DocBauer

Wonderful and fun article! Absolutely brought a smile to my face and tickled my funny bone! And really, every comment made here is smart and logical, whether you agree or disagree. And this the 5th-6th-7th OP to address Rosario over the last year plus. And there will probably be at least a couple more before 2021 begins. But let me lay out a few personal truths that I believe to be reality. I mean, why else am I here? LOL 1] There is some weird misconception about RBI with modern day analytics that I don't get. You want to score mkre runs than the other team. That's how you win. There is some misconception that I just don't understand that seems to state ANY decent hitter with power should be able to knock in runs if he has anyone on base in front of him. Really? Is it that simple? You tell me. I remember YEARS ago now when a younger Manny Ramirez didn't want to hit cleanup for the Indians because he didn't feel ready and didn't want the pressure. He enjoyed hitting and producing lower in the lineup. As I recall back then, he often hit 6-7. Of course, he grew and adapted and became a tremdous player. So by the "anyone with power and hit ability with opportunity" mantra, Kepler should just slide in to that spot. Or maybe Kepler as a rookie. Why not? They have hit ability and power. Look, I'm NOT saying Rosario is any kind of future HOF hitter. But he has produced. If ANYONE could be trusted to produce RBI, then managers woukd take 3-4 names, put them in a cap, and let someone draw out the heart of the lineup. SOMEONE here at TD had an amazing article after last season where some expert posted RBI success ratio over a full season and Rosario was near the top, despite his 2nd half lull. (I really wish someone could find that). Rosario is a proven RBI producer. Sometimes, he produces in a way that leaves you almost speechless! He has had moments that I believe only Puckett and Oliva could have ever produced. I laugh when people talk about RBI being a disposable stat. 2] Defensively, healthy, Rosario is quality with good range and one of the best arms I have ever seen. For every silly overthrow he makes, he has twice as many throws that nail a guy on the paths or at home. For that matter, for every silly mistake he makes on the basepaths, he makes a great read or jukes out a pitcher of fielder to make something happen. I've stated many times that I can take the mistakes Eddie makes for the 3 times he makes something great happen. 3] He produces, and brings a vibrance to the team that is hard to quantify. He may not be the leader that someone like Cruz is, but he brings a certain kind of energy that is important On the other hand: 1] Despite all his production and exuberance, and his innate ability to come through with magical moments, he is still prone to wild SO numbers and prone to chasing. It's one thing to be a bad ball hitter...Puckett and Oliva...but very different when you just swing at stuff to consistently that you just can't do anything with. While a SO might be better than a double play, not putting the ball in play or being able to just stroke a SF with runners in position is a real detriment. He's one of my favorite players. I'd love to have him back. I'd love to see him take his game to another level. I've followed him throughout his milb career. I have no illusions that someone like Kirilloff would replace his production immediately. But at some point, you HAVE to examine your roster and address finances and the future. Cruz brought back may be a factor here as well. But you have to either make a $ commitment to a nice player, though flawed, or trust in your young talent that could be as good or better. While a lover of Eddie, despite his production and everything I love about him, he remains the most easily replaceable regular on the roster going forward.

THIS 100%. I stated in the off-season thread this was going to be a rebuilding year despite the presence of some very good talent. Since I like this post so much, I want to comment on the various points. But please keep in mind that in the Omaha market, the only game broadcast was the Gab debacle, so I am talking slightly out of my backside from highlights and articles. 1] Jefferson looks even better than could be expected. But how in hell can this team just NOT find a 3rd WR? I mean, Johnson actually looked like a late round find last year and supposedly bad a great camp. So far, nothing. Beebe seemed like a find a good story initially, but why is he on the roster? NOTHING from the 3rd WR spot yet again! Is it play calling? Hollins, on the PS offers at least some potential. Good enough to have been activated last season. Osborn was worthy of a draft choice and has some skills. You mean to tell me we can't find ONE GUY to be at least a semi-decent 3rd WR option here? I can't begin to tell you how much of a fan of Rudolph I am as a person and a clutch, smart player. But he also can't stretch a defense if his hair was on fire. Smith and Conklin have similar size and length and have far better quickness and speed. Both have shown flashes. But both are invisible at the moment. 2] You have no choice but to let the kids play at CB. That's all you have! And no matter coach speak, they KNEW they were in a re-build based solely on CB, if nothing else. Play the kids, rotate the kids, bench a kid for a game, whatever, but toss them out there and let it sort itself out for the rest of the season and re-examine when it's all done. 3] From the rushing numbers, I'm guessing Samia is an OK or good run blocker. From what little I've seen and what I've heard, he's a revolving door as a pass blocker. But either he was a wasted 4th round pick, 2nd team All American, or you stick with him and see. Is Elflein really any better? Weird off-season and ramp up or not, I'm still stunned Udoh hasn't been moved to G before now. Or do they really like him at RT and move O'Neil to LT? Then why draft Cleveland? However you do it, just make sure Udoh and Cleveland get actual game reps to get ready for 2021. NT looked to be solid before Pierce opted out. Not a lot you can do about that. And Stephen moving to NT made the most sense. He sure as hell isn't a 3 technique DT! But is Johnson ever going to step up and do ANYTHING? I thought I saw some flashes last year. Let him play and see if he bas a future or cut bait. And as !evil stated, let Lynch and Watts play. At least there is potential there! Nice to see Wonnom is getting some reps at least. EXTREMELY disappointed Willekes got injured. I think he has a future as a sort of Robison type player. (Smart, high effort player with better athleticism than given credit for). Somebody tell me what Yarbrough is doing on the roster? Play these kids you drafted in a rebuild season and let them gain experience! You aren't going anywhere this year. And for goodness sake, if the offensive part of your team is the best part right now, do SOMETHING to develop your young TE on roster and find ONE GUY at WR worth keeping around.

