DocBauer

While the jury is certainly out, I'd say they were good moves overall and potential wins. Even the Pressly deal, which I didn't like then and don't like now, could be a win or at least break even 2 years from now. Still would have rather kept him. Losing Escobar hurt for a few reasons and I think we'd be a better team with him. But if they couldn't agree on an extension and he was going to leave, then they did the right thing at the right time Hindsight is, of course, 20/20. But I wish we could go back, see the future, and play those moves differently.

Going to hit a few topics here all at once. Agree with me or blast me, up to you. I will also state again, I am not an apologist for the FO. I am, however a big fan of most of what they have done to this point. And I will freely admit there have been a few times when j have disagreed with what they did, or didn't do, and have been proven wrong. ALL that being said, here we go: 1] There are, of course, exceptions. (There is no need to rebuttle, I've already stated the previous fact). But generally speaking, a true ACE SP is rarely made available unless it is a team in some sort of cost cutting or rebuild mode. They are prized possessions. This FA class was unique in that there 2 available. The final price tag and terms alone, in retrospect if not for thought, eliminates all but a handful of teams in the league. I really wanted Wheeler. I would have liked Bumgarner for various reasons, despite various arguments against, which I get. Wheeler is healthy enough, just young enough, with nice velocity, he could raise his game to another level. But to think he was an ACE SP just waiting to come to anyone is hyperbole at best at this point. That's not a knock. He has a fine arm. He COULD take another step forward. But if he was that good, then why did his cost come at half of the other 2 prizes? Wheeler turned down more money elsewhere, from at least one team. A well placed source with Arizona basically stated Bumgarner and his agent contacted Arizona about playing there. As I have heard reported, he is signed for something around $6M for 2020, and deffered around $16-17M post contract, and left something between $20-25M on the table from other offers to pitch for the Diamondbacks. 2] "Impact pitching" is the catch phrase everyone hangs their hat on. But what does that mean exactly? And that may be the rub that frustrates and disturbs the most. I never heard, "we are going to sign or trade for one of the best SP in the game". When the season ended, Odorizzi and Pineda were on almost every list as 2 of the top 10-12 rotation arms available. The Twins re-signed both. Because they were with us last season somehow diminishes their ability are value? They were part of one of the deepest and best ranked rotations in the AL last season despite Gibson and Perez falling apart. The Twins absolutely NEED another SP to legitimately compete for one of the top 3 spots in the rotation. And we could argue about someone like Bumgarner or Keuchel as being able to be that guy. But what about trading for that guy? How about Gray, or Ray, or a bounce back from Archer, just to toss out 3 names? They will cost a handful of prospects from a deep system, but they all could be as good or better than most or all the FA arms we "missed out" on without the years and $. I remind that Odorizzi and Pineda were surprises with mixed feelings when brought on board, but have proven to be very smart moves. Now, said trade HAS TO HAPPEN, and hasn't happened yet. YET. So let's slow the roll of angst for a moment. Personally, I'd still like a Wood, Walker type of cheap signing also for depth and competition. It would just be smart to do so. This a team well built overall, coming off 101 win season with most everything intact, including a much better and deeper bullpen than when 2019 began. We saw a few pitching prospects get their feet wet and show potential. A few more of equal ability might not be far off. The payroll can easily allow for additions, and prospect capital is high. I'm EAGER for something to happen. Hell, I'm even hoping Donaldson is actually interested and not just playing the Twins and Nationals against one another in order to get a better final offer from the Braves, (which could be reality), and we get him AND make a solid trade. But despite my own anxiousness to see a move, and to see ST and the season start, I'm just not ready to pull some kind of plug on 2020 because we lost out on a collection of over 30, high contract pitchers when I haven't seen the final chapter of this off season yet.

I know I'm repeating myself, but I always felt a "major" FA SP signing was 50-50 vs making a trade acquisition. I felt Wheeler and Bumgarner were the only 2 that really made sense. I didn't think they were serious about moving Sano at this time, but the rumors and links to various 3B and not a peep about a 1B being added in any way has me thinking they are at least fairly serious about this possibility. Now whether it happens or not...

As a fan, of course I'm disappointed and frustrated. I was hoping for Wheeler and Bumgarner was my 2nd Choice. I've just never been sold on Ryu, though I would have cheered and hoped. I'm not trying to sound smart, but I've said all along it was 50-50 the Twins would sign a FA vs making a trade. Except for Wheeler and Bumgarner, I didn't see a match that made sense. Now, they still have to make a trade, and I believe they will. Who and what it will cost I don't know. Lastly, there are still a couple guys like Wood and Walker who i think would be smart, inexpensive bounce back candidates to help fill up the rotation. I hope we go get one.

