DocBauer

Without going in to the usual can't/won't payroll discussion, I'd rather have openness and honesty. Falvey was honest when the offseason began and Joe was honest in his interview. I do think there are a trio of interesting RH OF FA the Twins are still considering, and with good reason. Even Baldelli has commented about that being a hole on the roster. I do think there's a strong chance we still see a veteran SP on a milb deal to prove they're on the comeback trail. Costs you nothing but a split deal that surely won't pay much if they come up. I don't think there's any real chance they sign any of the remaining big 4 FA. Maybe 10% if someone like Wheeler wants a 1yr and see if/how the market re-sets next year? MAYBE a 2 or 3yr deal with an opt out each of the first 2 seasons like Correa signed? But that might be more risk than the Twins want to take. They will always be open to a trade if it makes sense. Is there a trade out there that can bring in an arm without having to cost the Twins any of their top 5 prospects?

The most important part of being a quality catcher is how he calls a game and his relationship with the staff. Hard to measure those things. And has been pointed out in various other posts, one site will tell you one thing and another site will tell you something else. I'm with Stringer bell that I have also heard/read something about ERA when Jeffers caught. Personally, I've never had a problem with anything in Jeffers defense, other than a bad caught stealing a year or so ago. Results and eye test have him at least solid on my book. It was always whether or not the bat ever found consistency. The Twins had one of the best overall staffs in the league last year. Talent is a huge part of that. But Jeffers and Vazquez guiding that staff is also a part of the results. Jeffers' numbers can and probably will regress some. Even then he can be very much above average. And there's at least a reasonable chance Vazquez rebounds to at least a little better year offensively. I think a generally 60/40 split makes the most sense between the two. Odds say Camargo gets his ML initiation at some point this year. Everything I've heard is good guy, good teammate, solid game calling and defense, a little above average arm, and solid power. Bat to ball skill will probably determine how good he might become. Going deeper, 3 interesting prospects in Winkel, Cardenas, and Cossetti. 4 if you count Olivar, though I think it's a bit debatable if he remains at catcher in the future. While no TOP prospects in the system right now, the Twins are in a pretty enviable spot overall.

Last I heard, he had been making adjustments last season that had him sitting in the 93-94mph range and touching 95-96mph. Believe when he was first signed he was in the 88-91 range. If the new velocity is accurate, with his location and ability to change speeds, he could be a fast riser this year. Fingers crossed.

I think Pierson Ohl should be added to the list of possibles. If he can continue from where he left off last season, he could be a nice option about mid year.

God bless Goodrum for "coming home" and helping the Saints. But he's also about the 5th or 6th emergency option at this point. The FO HATES losing depth, which stinks for Larnach as I still believe there would be a few teams that would love to grab him as a late bloomer. If the season started tomorrow, he's on the roster as an OF and DH against RHP. Never forget 75-80% of the time that's what you're facing. He's still got talent and potential. I'm just not certain he's where he's supposed to be. We'll see. THANK YOU Ted for including Helman and Prato in your OP. Why does everyone proclaim how wonderful Castro is and forget to realize that opportunity allowed him to be what he was last year, and forget that there's a couple of guys this year that might make a difference. If the Twins go out tomorrow and sign Taylor as a speedy, super glove OF with some pop, I'm 100% OK. With Martin in the wings and available for promotion at any time, I'm OK with a bat first addition. I still like a solid, neutral split bat addition like Duvall on a 1yr. Better against RHP than Wallner, Kepler, OK if he's forced to play daily. But talent and payroll regardless, do the Twins actually think Martin is ready? Id only be in favor if he's going to play almost daily. I just don't see that opening daily right now. It just makes sense to give him a little more time offensively and defensively for a few weeks at AAA. That's what I'd do. UNLESS Martin blows you away, I'd be looking at Helman and Prato and playing them daily in ST. IF, again, you don't bring in another RH bat, Helman is a kid you wanted to see last year. He's got the same game as Castro, with more pop/power. Prato might have a better hit tool? I think both of these invites might be under the radar options that fill the last spot unless someone else is added, or the Twins just trust Martin is ready to go.

