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DocBauer

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Everything posted by DocBauer

  1. DocBauer
    I also like Marwin at 3B. I think he's a fine player there. But I feel some of his value is lost filling as a fixture at 1 spot vs being the super utility guy he is. And then I think you've shortened up your bench and versatility on the roster. And while I think Sano could transition to 1B solidly, the positions are different, though they bear some similarities. I also believe Sano will continue to improve at 3B. Sano at 3B and Cron/TBD at 1B offers more offensively, IMO. So while I like Marwin at 3B, I remain unconvinced at this point the team is better with him there.
  2. DocBauer
    I can get behind this even though I kinda don't like it. He looked so good in that role, I really hate to take him out of it. But in your plan, as young as he is, he might be temporarily squeezed out, especially if we can squeeze in another LHRP just over your budget, that would allow him to be stretched out at Rochester and possibly fill either role when called up. And you're correct you never want to give up on a young pitcher too soon as rotation pieces are hard to find. But then again, if you follow the path of certain teams like the Cardinals, they have transitioned young arms to the pen and back to the rotation again. I guess I'm talking in circles here, lol, but again, I just really like what he showed and his potential. We still have decide what to do with Romero, and we also have Graterol, Thorpe, Smeltzer and Dobnak for SP options. Not to mention Duran, Jax, etc. At some point, have to make room/opportunity for your young arms.
  3. DocBauer
    I can buy this all day long, even though I like Wheeler better. Why do I like him better? Younger and better pure velocity for Johnson to work with. I also have some trouble with Boyd in this deal. Not because he is terrible or I dont like him. Johnson might just crank him up a notch! I just dont know if he had his first really good season...or so it appeared to me...and has room to climb, or if he was just having his career year. To trade a couple of guys I have high hopes for to acquire a potential 5th starter when I have some good young arms to look at? I just don't know. I want to KNOW what Johnson and the Twins see/expect from Boyd before I make this move. Not asking a lot am I? Lol
  4. DocBauer
    Yep. But Pomeranz threw 28 last season. That's all I'm saying. My $5M would go there instead of Perez.
  5. DocBauer
    Some fine points and some thjngs I agree with. Yes to Pineda, Castro, Cron and Romo. All 4 can be replaced, but all 4 are also good players and come at value. Fine with any and all back. No to Schoop, no room and he will look for a starting opportunity. No to Perez. Speculating he could succeed in the pen is way different than any evidence he can. Pomeranz, at least, has SOME proven numbers out of the pen. Time for Gibson to move on. Roster is seemingly done, and he's still sitting there end of January, fine, offer him a cheap 1yr deal to be the 5th starter.
  6. DocBauer
    Just being honest, I know nothing about the Marlins. I just don't pay attention to them. So I know pretty much nothing about Alcantara either. But this is the kind of thinking they should be employing. While peripherals may be poor, he showed improvement, is young, controllable and high velocity is always good. Im betting Johnson would love to work with all of that. But there remains real questions here. I'm thinking 1 top 10 guy and 1 in the second 10 and maybe a toss in. Fair? Too high?
  7. DocBauer
    Great news, of course. Now work out an extension to keep both parties happy and add another high quality piece to the rotation.
  8. DocBauer
    Sorry Mike, you lost me a bit on 2nd last sentence. I was advocating adding more payroll for an additional bat. I like the OP in general, and flexibility for additions, mid season and beyond. But never argued about spending more beyond Jeremy's framework. Are we miscomunitating here about intentions?
  9. DocBauer
    But they don't. There is no reason to suddenly add $20-30M at the deadline next year "just because". But now the financial opportunity IS available to make a move. A move that might even be a player signed beyond just a rental. Look, I'm not saying "don't spend, be cheap, it's OK". But actually improving the ballclub while still keeping costs under control for flexibility and future salaries/extensions is a win-win. If the Twins improve, win the Central, advance to and win the World Series, will anyone care what the actual final payroll is? But again, while I really like what Jeremy did here, the payroll should still be a little higher for a bat, regardless if its OF/1B/3B. And you'd still have a lot of flexibility for a mid season acquisition, and to prepare for 2021.
  10. DocBauer
    Honestly find this plan to be outstanding in most all regards. The pitching is better overall, the team stays mostly intact, the top prospects remain with the organization for now, and the budget is crazy low at about $120M. IMO, that financial flexibility is not about being cheap, but rather a real opportunity to add in the near future, plus additional arbitration numbers. While the BIG MOVE didn't happen at the deadline last season, it doesn't mean attempts weren't made, or won't be in the future. The FO has been fairly aggressive when it comes to making trades. My ONE problem with this, Jeremy, is the loss of Cron AND Rosario. With the payroll as you have it, Cron needs to be kept. Or add Moose for 3B and move Sano to 1B. But there has be a bat retained/added somewhere.
