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Everything posted by DocBauer
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It's a good list. I can't really argue with anyone on it. But I agree Prielipp is probably in the top 5 as well. Not sure who gets bumped. I also think there's an outside shot Dason Hill impresses enough in 2025 to make this list.
- 35 replies
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- walker jenkins
- brandon winokur
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So let me understand this, Duran's primary numbers and peripherals were still good in 2024...suggesting some poor luck or sequencing...and was still throwing 100mph consistently, would be a final piece for the champion Dodgers, and is just turning 27yo and the proposal is for a 26yo pitcher who has yet to prove himself, might not stick in the rotation anyway, might not be any better than some of the arms we already have at AAA, and a 27yo catcher who has yet to establish himself beyond AAA? And we improve the team how? We don't trade for a young catcher unless he's a YOUNG catcher, with more potential than this. And i don't know enough about Casparius to get too deep. But glancing at his MILB numbers, how is he any better than Festa, Matthews, Morris, etc? He's not needed as a replacement for Paddack. Rushing and a better, younger arm for Duran and someone else is a proposal that makes sense. The Twins can move Paddack and Vazquez for $ relief and maybe a young RHOF, etc. That starts to make sense. This proposal does not.
- 58 replies
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- jhoan duran
- hunter feduccia
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OK, I'll bite. McCann is a solid, experienced, better offense replacement for Vazquez. I also like Elias Diaz for the same reasons and he might cost less than McCann. But this idea of works or has any merit if the Twins can clear all or nearly all of Vazquez's salary. I'm not saying they can or they can't do so, but I'm sure it would include someone from rookie or A ball to balance the trade. But as already, accuratey pointed out, eating $3-4M of Vazquez's deal and then signing someone else for $4M doesn't really save anything. The best you end up with is a little better bat for 1yr. A] Find a way to clear all $10M of the deal, sign someone, possibly improve the offense a little, andhave a little $ to spend elsewhere. B] Stay status quo for a 2025 and be content with the defense and experience Vazquez provides and hope for the best with his bat. Not sure what other choice there really is. What's so frustrating to me...with no disrespect toward Vazquez...is how damn stubborn the FO is at times in taking a look at players already on hand, such as Camargo. His bat came alive in 2022. He performed even better at St Paul in 2023. Why do so many dismiss that because he had an off 2024? He's also got a 31% caught stealing rate in his career. How bad would he have to be to defensively...not saying he's bad...to receive an opportunity to display his game at the ML level to replace Vazquez's anemic bat? It's hard to find good catching. But you have a young catcher with potential on your hands and you'd rather spend FA $ or prospects to fill the spot vs giving your own prospect an opportunity? It just doesn't make sense and it's maddening to me.
- 66 replies
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- james mccann
- ryan jeffers
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I'm a little more of an optimist by nature. I believe 2019 and 2020 still resonate with fans. I think the injury related collapse of 2022 and the even worse collapse of 2024, COMBINED with the RIDICULOUS lack of viewership due to assanine blackouts, have played a part in fandom apathy. Justifiably so. What really HURT fandom was ownership following the 2023 season. To have a good ball club, a winning ball club, a playoff winning ball club, ravenous fans in the stadium, and then to have ownership just pull the magic carpet out from under the fan base is what's really tanked fan interest. And to have ownership blame the fans, and offer up excuses like "right sizing" the payroll at the peak of interest is a malfience of poor ownership. What's even worse is the Twins were actually fun to watch and follow most of 2024. New ownership will hopefully be a boon to the franchise. It would be hard to be worse. But as the OP asks questions about 2025, I hope we can begin to push aside the fan interest and ownership debates and focus more on a team that actually does have a lot of talent on hand, and has the potential for a good season.