I also object to the term "lie". I guess it's mitigated somewhat in the opening text and the term "true lie", which I've never heard before. There are a lot of ways of saying there was spin, misleading initial information, any number of ways it could have been stated without using the word "lie" which indicates clear deception. And I don't see any of that. I have my opinions on ownership, which i will share, but first, some direct comments. 1] Twins ownership was in a very aquward place this offseason. I believe bad timing and MLB, share in the TV issue, as does Amazon to a degree. There are teams already under the MLB umbrella for broadcasts this year, which began last season when Bally simply stopped payments due and dropped out. There are other organizations that will see their deals drop next year, for varying reasons, or very soon. The Twins, I'm quite certain, were of the belief they were going to be under the MLB umbrella as well, and definitely looking at a loss of income, at least in the short term. But the blackout restrictions would have been removed. That was the positive for 2024 and the future. And so it was reported as such. With the future of what and how, and how much this new umbrella was going to pay out...as many as 15-18 teams in 2025 from what I've read and heard...the sudden changes/surprises that took place in the BK court flipped everything. Suddenly, the Twins had a chance to earn approximately 85% of their lost $55M, which is about $45-46M, versus an unknown amount. They took the $ for 1yr and the asanine blackouts were back in place for one more year. The vast extent of those blackouts remains completely asanine and illogical. 2] And this is also very much part of #1. Without any kind of guarantee of $ from MLB...certainly a major drop from 2023...a payroll drop would appear to be in order from a business standpoint. (More on that later). It's pretty easy to say that the way things played out that NOW the Twins have more $ than they expected, so they should go out and spend. But my question is, spend on who at this point? When Amazon came in as a limited partner for Bally...for now...it changed the entire complexity of the situation, but I'd argue too late to do much good for the Twins. There was something... I can't find now...that was either legal or the judge's mandate, that basically gave Bally not only the right to negotiate new 1yr deals, but IIRC, it was basically a mandate that at least some of the teams involved HAD to sit down and negotiate in good faith. I'm not sure if that included the Twins as their deal had actually expired, but I do recall it affected other teams that Bally was pulling out of deals for, but weren't on expiring deals. Just a complete and utter mess! And again, some of this is bad timing, some blame belongs with MLB who wasn't looking far enough ahead, and Amazon for helping set up this mess by buying in all of a sudden. IF these surprise BK events had taken place earlier, I ask again, with increased $ coming in that wasn't expected...and a lot of inexpensive talent on hand, more coming, and payroll cuts that came naturally from roster loses...who might the Twins have signed with the extra $ had it come earlier? I would have been very interested in being a player for RHOF Gurriel to be a corner OF and part of the rotating DH. His signing MIGHT have lead to Kepler being involved in a deal. OR, a future replacement for Kepler in 2025. But NO REASON they couldn't have kept all 3 for 2024 and have even more options and an even deeper team/lineup. IMO, Hoskins at 1B/DH was an option...no Santana...even on a short term deal. But probably not if Gurriel was signed. The Twins don't sign 5-7yr deals for SP, especially those at 30yo plus. But they MIGHT have been in on Eduardo Rodriguez, at 31yo, for 3 or 4 years, which is what he signed for. On a lower level, they might have signed a Strohman or Wacha on a short deal instead of trading for Desclafini. They could have then kept Polanco and Kepler, OR, in these events, moved either or both for different help, OR, a larger deal with Seattle for a young arm and simply NOT signed any FA rotation arm and just worked out a bigger deal with Seattle since they had already added Gurriel. These are all some great opportunities to shuffle and add to the roster from offense to the starting staff, and whatever other pieces might be brought back in various deals. But none of it matters when you are looking at something like...at LEAST for 1yr...an anticipated drop in income of $30-35M. The Twins didn't lie about anything. In fact, they were very forthcoming, which they got blasted for, with Falvey being