Let's just forget about 2020 financial losses across MLB and assume everyone is OK and willing to keep payrolls status quo for 2021. Even with some raises, re-signs, FA signings combined with some payroll coming off the books, the Twins could afford to bump their payroll closer to the $150-160M mark and still be FINE. All things being equal for anything resembling a normal season. And I could even see Bauer liking the idea of pitching for the Twins. And while it remains to be seen if he really wants to continue his year to year approach, the demand for his services will be high. He's going to be looking at $25-30M. Can the Twins afford that? Even for a single year? Maybe...all things being equal and level. But the Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, etc, won't offer him as much or more? They won't offer him a 5 or 6 year deal for $250M plus that it would be impossible for him to turn down? Sorry I don't see him coming to the Twins. Adding to the rotation by re-signing Oddorizi, or making another solid Oddo/Maeda trade while developing Duran and Balazovic and others is the way to go. Without the crazy finances and an uneven financial playing field, you build the best and deepest team and system you can. Hopefully, from the progress we've seen thus far, the system will soon resemble Cleveland, Houston and others in regard to pitching development. Bauer would be great to have for a year. But I just don't see it happening.

As Trov succinctly pointed out, there has long been shifts and defensive re-alignments. It's just gone to a whole new level the past few years through analytical research. For every hit that makes it through the infield where a player would have been in a traditional alignment, there are probably a dozen outs made by these shifts. If this wasn't so, the shifts wouldn't be happening. I think, however, that strategy always shifts, pun partially intended, lol. As guys DO bunt or change their approach and begin to slap the ball the other way instead of looking for maximum barrell contact, you very well could either see fewer shifts or not as exaggerated forms of such.

Just tossing out a couple random thoughts: 1] Garver is NOT the hitter he was in 2019. But who is, from a catcher perspective? Guy might have had the best season for a catcher in the modern era or MLB. But he's also NOT the hitter he was in 2020 either. From most accounts he is a solid, average to above average catcher defensively overall. His bat history through collagen the minors, his rookie year and 2019 indicate he has a quality bat for the position. Teams need catchers and know what be is, and isn't, and he bas real value while being cost controlled. The Twins will listen to offers but won't be shopping him. They will want he and Jeffers as shared position mates. 2] Polanco did have a bad 2020. I almost want to say who didn't? And it wasn't just the Twins who saw regression and strange swings this season. Healthy, I think he will rebound nicely. We can debate his defense and many of us will agree to disagree how good or not he is there. But he's a nice player. 3] The offense needs some fundamental changes, but not an overhaul. How much do you...staff and FO I mean...dismiss 2020? But I do have to wonder if this lineup is too HR happy and an overall approach toward contact and not just swinging for the fences all the time, (or so it seems), would be in order. HOWEVER, a healthy Polanco and Arraez are a couple good HITTERS. If Rosario is indeed gone...we'll see...I have no outlandish prediction that Kirilloff or Larnach will immediately replace his production. I think either/both could be more complete and better HITTERS than Rosario. This could lead to being a more balanced lineup while still having PLENTY of power. (IMO, Kepler and Sano are better hitters than they showed this season as well, with Kepler still capable of another level if he can learn to spray the ball better). A nice replacent for Marwin...don't have a name at this point...and a solid 4th OF...maybe Pillar??...could further add to said balance.

Wade's biggest problem is 4 fold. 1] He has pop and occasional HR power, but not corner power. 2] He has yet to prove he can play CF at the ML on a daily or semi-daily basis. 3] He's been stuck behind the more productive and powerful Cave at the moment, and just barely ahead of more talented OF options ready or about ready. 4] Despite being on "watch" prospect lists, he tanked 2019 at Rochester and did little to nothing in a brief appearance with the Twins. Sounds like a career nosedive to me. Except for ONE THING. I have ZERO illusions Wade is going to be some quality MLB starting OF. In fact, when I look at the Twins OF depth, I have a hard time seeing where he fits in. But despite so-so production, the guy I saw this season was an absolute battled at the plate. He actually looked like he knew what be was doing at the plate, which I didn't see last year. I not only saw solid defense but I saw a couple great plays and he surprised me by his defense at 1B. There is SOMETHING tbere to work with, be it the Twins or someone else. Can he play a good enough CF? Can he take those good AB and turn more of them in to hits, much less the occasional extra base hits? If Cave is gone, and he progresses, he bas a shot as a legitimate 4th OF option. But the OF talent in the Twins system tells me he's gone in a season or two max. Cellistino should push him out at least.