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3 Twins to Watch for Potential Regression in 2025
DocBauer replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
@chpettit19stole a little bit of my thunder here. Considering just how good all 3 of these guys were in 2024, they absolutely could regression and STILL be very good! CORREA is a very well conditioned athlete and hard worker. He's put up good to excellent numbers when healthy in his career, including his time with the Twins. And he's only 31yo. Therapy and hard work and new shoes should keep him on the field going forward. BUXTON is always a heartbeat away from an injury it feels like. But he HAS learned not to sacrifice his body to the same extent he did when younger. And while his bad knee is probably as good as it's going to be now...maybe 80-90%...it held up well last season. My question is whether or not his hip will stop barking at him now with a better knee to play on, and speculation he's worked to strengthen/rehab it. I'll take whatever we can get from Buck, but if the hip is better now and no longer causing compensation problems tied to his knee, might he actually play in more games? WALLNER'S career is still relatively brief, all things considered. He's probably always going to K around 30%. And I fully appreciate MLB is very different than MILB. But coming up through the system, the one thing he always did was adapt and grow and get better. So far, he's actually improved his AVG/ OB%/ SLG%/ OPS EACH of his 3 ML seasons. I'm not saying he won't regression, and I'm not projecting a bunch of All Star appearances for him, but a .866 OPS is damn good so far. Very happy to see Lewis working hard with a trainer he'd worked with previously that helped him feel more flexible. He's strong enough! He just needs to avoid the soft tissue injuries going forward. Miranda's shoulder seems fine. I'm not aware of him ever having back issues before. We've seen what he can do when healthy. Larnach has grown and adapted. And he finished 2024 well. If I questioned his ability to drive the ball I'd be worried. If he didn't have a decent eye, I'd be worried. If he was coming off a potentially unsustainable, amazing season of 30HR, I'd be worried. But a guy who's battled injuries, adapted, and started to reach his potential a little later than hoped for, coming off a good season, and a strong finish? I don't know that we've seen the best of him yet. Jeffers is a bit of a mystery. I just don't understand a guy who has the ability to hit, and have that much power, being so "streaky". Still developing at 27yo and ready to be more consistent? Does he loose rhythm splitting so much time? I'll take his 2023-2024 production all day long. But it feels like he's just primed to find greater consistency one of these days. The OP is about 3 players, but these others were mentioned. Therefore, I commented about them as well. Maybe we should throw Castro in here as well? A .750 OPS in 2023 and around that mark in 2024 before his back started hurting. How about a healthy Castro for all of 2025? (They should ABSOLUTELY keep him!) I understand all the doom and gloom of the collapse last season. I understand questions about depth right now...with hopes for Rodriguez and Keaschall sometime in 2025, maybe an Eeles surprise...and frustrations about the FO being almost paralyzed from making depth acquisitions. But this is NOT a team without real talent on board already. Regression from the proposed top 3 is no death sentence, just a realistic possibility from how good they were in 2024 when on the field. And they aren't the only talented ballplayers available. I think we need to remember that. Spring training can't get here soon enough for me. I'm NOT satisfied with ownership or the handcuffs placed on the FO to add! But I still like what's on hand for the Twins. And I still like the potential of this team with a little better health...and they're due...and even a little more consistency out of the lineup day to day.- 41 replies
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- carlos correa
- matt wallner
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I don't disagree with you, though I look more closely at his career MILB numbers and not 200 PA in 2024 when he put up monstrous numbers. Those would be: .275/ .392/ .449/ .841 Still good numbers. I read a piece by Gleeman today who quoted PECOTA or someone that he projects to something like a .255 AVG and .340-ish OB%. I don't recall the SLG or OPS. I'm not a fan of the Gasper add for anything but AAA depth at this point. But I can at least see potential value if he actually hits and gets OB at a decent clip as the last man on the bench. (I don't have any idea how good or bad his defense is at any spot). I just really want SOMEONE who brings more to the team than a potentially "OK" bat with no speed and little power. But I'd be a hypocrite for pushing Keirsey and Helman as guys who need a long look in ST, and deserve one IMO, and just be TOO flippant in dismissing Gasper entirely. But both of those guys project better defensively...OF and UTILITY...with speed and some power. I just want SOMEONE better for that last spot who adds more offense. Reality is we might not be able to add someone like that. I'm actually thinking the roster is pretty much set at this point with the final spot being a combination of Gasper, Helman, Keirsey, Julien, and Martin. (I'd have both Eeles and McCusker in camp as non roster invites for long looks to see if they might have the potential to help the club at some point).