While I believe there is a very good chance we see both Kirilloff and Larnach at some point in 2020, and with all due respect to Rooker who I have doubts but hopes for, Raley is the position player closest to help IMO. Been banging his drum for some time now so I'm either going to look really smart or really stupid. He seems to be able to hit with some patience and power, runs well enough to even play some CF. I think He gets forgotten about by some because he didn't come up through the Twins system initially. Thorpe, Dobnak, Smeltzer and Graterol have already contributed, at least to some degree, and all 4 will make contributions this year. Unfortunately, despite pure stuff, the time frame for Graterol is a bit up in the air as he needs to remain a starter. But he needs some nurturing. But I believe taking a little time and using him wisely this year will end up paying huge dividends. Really anxious to see what Alcala and Duran do this year. Alcala could be knocking on the door pretty hard really soon. And I believe we have established that Romero does, in fact, have an option left.

Both 28yo and within 6 months of one another. Matz is LH and throws in the mid 90 range, would love to see what Johnson could do with him. He could be about ready to blossom, but figures to be no worse than a #4. Ray has only 1 season of control but is more proven. What are the odds of a trade and extension rolled in to one? If I'm not mistaken, there is still a QO offer available after next year so that may give a team a little more leverage. I'm willing to pay more in prospect capital for Ray if we can work out some kind of extension. Otherwise, I have to see some "lightening up" of a trade pack for just the 1 year.

Still wondering and holding out hope where Romero fits in at some point.

I enjoyed the OP and the subtle reminder there is still time to make a move and it doesn't have to happen today. But I became nauseous after reading the Ponder reminder. All that therapy gone to waste now!

I am very excited about the pen with what is returning and the re-sign of Romo and the signing of Clipppard. There are enough options available that the Rochester shuttle can still play. Not sold on Wisler. He has to prove it. Maybe Johnson can help him do that. For now he is a flier. Despite the new way of thinking, Rogers has emerged as the closer. But with other arms on hand, it doesn't mean he can't be a "fireman". But right now, he's the closer. May, Duffey and Clippard have the 7th and 8th. Romo, Littel and Stashak have the 6th and 7th. Even though I think Smeltzer is destined for a role in the pen, I'd still feel better if we brought another option on board. Don't get me wrong, I think he could be very good in that role, I just hate to pigeon-hole him there just yet. I also think Thorpe could be outstanding in the pen. But that's his floor, IMO. I'd keep him as a rotation piece for now. The FO seems to think, IMO from what I am seeing, that an addition LH BP piece is either on hand, or can be developed by the staff from the fliers they are bringing on board. Any way you look at it, I'm really, really liking the potential make-up of the pen.