a fall guy that he didn't deserve to be. 3] I have to LOL at this. The FO is NOT ownership! Falvey and Levine have pushed the payroll to maintain a MLB AVG/MEAN while they've been in charge. To say they haven't been trying to improve the team is laughable! They, so far, have been unable to pull another rabbit out of the proverbial hat and make another Odorizzi, Gray, or Lopez trade that largely doesn't affect the system or 26 man roster to any dearthly degree. But they took a small gamble on Santana adding to the margins as a veteran presence who can help Kirilloff at 1B, PH, and MAYBE surprise if he suddenly learns how to hit RHP again. They provided an interesting #5 SP who doesn't excite me, but if truly 100% health wise, was good/great in 2021 and good for 2 months in 2023 before an elbow issue ended up shutting him down for the remainder of the season. So far, they've kept ALL of their prospects, not just the top 5-6, added a couple, and added a lot of depth and potential to the pen. With tough constraints handed to them, the FO actually have tried to add and improve, knowing there are various forms of internal improvement that could/should take place. So any actual target at the FO is laughable. WHAT THE FO/OWNERSHIP SHOULD HAVE DONE: THIS is where I have a problem with OWNERSHIP, maybe for the first time in a decade or so. When you look at a couple mistakes, some unbelievable 1st half offensive struggles, and a strong 2nd half to the season, and wrap it all up and deal with injuries and promotions and everything else, the 2023 Twins could have easily been a 90 win team. That was my prediction before the season, the 2nd half Twins were on pace to slightly exceed that, and I'll stand by my prediction. They won the ALC, won the series against the Jays, and IMO SHOULD have at least done better against the Astros. Youth vs experience and BTDT maybe?? What ownership SHOULD HAVE DONE is have Falvey stating the obvious about their loss of income, but instead of stating a cut, they were hoping to maintain payroll as much as they could depending on how things worked out. Major League Ready had an earlier post you can agree with or not. But even if his figures aren't exactly right, what he produces is a truth, I believe. Unless you believe that total income for the Twins organization is FAR LESS than $300-ishM, his proposed model makes sense. And it's something I've spoken of previously. Owning a sports franchise NEVER means you should operate at a loss. That's just silly business sense. But when you are a BILLIONAIRE ownership... and your franchise could sell for $2B tomorrow...and your professional sports team is probably well out of your top 10 earnings per year at, oh let's say $30M for argument sake, if you had to earn only $20M for a year or two to invest, but maybe continue to develop your bottom line with positive results, isn't that worth something? Ownership SHOULD have guessed/hoped for a better $ resolution and just told the FO to expect a neutral, or small cut and go for it. No advance in payroll, if that's their choice. Hope and expect for something better. And then ownership gets lucky and they only lose about $15M, which is $8M loss to the roster. The total loss of income is negligible for a billion dollar ownership who seems to suddenly see the Twins as income, which is ridiculous, or "just another business" which is equally ridiculous as improvement in your product leads to greater overall future value. WHAT OWNERSHIP/FO CAN DO: WAKE UP. You don't have to be the Dodgers or Yankees to realize that in any business investment leads to returns. I like this team in so many ways. It's too late for the BK alternative options that could have taken place. But you do have more $ that you didn't think you would have. And once again, right or wrong, some options have been laid at the Twins table. Just like Correa 2yrs ago, and last year, there is a CHANCE Boras comes calling to the Twins. Is Montgomery on a 3yr $60-70M deal with an opt out each year crazy? Puts the Twins on the hook if he stinks, gives them 2yrs if he rebounds, gives them 1yr if he's good. And at that point, the system kicks in. The same might be said for Bellinger, but I still think the Cubs or Giants will grab him. I think I'm out on Snell because I just don't trust a guy who's Cy Young only ever few years and a question mark every other season. Maybe the $ savings helps with a mid season trade, but that will cost prospect value. Maybe we can absorb that and do better than we did in 2022. I DON'T believe the Twins lied about anything. I DO believe ownership was very short sighted. I HOPE opportunity won't slide by.