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** 300 MILB games at catcher? I'm confused. Baseball Reference shows 114 and 115 incollege. That's not 300 unless someone is reporting incorrectly. 15% caught stealing doesn't scream ML catcher option to me, other than as a #3 guy. He SHOULD be AAA depth replacing Williams as a C/1B/DH option with more bat, less power. And maybe that's where he still ends up. Unfortunately, I'm starting to believe he we might be a legitimate option for the 13th man spot. His 0 for 18 debut doesn't concern me at all. That's a debut over the equivalent of 4-5 games. I'd put more stock in his MILB career over 18 plate appearances. Being able to hit and make contact and have a good OB% from both sides of the plate could be a nice bench addition, and support for Miranda, less pressure to be the #1 guy every day, and still be freed up for some 3B duty. But no speed, no real power to speak of, probably not a true catcher, he should be AAA depth. If he's planned on for more than that, there's probably a wasted spot on the position portion of our 2025 roster.
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I tend to agree. If I could amend my "you're the GM" article...and I'm not sure it does any good to do so at this point...I like the idea of Paddack for a young, controllable RHOF as I suggested, stealing the idea from another website I fully admit. I think we're all in agreement that Vazquez is probably the next in line to be potentially moved. I'd include a decent but lesser prospect to try and get the entirety of his $10M gone, or as much as I could. At that point, Falvey needs to work on a prospect package for a young catcher. We're going to need one come 2026 to team with Jeffers, why not do so now? Then maybe grab someone like Elias Diaz for $2M for a veteran backup for now? Personally, I think moving Castro really hurts the Twins depth and roster flexibility and I just don't do that. Again, I kind of like adding Josh Bell on a 1yr deal to provide a solid switch hitter to DH, share some 1B duty with Miranda, and provide a potentially quality veteran PH when not in the lineup. I think that all fits in the proposed payroll, but probably not enough $ left for a FA LHRP, unless ownership budged some on their $ numbers. The Torkelson idea is a sound one. I just don't know if it's practical or not, assuming Detroit would even consider moving him.
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With respect, he's got 114 appearances at catcher in MILB and 108 games started there. Meanwhile, he's got 188 appearances at 1B and 179 games started there. I think he's as much, or more, of a 1B depth option as he is a catcher depth option. Not saying that's exciting, lol, but I think 1B is as much of the equation or more.
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Looking for someone like Torkelson is a smart move. More or less, it's the same kind of move that brought us Willi Castro. But Torkelson is not only in the same division...meaning Detroit is going to ask for more in any kind of trade...but he's also still only 24yo. He's had a bad season, a great season, followed by a bad season again. At 25yo, if he were a Twin, would we be anxious to trade him away? I think if Detroit moves him, it would be out of the division. As to Paddack...since he was brought up...I do think he's got value out there on the market. He's under 30yo still, is only going to cost $7.52M on a 1yr deal, and if he can maintain his velocity better in 2025, he could help a lot of rotation's back end. I wouldn't mind keeping him. But if Falvey wants to make some changes, he's going to have to move some guys as well. And Paddack is an obvious choice. I've read speculation that a deal of Paddack to the Cubs for one of their young RHOF might be smart for both clubs.
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1] Attendance will rise if the Twins win. And I agree with @nicksavikingthat a good start to the season definitely helps. No matter how much fan anger, frustration, and disappointment is directed towards ownership, if fans can now watch the games again, and the Twins play good ball, attendance will rise. But how much and how soon is a mystery. A change in ownership and a sense of optimism from the fanbase will make a huge difference, IMO. Having someone in charge...Falvey now I guess...who has a finger on the pulse of the public and what they want and need will help. But again, how much and how soon is a mystery. 