Been thinking a lot about this OP during the day since I read it. While this letter will obviously not be hand delivered to the FO...though I'm willing to be some people in the FO actually read TD...i feel Matt is simply being cathartic in his piece. And I endorse that and get that. I'm even hoping against hope it will have even a little affect on some of the vitriol that bas been spewing out on many recent posts. To no-one in particular, I get it. I really do. After a few very bad and disappointing years, this team seems right on the cusp. And everyone, me included, wants a WOW factor to give hope that tomorrow is NOW! That the window is not only open, but stuck open and even your construction/farmhand uncle with the barrell chest, massive arms and powerful hands can't close the damn thing! But can we also just take a couple of deep breaths and step back for a moment? I could tell you all I've been a fanatic since the Calvin days and remind you what cheap really was. I could remind you all that despite angst and "reputation" the Twins have won 2 WS titles and had numerous winning seasons and playoff appearances over that time, including a record setting season last year. And we could bicker and argue about the previous FO, and ownership, during that time. Except, in the hear and now, while maybe relative to some degree, it doesn't matter in the NOW. I will state, with conviction, as Matt alluded to, comparing the previous administration to now is just borderline ridiculous. Different time and place, and different schools of thought. No offense to the previous FO as they did some very good things in their day. But they also didn't make trades to acquire talent for veterans in a losing season. They didn't eat contract $ to make a deal work. They didn't embrace analytics and new ways of doing things the way thjs new regime has been. Remember last off season when we were all screaming to add FA BP help, me included, and all we got was Parker and Harper? Considering how the season went, and then went even better, don't knkw about you but I feel a little silly now. Even the tragic mid-season BP trade scenario turned out half right didn't it? Remember when the Odorizzi trade was almost a footnote? Or the 2yr Pineda deal was a hope flier? My point is I think we are a pretty damn smart collective of baseball, Twins fanatics, from owners to staff to bloggers. (I both include and dismiss myself compared to some). But we are also very uninformed at times as to what is really going on in the market world of MLB. For months I have been torn about Wheeler and Bumgarner. And then both were gone. And through various reports it appears we never had a shot, for whatever reason, for either one. And as a fanatical fan, my reactions is simple: DAMNIT! I'm not sold on Ryu or Keuchel, though I "like" both. And I would celebrate the signing of either with HOPE. But I also like so much of what I have seen this FO do so far that I have a feeling of trust in them. I don't believe they will shell out money "just to make a move". We can argue back and forth all day about that. But until they just prove me and everyone wrong, I'm siding with them at this point. Is it accident or co-incidence that the young "core" players have begun to arrive under their administration? Is it the same we have built one of the best farm systems since they've been in charge? Despite $ available, maybe this FA class just isn't right. Maybe they will sign Ryu and Donaldson both tomorrow and we all be left drooling like Pavlov's dogs. And maybe they will sign a so-so arm they like, bring back Cron or sign Shaw, and make a trade for a Thor, or someone lesser they really like. And we will sit here come June 1st, or so, wondering what on earth we were thinking. I am NOT a prospect horder. I believe in making trades. I would like a major move FA wise to move the needle and keep available talent on hand for tomorrow and future moves with said window wide open. But while I can't wait for spring, and ST, as I ramble on December 20th, I can't but believe there are going to be some very interesting moves to yet take place.

I am a huge believer in having your #5 SP be a rookie or young arm. Or a rotation of young arms until someone grabs that spot. But with Pineda missing some time early and being a real playoff contender, I agree the time isn't right to bank on that this year. Besides, there is the time Pineda will be out as well as injuries, etc, for these kids to get their shot this year.

I like Blankenhorn overall and think he's got a real shot. I feel he's a half year to year away just because of the SO issues, but we all know that can change quickly at times for a prospect. Want to echo Colina as a possible surprise. People overlook him, maybe because he's on the shorter side. (No pun intended but made me chuckle when I typed it). Kid is strong and throws hard. Profiles to a nice pen arm if the rotation doesn't work out. The guy I have my eye on, and mentioned it yesterday in another thread, is Raley. I think he's the closest to being ready to contribute and he could do so at 1B or either corner OF spot.

Anyone else on board with giving Moore or Smyly a call in the next few weeks to see if they'd like to resurrect their career as bullpen pieces for a few $M? (Yep, I'm still on that bandwagon)

Echoing, briefly, what Brian stated and I have referenced before, trade or FA...I don't care which...get that guy who is at least as good, if not better than, either Berrios or Odorizzi. With Pineda, you have an awful nice 4 man staff. But you don't/can't stop there as you PLAN on someone being hurt. And you also don't leave a guy in who can't get the job done just because. I WANT opportunity for these 4 guys, and we might even include Duran in there, later in the season, but I don't necessarily think you just hand over a job to one of them. Opportunity comes from Pineda being out initially, injury, double headers, and bullpen assistance as well, ALL of this provides opportunity. Get the one guy. Then get Teheran, Walker, etc, to "fill up" your rotation. ALL FOUR of these guys are going to have opportunity and be asked to fill a role in 2020. ALL FOUR of these guys have decent to very good potential, with Graterol having a special arm, but all four are not exactly old or dripping with AAA experience, much ML experience. But as to the primary question: "who do you trust the most to be in the rotation for the majority of the season?" I'm saying Dobnak because today, right now, he seems the most ready to be that guy. Cracks me up how a guy can dominate milb at 3 levels and perform well at the ML level, albeit SSS, because he has an unusual and wonderful story. You don't do what he has done simply because you fooled people. Graterol just needs a little more time, a little more nurturing so I can't pick him for the "majority" of the season. Always believed in Thorpe and still do. I think he's really close and there were times last year where he really flashed. Not dismissing Smeltzer as he just might fool us all, but he has the least amount of pure stuff and I think he will have a nice career as a middle/swing man. So there you go...Dobnak.