I'm agreeing with Cody here that the idea of blowing up a team that has provided so much success over 2 yrs and won back to back division championships is silly and not really the point. This is really about internal self-evaluation and opportunity to tweak the roster. The biggest problems is NOBODY bas any idea roster size for 2021, how the losses of 2020 will affect payroll OR FA and arbitration issues. Right now, the best anyone can do is just project "safe" financial numbers and speculate a full season and standard roster. Some things are going to stay the same, such as the universal DH. I suspect there will be a slightly expanded number of playoff teams, but probably not to the same degree as this year. Really hard to put the genie back in the bottle, especially when you see financial rewards and increased fan interest. I also suspect, especially with all the milb changes that are coming, that managers, staffs, FO and even ownership liked the 28 man roster. I'm actually expecting and hoping we will see a 27-28 man roster going forward. But I am waxing and drifting here. I believe the Twins have a wide open window here, despite frustration. The FO is guarded, but also stated that they believe a review is in order. Shouldn't that always be the case?! 1] At some point, finances and young talent force changes. I wouldn't be upset or disappointed if the FO stepped up to the plate and kept Rosario on a smaller deal vs arbitration. But as much of a fan as I am of Eddie, he is the most easily replaceable man in the lineup. Whether traded solely or packed or let go, it's time to open up an OF spot for Kirilloff, Rooker and Larnach. There could, potentially, be room for 2 of them. Additionally, one of Cave or Wade has to be gone. There's no room for both going forward. They are different players, and yet redundant to keep both. Some veteran bat with quality defense is needed for depth and security to cover Buxton. Pillar is often mentioned. Fine. Maybe him. But I'm sure other options may present themselves. But someone similar would be wonderful. 2] I seriously doubt the FO is going to shop Buxton or Sano. There is so much talent, so much potential there for 2 guys who are just ready to hit their prime years, that you just don't gamble the potential loss after a season as crazy as 2020 was. But you at least listen if someone calls. 3] Garver had one of the greatest seasons in MLB history for a catcher in 2019. Did anyone really think he would maintain that? But he is NOT the lethargic bat he was in 2020 either. If I were in charge of a ML team hurting at catcher, I'd be calling the Twins trying to peel him away based on his defensive improvement and his history of at least solid to good production. If I'm the Twins, I'd say no way unless you offer up something I can't refuse. We could easily have one of the best 1-2 punch battery for the next couple of years. Now, I wouldn't mind the Twins stepping up for a nice AAAA or split contract option on a guy for depth. 4] A healthy infield for 2020 is fine the way it is. But I think Marwin is toast. His defense was excellent, but the bat seriously regressed and he just looked slow when running. Adrianza has a great glove, but is he the "nice" contributor we saw the previous two seasons coming off a bad year? I don't want to spend $8-9M like we did for Marwin, but we need a guy who can play acceptable defense at multiple spots with a decent offensive game. Just ready to assume Blankenhorn is ready, but the FO knows way more than I do. And health and tough luck doesnt want me to bank on Gordon yet either. So I'm either going to re-sign Adrianza, or I'm looking for an option I like better. When your biggest worry about your infield is just depth and getting everyone healthy, you aren't in a bad spot. 5] The rotation is good to great as long as a healthy Odorizzi is brought back. Want someone else? Have we forgotten just how solid he is? Then find another Oddo or Maeda trade. Then make a solid back of the rotation FA signing or cheap trade. We need one more arm to compete with Dobnak and provide depth for now. Unless someone surprises, you re-sign May. Romo should be gone at this point. It's just time. You don't let a high velocity and productive arm like May's walk. He may never develop in to the potential closer you hoped for, but he's usually very good and I think there is another level he can still reach with just a bit more consistency. I'd love to have Clippard back on a 1yr. I don't think he's done yet. Whether through FA or trade, I'd like to see the Twins bring in one outside arm similar to Nathan. What I mean by that is a guy who is under 30 who may be ready for the next level based on opportunity, and working with an outstanding pitching coach who may unlock something more. The FO HAS believed in Thorpe. And I think with good reason. But something has been very OFF all year for this kid. I have been so disappointed. If he's still kept, maybe its time to make him a BP option where he could potentially excel. Does the FO still see Colina as a viable SP option if he can get that 3rd pitch? If not, like Graterol, convert him and don't look back. 6] Not player related, but examine the staff. The failed offense for 2020 is blamed so much on losing Rowson. Is that fair or accurate? Offense was down across the league. Injuries and short ramp up and SSS and a crazy season can't be denied. But is the approach right? Players say nothing really changed. Is that true? Was it just a weird year? Or has the whole order fallen in love with the long ball fundamentals were lost? You don't just BLOW UP a talented team with a nice mix of veterans and young players after 2 division flags and post season appearances even if the end result was futile. You look at depth in the system and places where you can tweak, re-tool and augment and develop. This team needs about 5 additions from what they already have to complete the bench and add a couple arms to round out the rotation and pen to keep that window open. With more talent on the way.

The jist of the article is very accurate, but remains limited in scope as these options are only some of what may/will be available. Further, there are trade possibilities as well. The Twins DO NEED to add a couple of SP. Re-stating what I have expressed previously, a healthy Odorizzi is probably the easiest and smartest play to make. Does the FO have another Odorizzi or even Maeda trade target in mind? Great! But Oddo back just makes so much sense for both sides. But they will need another back of the rotation arm to compete with Dobnak and help hold the fort until Duran is ready. (And others). Maybe I'm forgetful or being naive, but it seems to me any sort of closer option is developed, not signed. And I can't honestly remember the last closer that was traded for. I think about the closers that the Twins have had going back decades now, and they came from within, or were acquired via trade like Aguillera, (though he was a solid SP at the time) or Nathan, similar to Pressly, acquired as a set-up man turned to a closer. Despite depth and prospect arms, trade or FA, I think the Twins need to add another experienced arm. But I don't see a guaranteed closer type waltzing through the door. It comes down to the right arm to help, or maybe ready for the next step forward. They also need a versatile utility player who has a decent bat to help across the infield, especially should Donaldson have any flare ups. There are a couple guys here that are intriguing to me. And I don't know that I'm overly concerned if they hit RH or LH. I could easily add a veteran 4th OF who can play a solid CF and be able to contribute offensively. TOTALLY appreciate the intent of the OP, and some of these guys could be options and shouldn't be dismissed as such. But the need for such players, so early in the process, is probably more the point and not necessarily THESE options.