2] Absolutely! I fully appreciate the fact that I'm an optimist at heart, but I still like the framework of this team, even with some question marks that have not yet been addressed or answered. Wallner has really produced since his arrival in 2023, save a poor opening couple of weeks in 2024. Larnach has really improved. I think there's optimism that Correa is going to be 100% in 2025, and with Lewis working with a previous trainer that he believes will help him be more flexible...thus avoiding the soft tissues injuries that have been plaguing him...imagine a full year out of both he and Correa? I'm simply never going to believe Buxton will wake up one day and be a 140 game player. But with his knee "fixed" to the best extent possible, what if rest/exercise/therapy can get his hip stronger now that he's no longer favoring a bad leg? Could we get 120 games from him? (Not saying we will, but I do wonder). It seems to me all Miranda really has to do is just be healthy. I believe strongly in the 3 arms fronting the rotation. I've got a really good feeling about Festa, who was solid overall, but put up some really good numbers after his somewhat mediocre first 3-4 appearances. And might SWR be better with a full season under his belt? There's talent behind them at AAA but no experience. Hopefully nobody is needed from across the city until a couple months in to the season so they have time to get off to a good start. And while the pen doesn't have a proven LH arm...yet anyway...to make us feel good, I see a unit that is about 11-12 arms deep with ability to contribute, from decent middle men to a really strong 8th-9th inning contingent. Not everyone is going to be great, and not everyone is going to be healthy at the same time, so the depth will work itself out. I've rambled enough here, but I've made my "glass is more than half full" point. There's a lot to like here. Better health is a key. But then again, health is an issue for pretty much every team. 3] I believe Keaschall and Rodriguez are going to debut at some point in 2025 and I believe both are going to be very good ballplayers, at least eventually. Always the standard caveat that it can take a rookie a little time to adjust. I wouldn't be shocked if Eeles proved to be the real deal and debuts at some point as well to help out. And as mentioned in point #2, the St Paul staff is going to be mostly made up of young and young-ish arms from within the system. There's talent but not much experience. But I can see Matthews, Morris, Headrick, Nowlin, Adams, and at least a couple of other arms being in a position to assist the Twins at some point this upcoming season. Again, I'm just hoping nobody is needed in an important position for a couple months. 4 & 5] I think I've already answered these two points previously. There's talent on the roster, There's talent at AAA. Some of that talent has already shown what it's capable of, but just needs to be healthy, OR, just needs to keep doing what it's been doing. I think it's accurate to say "young talent" instead of just saying "prospects". After all, Lee is barely removed from rookie status. He looked really good in ST, really good at AAA once back, and really good for 10-14 days with the Twins before he hurt his shoulder. We've seen greatness from Julien and really bad from Julien. Which is the real version? He certainly shouldn't be written off at this point. 6] Based on what he did in MILB and his solid debut in 2023, I think Funderburk has a chance to be a pretty good LHRP, maybe even really good. But he definitely took a step back in 2024 with control. Headrick has a chance as a 1-2 IP reliever instead of a starter. But I think Nowlin, and the stuff he's flashed in MILB, might be the best LHRP option for the Twins by the second half. But I'm not writing any of those names in ink to begin the season. I'd rather have an all RH pen rather than roster a LOOGY who gets destroyed by the next couple of batters if he doesn't end an inning successfully. (Think Okert). When the offseason began I felt the Twins had 3 primary holes to address/fill. They were a RH OF who didn't stink against RHP, some help at 1B besides simply accepting Miranda was the #1 guy, and a LHRP who could also be solid against RH bats to avoid any sort of LOOGY presence. Of course, all 3 of those questions remain unanswered. And thanks to ownership, I don't know if any or all can be answered. At least, not without weakening another spot on the roster, trading away prospect depth, or being creative with a couple trades. But that doesn't mean, IMO, that all is dark and gloom or that there isn't a good, solid team in place with some help on the way that make real contributions at some point as well. I like this team. But I'd like it a hell of a lot better if they had a $145-150M payroll to work with.
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- miranda
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I've heard rumors they may need liquid cash for their various real estate ventures. Just rumors, but it does make some sense.
