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harmony55

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Everything posted by harmony55

  1. harmony55
    The Mariners reportedly had coveted Jose A. Ferrer since the left-hander was 19 years old in 2019: https://www.mlb.com/news/jose-a-ferrer-was-longtime-mariners-trade-target Seattle is in a win-now mode and hopes Ferrer will contribute more to the 2026 club than Ford would have.
  2. harmony55
    Oakland AIs? The Ballers will be first professional sports team managed by AI: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6599707/2025/09/05/artificial-intelligence-baseball-manager-oakland-ballers/?source=athletic_user_shared_article_copylink&smid=url-share-ta
  3. harmony55
    Harry Ford alone could not land MacKenzie Gore but a packaged headlined by Ford would be attractive to the Washington Nationals, who this year finished dead last in team WAR from the catcher slot (and a long ways from the 28th-place club). https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?lg=all&qual=0&season=2025&season1=2025&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=&filter=&players=0&type=8&month=35 The top-ranked catching prospect in a weak Washington farm system is Caleb Lomavita at No. 11. FWIW I've seen Lazaro Montes and Jonny Farmelo (and Harry Ford) play frequently. I apparently saw Caleb Lomavita play in college😉: https://calbears.com/sports/baseball/stats/2024/stanford/boxscore/36002 https://calbears.com/sports/baseball/stats/2022/utah/boxscore/33528
  4. harmony55
    Would Seattle be interested in Emmanuel Rodriguez when the Mariners already have outfield prospects Lazaro Montes and Jonny Farmelo, the 29th- and 75th-ranked prospects at MLB.com? Rodriguez is currently ranked No. 69. Baseball America had these outfield rankings in August: The Mariners already have a center fielder who has posted 22.9 bWAR before his 25th birthday. In any trade of Harry Ford, Seattle would likely seek MLB-level talent, perhaps left-hander MacKenzie Gore of the Washington Nationals, who this year finished dead last in WAR from the catcher slot.
  5. harmony55
    The Mariners selected Alex Jackson with the sixth overall pick in the 2014 draft, the penultimate draft before Jerry Dipoto arrived in Seattle: https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/index.fcgi?year_ID=2014&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg&query_type=year_round Dipoto traded Jackson to the Atlanta Braves in November 2016: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jacksal02.shtml#all_transactions_other
  6. harmony55
    That would be five years of 24-year-old Brooks Lee, with 2026 projections of 2.1 WAR and a 96 wRC+ in 139 games, for six years of 22-year-old Harry Ford with 2026 projections of 1.0 WAR and a 98 wRC+ in 70 games. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/brooks-lee/31595/stats?position=3B/SS https://www.fangraphs.com/players/harry-ford/29958/stats?position=C Each plays a premium position but with a wealth of infield prospects Seattle would likely seek a better return. FWIW this year the Mariners ranked 13th in team WAR at third base and 17th in team WAR at second base (ahead of the Twins in each category).
  7. harmony55
    Does Eduardo Tait have a higher ceiling than Harry Ford? A higher floor? Seattle has outfield depth as well and the Twins would be hard-pressed to offer a clear upgrade to the Mariners' incumbent right fielders.
  8. harmony55
    Poor defense cost the Mariners this season. A step down from Ben Williamson to Royce Lewis could be tough: https://www.fieldingbible.com/drs-leaderboard/players?position=5 The Mariners might have interest in Mick Abel or Taj Bradley but a Seattle trade package for either pitcher and Lewis is difficult to compile.
  9. harmony55
    🙂 Mild interest in Royce Lewis with a FanGraphs projection of 2.6 WAR in 131 games and a projected arbitration salary of $3 million. However, might prefer a return of Mariner third baseman Ben Williamson with his projected 1.8 WAR in 130 games at a league minimum salary.
  10. harmony55
    Baseball Trade Values currently assigns Seattle catcher Harry Ford a surplus value of $21 million: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades?page=1&q=harry+ford The Mariners have more pressing needs at other positions given the pending returns of Julio Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena, Dominic Canzone, Luke Raley and Victor Robles to the outfield.
  11. harmony55
    please delete
  12. harmony55
    This season Seattle has started Randy Arozarena in left field in all but four games. The 2025 All Star remains under team control for one more year.
  13. harmony55
    This year Harry Ford has played zero games in the outfield (and only 8 of the 273 games in his minor league career). This season Ford has played 61 games at catcher and 15 at designated hitter.
  14. harmony55
    A Boston blogger proposes a trade of Joe Ryan, Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax for five reportedly Top 100 prospects: Crafting a 3-Team Blockbuster With the Twins to Get Red Sox Some Pitching Help - Red Sox - Talk Sox TALKSOX.COM Can the Red Sox pull a third team in to facilitate a blockbuster deal with the Twins at the trade deadline?
  15. harmony55
    Even before acquiring Josh Naylor, the Seattle Mariners ranked second in the American League with a team OPS+ of 115 but 12th in the league with a team ERA+ of 94: https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2025.shtml
  16. harmony55
    Trevor Bauer pitched this year for the Yolohama DeNA BayStars of Japan's Central League but reportedly was demoted two weeks ago after a dugout altercation: https://www.profootballnetwork.com/mlb/trevor-bauer-dugout-drama-yokohama-drop-him-roster/ The demotion was the second this season the 34-year-old Bauer, who had a 3.96 ERA in 17 starts with the BayStars. Bauer was not on the roster when I attended a game in Yokohama on April 9. Bauer was back pitching Wednesday for the BayStars, taking the loss in a 4-3 game: https://www.flashscoreusa.com/game/baseball/6aUF3x3k/#/game-summary/game-summary
  17. harmony55
    The last time the Seattle Mariners posted an OPS+ below 104 was 2021. The Mariners posted a higher OPS+ than ERA+ in 2022 and 2023 before posting a 104 OPS+ and 106 ERA+ last year. This year Seattle is second in the American League with a team OPS+ of 117 (closing in on the Yankees' league-leading 119) while the team ERA+ lags in 12th place at 95.