His numbers, even this year, speak for themselves. Even with a late slump and his rest due to a bum knee his production and OPS were outstanding. And he was the only run producer in the Astros disaster. Regarding his knee, never any reports it was anything serious. If it was, they kept it a big secret. In a normal 162G season, he would have rested, maybe hit the 10 man IL, then potentially raked the rest of the season. I put no stock in a poor week plus at the end of 2020. Unless there is a big offer from someone...and I just have a hard time buying that considering the financial affect of 2020...he needs to be brought back for his production and influence. That being said, with all due respect, it could be a miscalculation to get involved in a bidding war for him, no matter how great he has been, and still appears to be. The end IS coming sometime in the next season or two. Scenarios: 1] 1yr at approximately $15M, which was his first year salary. A small bump? Maybe some bonus money? I'm OK with that. 2] A similar deal to the $15M 1st yr and $12M 2nd yr he originally signed. Again, perhaps a small bump or some bonus $ for incentives. And I would be fine with a larger buyout for year 2, maybe $4-5M. Helps protect both parties. 3] Two years at $30M with the 2nd yr guaranteed with a plate appearance clause and the same $4-5M buyout. Again, both parties protected. And if he met the automatic 2nd yr clause, it means he is producing well. 4] Two years at around $30M fully guaranteed. I have qualms about this one, but could swallow it. You're risking the 2nd yr financially, though in reality, it's a potentially poor/bad 1yr deal as he surely has enough in the tank for at least one more season. Anything more than this, though I want him back, I have to look elsewhere. It just becomes too much of a $ risk with all factors considered.

Great article and even timely, though the Hot Stove is a ways away. The bench failed a lot in 2020. Like ANY team or ANY player, how much stock do you place on any under performing player in a short and crazy season? First of all, shame on anyone to just blast Marwin or Adrianza. While Gonzalez may have not lived up to his contract, be did a fine job in '19. While he looked slow and his bat disappeared in this past season, his defense was largely good to great. Adrianza continued to play fine defense, though his OK bat also disappeared. I was pleasantly surprised by Cave in CF defensively, but his offense is just so inconsistent. (Not so sure Wade hasn't surpassed him). Avilla was a smart signing, seemed solid behind the plate, but appears done. While I doubt the primary lineup will be different other than Rosario...finances and young talent...the bench needs to be addressed. I don't know who at this point, though the OP presents options, a 5th STARTING CALIBER infielder needs to be brought on board. Thats what Marwin was tbe past two years. The Twins need that 5th guy to play decent defense with a solid bat to fill in where he can, even if be isn't a normal SS option. Next, tbe Twins need to decide if Adrianza's bat is dead, or was it just a bad year. The guy plays great defense and his bat was solid for his role in 2018-19. Can you count on him in '21? On paper, Blankenhorn and Gordon are almost perfect replacements. ONE GAME and a couple balls be didn't get to doesn't diminish my hope that Blankenhorn couldn't be a nice super-sub. But I'm not going to bet on him to start next season. Talk about hard luck cases, Gordon has dealt with everything from intestinal issues...seemingly resolved...to injuries where Adrianza got promoted ahead of him, to a bad covid situation that robbed him of most of his projected 2020 taxi squad season. The ability is still there to be a quality player, at least in a reserve role. For a team with a still wide open window, I am hoping for Blankenhorn and Gordon in 2021 but NOT banking on them and I am looking via trade or FA for a viable Marwin replacement and very possibly/probably an Adrianza replacement as well. I'm also looking to move on from Cave as well. I like him, but as stated, I Want someone more consistent in everything they do. I want someone to play good defense and provide some more consistent offense. Everyone seems to state they want a RH hitter for this spot. I'm not sold on that. Kepler, Kirilloff and Larnach are all LH. Rooker is RH. So is Buxton. Only Kepler can fill in at CF. Last I checked, most pitchers are still RH. I just want someone to be a legitimate option offensively and defensively for that spot. I think catcher is solid as is with Jeffers and Garver. And Garver is absolutely not the hitter we saw in '20. But it would be very smart to sign a veteran MLB/AAA guy to compete and provide depth. Spend $ for a Marwin replacement. Do the same for Adrianza..maybe. let Blankenhorn and Gordon earn their opportunity. Find a legit 4th OF. Grab the best AAAA catcher you can.