I say Raley because I think he is the most ready and thus gets first opportunity to fill 1B, or a corner OF spot due to trade or injury and possible shuffling. I think a lot of people are sleeping on him because he didn't come up through the system. He's a big kid with good power who runs well enough to take an extra or steal a base and even play some CF in a pinch. But agreed it could absolutely be Kiriloff, Larnach, etc, especially if we're talking later like June on. (Similar to Arraez last year) A lot of love on here for Thorpe and I'm on board with that idea from the pitching side. Kind of silly to put him behind Graterol though. But I am big believer in Thorpe and his stepping forward could be huge this year whether it be in the rotation or pen.

1] Berrios: it's not stuff or talent by any means. And everyone has a bad day or two. His problem is usually a stretch in the second half that bogs him down. I keep asking if the problem is working out too hard during the season and just losing endurance as the season goes along. The first half of 2019 I'd say he was amongst the best #1's around. Oddo was right behind him. How do they get a more even performance for the entire year? 2] Buxton: just stay healthy! Is there any rule restricting how wide the warning track can be? I'm only half kidding. 3] Kepler: I also think there is room for some improvement, though maybe not a ton. He's already damn good as is. I keep thinking his numbers might improve simply but letting Arraez and Polanco handle the top of the order, Cruz the 3 spot, and he takes over cleanup with Rosario sliding down to 6 behind Sano. 4] Rookie: I like this idea but, pitcher or player? Would be awesome for 1 of each. Don't ask me why, but I just keep getting this feeling Raley is going to end up being the 2020 Arraez at 1B or LF or both.

I've broached this idea before myself. A return to the AL and working with Johnson just might right him. I never felt he was a #1 SP. Probably a #2 at his best. He accounted for IP and SO but never seemed to take his performance to the next level. Still, he was a quality pitcher and outstanding at times. The question really comes down to how Pittsburgh views him. Move on and get what you can for him? Or do you try for a big return to save face for the cost of the trade that acquired him? I'm not sure they have great leverage here. Of course, they might also think they're own staff could fix him. I'd definitely be interested.

Tremendous respect for your Badgers. Run a great program, as you know, actually patterned after the Huskers. With Alvarez, you'd expect that. I also applaud the FO for their conviction. I think they are willing to spend $ as well as prospect capital to make a deal. They just don't believe in making a foolish deal. I think silly or stupid is OK, just not foolish. I don't know why some can't see the difference. The Twins were told by Wheeler pretty much thanks, but no thanks. Now, if we offered $20-30M more would that have changed his mind? Maybe. But now we're beyond stupid money to foolish money. I am not a FO apologist. I want improvement. I want to take a risk or two to see a payoff. But I don't want my team to mortgage the next 5 years on 1yr of a shot.

Not saying I know anything, but just adore how so many experts talk about such a young, tremendously gifted kid can't play a position. Especially when history has shown the exact opposite over time. I don't know beans about Lewis's stature and swing at the plate except for what I read and general observations as a baseball fan for over 40yrs. But I do know Buxton was having his best season as a pro just doing what felt natural this year. Sorry, can't remember the book title or author, but heard a great piece on the radio a couple weeks ago about the art of hitting. The just was despite all the technology and coaching involved, sometimes it just comes down to see ball and hit ball and the "timing" factor a player felt was natural. Lewis blows up the AFL, SSS understood, but some want to talk about fixing him. I think experience and "tweaking" are more relevant.

I've had a lot of laughs about Minnesota as a landing spot for players and FA and the such. As a Nebraskan and Omaha native, I've chuckled at having my home city mentioned a couple of times in context. And I am not equating thjs directly to the Twins and pursuit of FA. But it may apply, directly or indirectly. The Big Red have recruited nationally since Bob Devaney built the program in the late 60's all the way through the glory days of Tom Osborne. Coaches since have done so. You kind of have to considering population. But reputation only takes you so far. (Sound a bit familiar?) But for several years now, as we re-build the Husker program, over and over again you hear about kids who absolutely love what they see when they get here. They felt Lincoln NE was a tiny bodunk town in the middle of cornfields with nothing to offer. And, of course, it snowed all the time and was always cold. This is no hyperbole. Now, nobody thought we were part of Canada, lol, but perception out of the Midwest is borderline nuts for some people born and raised out west or down south. But what has always happened is, those who have come here ALWAYS think thjs is HOME to them whether they stay here permanently or not. How many Vikings and Twins players, through the years and now, have stated similar feelings? I get money talks when dealing with FA. There are always other mitigating factors. Thats reality. But maybe this new, aggressive and progressive FO need to not only think about $ but work on a different "recruiting pitch".

