DocBauer

I've had a lot of laughs about Minnesota as a landing spot for players and FA and the such. As a Nebraskan and Omaha native, I've chuckled at having my home city mentioned a couple of times in context. And I am not equating thjs directly to the Twins and pursuit of FA. But it may apply, directly or indirectly. The Big Red have recruited nationally since Bob Devaney built the program in the late 60's all the way through the glory days of Tom Osborne. Coaches since have done so. You kind of have to considering population. But reputation only takes you so far. (Sound a bit familiar?) But for several years now, as we re-build the Husker program, over and over again you hear about kids who absolutely love what they see when they get here. They felt Lincoln NE was a tiny bodunk town in the middle of cornfields with nothing to offer. And, of course, it snowed all the time and was always cold. This is no hyperbole. Now, nobody thought we were part of Canada, lol, but perception out of the Midwest is borderline nuts for some people born and raised out west or down south. But what has always happened is, those who have come here ALWAYS think thjs is HOME to them whether they stay here permanently or not. How many Vikings and Twins players, through the years and now, have stated similar feelings? I get money talks when dealing with FA. There are always other mitigating factors. Thats reality. But maybe this new, aggressive and progressive FO need to not only think about $ but work on a different "recruiting pitch".

Thanks Nick. I think we are both measured on thjs subject. But measured still doesn't put a SP of quality in our rotation. And I doubt we will ever knkw what the Twins best offer was, or if they were willing to go higher or offer any sort of opt out though I know they have previously stated they don't like those. I don't want to offer up excuses, because this was the one guy who I really thought made some sense and could fit financially. Again, final numbers seem to say it might have been. But I have this naggjng feeling he would have only come here if the numbers were at least $10M more if not additional. And that is a hard debate. I agree with the idea Ash and Brian brought up concerning the "stupidity tax" you sometimes have to pay. (May have gotten that wrong, forgive me). Frugal is not a bad word. It doesn't mean cheap. It means you are smart enough with finances not to go to deep at times where the ultimate payout doesn't warrant the investment. Again, a hard debate. IMO, I think Bumgarner..IF he was interested...would have been worth it for 2-3yrs, not worth the investment the final year or two. But the final balance sheet woukd have said yes. Time will tell and again, we will probably never knkw the interest from Bumgarner or the Twins best offer. But I will say, as smart as I believe this FO is, as smart and as aggressive as they have been from top to bottom from everything they have done, I believe they miscalculated this FA class and opportunity based on the last 2 off-seasons. The question now is, how do they correct?

Talking about two entirely different scenarios here. I fully appreciate the need for another high end SP. I'm still high on that agenda! But we are also talking about building the best TEAM you can. And that includes adding to what already looks like a pretty good pen, with guys really, really close to providing help. But one this pen really needs is a quality LH arm for the middle innings that doesn't push Smeltzer or Thorpe there right away so they can continue to challenge for SP slots. There are guys like Matt Moore and Drew Smyly...recently brought up by Nick as possible, inexpensive fliers, that I think the Twins should be making hard sales pitches toward about converting to the bullpen. They both have live arms, and were once considered decent prospects. Each has had some ML success. Each has had injuries that have derailed their careers. Especially considering the way the game has changed, and the fact a quality RP can still command anywhere from $3M-7M-double digit millions per year...potentially...adding an arm like that could take this quality bullpen and send it to the next level. Consider: Rogers Duffey May Romo Moore/Smyly Littell Stashak 8th spot and waiting in the wings, Romero, Alcala, Poppen, maybe Eisler, in addition to SP options, Harper and similar flier invite types who could help/surprise.

Danchat beat me to it, really happy with his return and sorta felt it was a done deal all along. Slots in 6th-7th innings very well. But really need someone we can trust from the LH side in those same innings. Still like a SP conversion for the role.

Without knowing all the details, such as what the Twins fully offered, (heard they and others offered 4yrs, but not 5, but unsure of the $ details), it's hard for me to accurately comment on Bumgarner. It sure sounds like being so close to "home" was a big pull for him. But the contract he signed sounded much more reasonable than what some reports stated he might be asking or signing for. Also, even if the Twins didn't want to go the 5yr, couldn't they have front loaded a 4yr offer? I think I'm maybe more bummed losing out here as I really thought the details would make more sense. And it seems that is the case. I really think he would have been a quality #2 quality SP for the next couple of years with experience and some bulldog edge to him. Maybe he just wouldn't have come no matter what unless the annual was considerably higher. And we may never know. But this one stinks a little bit.