I am going to split hairs here and say RE-LOAD but with SOME RE-TOOLING. Let's remember that right now, we have no idea how long of a season 2021 will be, how many fans will be allowed OR just exactly how payroll can be managed by any or all clubs, including the Twins. Are there teams out there...lets just say the Yankees and Dodgers because they simply have more $ than anyone...that may have lost less than any other team financially, and are willing to invest in large contracts for 2021? Do mid market and small market teams have to step back and lower payroll? It's a blank canvas that nobody really knows how to fill right now, and they're going to have to do some hopeful speculating. I don't think anyone is exactly destitute, but I think FA will absolutely be down, and arbitration will be interesting, to say the least. I wouldn't be surprised to see a few surprise trades, surprise non-tendered and maybe even a few arbitration players "settling" for smaller amounts just to avoid possible non-tender status. It would be ridiculous or at least short-lived, for any team to project 2021 performance based solely on what happened in 2020. Offense was down across the board all across MLB, not just for the Twins, with a lot of strange head scratching final numbers everywhere. But to get to the Twins specifically... 1] DH: You re-sign Cruz for 1yr at around $15M if possible. IMO, that should be his value based on economics and age. You might toss in a bonus number or two. You might do a 2nd year for a lower value but with additional bonus levels, OR, make it guaranteed if be hits a certain performance level such as number of AB. A 2nd year might also have a $4-5M buyout to help protect both sides. If someone offers up 2 at $30M guaranteed, I think you have to blink if you're the Twins. 2] OF: While Eddie is a fine ballplayer, at least ML average for a LF, and I'm a fan, it may be time to shop him for whatever you can get. There are 3 bats ready or nearly ready. I keep Buxton due to talent, age and projection. I'm just not ready to move on yet. He began to protect his body better this season and the hit to the head at the end of the season is not a Byron issue. I'm also sold in keeping Kepler, though I'd still like to him slide down to more of an RBI slot. The change I make is a 4th OF who can play CF and perform decently with the bat. I don't buy said OF has to be RH, but it wouldn't hurt if be was. I like Cave, like his improved defense in CF, but I want someone who can simply perform more consistently. Kepler may be ready for a job. So might Rooker, I'm betting Larnach isn't far behind. Rosario gone open a up at least 1 spot. But I'm looking for a nice, quality 4th OF that can play CF and bring something to the offense. 3] INFIELD: I'm status quo here, and sorry if you don't like that, lol. You give me a healthy Donaldson, healthy Polanco, healthy Arraez and a still young and uber talented bat in Sano for at least one more year and I'm happy on paper at least. I want someone to be Marwin 2.0 who can fill in, especially at 3B, with a solid, decent bat. And then I'm not sure about Adrianza. He has a great glove, actually hit solidly for 2 years, and shouldn't cost much. Is he the 2018-19 performer or the 2020 version? Move on if there is a better fit. Blankenhorn and Gordon could be perfect, in house options. But I'd be looking for some smart options to fill those spots and move on and let Blankenhorn and Gordon force the issue. 4] CATCHER: I am 100% sold on Jeffers and Garver here. Garver had a horrible season, but there is nothing in his career portfolio to indicate he isn't at least solid and 2020 was an aberration. I'd love a flier on a decent 3rd AAAA option with some experience for depth. 5] ROTATION: Past Maeda, Berrios and Pineda, we need one more QUALITY guy you should be able to count on. Sorry, but unless there is enough room made from trades, non-tendered and the such, for a $25-30M deal for Bauer or Paxton, etc, I just don't see it. But I could easily see another Odorizzi or Maeda trade taking place. Who I don't know. But this FO is sharp and both those trades were very good. But why not just bring back Odorizzi at that point? He is a quality, sometimes dominate pitcher, for 5-6 innings. Healthy after a lousy luck 2020, he and Pineda provide a 3/4 rotation pairing that pitch about as well as most #2's on a given night. It could be a 1year prove it or a 3year. Either way, fair value, IMO, is around $14-15M. Next is some sort of flier. Even if Hill wants to keep pitching, he's solid but not what he was. And he's only a half season asset. Dobnak is the projected 5th SP and I like him, and a little upisde/potential, despite a couple bad games near the end. This is where you get creative like something similarto the Bailey signing last year. Not saying HIM specifically, but similar. Hey, in a normal 162 game season, Bailey may have been good the second half if/when healthy. Duran and Balazovic could, be close. Same with Chalmers and Corona, though I'm starting to think Colina's BP destination might have been decided. 6] BULLPEN: I'm re-signing May. Probably 2yrs at around $4M per. I'm betting nobody will offer more based on market speculation. But I'm betting on velocity and potential not yet realized. I might go slightly more but don't think I have to. Love Romo but think the tide has turned and it's just time to move on. I think Clippard has shown he can still get the job done and I think I'd bring him back. The FO has not been shy about promotion and audition. Alcala shows all the ability in the world to be an important piece going forward. I believe a healthy Littell...hope there isn't something bad lingering there...could rebound next season. I think Poppen still has a real chance as a middle guy. I'd love to see both Colina and Chalmers stick as rotation arms as long as possible, but both have the stuff to make an impact in the pen. If the Twins haven't soured on him, I'd move Thorpe to the pen next season to develop him as a RP. I would happily see the Twins make a move for a BP arm. But for all of my years of watching and following baseball, seldom do teams trade for or sign a CLOSER. Those guys are developed. Maybe Rogers gets tweaked and returns to form. Maybe May, Duffey or Alcala is the guy to take the job. YEARS apart, but MAYBE the FO makes a Maeda/Nathan type trade where they find a guy just primed for the next step. But to me, you take what you already have, and just keep it, promote the young arms, and look for that one good deal if you can find it. In short: Rosario, Cave, Marwin, Hill, Romo gone...possibly Adrianza. Get the best utility INF you can, bring back Cruz if possible, re-sign Odorizzi unless there is someone you really like better, sign a flier to compete for the 5th spot, keep May and try to add ONE GUY via FA or trade you really like with upside and keep developing within. Re-load with some re-tooling. You have to temper disappointment for a moment to remember/realize, this team, as it was constructed, has been one of the best teams in MLB for the past 2 years. Blow it up?! PLEASE! How about something approaching a normal season, with a normal ramp, and tweak the bench and augment the rotation and pen from what you already have?

Spent over an hour posting my thoughts...couple family and beer breaks...and then lost EVERYTHING I intended to say with some internet glitch! So here goes a brief and angry quick recap: 1] Fans, who knows. Life moves on and needs to move on. Football on all levels may show us if fans can be involved. I want to say there will be. 2] Cruz: He's still good. Late season injury and rest dont matter. Good 1 or 2yr deal similar to what he signed is about right. Weird financial numbers and the DH in the NL shouldn't blow his numbers out of the water. He means too much to not keep him on a reasonable deal. And be wants to stay. $15M approx and a 2nd season around $12 with maybe a higher buyout. Worth it. 3] Roster needs abridged version: RH hitting 4th OF, maybe, even though I like Cave despite his inconsistency. Really improved his defense this year! Wade might be even better and ready to supplant him despite less power. Can't keep everyone. Cellistino not ready yet. Want to keep Kepler in RF as much as possible. Despite the original 26 man roster, will they move to 27 or the 28 we saw this season? No matter what, no way to keep everyone. Trades or walking papers will happen. Stinks! Because we're talking about letting good talent go. Maybe we get something good back? Hope so. Still worried about that extra RH OF bat besides Rooker. Hate to say it, but starting to think Rosario may be gone for $ and opportunity for Kirilloff and Larnach. Need infield depth. Marwin is gone, Adrianza might be back cheap. Gordon and Blankenship not ready YET. Give me a good, versatile and decent bat for the bench. SP is solid with potential. But we need Oddo back, or a similar Oddo or Maeda trade. That completes 1-4. Then we need at least 1 flier to compete with Dobnak and rookie potential for the 5 spot. Catcher should be OK, but I'd feel better with Avilla back on an invite or someone similar. Pen needs May back, unless the market shifts and he gets some great offer. Closers come from within. There is no inexpensive FA option other than fantasy. We have the nucleus in place. And we have a couple really live arms close. Room's $ can be spent elsewhere, sorry to say. So so on Clippard, but wouldn't mind him back. 4] With offense down across all of MLB and the Twins, how much blame is there? Did Rowson make that much of a difference? If Rocco and the FO think so, then make the change. There is too much talent on this team for the results we saw. Power ru,as and will always rule. But you still have to get a hit once in a while or have to make enough contact for a sac fly. 5] Going forward, do what they have been doing. Build the system. Keep making smart trades. But don't be complacent. Tweak what is already a good team/roster.