Thanks Nick. I think we are both measured on thjs subject. But measured still doesn't put a SP of quality in our rotation. And I doubt we will ever knkw what the Twins best offer was, or if they were willing to go higher or offer any sort of opt out though I know they have previously stated they don't like those. I don't want to offer up excuses, because this was the one guy who I really thought made some sense and could fit financially. Again, final numbers seem to say it might have been. But I have this naggjng feeling he would have only come here if the numbers were at least $10M more if not additional. And that is a hard debate. I agree with the idea Ash and Brian brought up concerning the "stupidity tax" you sometimes have to pay. (May have gotten that wrong, forgive me). Frugal is not a bad word. It doesn't mean cheap. It means you are smart enough with finances not to go to deep at times where the ultimate payout doesn't warrant the investment. Again, a hard debate. IMO, I think Bumgarner..IF he was interested...would have been worth it for 2-3yrs, not worth the investment the final year or two. But the final balance sheet woukd have said yes. Time will tell and again, we will probably never knkw the interest from Bumgarner or the Twins best offer. But I will say, as smart as I believe this FO is, as smart and as aggressive as they have been from top to bottom from everything they have done, I believe they miscalculated this FA class and opportunity based on the last 2 off-seasons. The question now is, how do they correct?

Talking about two entirely different scenarios here. I fully appreciate the need for another high end SP. I'm still high on that agenda! But we are also talking about building the best TEAM you can. And that includes adding to what already looks like a pretty good pen, with guys really, really close to providing help. But one this pen really needs is a quality LH arm for the middle innings that doesn't push Smeltzer or Thorpe there right away so they can continue to challenge for SP slots. There are guys like Matt Moore and Drew Smyly...recently brought up by Nick as possible, inexpensive fliers, that I think the Twins should be making hard sales pitches toward about converting to the bullpen. They both have live arms, and were once considered decent prospects. Each has had some ML success. Each has had injuries that have derailed their careers. Especially considering the way the game has changed, and the fact a quality RP can still command anywhere from $3M-7M-double digit millions per year...potentially...adding an arm like that could take this quality bullpen and send it to the next level. Consider: Rogers Duffey May Romo Moore/Smyly Littell Stashak 8th spot and waiting in the wings, Romero, Alcala, Poppen, maybe Eisler, in addition to SP options, Harper and similar flier invite types who could help/surprise.

Danchat beat me to it, really happy with his return and sorta felt it was a done deal all along. Slots in 6th-7th innings very well. But really need someone we can trust from the LH side in those same innings. Still like a SP conversion for the role.

Without knowing all the details, such as what the Twins fully offered, (heard they and others offered 4yrs, but not 5, but unsure of the $ details), it's hard for me to accurately comment on Bumgarner. It sure sounds like being so close to "home" was a big pull for him. But the contract he signed sounded much more reasonable than what some reports stated he might be asking or signing for. Also, even if the Twins didn't want to go the 5yr, couldn't they have front loaded a 4yr offer? I think I'm maybe more bummed losing out here as I really thought the details would make more sense. And it seems that is the case. I really think he would have been a quality #2 quality SP for the next couple of years with experience and some bulldog edge to him. Maybe he just wouldn't have come no matter what unless the annual was considerably higher. And we may never know. But this one stinks a little bit.

Mike, a very smart post. And I wouldn't disagree at the heart of it. BUT...and At times there IS a BUT...what if Cruz is another Papi and performs just as well in 2020 as he did this year, and has done for years, is be really gone? Odorizzi has stated he'd like to sign an extension. I really don't have a clue what terms that may include as I type this, but if he pitches just as well in 2020 as 2019, or even improves as he's just at that precise point in his career where talent and knowledge meet, do you want him to walk? Rosario is a bit different, no matter how much I love him and still feel he hasn't reached full potential yet, because there are a few guys getting close who could make him replaceable. Every season is unique unto itself, and that includes both roster and payroll. But to automatically assume a certain amount of payroll will be off the books is not salient. A team has to live season to season, BUT...and there is that BUT again...sometimes a team has to consider the long play as well. I am NOT saying the Twins shouldn't spend! I hope they do and expect they will, though I am not certain who, how much, and is it all $ or prospects. And I promise you when they do, I will dance a happy and hopeful Snoopy dance! If I can figure out how to do so, I will attempt to post actual dance here on TD so everyone can laugh at me! I just want whatever they do to be smart and not self-defeating down the line. There are options, cards to be played, and dominos to yet fall. Considering how crazy some contracts and demands are right now, I just don't want a move that sounds good but turns out not to be.