  11. DocBauer
    As a 4th SP option, or maybe as a budget 5th option on a 1yr if the market continues as we've seen the last couple of years. He misses the first month of the season plus, but would you rather have Pineda or Hamels as your #4 SP for 2020 considering the season as a whole?
  12. DocBauer
    Probably get a lot of feedback on this, but I'd leave the infield alone for next season. Call me an optimist, but when I look at how young Aareaz, Polanco and Sano are, I simply can't believe we won't see internal improvement. Remember how Sano basically missed most of 2018 and was hurt and overweight but has a cannon and improved his foul ball ability? Remember how athletic Polanco is, has a new, more comfortable throwing motion and missed the first half of 2018? Not to mention put him at SS for "good" after he was bounced around so much. Remember Arraez was still a rookie, but is a smart, heady player with good baseball instincts who actually held his own wherever he was placed? I agree with improving defensively and appreciate good defense. And there are "moving" parts over the next season or two with Gordon and Lewis adding to the mix. Not to mention 1B options. If you really want a short term SS option, why not just stay in house with Adrianza? But what's wrong with also allowing for experience, growth and development from the young core you have on hand?
  13. DocBauer
    I love the 26man roster. I don't think limiting the number of pitchers is that big of a deal as those kind of things sort of work themselves out anyway. You still need a balanced roster. I think the September roster number is a joke from everything from auditions to gaining depth for playoff teams to get ready. Not debating the 3 batter minimum rule unto itself, but it does nothing to speed up the game. The guy coming in could simply not have it and suddenly there are runs scored, guys OB for the next RP brought in, and you have accomplished ZERO in speeding up the game. In fact, you could end up lengthening it.
  14. DocBauer
    To me, it sort of feels the Reds want to contend, but aren't ready to yet. This idea actually makes sense to me. The fact that Bauer only has one year of control is scary. But then again, it brings his cost down. For a team lacking prospect depth, not sure Blankenhorn as the 3rd piece gets it done, but maybe. I'd rather, somehow, add to the trade value and get at least a 1yr extension from Bauer.
  15. DocBauer
    This is my favorite plan thus far. (Much in keeping with my own thoughts). Not only is this a good plan, it is a very, very realistic one! It is sound and doesn't require a ton of moving parts that various trade scenarios offer up. As someone else stated, could be a little high on Wheeler, but all the financial parameters are in place. I think I might prefer a couple more $M and keep Castro at catcher. And I find myself torn on Hammels vs a return of Pineda, even with the suspension. But I'd be awfully happy and optimistic if this turned out to be reality.
  16. DocBauer
    There have been various comments made, some real and some perhaps tongue in cheek, about NOT choosing between Bumgarner and Wheeler and signing both. FACT, the Twins have the financial ability to do so, and still retain Odorizzi, without blowing up the rest of the team, or escalating the payroll above $150M. But even if the Twins make quality offers to both, and even if we are a talented team on the rise and both guys are very open about coming on board, it would still be very difficult to do so. And that's a reality we have to accept. Someone could make a crazy offer. Either could choose a matching offer in a place closer to home they prefer. We just don't know how it will play out. I say take your shot for both and see if you can pull it off. But land at least one...and I'm still torn on which one I'd prefer...keep Odorizzi, and then find the best 4th rotation piece you can.
  17. DocBauer
    Really like this post! Beyond the current mantra that the game has changed...it has...ERA is a useful measurement tool employed forever in the game. It is not be all or end all, and there are numerous additional measurements available today. But it is still a viable reference at our disposal, IMO. If Odorizzi simply had or learned to better economize his pitches and could be counted on for just a few more outs, his already impressive numbers would be that much better. He is not a 1-2, we know that. But he often pitches like he is for that 5+ IP. He is a valuable arm, more or less on hand, and needs to be retained. I'm happy if he is our #3, ecstatic if he could be our #4.
  18. DocBauer
    While I think we can all agree to disagree here and there, the fact is these changes affect every team. If there is any "loser" in these changes, it would be for a team that really likes to play the matchup game in later innings, possibly due to a weaker pen. The one rule change I really hate is the super small roster growth come September. Apparently, MLB is worried about the integrity of the game during the stretch run. As if a poor, 90-100 loss team would provide "worse" competition to a winning team challenging for a post season berth. Really?