Right now, I read nothing in to this other than a very disappointed guy lamenting the end of the season who is at least a little unsure about what tomorrow brings. I won't put words in his mouth, but almost sounds like an apology for letting the fans down. IF he doesn't come back, a classy exit line. Nothing more than tnat. Honestly, I expect him back. Even with some powerful and tantalizing arms like Alcala and other SP converts, you don't just give up on a quality and productive arm like his who is so close to reaching the next level. And I just don't believe the market is going to price him out of the Twins brining him back.

Initially, I was going to refrain from saying anything since I didn't want to knee jerk any thoughts. A few hours later, I feel calm enough and compelled to be able to speak/write calmly. Just understand, while ever the optimist, I am PO'd, disappointed, frustrated and borderline embarrassed. But calm now, lol. 1] Baldelli has done a great job thus far, even if I disagree with him on occasion. Calls for him to be replaced are emotional and misguided at best. That being said, I believe he pulled Maeda and Berrios too early. It's the playoffs! You play for NOW and not tomorrow. You may love and trust your pen, but when you have a pair of quality SP doing their job, you trust in them first and shorten the game. Absolutely do not agree with removing Jeffers in game 1. Made zero sense then and makes ZERO sense now. 2] The starting pitching did not lose these games. Maeda and Berrios were GOOD, and had mkre in the tank, IMO. And while there was some crumbling of the pen, to be sure, I don't feel the pen really lost these games. (Mkre on that to come). Despite some less than stellar moments late in the year, the Twins had one of the best pens around this season. Time and again they performed including bullpen games when injuries affected the rotation. There remains room for improvement, and there will be a couple new faces via trade, FA or promotion of young arms. And yes, I want May back. You don't just walk away from arms like that with mostly good results, especially when you see another level oh so close for them to reach. Just being calm, I'm excited as can be that the rotation in 2021 begins with Maeda and Berrios and Pineda. The Twins then need a healthy Odorizzi back for next season, OR, an equivalent Oddorizi/Maeda FA signing or trade acquisition. May seem easier said than done, but they've already done it. Honestly, might be best to bank on Oddo, a known quantity. They then need a decent, smart move similar to Pineda, Hill or Bailey type to compete with Dobnak and prospects. The pitching was good in 2020 and mostly good in these 2 vastly disappointing games. There is room to continue to grow and get even better. But again, I don't think pitching lost this series. That brings us to the #1 problem with this frustrating and embarrassing early exit: 3] The offense/lineup needs to be re-worked. The problem is, who and how? Offense was remarkably down all across MLB this season. The Twins were absolutely not the only team to see nosedive in overall performance as a team, or from individuals. Honestly, do Garver, Kepler and Polanco, etc, need to be given up on and jettisoned because of a crazy, weird, mixed up season? If true, then there will be a TON of guys across baseball moved or given walking papers based solely on this crazy year. Sorry folks, it isn't happening. There will be a whole lot of "re-sets" for all teams in 2021. Power is king in MLB, but it always has been. We all know this. There are a lot of ways to score runs and there still are today despite the changes in the game. But even 20/30/40 years ago, power has always been productive, proven and coveted. Maybe more so in the post season when you face top pitching and stringing together a series of hits to score becomes futile at times. But there is a major difference between having POWER while also having the ability to HIT a ball somewhere and even make CONTACT. I can't and won't single out any player on this roster. Nor will I point an easy finger towards the hitting coaches. There is an ancient expression that goes: "those who live by the sword die by the sword". Unfortunately...covid, short ramp up, injuries, adjustments by the opposition, or bad luck for bad seasons for multiple players...the Twins didn't HIT well this season, especially when it mattered most. How many times did a batter, a batter with power even, fail to get a runner in with something as simple as a sac fly? I get a SO is better than a double play. But dang it, sometimes putting the ball in play is much better than a SO or an infield/foul pop up! With no blame pointed at any individual, the offense has been the most disappointing part of 2020 and this disappointing/frustrating early exit. Is Arraez the only HITTER on the team as currently constructed? I'd like to think not when I look at the talent on hand, and past production. And maybe we can dismiss a lot of poor BA and OB to this whole crazy season. Or maybe the FO and coaching staff need to re-evaluate a few spots here and there and find a change or two that can provide more balance. As for me, I am ecstatic there was baseball in 2020 and I enjoyed the hell out of watching my Twins have another great season, despite an ugly finish. They have won back to back banners and have a window of opportunity that still appears wide open when I look at the roster and what is coming up! And I will be kept a little bit warmer when winter hits due to the Hot Stove and impending 2021 ST.

