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harmony55

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Everything posted by harmony55

  1. harmony55
    Before the trade Chris Paddack and Louie Varland made up two-fifths of the Twins starting rotation while Luis Urias and Josh Rojas made up two-ninths of the Mariner lineup. https://zonecoverage.com/2024/mn-twins-news/will-the-twins-piggyback-pitchers-in-2024/ The Twins had the greater need but an ideal trade helps both teams.
  2. harmony55
    Seattle apparently coveted Jorge Polanco for years and Minnesota PBO Derek Falvey held out until the Mariners upped their offer to top offers from other teams. Falvey likely reached the well-founded conclusion that a young, controllable starter would never be on the table in a Polanco trade. With the departures of Cy Young runner-up Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda, the Twins had greater needs than the Mariners, who have Luis Urias and Josh Rojas available at third base and second base. Over the past years Polanco never posted the 2+ fWAR season that Urias and Rojas each did. Polanco is a welcome luxury not a necessity.
  3. harmony55
    The Royals, who finished ahead of the Twins as recently as 2021, should be embarrassed for finishing 31 games behind last year's division champs who posted just the seventh-best record in the league..
  4. harmony55
    Prelander Berroa, an aged 23 years old, has two options remaining. Would the Twins have any interest in five years for former Top 50 (or 15) prospect Taylor Trammell, a 26-year-old, out-of-options lefthanded hitter capable of playing a solid center field? Trammell has struggled at the MLB level but last year posted a .268/.390/.530/.920 line in 391 plate appearances at Triple A Tacoma. https://www.reddit.com/r/Mariners/comments/196wgb8/driveline_baseball_welcoming_taylor_trammell_to/
  5. harmony55
    If the Mariners had talked with the Twins about Jorge Polanco since 2021, as reported, the Seattle front office probably had inquired about Max Kepler at least since last offseason when Kepler carried two years of team control and the Mariners had an outfield need. This offseason Seattle's outfield needs lessened somewhat on January 5 when Luke Raley and Mitch Haniger were acquired. Nevertheless the Mariners would have welcomed Kepler's defense.
  6. harmony55
    Baseball Trade Values provides notorious volatility in its player valuations as evidenced by its Justin Topa valuations that fell from $18.5 million on November 29 to the current $7 million the following day. BTV gave the Twins the clear edge in ultimate trade even with the lower valuation on Topa. Seattle was likely to trade from its bullpen surplus this offseason. Topa was a top trade-high candidate after his breakout in his age 32 season. The Mariners flip relievers, such as Paul Sewald, the way real estate speculators flip houses. The M's acquired Topa (BTV value 0.0) last offseason for the modest price of prospect righthander Joseph Hernandez. The Mariners then polished up Topa before flipping the reliever at the far higher value. Seattle PBO Jerry Dipoto has a reputation as a prolific trader but another club needed to agree to each of his trades. One could argue that Dipoto finds trade partners because he offers value, often excessive value, according to Baseball Trade Value. Hoping the trade will prove to be a win-win for the Twins and Mariners.
  7. harmony55
    Seattle PBO Jerry Dipoto discusses the Jorge Polanco trade: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d40TL46qnOA
  8. harmony55
    The Twins likely set their sights high but settled for what the market would bear.
  9. harmony55
    And it takes only two bidders to drive up the price.
  10. harmony55
    Seattle PBO Jerry Dipoto was unlikely to be bidding against himself. A month ago MLB Trade Rumors listed nine potential destinations for Jorge Polanco: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/looking-for-a-match-in-a-jorge-polanco-trade.html
  11. harmony55
    Reports suggest that the Mariners have been interested in Jorge Polanco for years. This offseason Minnesota CBO Derek Falvey likely was asking Seattle for Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo while dangling the expendable Polanco to other teams as well. In the end the Mariners were unwilling to trade Miller or Woo and the Seattle package likely topped any other proposed trade for Polanco. That's the nature of negotiations.
  12. harmony55
    With the trade five American League teams are within 1.6 WAR of each other for the league's third highest projected WAR at FanGraphs: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Team
  13. harmony55
    A Seattle beat reporter offers her take on the trade: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cMydZACP8hc
  14. harmony55
    I was just as wrong. We all tend to overvalue the players on our favorite team. From my perspective* the Mariners overpaid for Jorge Polanco by giving up a Top 80 prospect and a solid reliever. At any rate I am grateful for the civil and meaningful discourse on Twins Daily. Jorge Polanco has a new fan. * and FWIW the perspective of Baseball Trade Values
  15. harmony55
    Gabriel Gonzales is currently the 79th-ranked prospect at MLB.com: https://www.mlb.com/prospects Anthony DeSclafani and Justin Topa are owed a combined $13.25 million this year.