- 39 replies
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- carlos correa
- pablo lopez
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OMG! Levi, why didn't you tag me so I could have seen this before now? I don't know if I should be insulted or complimented! But I did a LMAO when I read your opening line! Am I now a reference point? Is there such a thing now as a "docbauer" post? I LOVE IT! LOL! I've been too caught up in work, life, Huskers, (yes, I'm one of those), and the Twins BS to spend much time here lately, but the Darnold situation is a very interesting one. I'm also conflicted. Despite a poor to mediocre career to this point, let's not forget Darnold is only 27yo, 28 next season, and was a top 3 selection for a reason. Not his fault...as well as others before him...that he was on bad teams and thrust in to a starting job early for a bad team/franchise. He got a "re-set" in SF last season to actually work with a good staff/team. Less we all forget, it used to be your young QB got a good year to sit, learn, and adapt. Even some great QB the past couple of decades...as $ changed the game and expectations...didn't exactly set the world on fire as rookies. I'm as pleasantly surprised as anyone by what Darnold has done. I was very much "who? what?" when signed. But the arm talent has always been there. Again, that's why he was a #3 pick. When I watch him, I see a solid athlete, and a smart one, and he's mentally tougher than I expected considering what he's been through. The arm talent is obvious. I mean, that throw to beat Seattle was MONEY! Frankly, I think he's better than Cousins, and I don't think he's a 1 shot wonder either. But let's rewind for a moment. I'm not a fan of Jim Harbaugh. I'll leave it at that. But he's proven himself over and again as a good head coach. And before the draft last season he stated McCarthy was the best QB in the draft. That resonated with me. As talented athletically as Darnold is, McCarthy is more so. As young as Darnold is, McCarthy is 6 years younger. And the Vikings didn't draft McCarthy because they hoped he'd be the future. They believed he was. The Vikings have a lot of offensive talent...though they need ONE better interior OL to really make the line great and not just good...and a good system, a QB coach on the rise, and one of the best young head coaches in the league. Are the Vikings as**oles if they franchise Darnold and then trade him? Is that even allowed? IDK. My point is the huge amount of $ flexibility they have pending 2025 allows them to keep the talent on hand, make a couple key FA signings, hopefully grab a couple solid players with what little draft capital they have, maybe hold some $ in reserve, and TRUST in O'Connell, his staff, system, and the playmakers on offense to move forward with the talented McCarthy at QB. That's HUGE for the next few years! And it's what was intended when Darnold was signed, and McCarthy was drafted. I like Darnold. I've become a fan. And I can see reasons to keep him. But the long range plans of O'Connell and Kwesi was a 1 year rental for the future. Were I a betting man, I'd still say that's the plan for now. IF they really and truly think Darnold is THE GUY for another 5 years or so, then they HAVE to TRY to recoup trade value for McCarthy to replace some of the talent they won't be able to sign or keep in FA with a more limited budget. I don't have the answer. I'm not sure either road is necessarily a bad one to take. But again, were I a betting man, the Vikes will put their trust in McCarthy and THE SYSTEM in place, and make adds and move forward, and play the long game. How's that for a "docbauer" opinion? 😁
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I understand all the angst with ownership and the payroll as I share all of that angst with you. But this was written as a satirical piece to just sit back for a moment...laugh...and let go of a little bit of that angst. Well done! I laughed all the way through it. Stu, I love your work, but were I the "editor on your shoulder", I would have replaced "front office decision maker" with "ownership representative" and relayed how the entire FO was sent on an all expense trip to Branson Missouri to celebrate the holidays since January 2nd was the real start to the offseason. 😁
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Greg, a thorough and well thought article that I agree 100% with. However, i do believe it's somewhat unwarranted as I don't believe that current ownership is mandating the removal of any of the Twins most expensive contracts to "clear their books". And as @bean5302sstated, the Pohlad's aren't known to say one thing and then do the opposite. Not that i can ever recall anyway. Plus, let's be honest, it would be hard to move Correa and Buxton and their no trade clause contracts anyway. Hypothetically, were I the Ishbia's, I'd actually be thrilled the way the books look right now. In fact, I'd be pretty thrilled with just about the entirety of the franchise. 1] I've got a leader in Falvey that's done a pretty good job with a somewhat limited payroll...decent and slightly escalating before 2024...and a FO that seems to be respected by players and agents. And yes, no messy long term deals that could cripple future payroll. 2] One of the best ballparks in MLB. 3] A pretty solid team in place right now, relatively young, with a lot of potential, even with a few holes that we'd all like to see addressed. 