Astudillo is clearly there for utility purpose and not necessarily as a catcher. I would be shocked to see him behind the plate at all. But it does make one wonder why they kept Avilla in this scenario. Surprised but not shocked that both Odorizzi and Dobnak are on the roster. But really disappointed Alcala isn't there in place of someone. Again, maybe in place of Avilla. I just don't get Kirilloff over Wade this late in the season. If he gets an opportunity I hope he does well and I look forward to seeing him excel as a Twin for years to come. But a rookie debuting for a playoff game? I just don't get it.

Both Kepler and Rosario seem to be heating up at the right time, which is a positive. I know this going to sound silly, but Sano struggling lately may not be a bad thing. I guess he's been battling a neck "thing", or so reported. But he is what he is, which is good and DANGEROUS when he is in a groove. He may be just about ready to get in one of his good grooves. I'd go with Jeffers over Garver for game 1. We can survive OK without 1 of Donaldson, Buxton or Arraez. Not sure we can with 2 or all 3. And call me concerned. The Twins aren't sharing, nor should they. All 3 are very good! I'm hoping/praying that a cramp, a close call to the helmet, and a minor tweak kept all 3 out the last couple of games as purely precautionary. I want all 3 guys healthy and ready to roll for the Twins to make some noise! But am I crazy to be most concerned about Arraez?

That was fun! Thank you! This team was built, and built beautifully IMO, for 162 game season. We got 60 games instead, with all its weird parameters, including no milb season, taxi squads, short ramp up, rule changes, and even minor injuries that had huge effects. And STILL the Twins had a great season and won the ALC for a 2nd season. That flag means something to me as a fan and can't be taken away. I place no asterik on it. I despise reality TV programs, but no matter how 2020 turns out, this has been a sort of Survivor contest for everyone involved. I think the Twins have as good of a shot as anyone! I have only 2 real concerns as we enter the final stages: 1] The idea of a traditional closer may be over-rated, but the Twins might have won 40 if their great and deep pen had that ONE GUY they could have truly counted on. 2] The offense is not anemic. Small ball has it's place here and there still in today's game. But history has shown come playoff time that stringing together multiple hits doesn't usually equate to winning. Can the Twins lineup, built for power, still make enough contact to sacrifice a runner to 3rd or make a simple sacrifice out to score a runner from 3rd base with 0 or 1 Out? Love what you did Parker!

I don't think the Astros are necessarily a BAD baseball team despite limping in to the expanded playoffs. And I see a strong similarity in them and Cleveland in that via trade and development, they always seem to find pitching. This is an area where I think/hope/expect the Twins organization is becoming. But at some point, there has to be acknowledgment that the Twins staff is pretty darn good from top to bottom right now. I know Rogers hasn't been his past/normal self. And I don't want to get in to another debate about numbers and peripherals and how he may be better in 2020 than some of his results have been, etc. He still has experience and a big arm capable of some really good things. And especially now come playoff time, I believe Rocco will play matchup ball, meaning Rogers doesn't have to be the closer. I don't have season numbers in front of me, and not going to go digging for them, but it seems to me Romo has had another fine season with a couple bad outings recently to inflate his final numbers. And let us not forget the volatility of a RP numbers. All of our pen pitchers have roughly 1/3 of a season. (Same for everyone else I get it)! If this WERE a full season, Rogers and Romo both could look outstanding for their "second half plus". Do you really want to get against Romo, and all his experience, plus the job he did most of this year vs a couple hiccups lately? Even with bullpen games, nobody on this staff has been over used. Depth has provided everyone to succeed without being abused, IMO. But 162 numbers will always look different than 60 game numbers. A point that Gleeman brought up in the recent podcast I hadn't thought about, when so many games are played against the same opponent, sometimes in almost back to back series, does this affect pitching performance? Something to at least consider. But the game is still played on the field, 60 or 162 games. And it's playoff time. This pen has helped the Twins to one of the best records in the AL and all of MLB. Time and again, with little exception, they have done the job. They may blow up. I'd like to think they will continue to perform well going forward. I give the advantage here to the Twins, though it may not be a big advantage. Dark horse? May. He was outstanding before a slump tbat seemed predicated by HR balls. He seems to have found himself lately. Surprise? Thielbar. I have no clue what the future holds for him beyond this year, but to be accurate as well as corny, and to borrow from Jedi mythology: "this is not the Thielbar you know".

A very interesting move from the Astros to move Valdez to the pen. Will be respond to being a sort of fireman? Has he ever relieved before, or at least recently? Considering the Twins have been surprisingly bad against LHSP this season I find the move questionable. I think the Twins have the advantage in the first 2 games based on results and experience, in the case of Berrios vs Urquidy. McCullers seems to be the kind of guy who can give the Twins lineup fits. Of course, hopefully there won't be a 3rd game. I give the Twins a slight edge here.

