillo's roughly $24 million annual salary for three years. FWIW Baseball Trade Values assigns current surplus values of $111.4 million for George Kirby, $65.6 million for Logan Gilbert, $50.5 million for Bryan Woo and $49.4 million for Miller.
  4. harmony55
    Disappointing in light of high expectations. Over the past four seasons the Mariners have the league's fourth-best cumulative regular-season record but have landed a postseason berth only once, finishing one game behind the final Wild Card slot twice, and two games back once. Seattle should return the core of the club that was sixth in the league in run differential. The M's can't expect to repeat the durability of this year's starting rotation but hope for healthy returns of relievers Matt Brash, Gregory Santos and Gabe Speier. This year the Mariners posted a team wRC+ of 104, including a league-leading wRC+ of 118 after August 15. Like most teams, Seattle would welcome improved hitting but the M's are not starting at the bottom of the barrel. Thanks for asking.
  5. harmony55
    Last offseason at least one Seattle fan thought Jorge Polanco might not represent an upgrade at second base:
  6. harmony55
    Mitch Haniger is not a free agent. Seattle woud give away Haniger, who has one year and $15.5 million remaining on his contract: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/_/id/18487/mitch-haniger The Mariners probably don't want to commit a roster slot to Haniger behind their outfield of Julio Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena, Victor Robles and Luke Raley, with Mitch Garver as designated hitter.
  7. harmony55
    Thank you for the thoughtful response. FWIW Spotrac assigns 27-year-old Cal Raleigh a market value of $193,904,176 over eight years for an AAV of $24.2 million: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/market-value/_/id/26119/cal-raleigh Spotrac ranks Ryan Jeffers third in market value among catchers: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/market-value/_/id/26082/ryan-jeffers
  8. harmony55
    In its valuations, Baseball Trade Values considers relevant factors that some fans overlook. But it's not perfect. We all bring our own biases when we question BTV valuations. Baseball Trade Values recently assigned Seattle catcher Cal Raleigh a surplus value of $19.8 million. Raleigh plays a premium position. Over the past three seasons Raleigh topped all catchers with 13.9 fWAR, valued at $111.4 million. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&month=0&ind=0&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2022&season=2024&pos=c $111.4 million https://www.fangraphs.com/players/cal-raleigh/21534/stats?position=C#value Raleigh, who turns 28 years old next month, has three seasons of team control with a projected 2025 salary of $5.6 million. The past three years Raleigh's home run production has increased from 27 to 30 to 34 playing his home games in a pitchers park. The relevance of RBI has been questioned because of the stat's dependence on factors outside the hitter's control. Still, Raleigh drove in 100 runs this year on a club that for much of the season struggled to score runs. Perhaps the BTV valuation overlooked Raleigh's defensive skills that have been credited for the success of the Seattle pitching staff. Raleigh, who led MLB in innings caught, may receive a value boost from his recent Gold Glove nomination. The Mariners would be more likely to trade a starting pitcher than trade Raleigh.
  9. harmony55
    Are there any credible follow-up studies of Target Field's economic impact, positive or negative? Sometimes public funding results in a return on the government's investment ... sometimes not
  10. harmony55
    Would anyone trade Eduoard Julien to Seattle for his one-time SEC rival, righthander Emerson Hancock, who is a month younger than Julien? https://georgiadogs.com/sports/baseball/stats/2019/auburn/boxscore/16885 Each has lost luster after spending much of 2024 in the minors.
  11. harmony55
    Cal Raleigh couldn't let fellow catcher Ryan Jeffers outdistance him. The switch-hitter's bomb was Raleigh's fifth this year from the right side, exceeding last year's total when 26 of his 30 homers came from the left side.
  12. harmony55
    January's discussion of Seattle's need for Jorge Polanco in light of a Mariner roster that already included Josh Rojas and Luis Urias: https://twinsdaily.com/forums/topic/65825-mariners-still-looking-for-additional-infielder/page/2/#comment-1355123 Polanco may represent an upgrade in the end but to date Polanco has posted an OPS+ of 90, Rojas an OPS+ of 200 and Urias an OPS+ 114. Polanco has posted an fWAR of 0.1 in 34 games, Rojas an fWAR of 1.3 in 26 games and Urias an fWAR of 0.3 in 20 games. We should witness a great four-game series between two clubs poised for the postseason.
  13. harmony55
    Exactly. FWIW only twice in his career has Jorge Polanco posted a March/April wRC+ above his current 87: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jorge-polanco/13152/splits?season=0&position=2B/SS&split=2.1#Advanced
  14. harmony55
    It's early. Drawing ill-advised conclusions from the early small samples, Seattle probably doesn't need Jorge Polanco given the current wRC+ of 168 and 137 from Mariner 2B/3B Josh Rojas and Luis Urias. The Twins probably need a starting pitcher more than the Mariners need an infielder.
  15. harmony55
    During the offseason some fans thought 24-year-old Seattle righthander Emerson Hancock would be an insufficient return in a trade of Jorge Polanco. With righthander Bryan Woo on the injured list, Hancock has stepped into the Mariner rotation with an ERA of 5.06 in five starts, including a start of eight earned runs over 3.1 innings. In his last three outings Hancock has posted three quality starts with an ERA of 2.00, 12 strikeouts and only three walks over 18 innings. Hancock, the No. 6 pick in the 2020 draft, would have come with six years of team control in a trade last offseason.
  16. harmony55
    Jorge Polanco should rebound from the .208 BABIP that has contributed to his disappointing start to date. The Mariners have not missed Justin Topa and Anthony DeSclafani even though injuries have kept Matt Brash, Gregory Santos and Bryan Woo off the mound this season. An optimal trade benefits each team. The Polanco trade may accomplish that.
  17. harmony55
    FWIW Dallas Keuchel is off the board after reportedly signing a minor league contract with the Seattle Mariners: https://twitter.com/DKramer_/status/1775311169148031235?s=20 Keuchel could provide depth behind righthander Emerson Hancock, the Bryan Woo replacement who looked solid Monday in his first start.
  18. harmony55
    At my fantasy auction I won a bidding war for Bailey Ober, who went for twice his projected value.😒
  19. harmony55
    Seattle is already developing the next Justin Topa, a 33-year-old journeyman the Mariners traded high on. Righthander Tyson Miller may top the candidates from the organization's deep bullpen depth. https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/mariners
  20. harmony55
    Another speculative scenario: Seattle certainly would have preferred to trade only Justin Topa, Anthony DeSclafani, Darren Bowen and cash for Jorge Polanco. The Twins likely held out for the inclusion of Gabriel Gonzalez and the Mariners eventually caved.
  21. harmony55
    The Mariners may have aimed high for Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler but, unwilling to surrender Bryce Miller, settled for Polanco alone. The consummated trade could help both teams.
  22. harmony55