Grichuk wasn't one of my top choices, and didn't have a great year last season, but still had a 103OPS+. That's a potentially useful bat to PH and give Wallner or Kepler an off day here and there, especially against LHP. And he only cost $2M! There is room and need on this team for a RH OF and it shouldn't cost much. And opportunity remains. To not spend a few $M to fill a hole would be miscarriage of that opportunity.

It's my understanding that Correa uses the hop to 1B for the dual purpose of timing for the 1B to make a play, and because the spin on the ball actually helps increase the speed in which it arrives. No expert, but that's my understanding.

I've seen only a little of Miller in the field but the range, glove, instincts and are are LEGIT. The kid could play very good/excellent defense at the ML level right now. And that's no insult to what DeAndrade us now and can be. He was signed as a legitimate SS prospect. It's my understanding his body might grow out of the position. Miller did get a little better with the bat in the second half last season, but when you're near the bottom there's no place left but to go up. He's got some natural athleticism, so I'm not discounting further development. But DeAndrade is clearly ahead right now. He put up better all around numbers at a year younger and a lower level, but, the Florida league is considered a dead ball league. Does Miller show enough improvement in the offseason and ST to move to AA as a 21yo? Or is he better off at least begining the year at Cedar Rapids? DeAndre deserves to move up to CR. It would be nice if both could be the primary SS at a level, but kids always move around to accommodate and get experience for themselves. So I don't know that either is hurt if they share time at a level for now. Nothing says they have to do so for the entire season. This is a nice problem to have, but both are still so young, they've both got a lot of room for improvement, but time and talent are on their side.

It's not just size. If it were, Ober would throw 100 MPH. Pedro Martinez have never been the pitcher he was. Nor would have Radke been the pitcher he was. And I understand the humor you tossed in. Top prospect Raya wouldn't have the velocity and stuff he has. Sometimes it comes down to physical build, and sometimes it comes to better mechanics. If Hall can find a couple more MPH, he could be an outstanding prospect to watch in 2024

I think, understably so, you are confused with NAMES and $M amount spent on the pen. No, the Twins didn't spend $12/13M on Hader. But think a moment on Liam Hendricks. He just never made it as a SP. After years of bouncing around, he suddenly turned in to a tremendous RP reaching 30yo. Our own Stewart was, in a previous baseball life, a pretty high prospect. But injuries and such held him back. PLEASE go and read the recent BLOG from Adam Nelson about Stewart. And he's suddenly a tremendous piece of our pen. Thielbar was a throw away arm until re-invented as a BP arm. Jax is the same, despite being a pretty high draft choice initially. Jay Jackson went to Japan to re-invent himself. Why he isn't more well regarded is a mystery to me as his numbers the past 3yrs are very good, despite limited IP. Okert has 3 really solid seasons behind him, with good K numbers. His ERA in 2023 was higher than his previous years, but all the peripherals are generally solid. Topa is a mystery. At 31yo he seemed to finally get it together and made himself viable. Much like Stewart. So he's a throw away even thought his path is similar to Stewart? He had a great 2023 for one of the best staffs in 2023. Don't sell him short. Staumont, if indeed fully healthy and ready to go, is a legitimate 7th-8th inning arm. POTENTIALLY, he and Stewart are so good Jax might slide down a notch. And the Twins have depth if someone craps out. Which is most important. Someone will get hurt, or not perform, because that's just baseball. But the depth right now is pretty damn good despite $ spent.

I agree on Castro. But I'm also OK with him as the daily backup. That mean, Buck needs a day off, Castro plays there. I don't want Castro for more than a day or two. It decreases his overall value to the club, and hurts the defense, at least a little. The good news is you can make a roster move the next day if you needed to bring someone up if there's something more long term that happens. I've been really torn on the whole RH-OF to promote or bring on board. On the one hand, Taylor is about as good as it gets in CF, and that's important. He offers additional speed to go along with a little bit of pop/power. Had his back been healthier in 2023 I think you would have seen more SB. He's not a great hitter and he sort of sold out for HR power, but that defense and speed are hard to dispute. On the other hand, with Castro as a back up and Martin in St Paul ready to be promoted whenever needed, maybe what they really need is Duvall. He's not a great hitter, but he's a solid hitter. I actually like his mostly neutral splits as that means if he's needed for an extended time, you don't have to worry about his offense going in to the garbage. I used to lean strong toward Taylor...now I think I'm leaning more toward the power bat, whoever it might be, but Duvall might be the best choice. I'm excited about Martin after what he did in the AFL and his third of a season last year for the Saints. But I wasn't overly thrilled with his .263 AVG even with the great OB%. And only a third of the year in his first season at AAA gives me some pause. I'd rather spend a few $M for a solid veteran and let Martin get in a little more work and experience with St Paul to begin the season. I'm just not sure if that guy should be a speed-defense guy, or a power guy.

