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In the 2017 preseason prospect rankings, Baseball America, MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus ranked Kyle Lewis No. 34, No. 29 and No. 70, respectively, even though Lewis had torn his ACL and undergone surgery the previous year in his first minor league season.

As consistently stated, the Twins would be unlikely to trade Royce Lewis for Logan Gilbert. Royce Lewis, the No. 1 pick in the 2017 draft, and Kyle Lewis, the No. 11 pick in the 2016 draft, have each undergone multiple knee surgeries. They share more than their last names. Royce Lewis indeed had 519 at-bats in 127 games in 2019, the same year Kyle Lewis had 528 at-bats in 140 games. Royce Lewis posted 2.4 fWAR in 58 games last year after a 12-game MLB debut the previous season. In 2020 Kyle Lewis posted 2.0 fWAR in 58 games after an 18-game MLB debut in 2019. The past three seasons Royce Lewis has averaged just shy of 40 games a year across all levels; Kyle Lewis has averaged just shy of 60 games a year across all levels. The Seattle Mariners traded Kyle Lewis to Arizona in November 2022. This offseason the Diamondbacks nontendered Lewis despite his .371/.457/.641/1.098 line in 293 plate appearances last year at Triple A Reno. Because of his injury history, Royce Lewis has a wider range of possible outcomes than a player with no injury history. Lewis could become the All Star we all hope for ... or fall far short. Thank you for the feedback.

According to Baseball Trade Values, Jorge Polanco's value relative to a starting pitcher would be four years of Kansas City left hander Daniel Lynch IV, a 2018 first-round draft pick. BTV assigns surplus trade values of $9.4 million for Polanco and $9.3 million for Lynch. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/daniel-lynch-iv-663738?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb The 27-year-old Lynch, a former Top 30 prospect, remains on the Royals' 40-man roster although Roster Resource lists Lynch at Triple A Omaha: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/royals Perhaps the Minnesota pitching lab can develop Lynch ala Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober and Chris Paddack. The Twins currently lack a lefthanded starter if Kody Funderburk doesn't count. Lynch missed the last 10 weeks of the 2023 MLB season with a concerning shoulder injury but after one start in the Arizona Fall League pitched well in the Dominican Winter League: https://www.mlb.com/news/daniel-lynch-iv-royals-2024-rotation-competition A Red Sox website featured Lynch last week: https://www.overthemonster.com/2024/1/17/24037290/red-sox-smash-or-pass-daniel-lynch-trade-rumors-analysis An intradivision trade is not realistic because the likely noncontending Royals won't want to assume the $11.25 million guaranteed for a year (or two) of Polanco. However, the comparison is provided as an example of Polanco's worth in starting pitching.

Other perspectives on Bailey Ober and Logan Gilbert: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?pos=&stats=pit&type=steamer https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&type=8&season=2023&season1=2023&ind=0&qual=140&pagenum=2&pageitems=30

The chances are nearly nil that the Seattle Mariners would be willing to trade Logan Gilbert for Royce Lewis. However, the discussion has been thought-provoking. Thank you.

FanGraphs and Steamer project a healthy Jorge Polanco with a 2024 WAR of 2.5 in 609 and 622 plate appearances, respectively, after Polanco averaged 394 plate appearances the past two seasons. A healthy Polanco has value but his guaranteed $11.25 million salary may limit his surplus value. Much of the risk with Polanco rests with his health.

One could argue that the injury concerns more than compensate for the one-year difference in team control. Since 2019 Royce Lewis has played in only 118 games across all levels. Logan Gilbert has not missed a start since making his MLB debut in May 2021. The fan morale issue has some validity.

A projection of 135-140 games a year for Royce Lewis is optimistic for a player who since 2019 has played only 118 games combined across all levels. Lewis' fortunes depend largely on good health.