4] A quality scouting department and a MILB system that ranks in the top 5-7 depending on what ranking system by whom you wish to give the most credence to. And while the talent seems to be a little top and bottom heavy with questionable talent depth at the AA level, there's some exciting talent close, and some tantalizing options a few years away. 5] If I have faith in MYSELF as the new owners...and I'm certain they do...I can see the opportunity present in the future of MLB streaming options as well as MY ability to excite and win back a fanbase that's been too often taken for granted...if not ignored...to take this franchise up to another level. In fact, when this team has been in contention in the past, the fans have been almost rabid in their support. No hyperbole. That's how I see this organization. WERE I said buyer, I'd be more than a little pissed if the Twins were to trade away the talented players mentioned in a cost cutting move. I WANT Correa and Buxton and Lopez to keep my new team strong, and let's face it, not only are those guys really good when on the field, they're also "admission to see" types as well. But again, I don't see that being an issue. Other than payroll issues...again, mostly in 2024 and now for 2025 in RECENT history...ownership has largely been hands off, letting Falvey run the team. (Though he's certainly been handcuffed at times, no doubt). And Falvey hasn't been prone to selling off any part of the team in radical moves. He's always attempted to make smart baseball moves without selling off the future. If I could rant for just a moment, I'm just not angry at Falvey for not making moves yet. He's handcuffed for 2025. I just get so frustrated, and almost angry at times, when I look at what just a $150M payroll for 2025 might allow Falvey to do. And that would be less than 2023! And I'm not even talking about some FA mega deal! What if WE could have brought in Goldschmidt on a 1yr $14M deal? Then trade Paddack to the Cubs for one of their seemingly too many young RHOF on a minimum contract to augment the OF? We shed $, get a YOUNG OF instead of a rental. Then move Vazquez for the best offloading deal possible and sign a veteran catcher like Elias Diaz for $2M to run a 60/40 split with Jeffers. Perhaps then we trade 2-3 top 30 prospects to someone like the Dodgers for a young catcher ready, or almost ready, to prepare for the future. Perhaps we can then add a LHRP like Chafin or Poche for around $4M to add that missing, proven arm from the port side to complete the pen. Add and subtract it all up, and you've added a couple veterans and a couple youngsters and the $ lines up to a $150M or less payroll and you haven't traded away TOP players from your team, or decimated your system. And that's with a payroll less than you had in 2023. New ownership can't come soon enough for me. And as I celebrate today being PAYDAY to "fill up" my holiday depleted checking account and PRETEND to be a multi-billionaire looking to buy the Twins, I see a franchise RIPE for the taking knowing I can just run it better and re-invigorate fan interest and embrace the future of earnings potential. RANT and opinion done.
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- carlos correa
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I've always been a big, hopeful, fan of Moran's. He can be really nasty at times. At other times, his control is almost non-existent. And while I had hopes he'd help the Twins at some point in 2025, he's coming back from TJ and control is reputed to be the last thing that comes back from such a procedure. Meanwhile, Funderburk and Headrick are ahead of him on the pecking order, and Nowlin at AAA has great stuff and very likely moves to the pen at some point this season. So the Twins acquired a bat for AAA to replace Chris Williams and provide some depth. That's all that happened here.
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Agree that we could include Wallner here as well. But to be fair, he's pretty much proven himself over the past couple of seasons, beyond his rough couple of weeks to begin 2024. Really pleased by Larnach's growth last season. While 20 HR would be nice, and he's got the power to do it, I'd take teens and 30 + doubles along with that AVG and OB%. Not sure who I like better in the 2 spot, Larnach or Correa. There's reasons to like both of them there. Miranda is also a potentially big key to me. We've seen how good he can be if healthy. He takes over 1B and adds a big RH bat if he is.
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I'm still wondering about Paddack to Baltimore or the Cubs. I think the Cubs for one of their RHOF, possibly with a lower level prospect thrown in, might make sense.
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Just not going in to another arguement how important Castro is to the 2025 Twins and why I'd keep him, potentially extend him, etc. I'm just addressing the current Twins team best I can. I'm also not going to play the "Rocco never has the same lineup anyway" game. Every manager changes their lineup based on guys needing a day off, and changing the lineup at least somewhat depending on the pitcher being faced. Believe it or not, Kelly and Gardenhire did the same. But as currently constructed, VS the dominate RHP side of things; 1] Castro 2] Correa 3] Lewis 4] Wallner 5] Buxton 6] Larnach 7] Miranda 8] Lee 9] Jeffers/ Catcher The best mix against RHP. Hard for the opposition to deploy their pen. Less pressure on the young Lee to hit lower, and expecting some sort of split time at catcher with Jeffers. Wallner and Buxton offer up a strange mix of K's along with tremendous power and production. You just HAVE to have those dangerous bats to fill the #4 and #5 spots. 6-9 don't exactly suck! Obviously Buxton out, and facing a LHP changes the completion of the lineup. But everyone ready to go, that's the optimum lineup daily against RHP.