Tons of great information there! If I'm not mistaken, didn't the Twins actually sign him in 2022 as part of his rehab with a futures deal in place? When he got hurt last year, he stated his arm was basically tired as he had pitched so little the previous years. I hope that's accurate as he looked great again when he came back and he's looked absolutely lights out in a Twins uniform. He could regress quite a bit and still be dominate with as good as he was in '23. Thanks for the write up!

Sure it wasn't Marco Bellinger, the guy who paints signs?

I don't have any answers. But I do have opinions and questions. Try as teams will to find LH arms of any sort...much less GOOD LH arms...batters are still going to see a RH arm about 75-80% of the time. That's minors and majors. So a LH batter has the general, built in, same side disadvantage of angels and the such. But on top of that, they simply aren't going to see LH pitchers near enough on a consistent basis for it be natural to them. Conversely, if you are a RH batter and can't hit RH pitching, you just aren't going to make it. You have to be at least semi OK. I think the difference in OPS for a LH batter from a RH pitcher to a LH pitcher is something like 100-150 points lower in OPS, if not more. The key is...except for those few guys who can someone maintain a close to OPS number...just HOW low does the OPS drop? I mean, if a guy has an .800 OPS and it drops to the low .700 or even high .600 range, he's not going to kill you facing a LH thrower, especially if it's the starter or an early appearing reliever. The reason for that is obvious, probably going to be facing a RH arm sooner or later and you want him available. Conversely, if your LH .800 OPS hitter drops to .600, or worse, (shudder), you're probably just going to have to accept sitting him whenever possible against same side arms. Yes, this is all a bit obvious. But it needs to be stated that history has simply shown that you can have a LH hitter face LH pitching all the time, every time, and it doesn't show that he's going to develop in to a GOOD hitter against LH arms. But you also can't platoon everywhere. I don't have a clue, but don't scouts and coaches have SOME IDEA of who MIGHT develop and be at least acceptable against port side arms? I mean, it would seem to me that someone who has Julien's approach...controlled aggressiveness, power, the ability to work a count and look for the right pitch, the ability to hit with a couple of strikes or work a walk...would develop in to one of those solid, acceptable hitters just given an opportunity. But what do I know? LOL Is it a confidence, vision, or just a certain stroke with how the bat comes through the strike zone plane that just allows some guys to be better at it? I'd like to think those in charge would have the experience and knowledge to recognize certain traits that might lead to a LH bat developing in this way. And maybe they do and it's just that damn hard! But I do think you must give opportunity to a young player to see if he CAN develop that skill. I mean, you can't platoon every spot anyway, so you might as well as try to develop that skill, right?

One of the most intriguing selections in the last draft. I'd speculate that if his velocity was already in the 93-94 range he would have been no worse than a #2 pick. But great control, a great change, and a decent breaking pitch to work with is a good start. He doesn't have the deception of the long Ober, and from the videos I've seen I don't know that he's got the "rise" that Ryan has. He doesn't have a large frame, so adjustments in velocity are probably coming from better mechanics. But if they can unlock some more, I think they've got a potential fast riser here.

I don't believe in scholarships, but he was good in both 2020 and 2021, and particularly good at the end of '21 when he really got a handle on his change. He's been pretty much hurt since then. I'm just banking on that version of Alcala now that he's seemingly healthy and at full velocity again. But agree he also needs to prove he's all the way back and beginning the season in AAA seems to be in store for him, and that's not necessarily a bad thing.

This is just me guessing, but I could see a couple of early starts in Wichita just to get back in a groove before moving to St Paul early May. I think his stuff is more than ready for AAA, I'm just thinking it makes sense to get in that groove at a lower level for a handful of starts. And you're right that he might have a better/earlier shot at the Twins staying in the rotation for now. I've been split on being in the rotation for now, or moving him immediately to the pen. Obviously, the Twins have their own opinion.

Thank you. I thought that was the case but couldn't remember. Might make him less of a lock for the pen to open the season?