Keeping the theme in mind, just for kicks would anyone trade Royce Lewis for Seattle right hander Logan Gilbert? Gilbert and Lewis provide an interesting comp although neither team would likely sign off on a one-for-one trade. Gilbert comes with four arbitration years of team control with a set 2024 salary of $4.05 million. Lewis has five years of team control including four likely arbitration seasons. Baseball Trade Values currently assigns Lewis a surplus value of $74 million and Gilbert a surplus value of $65.9 million. Less than two months ago, on November 25, BTV gave Lewis a value of $44.2 million and Gilbert a value of $73.9 million. The BTV volatility raises questions about how MLB front offices value the two players. Gilbert's value comes from his durability. The 26-year-old right hander has not missed a start since his MLB debut in May 2021, taking the mound every fifth game, totaling 88 starts. In contrast, Lewis has missed 245 days to injuries in the last two seasons alone. The former No. 1 draft pick has stellar minor league stats and has impressed in a small sample of 70 MLB games. We all wish the 24-year-old Lewis good health but his injury history could raise a red flag for a potential trade partner. Seattle might shy away from a hitter named Lewis who has undergone two knee surgeries. Kyle Lewis had played 76 MLB games when the Mariners' 2016 first-round draft pick was named 2020 AL Rookie of the Year in his age 24 season. Kyle Lewis remains unsigned after being nontendered by the Arizona Diamondbacks in November. The unlikely trade would fill long-term needs of each club. Jose Miranda could handle third base until Brooks Lee is ready. The Mariners would shave about $3.4 million from their 2024 payroll but probably would not secure enough savings to pursue a free agent replacement for Gilbert in the Seattle rotation. Again, just for kicks. Thoughts?

Spotrac assigns Aaron Hicks a market value of $911,143: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/baltimore-orioles/aaron-hicks-12148/market-value/ At that price Hicks may be worth a flyer. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/aaron-hicks-543305?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb https://www.fangraphs.com/players/aaron-hicks/5297/stats?position=OF

The Seattle Mariners are unlikely to trade Logan Gilbert for a package just as the Twins are unlikely to trade Royce Lewis for a comparable package. Gilbert and Lewis provide an interesting comp although neither team would likely sign off on a one-for-one trade. Gilbert comes with four arbitration years of team control with a set 2024 salary of $4.05 million. Lewis has five years of team control with four likely arbitration seasons. Gilbert's value comes from his durability. The 26-year-old right hander has not missed a start since his MLB debut in May 2021, taking the mound every fifth game, totaling 88 starts. In contrast, Lewis has missed 245 days to injuries in the last two seasons alone. Lewis has stellar minor league stats and has impressed in a small sample of 70 MLB games. We all wish the 24-year-old Lewis good health but his injury history could raise a red flag for a potential trade partner. Seattle might shy away from a hitter named Lewis who has undergone two knee surgeries. Kyle Lewis had played 76 MLB games when the Mariners' 2016 first-round draft pick was named 2020 AL Rookie of the Year in his age 24 season. Kyle Lewis may be out of baseball today.

FWIW Among American League catchers, Seattle's Cal Raleigh posted the second-highest fWAR at 4.7 to Ryan Jeffers' 2.7: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=all&type=8&season=2023&month=0&season1=2023&ind=0&pos=c&qual=20

Welcome to the world of Jerry Dipoto with a lower case p. The post lives up to the namesake's sloppy reputation. Logan Gilbert agreed to a 2024 salary of $4.05 million as a Super Two. Because of roster needs the Mariners would be unlikely to trade one year of 33-year-old right hander Anthony DeSclafani at $12 million for one year of Jorge Polanco at a guarenteed $11.25 million (with an option for two years at $22.5 million). Warm regards, Seattle Mariner fan since 1995

Seattle is likely to make only minor changes to its current lineup; https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/mariners The chances of the Mariners unloading Logan Gilbert are nearly nil.

Wishing you a full recovery.

Two Seattle podcasters (Marine Layer Podcast) say the Mariners should give away the $12 million contract of righthander Anthony DeSclafani and then pursue Cy Young winner Blake Snell, who reportedly wants to pitch in Seattle.

And his name is Jerry Dipoto with a lower-case p. In a world where Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas, Jack Flaherty, Seth Lugo and Lucas Giolito land AAV salaries of at least $14 million, Scott Boras is unlikely to have James Paxton sign for less than $10 million annually.

The Mariners are unlikely to shop Anthony DeSclafani, who provides depth behind the Seattle's well-regarded rotation. In terms of depth, Seattle has effectively swapped out one year of nine-year MLB veteran Marco Gonzales at $12.25 million for one year of nine-year MLB veteran Anthony DeSclafani at $12 million.