  16. harmony55
    Ouch. Jorge Polanco has a new fan.😁
  17. harmony55
    Seattle has a combined 25 years of team control over its current starting rotation of Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo at an estimated aggregate salary of $186.7 million, or an average annual salary less than $7.5 million per starter. Attrition always looms but in today's pitching market, the Mariners are in an envious position.
  18. harmony55
    Another injury to Jorge Polanco or a Twins teammate would change the calculus as well.
  19. harmony55
    Brooks Lee turns 23 years old on Valentine's Day.
  20. harmony55
    We all hope Walker Jenkins blossoms into an All Star but perhaps we need to pump the brakes on the small sample; Compare these 2023 stats between complex action and Low A: Player A 26 G, 115 PA, .362/.417/.571/.989 Player B 24 G, 114 PA, .374/.496/.550/1.055 Player A is Walker Jenkins, who is five months older than Player B, middle infielder Colt Emerson, whom the Seattle Mariners selected with the 22nd pick of the 2023 draft. Each deserves fan excitement but it's too early to anoint either a star.
  21. harmony55
    Looking through the narrow lense of departed free agents, the Detroit Tigers need to replace the combined 3.1 fWAR posted , last year by Eduardo Rodriguez, Miguel Cabrera, Matthew Boyd and Jose Cisnero. Through the same narrow lense, the Twins need to replace the combined 12.0 fWAR posted last year by Sonny Gray, Michael Taylor, Kenta Maeda, Donovan Solano, Emilio Pagan, Joey Gallo, Tyler Mahle and Dallas Keuchel. The Tigers, who won 78 games in 2023, have added Maeda, Jack Flaherty and Andrew Chafin to their 40-man roster while the Twins, who won 87 games last year, have added Josh Staumont, Bubba Thompson and Ryan Jensen. Those narrow lenses don't tell the full story but the Twins will rely on touted products of the farm system to fill the gaps left by the departed free agents.
  22. harmony55
    In the 2017 preseason prospect rankings, Baseball America, MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus ranked Kyle Lewis No. 34, No. 29 and No. 70, respectively, even though Lewis had torn his ACL and undergone surgery the previous year in his first minor league season.
  23. harmony55
    As consistently stated, the Twins would be unlikely to trade Royce Lewis for Logan Gilbert. Royce Lewis, the No. 1 pick in the 2017 draft, and Kyle Lewis, the No. 11 pick in the 2016 draft, have each undergone multiple knee surgeries. They share more than their last names. Royce Lewis indeed had 519 at-bats in 127 games in 2019, the same year Kyle Lewis had 528 at-bats in 140 games. Royce Lewis posted 2.4 fWAR in 58 games last year after a 12-game MLB debut the previous season. In 2020 Kyle Lewis posted 2.0 fWAR in 58 games after an 18-game MLB debut in 2019. The past three seasons Royce Lewis has averaged just shy of 40 games a year across all levels; Kyle Lewis has averaged just shy of 60 games a year across all levels. The Seattle Mariners traded Kyle Lewis to Arizona in November 2022. This offseason the Diamondbacks nontendered Lewis despite his .371/.457/.641/1.098 line in 293 plate appearances last year at Triple A Reno. Because of his injury history, Royce Lewis has a wider range of possible outcomes than a player with no injury history. Lewis could become the All Star we all hope for ... or fall far short. Thank you for the feedback.
  24. harmony55
    According to Baseball Trade Values, Jorge Polanco's value relative to a starting pitcher would be four years of Kansas City left hander Daniel Lynch IV, a 2018 first-round draft pick. BTV assigns surplus trade values of $9.4 million for Polanco and $9.3 million for Lynch. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/daniel-lynch-iv-663738?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb The 27-year-old Lynch, a former Top 30 prospect, remains on the Royals' 40-man roster although Roster Resource lists Lynch at Triple A Omaha: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/royals Perhaps the Minnesota pitching lab can develop Lynch ala Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober and Chris Paddack. The Twins currently lack a lefthanded starter if Kody Funderburk doesn't count. Lynch missed the last 10 weeks of the 2023 MLB season with a concerning shoulder injury but after one start in the Arizona Fall League pitched well in the Dominican Winter League: https://www.mlb.com/news/daniel-lynch-iv-royals-2024-rotation-competition A Red Sox website featured Lynch last week: https://www.overthemonster.com/2024/1/17/24037290/red-sox-smash-or-pass-daniel-lynch-trade-rumors-analysis An intradivision trade is not realistic because the likely noncontending Royals won't want to assume the $11.25 million guaranteed for a year (or two) of Polanco. However, the comparison is provided as an example of Polanco's worth in starting pitching.
  25. harmony55
    Other perspectives on Bailey Ober and Logan Gilbert: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?pos=&stats=pit&type=steamer https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&type=8&season=2023&season1=2023&ind=0&qual=140&pagenum=2&pageitems=30
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