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- max kepler
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I'm out on Wade, even though he's a solid ballplayer. He's a solid #2 hitter, but he's just not an improvement over what Miranda could/should bring. He also costs more $ and a prospect or two to bring in. But let's talk about Miranda for a moment. His career is by no means a LARGE sample size. But for the bulk of his rookie year we saw the potential. 2023 was just a lost, injured season. And until his back injury in 2024, he was DAMN good. (*to my knowledge, he's never had a back injury before. 2023 was a hurt shoulder). So far in his ML career, he's better against RHP. How is that not a GOOD THING considering that's who throws about 75% of the time?! He's got a .729 OPS and 105 OPS+ so far in his career, and is sitting at a .748 OPS total in regard to RHP. What about against LHP, who make up 25% of the arms in MLB? So far he's got a very playable .683 OPS. That's not horrible, and it might be easily suggested that a regression to the mean might see that number against LHP rise over time. He DOESN'T require anyone to be a time share option, he just needs to be healthy for a full season to keep producing and developing as the young-ish player he is. Period. Yes, he needs to work on his defense. But he's done that to the point where he's actually an OK 3B. Why can't he continue to work at 1B and be an OK 1B? Keaschall has been brought up. His bat and offensive potential looks as though it will play at the ML level. The only way, IMO, his TJ surgery affects him is if doesn't have the arm you want at 3B, perhaps SS as well. If you recall, he's got a ton of college reps at SS, it's just not presumably his best spot. He's got the overall athleticism to play the OF, the glove for 2B, and played a fair amount of 1B in 2024 due to his elbow. While not a direct competition, he might replace Castro in 2026. But as pointed out by @riverbrian, he doesn't have to be added anytime soon. Time is on his side! Personally, I think he'll be ready mid 2025. Yes, Julien might yet be a part of the 1B/DH spot, while being able to cover 2B solidly, but he's got to "fix" his approach. It doesn't matter if his EYE is even better than the umpire. He's got to make better contact than he showed in 2024, where he looked a mess. Sometimes you just have to swing at what's offered, even for a foul ball, to continue working the count and look for something to hit. He's in a very similar boat as Larnach, who seems to have figured it out. I'm not giving up on him yet...boy did he hit in college, MILB, and his rookie season...but SOMETHING was really wrong in 2024. I have him in St Paul to begin 2025. POLANCO is an elephant in the room that i belive should be fairly judged. His knees and ankles have been through a ton. He was terrible in 2024 for Seattle. His days as a 2B option should be labeled as "he can late innings here and there" but any thought of SS or 3B are clearly "break glass in an emergency status". BUT, Nick is right to suggest him as an option. As recently as 2023...which is part of the reason Seattle traded for him...Polanco had a quad slash line of .255/ .335/ .454/ .789 in 343 PA. Folks, those are really good numbers. At 31yo, multiple injuries in his history, but a history of good numbers, should he be completely discounted for a horrendous 2024? I don't believe Polanco's body is going to hold up many more years. But do i think a veteran player with good hands and experience and a great work ethnic and team first attitude could adapt quickly to 1B? Yes. Arraez was the same and adapted. Solano wasn't any sort of primary 1B and actually did OK. Look, I'm not saying signing Polanco is some kind of FIX for 1B. But the BAT was still very good as recently as 2023. If he's actually healthy for 2025, he could potentially be a quality DH/PH/1B option to work with Miranda, and let Miranda still play a little 3B as needed. He'd be the 13th man, but he could be a pretty good 13th man. I'd be inclined for a MILB deal with a split contract that could pay as much as $2M. I'm not sure...with all due respect...that I'd go further than that. There's room on the CURRENT roster for that 13th man. A flier on Polanco might not be a bad idea if the medicals check out.
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If any of these 3, or anyone else, rises from A ball to the Twins this season either something has gone REALLY RIGHT for said arm, or something has gone REALLY WRONG for the Twins. Right now they would be behind Matthews, Morris, Raya, Lewis, and Adams. But if we want to talk about arms that could be fast risers in 2025, these 3 are logical candidates, though as pointed out, Culpepper has already reached AA. I'm betting he gets close to half a season of AAA unless there's just too much depth to allow for such. Prielipp might finish the season in someone's pen to monitor/control innings, but I doubt it's for the Twins. IIRC Lee started slowly, ramped up in the second half with much better results, and a number of those 11 earned runs over his final 8+ were due to the disgusting tip pitching controversy of a certain disgraced and jettisoned catcher in the final game of the season. A couple strong candidates for a big jump include Ty Langenberg and Tanner Hall, both out of the 2023 draft. Langenberg only tossed 7 innings in 2023 and Hall none, so 2024 was, basically, the debut for both. Ty had a pretty good season. Hall, my preseason pick to click in 2024, was inconsistent but did show progress. Kyle Jones might be another one. At AA, Macleod and Ohl could be a couple guys ready to take their performance up another level.