Bulk is the hot commodity among starting pitching. Last year the Seattle Mariners got at least 190 innings each from Luis Castillo, George Kirby and Logan Gilbert. This week Seattle general manager Justin Hollander said projected starters Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo are on track to take the 2023 route of Kirby and Gilbert with no innings restrictions: https://twitter.com/thejagepage/status/1744931773190918638/photo/2 Of course, injuries or poor performance could require a change of plans. Nevertheless, high bulk gives a team more flexibility, not only with a pitching staff but with an entire roster.

FWIW Baseball Trade Values assigns a value of a negative $1.2 million for one year of Kyle Farmer with a projected 2024 salary of $6.6 million and assigns a value of a negative $1.1 million for one year of Anthony DeSclafani with a guaranteed salary of $12 million. The Mariners probably need DeSclafani as rotation depth more than the M's need Farmer as infield depth. Some Seattle podcasters remain high on Jorge Polanco as a Mariner trade target. Diverse opinions are always welcome,😁 The podcasts have also mentioned Donovan Solano or Willi Castro as potential Seattle acquisitions. San Francisco third baseman J.D, Davis remains another possibility, especially if the Giants manage to sign Matt Chapman. Davis has a career OPS+ of 113 while Polanco, who is 10 weeks younger, has a career OPS+ of 111. Davis is projected with a 2024 salary of $6.8 million in his final year of team control while Polanco is guaranteed $10.5 million in 2024 and a $750,000 buyout of a $12 million team option for 2025. Baseball Trade Values assigns Davis a surplus value of $7.4 million and Polanco a surplus value of $9.4 million. Neither Davis nor Polanco has a good defensive reputation. Last year Davis received conflicting scores in 915.2 innings at third base with five Outs Above Average (OAA) and four Fielding Runs Prevented (RAA), but a negative 11 Defensive Runs Saved and a 0.8 UZR/150. The Mariners and Giants are frequent trade partners and the M's might prefer the lower cost of Davis over Polanco. Or neither.

Over the past two seasons Jorge Polanco has posted 3.3 fWAR in 184 games while Josh Rojas has posted 3.8 fWAR in 230 games, including 1.2 fWAR in 46 games with the Mariners. Seattle has tendered contracts to Luis Urias with a projected 2024 salary of $4.7 million and Rojas with a projected 2024 salary of $3.5 million. Dylan Moore is guaranteed $6.565 million over the next two seasons, including $3.05 million this year. The Seattle roster does not have a slot for the $11.25 million guaranteed Polanco, who trails Rojas in fWAR over the past two seasons. The Mariners are unlikely to cut (and eat the salary of) Urias, Rojas or Moore to make room for a 30-year-old infielder who has not posted a season of 2.0 fWAR since 2021. Urias and Rojas each have one option remaining but are unlikely to be sent to the minors. The value of the venerable Polanco may well be with the Twins.

The 2023 team OPS+ of 106 and 106 were offered in that context only to show that the Mariners and Twins were similarly productive last year, https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2023.shtml

Jorge Polanco might have the edge in a standard-format fantasy league that counts only hitting stats to the exclusion of other contributions. The Mariners don't play in a fantasy league. Seattle can't afford to devote another roster slot (and $11 million) to Polanco when the Mariners already have Luis Urias, Josh Rojas and Dylan Moore on the roster,

Cory, https://www.milb.com/player/sam-carlson-672277 Team Date Transaction January 3, 2024 RHP Sam Carlson assigned to Nashville Sounds. November 30, 2023 Milwaukee Brewers signed free agent RHP Sam Carlson to a minor league contract and invited him to spring training. November 6, 2023 RHP Sam Carlson elected free agency.

Seattle indeed acquired low on Luis Urias and Josh Rojas with their disappointing 2023 seasons. However, Urias and Rojas were full-time players the two previous seasons, combining for 2,102 plate appearances, Urias with an OPS+ of 111 and 4.4 fWAR and Rojas with an OPS+ of 106 and 4.5 fWAR. Rojas posted an OPS+ of 103 with 1.2 fWAR in 46 games after his July 2023 trade to Seattle. Pitching is Seattle's strength but the Mariners also return the position core of Julio Rodriguez, J.P. Crawford and Cal Raleigh, who last year combined for 15.5 fWAR. Roster Resource's current Seattle lineup has only one starter -- Josh Rojas -- with a projected wRC+ below 100. https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/mariners The Mariners hope to improve in last year's team OPS+ of 106 just as the Twins would like to improve on their 2023 team OPS+ of 106.