  19. DocBauer
    If you really look at his career, beyond the numbers posted in the OP, you will a pretty solid first 2 full years in the league. That was followed by a pretty awful 1 1/2. Then, you get another another good/really good 1 1/2 years again, ending with a poor final half for 2019. You basically have 4 really solid years and 2 bad ones. Most of the arguments surrounding his "nibbling" was the bad 1 1/2 seasons and his decline the second half of 2019. Velocity is still there, we've seen it, though the question is can he maintain it? I understand the interest. And for his sake, I hope the reports of therapy working are true. But feeling good now is very different than being able to manage and keep up his strength for an entire season. Not so sure so many teams being "interested" aren't more about kicking tires and doing due diligence. While I have been a supporter of his, I am much more interested in adding a prime SP, re-signing Odorizzi, adding a 4th arm via trade, FA, or re-signing of Pineda, and then a smart flier to compete with the youngsters. I'd be OK if Gibson is sitting there come late January or early February and turns out to be that flier.
  20. DocBauer
    *Note: Duran is part of your trade proposal but then mentioned Alcala as being a chief part of the Escobar deal. Small typo. In theory, your proposal is sound. A few caveats/thought: 1] Rendon is a marvelous player. But assuming he is interested in joining the Twins...not saying he wouldn't be...$33M per for 8yrs just sounds kind of crazy to me. Will he really get that big of a deal? Are there enough teams out there that could actually afford that? Or would pay it? 2] I think you might be a couple $M short per year on Wheeler and Odorizzi. 3] Probably right on for Romo, wonder if you might have to bump Pomeranz just a little bit. 4] I'm OK with Chirinos on the 1yr deal. Agree with you at being fine with Castro for the same $6M. Not so sure i wouldn't prefer Castro for the LH bat and continuity. 5] Gordon may be near the end, but he had a nice bounce back 2019. Despite veteran status, I'd like to think the 1yr $2M would do it. But if the 35yo Gordon could replicate his '19, he'd be my primary OF and let Marwin continue to do what he does best. I'd be really happy with everything you have here, bumping the pitching contracts up a bit and knocking Rendon down 1yr and a couple $M per.
  21. DocBauer
    A very good blueprint and well thought out. Hits most of the same points I would look at. Really like the Pomeranz signing, though there are a couple other interesting lefty options as well. Might be a slight overpay for Betances, but who am I to argue. It's the trade for Iglesias I call in to question. I don't feel comfortable, given a choice, of turning LF over to Cave or Wade at this point, and feel the Twins are better served by keeping Rosario and Balazovic and think they have enough on hand along with your other 2 additions at this time.
  22. DocBauer
    You build your team a certain way based on what is available. The 2019 Twins were based on bombas and deservedly so. But baseball history has shown us multiple ways to build a club. I have argued in other threads about how analytics are changing the game, but eventually others will catch on, so then you have to be progressive enough to find the next thing. At some point, speed and defense will return again. But why can't the Twins be at the forefront? I will give Rocco a pass as a rookie manager with his Bomba squad. But as a smart and ex player turned manager,you have to realise what the SB can accomplish. There are enough good athletes at your disposal, beyond Buxton, that timing and technique could allow you to utilize another weapon. Maybe it requires a coaching change, I don't know. We don't have to be at the top of the list, but we sure shouldn't be at the bottom either.
  23. DocBauer
    From MLB Trade Rumors projections FWIW: Wheeler: 5yrs/ $100M Bumgarner: 4yrs/ $72M Odorizzi: 3yrs/ $51M Pineda: 2yrs/ $22M Allowing for small variation, couple dollars here, 1 additional year there, IMHO, these per year $ are just about what I've been thinking/projecting. I think Odorizzi is $2M high and Pineda $1-2M low, but again, I think this is very, very close. I agree going for both Wheeler and Bumgarner. You might even get both AND still keep Odorizzi. All 3 combined come in around $55M combined and give us one hell of a rotation. If I had to choose just one, I don't know that I could. I'm scared of Bumgarner's career IP, but his arm still seems to have life. Wheeler has better velocity and may even have a little higher ceiling than he's shown when you reflect on missing seasons and his 2019 results. Honestly torn 50/50 which one I'd pick if forced. Note: For giggles, the website has the Twins signing MadBum, Odorizzi and Will Smith for the pen on 3yrs/ $42M. They also toss in Howie Kendricks for 2yrs/ $12M to play 1B
  24. DocBauer
    Agreed. And that sounds almost exactly like the Darvish contract doesn't it? Extra year plus the opt out. Really, really puts FULL control in the hands of the pitcher.
  25. DocBauer
    Also not a fan of opt outs. You have a good thing going, you'd like to keep it going and not allow a fixture on your team from walking away and now you have a hole to fill all over again. Then again, if your milb system is healthy, you may have an option ready or about ready to help plug that hole. Futher, let's say you get Wheeler for 3 great seasons and he opts out looking for that one final big deal. Theoretically, someone else now gets stuck overpaying for his final years. Absolutely understand the negative impact and the FO mot cozying up to the idea. But I sure hope they re-consider because it really could be a useful tool.
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