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What's Left at First Base in Free Agency?
DocBauer replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Not a fan of either France or Joe. I guess, at the least, either at the very least offers the ability to play some OF as well as 1B. I'd agree France offers the most upside between the 2. Woof! Right now, i guess you move Vazquez and Paddack and try to save $17M. IMO, you sign Bell for $7M, hopefully, and get some DH/1B/PH ability and leave any RHOF time to Castro and the winner of a Helman-Martin ST fight. Then trade a couple top 20 prospects for a young catcher to work with Jeffers. MAYBE there's enough room to add a cheap veteran FA catcher who's still looking for a job? NOT ideal. But if the ONLY options to add was a 1B/DH/PH bat, I think I'd go there before an OF add. Read a solid arguement the other day of Paddack and a decent prospect to the Cubs for one of their young RHOF. That offers up another OF alternative and still saves $. Then you can afford to add Bell with the Vazquez signing? Again, NOT ideal, but maybe a way to add 2 by trading away 2 and a handful of top 30 prospects?- 81 replies
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What's Left at First Base in Free Agency?
DocBauer replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Are we sure about his back being an issue? He hurt his shoulder and that cost him 2023. His back cost him health/production the 2nd half of 2024. But I don't recall him having back issues previously. As far as weird splits and being more affective against RHP, I could live with that. And while he HAS been better in his short career, I would have to believe there might be some regression to the norm against LHP at some point. A .683 against LHP isn't horrible considering he only faces them about 25% of the time. I do think SOMEONE will probably be added at some point, even if it's a low rent option, as I don't know that anyone but Helman or Julien has any sort of experience playing 1B.- 81 replies
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- carlos santana
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JULIEN: Complete lost last season. @chpettit19has commented about Jalien's swing plane not being good. I'm not knowledgeable enough about that. But I do believe he needs to try and follow the "Larnach" path of just swinging and making some better contact on the breaking stuff, even if results in foul balls. As great as his recognition is, he's going to be anemic just waiting for a fastball. Based on college, his MILB career, and his rookie season in 2023, I think there's a bat that plays at the ML level. But he's got to be more aggressive at times with his swing. I'm crossing my fingers, but last season was really bad. LEE: I see Lee as a consistent. 280 ish batter with contact and a solid OB%. I'm expecting 30+ Dbls and around 14-18 HR per year with good defense. That's not a STAR, but that's a really good, solid ML player. Between being a rookie and hurting his shoulder a couple weeks in, his timing was off, and probably his power as well. I think he's going to be OK. LEWIS: IMO, it all comes down to health for him. His body might have been adjusting to such a long season and he wore down. It's been a while since he played a full year. I'm encouraged by his offseason work with a previous trainer that made him feel "loose" when they worked together before. Between these 3, Julien is the one I'd expect to open at AAA. There's still a couple open spots on the 40 man, IIRC, even before any possible trades of Paddack, and Vazquez. The position side is short and needs depth. But I maintain trading Castro really shorts the roster in many ways and he may be too valuable to move. But SOMETHING is probably going to happen in January to free up some $ for an add or two. And I'm still expecting a prospect or two to be moved in an add, youth for youth I'd bet. And that might just be a catcher from someone, possibly the Dodgers. TODAY, I'm expecting Keirsey to get 1st shot as the backup CF. And as of TODAY, I'd expect 1 of Helman or Martin as a utility player off the bench. Since Helman can play 7 spots, I'd lean to him at the moment. That doesn't leave much in reserve at AAA. So again, I'm seeing a couple additions after subtraction. It's rather messy, and not optimal, but it's where we sit TODAY.
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- edouard julien
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What's Left at First Base in Free Agency?
DocBauer replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Just saw that! 6 minutes ago according to the article I read. LOL $12M for 1 year? Sorry, but no, not for a 39yo hoping to have a 3rd straight rebound season. Makes my argument for Bell all that more poignant.- 81 replies
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- carlos santana
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