Nothing wrong with having a stronger and deeper bullpen, regardless of your rotation quality. There's the old adage of needing to find 2 quality rotation arms, so you'd better have like 6 or 7 to begin with to find those 2. Right now the Twins have like 16 or more to work with. And the ones being mostly written in to the pen are coming off good seasons, just forgetting age or long term career history. I don't know that building a better, deeper pen is necessarily part of any new strategy in regard to the rotation or copying anyone else, it's just good sense. But, no question the rotation might be down a few IP this year, and that better, deeper pen certainly helps. Lopez, Ober, and Ryan should be expected to pretty much do what they did last season, maybe even a little better, innings wise. I'd like to think Paddack will adequately replace Maeda's innings, and perhaps provide more. The question is how close can someone like DeSclafini come to Gray's 180 IP? Can he give 120-130? If so, that's another 50-60 to be picked up by the entirely of the staff. That's something like a third of an inning per game over the course of a season. Now, there's a difference between quality innings and total innings to be sure. And I'm not saying Paddack or DeSclafini is going to replace the quality that Gray provided. But if they pitch reasonably well and don't completely stink, they certainly don't have to replace all the starter innings lost. So what I'm saying is I don't see some new, secret strategy where the pen is being deepened to replace Gray and/or Maeda per se. I'm just seeing an attempt to have a better pen to win more game, and lose less games, and cover a few of those lost innings as well. But we're not talking some new opener type of strategy. But hey, I'm loving the attempt to build a deeper and better pen!

Based on previous results when healthy, Staumont would be the 8th guy to fill the list, but not the 8th guy out of the pen to be sure. Now, despite saying he's great, if he has any setback or doesn't have full control, etc, to begin the season he's got an option. Then the last spot is wide open. I can't recall if Weiss has an option, I want to say he does. But he's the first guy probably taken off the 40 man if the Twins make another signing or trade addition. I think the Twins are serious about Canterino as a rotation arm for now. Makes sense if you really think he can stick there. For now, he builds up his arm a bit, and gets multiple IP per game to work on his control and feel to get back on top again. That doesn't mean he can't move to the pen to end the season, or permanently later. I really like what I've seen of Funderburk and I still have some faith in Alcala after reports of full health, high velocity, and a good winter league performance. But both seem destined to begin the year in St Paul. But I can see both as a fixture later in the season, and for 2025 and beyond.

Not a big fan of the Santana signing. The problem is Miranda not only needs to prove he has his stroke and confidence back, IMO, but his shoulder isn't all the way back yet. Still working on throwing. He's who I'd like there, I just don't think he's ready. Santana offers a solution for now, and no more than 2024. Not a bad move as long as he's a RH 1B/PH/DH and not being treated as a full time player.

What Brian said. I chose none of the above as Lee will be up at some time this year, and assuredly for 2025. I don't think a log jam actually exists now, or the near future. Lewis, Correa, Lee, AK is your primary starting 4. Julien covers 2B/1B and plays a ton at DH. Further, both Lee and Lewis can cover SS. Castro can play everywhere and does so well, IMO. Pretty good chance Miranda or Severino makes the club at some point...Farmer and Santana gone by this time...to help cover the corners, PH, and DH. Although, they might have a Prato as another super utility player for more depth and versatility. Really, only a log jam with all of the above, plus adding in Schobel and Keaschall In a year or so. So eventually, someone(s) get traded. Can Lewis move to the OF? Sure, but I wouldn't do it. It's harder to find a great INF than an OF. Further, Buxton, Martin, and Wallner all in the OF as early as this year? Emma, Rosario, Gonzalez, and Jenkins all up over the next 2 years? Makes no sense to me to put Lewis in the OF unless it's on an occasional basis for roster flexibility. I'm in favor of mostly/semi position less baseball. I don't see a problem. I only see talent, depth, and exciting possibilities. If there's any issue, it's who gets moved and when as you can't keep 18 position players on your roster.

It's Wallner's job barring injury or production catastrophe. And he's probably/hopefully going to do pretty much what he's always done once he settles in at a level. And that's lower his K numbers about 5% and raise his BB about 5%. I still have hope for Larnach. If they don't add anyone else, he's got a decent chance to back up both corners and do a fair amount of DH ing. But a RH bat could also play in his place, whether they add or choose from internal options. Eventually, I can see Martin playing daily and hitting at the top of the lineup, but rotating through different spots on the field. But he won't replace Wallner. And I don't believe we'll see him for a couple of months.

Thanks for catching my error! Fixed!