  18. harmony55
    Podcaster Jim Riley has proposed a trade of Royce Lewis to Seattle for catcher Harry Ford: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u8k19YrZ2JA ... at 15:55. Currently holding the final AL Wild Card slot, would Seattle consider Royce Lewis an upgrade over rookie Ben Williamson, a glove-first third baseman (with an RBI double in Saturday's 1-0 win)? This year Lewis has posted 0.1 fWAR and a 74 wRC+ in 35 games while Williamson has posted 0.5 fWAR and a 79 wRC+ in 66 games. FanGraphs projects Lewis with 1.1 WAR and a 108 wRC+ in 55 remaining games while projecting Williamson with 0.5 WAR and an 85 wRC+ in 41 games. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/royce-lewis/20437/stats?position=3B https://www.fangraphs.com/players/benjamin-williamson/33197/stats?position=3B Baseball Trade Values assigns Lewis a surplus value of $15.5 million and Ford a surplus value of $19.4 million. Could the Mariners find a better return for Ford?
  19. harmony55
    Perhaps the Twins were going for the strikeout with Griffin Jax, sporting a 38.2 percent strikeout rate, against Randy Arozarena, who had been striking out at a 36.5 percent clip over his previous 17 games. Irrelevant trivia: Arozarena and Rowdy Tellez have each homered in five career plate appearances against Jax.
  20. harmony55
    FWIW Randy Arozarena had posted a .164/.243/.299/.542 line over his previous 17 games.
  21. harmony55
    Are Minnesota fans prepared for another Herschel Walker trade?
  22. harmony55
    An unpopular comp for Royce Lewis would be Atlanta outfielder Jarred Kelenic, another former Top 6 draft pick who is 41 days younger than Lewis. MLB Trade Rumors projects Lewis and Kelenic with 2025 arbitration salaries of $2.3 million as Super Twos. Lewis has two years and 142 days of MLB service while Kelenic has two years and 169 days of MLB service. Lewis is coming off a season of 0.7 bWAR and an OPS+ of 107 in 82 games after posting 2.4 bWAR and an OPS+ of 149 the previous year. In his season before his trade to Atlanta, Kelenic had posted 2.0 bWAR and an OPS+ of 111 in 105 games. In Kelenic's trade to Atlanta, Seattle attached lefthander Marco Gonzales and first baseman Evan White, who were owed a combined $27.5 millon over two seasons. In return the Mariners received pitchers Jackson Kowar and Cole Phillips, lottery tickets who missed the 2024 season after TJS but who come with six years of team control. Baseball Trade Values recently assigned Lewis a surplus value of $26.3 million while a year ago assigning Kelenic a surplus value of $19.4 million even though at the time Kelenic had a year more of team control than Lewis currently has. What that means for the current trade value of Royce Lewis is difficult to determine, especially with Lewis' injury history. The Twins might well be better off keeping Lewis and hoping for the best.
  23. harmony55
    After this season Baseball Trade Values was probably accurate in downgrading the trade value of Royce Lewis and upgrading the trade value of Bryce Miller but the specific numbers are up for debate. BTV at least examines relevant factors: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/valuing-major-leaguers ... but different people can assign different weight to each factor. This Seattle fan sees the BTV value high on George Kirby and low on Luis Castillo but other fans can offer contrasting views. It's important to distinguish probability from prediction or projection. Baseball Trade Values reviews its accuracy periodically: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/articles/trade-deadline-analysis-how-did-our-model-do-1
  24. harmony55
    It's probably a year late for a trade of Royce Lewis for Bryce Miller as their stocks moved in opposite directions this season. A year ago Baseball Trade Values assigned Lewis a surplus value of $74 million and Miller a surplus value of $25.6 million. BTV recently assigned Lewis a surplus value of $26.3 million and Miller a surplus value of $49.4 million. FWIW Chris Paddack was assigned a surplus value of $13.3 million a year ago and a negative $1.6 million recently. Because of a lack of starting pitching depth, Seattle is unlikely to trade a starter from the current rotation. The Mariners can't count on getting 149 starts again from their top five starters. The only remotely feasible trade candidate from the Seattle rotation would be righthander Luis Castillo, whom the Mariners value far more than the negative $30.6 million assigned at Baseball Trade Values. Regardless, the Twins probably are not in a position to take on Castillo's roughly $24 million annual salary for three years. FWIW Baseball Trade Values assigns current surplus values of $111.4 million for George Kirby, $65.6 million for Logan Gilbert, $50.5 million for Bryan Woo and $49.4 million for Miller.
  25. harmony55
    Disappointing in light of high expectations. Over the past four seasons the Mariners have the league's fourth-best cumulative regular-season record but have landed a postseason berth only once, finishing one game behind the final Wild Card slot twice, and two games back once. Seattle should return the core of the club that was sixth in the league in run differential. The M's can't expect to repeat the durability of this year's starting rotation but hope for healthy returns of relievers Matt Brash, Gregory Santos and Gabe Speier. This year the Mariners posted a team wRC+ of 104, including a league-leading wRC+ of 118 after August 15. Like most teams, Seattle would welcome improved hitting but the M's are not starting at the bottom of the barrel. Thanks for asking.
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