    Budgeting in Baseball

    harmony55 commented on Paul D's blog entry in Paul Danesi

    Thank you, Paul Danesi, for the analysis. An MLB team is no different than most closely held corporations that do not "open the books for full transparency." However, one could argue that governments should require financial transparency of any sports team (or any private entity for that matter) that seeks public assistance. Fans typically follow sports teams as a hobby; the owner of a sports team (or any private enterprise) customarily runs a business for profit. If a consumer does not like a product the consumer can instead buy a better product. Major League Baseball, with its antitrust exemption, curtails the marketplace by limiting the number of its franchises. The antitrust exemption may or may not place a higher obligation for public disclosure of finances. The topic yields no easy answers. https://ecampus.oregonstate.edu/soc/ecatalog/ecoursedetail.htm?termcode=all&coursenumber=450&subject=FIN
  23. harmony55
    The Seattle Mariners signed international right handers Pablo Lopez in July 2012 and Freddy Peralta in April 2013. Lopez, has posted 9.7 fWAR in 476.2 innings over the past three seasons while Peralta, who is three months younger than Lopez, has posted 9.0 fWAR in 388 innings over the past three seasons. Health has given Lopez a slight edge.
  24. harmony55
    WAR is not a great measure for relievers, but last year the Seattle Mariners ranked sixth in bullpen fWAR with 5.7 in 548 innings while the Twins ranked 21st with 3.2 in 556.1 innings: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2023&month=0&season1=2023&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&stats=rel&sortcol=20&sortdir=default&pagenum=1 Nevertheless the FanGraphs Depth Charts project the Twins bullpen second in 2024 WAR with 4.7 in 560 innings while projecting the Mariner bullpen 12th with 3.2 in 547 innings: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=RP Blame it on Justin Topa.😁
  25. harmony55
    Lindsey Hill, the first public accuser, made allegations outside of court before Trevor Bauer filed a civil suit and Hill responded with a countersuit. Bauer countersued a different woman who initiated a civil suit: https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/37853562/trevor-bauer-faces-another-sexual-assault-allegation-countersues-fraud https://apnews.com/article/trevor-bauer-sexual-assault-new-allegation-d9dba30c182e13dbf27f57db312c9fd1
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