1] Maeda has watched his game up to another level. For 2020, he has pitched like an ACE. Will be be that good in 2021 over 30 starts and 180-190 IP? Hopefully, but right NOW he's about as good as it gets. 2] Yes, Berrios struggled early on, seeming to work on SOMETHING or affected by the short ramp up I'm not certain. But he has been pitching lately about as well as expected, hoped for, and as he has done for each of the past 2 All Star seasons before a late fade. Again, he rebounded at the end of 2019 and changes in routine will hopefully take hold in the future. But thjs guy is GOOD. Pineda looks like the same guy we wished we had in the playoffs last year. Hill is doing exactly what he was signed to do, provide a real lift, and experience, as we hit the playoffs. Dobnak struggled late, but generally performed well and shows promise. But let's be honest, Odorizzi is the better pitcher and looked good in his last start before his cut/blister. I don't even know if we'll need a 5th SP, but I like our chances there as well or better than anyone. 3] I'm going to agree to disagree SLIGHTLY here and echo a few comments made above. There is no Nathan, unfortunately. And many of those past teams had some good, productive RP. In fact, some of those teams had better pen depth than the rotation. But I DO AGREE that this pen goes 7-9 even 10 deep when you factor in possible SP providing additional depth. Most have at least some post season experience now, albeit limited. A couple bad appearances late shouldn't diminish optimism based on what they did during the season. 4] I also remain concerned about Buxton, and Donaldson, until I see them on the field. And the Twins have been a little loose when it comes to reporting injuries, which is their right. Since Buxton's helmet strike seemed to be glancing, and Donaldson's calf injury was reported as a "tightness", both were removed and then sat with no additional information following, I am going to assume for now they are good to go and sat for precautionary reasons. I am hopeful but very guarded at this time. 5] Not travelling to NY to play in that environment is probably a good thing. I'm not 100% convinced NOT playing them at home in the 1st round is necessarily a good thing. But I sure am glad that for now, we don't have to keep beating the dead horse that is ghosts of the past. Our pitching is the best and deepest it has been in recent memory. Out defense has absolutely improved. We have experience all across the roster to varying degrees. We still finished, I believe, with the 4th most HR in the AL and 9th most runs scored. We are not impotent offensively. Still, my biggest concern for the playoffs IS the offense. Like the dreaded Yankees, and other teams, our depth has been tested. And yet we are tied for the 2nd best record in baseball and tied for the 4th best record overall. CAN the offense come through? If Buxton, Donaldson and Arraez are in the lineup, I think we can. If 2 or all are out, I'm really concerned. It's one thing to have depth, it's another to count on that depth when everything ratchets up another notch to playoff levels.

While I remain a fan of Astudillo and he versatility and contact bat, Wade has really impressed me the last month with his defense and AB. He is my choice. No question Stashak is included. Guy has been proving himself over and over again since last season. And I have to include Thielbar for the first series. Pains me to say so, in a good way. Raise your hand if you really thought his signing from independent ball and milb to an invite would make him a viable quality pen option? (Liar!) LOL But at least for the 1st round, how can you leave him off?

Agreed. But they apparently believe the cut/blister Odorizzi has is no big deal. You still have Dobnak, impressive in his "half" a season career thus far. But they apparently saw, or didn't see, anything in Bailey's last start to convince them he was actually ready to contribute.

Great post! When this FO took over they spoke about building an organization that would achieve sustained success and competition. Great lip service, right? But while we can't fully judge their drafts for another couple of years, all signs seem to point to success there as well as development thus far. They HAVE forayed into the FA market and been turned down a couple of times. But they also have brought in Cruz and some other signings that have really contributed. And they've made some very smart trades, even if there is pain for what they gave up. So far, not sure anyone can truly complain about gains made. There will be hard decisions in the near future. It's simply the economics of baseball. The Twins just don't have the finances to compete with NY or LA, just for example. But they have shown intelligence,development, moxy and some financial guts to make certain moves. While it would be outstanding to have Wheeler, for example, they may be better off with Maeda and Donaldson. As I stated in the game thread, this team is on pace for a 99 win season coming in to the Reds series. You can blast certain guys for having bad seasons in a crazy year. You could single out a guy like Marwin for 2020, just for example and not to pick on him. But how much better has this team been in 2019-20 by having him, and others? In other words, our guys, our depth, even with some struggles, have done better and contributed more...offense and defense...than other team's guys. This FO is aggressive, progressive, intuitive and smart as hell. And ownership and FO have stepped up financially and socially to really build something here, from the ML level on down. We talk about extensions for players, but maybe we should also talk about extensions for non players. Indiana talked about a lack of moves that move the needle in a big way. I understand and agree, though Donaldson and Maeda were, in different ways, needle movers. Big movers! But I understand his point. Instead of 1 or 2 massive moves, this FO would rather have 3 or 4 smaller moves that move the overall needle 7 spots instead of 5. Who can argue with that?

What I love most about this OP is 5 bright points WITHOUT even going in to depth about all the milb and developmental and analytical changes. While not every move has worked out...and they never all do...I feel like this FO has a career BA of about .600 at this point! LOL Even when the 2018 FA moves didn't turn out, they were smart moves on the surface. Draft moves, I have reservations at this point, though I never expect miracles. So few make it, much less become stars. But it's also WAY too early to make any determinations on that regard. But Jeffers is huge and a great sign. I wish Rocco would embrace a little situational or small ball here and there when the offense is struggling, but I have zero complaints overall. I won't pass judgement on anyone's overall performance after a 60 game season which is 1/3 of a normal year, coming off an interrupted/abbreviated pair of ST...think Garver, Kepler, Marwin, etc, a LOT of players and teams...but I am mildly concerned about the loss of a handful of really good coaches and still being unsure about their replacements at this time. Going in to tonight's game against the Reds, the Twins are on a 99 win pace if this were a normal year. With that said, and my previous comment, this team wouldn't be where it is without Marwin, Adrianza, Avilla, etc, etc. Meaning some of our guys may have disappointed, but they are still better and helped more than the other team's guys. And that shouldn't be forgotten in this discussion.

Very excited for Colina. My understanding has been for some time he could be a potentially dominate pen arm, but that they wanted to keep him as a SP as long as possible in hope of developing a 3rd pitch. I am wondering now if that is still the plan/hope and he's in the pen now for opportunity and to get his feet wet, OR, have they already made a final decision on him? Guess I'm a little confused though by the Bailey move. With the potential of 5 and 7 game series beyond the first round, there is room for Hill as the 4th starter, but also room, potentially, for a 5th starter. It would appear they are set/comfortable/optimistic with Odorizzi or Dobnak in that potential role.