Write the story of the 2024 Twins and you'll say that the team started strong but injuries overtook them, exposing a lack of depth especially on the pitching staff. That is the story I'd write, too, until I looked at the Twins' season splits.
The splits reveal the Twins to be near the middle of the pack or a little worse in almost every category except one - their winning percentage against losing teams. The Twins are a MLB-best 41-18 when playing sub .500 teams. No other team - not the Yankees or Phillies or Dodgers or Guardians - has been more dominant against losing teams. Combine that with just an average performance against winning teams and the Twins would be in the postseason. Unfortunately, the Twins have struggled against teams north of .500, going just 40-58.
Looking at the results month-by-month, it's clear how this has obscured the results this season. Minnesota had a 29-25 record at the end of May and Twins Territory was feeling encouraged about the season. The Twins were 10-0 at that point against the White Sox and Angels, however, and 19-25 against everyone else.
June (15-12) was another winning month for the Twins but... they had the good fortune of playing the Athletics in two series, going 6-1. They had a 9-11 record against everyone else.
When July and August rolled around, the prevalent patsies of the prior months were not to be found on the schedule. The Twins only played 12 game against teams with losing records in those two months as opposed to 39 games versus teams at or above .500. They throttled the White Sox again, taking 5 of 6, but went 21-24 against the other 14 teams.
In September, the now injury-ravaged Twins have looked much less like the schoolyard bullies they were through the end of August. They are only 6-6 this month against the sub .500 teams and an abysmal 2-8 against winning teams.
There is no argument that injuries have impacted the Twins' playoff chances. If they had managed to keep dominating the losing teams in September they would have a spot all but clinched. The story the spilt against losing teams tells us, however, is that the Twins overall record before the injuries was propped up by a domination of one particular sad-sack team - the White Sox (12-1). The Twins simply weren't that good against the stronger teams in the league at any point in the season. (A case could be made for how they handled the Royals early in the season, but when it counted most, they swept us.)