Mike, a very smart post. And I wouldn't disagree at the heart of it. BUT...and At times there IS a BUT...what if Cruz is another Papi and performs just as well in 2020 as he did this year, and has done for years, is be really gone? Odorizzi has stated he'd like to sign an extension. I really don't have a clue what terms that may include as I type this, but if he pitches just as well in 2020 as 2019, or even improves as he's just at that precise point in his career where talent and knowledge meet, do you want him to walk? Rosario is a bit different, no matter how much I love him and still feel he hasn't reached full potential yet, because there are a few guys getting close who could make him replaceable. Every season is unique unto itself, and that includes both roster and payroll. But to automatically assume a certain amount of payroll will be off the books is not salient. A team has to live season to season, BUT...and there is that BUT again...sometimes a team has to consider the long play as well. I am NOT saying the Twins shouldn't spend! I hope they do and expect they will, though I am not certain who, how much, and is it all $ or prospects. And I promise you when they do, I will dance a happy and hopeful Snoopy dance! If I can figure out how to do so, I will attempt to post actual dance here on TD so everyone can laugh at me! I just want whatever they do to be smart and not self-defeating down the line. There are options, cards to be played, and dominos to yet fall. Considering how crazy some contracts and demands are right now, I just don't want a move that sounds good but turns out not to be.

Unless you have the top pick in the draft...on rare occasions maybe the 2nd or 3rd...and there is a Clemons or Strasburg there, you don't draft an ACE. You find arms you like and project and develop them. We are starting to see real changes in the development structure of the Twins system that could pay off over the next couple of years. Debate all you will, but Berrios has that kind of potential still at 26yo. Gtaterol, with any kind of decent 3rd pitch and a little time and nurturing could be that type. Balazovic has a lot of steam. Duran maybe? But the Twins are in a unique and somewhat awkward position right now. They have the $ to make a move that helps this team for at least a couple of years. But the market has shifted again and the terms have escalated beyond what I think anyone anywhere expected. Do they take a shot here and overpay and figure out payroll 3 and 4 years from now when they get there? Do they try to front load a deal for greater flexibility down the road? That's what I'd be trying to do. Or are they better off deepening the pen, add at least a decent if not good bat to replace Cron and deepen the lineup as well as add at least one decent solid rotation piece and in lue of some expensive rotation piece? I don't know which way is smarter. You can enhance the club and it's chances either way. But just saying "go get an ACE no matter what" isn't an accurate wish.

Kind of why I like the idea of a bounce back by Shaw vs a traditional 1B. Now, the Donaldson idea isn't a bad one, but i just don't see it happening.

Healthy, the FO convinced he is healthy, I'm still in on Cron. Secondary option, think I like a bounceback by Shaw over Smoak or Moreland.

One thing I really like about this list is there is a real chance as many as 9 of the listed 15 could see MLB before 2020 is done. Now, we have a deep and talented team, so I'm not saying it's going to happen. Lewis and Balazovic may be long shots, but not extreme long shots. Of course, if they would only make token appearances, then maybe keeping them off the 40 man until later might be prudent.

Agreeing with Parker and Brian. Astudillo got off to a good start before his oblique injury. After he came back, he was a little slow out of the gate and then seemed to start getting hot before getting dinged again. He just needs a little more patience and recognition. Superior contact with decent power is kinda special. As long as the contact...or in some cases missed contact...isn't balls near the dirt and a foot outside. As long as he just sticks to a plan and a certain zone, even a large zone, and remain in that box he is a solid hitter. His defense will never be anything special. But he's decent wherever you put him. He can be a very valuable part of the roster.

And you bring up an interesting point I have mentioned before. I don't believe his offseason regiment is an issue. And I have absolutely no clue what his in-season routine is. But for such a highly conditioned young athlete, he seems to have a late season fade each season after looking so dominant previously. I'm wondering if he is working too hard during the season and should back off to maintain endurance and energy.

Assuming we flat miss out in FA, I'm open to Price if he is healthy. But I need enough $ eaten to make his annual value to be $25M or less. Boston gets nothing in our top 10 prospect list. They probably get 1 in the next 10 and a flier. As detailed by others here, healthy, he has performed well recently. It's the healthy and stay healthy part that is key to the deal working.

Right now, this moment, I don't buy it. Would be one of the only moves made that would make sense to move Sano this young to 1B. Also keeps the offense extremely potent. If done, would signal they would look to the trade market for SP, maybe an additional flier, and focus on a pen addition or two and just avoid some of the crazy numbers and years we've seen thus far.

Maybe there is a reason Smith debuted so late, but 28yo and throws around 91-92MPH? Hard pass! Nice write up about Alcantara a few weeks ago. I admit I'm interested due to youth and velocity and would like to see what Johnson could do with him. But any Rosario conversation is an immediate stop if I'm the Marlins. And I LOVE Rosario! But if I'm a cheap, 105 loss team in re-build mode, why on earth would I want a veteran player with 2yrs control and costing me almost $9M next season? I'm looking for 1 of Kirilloff or Larnach, 1 of Balazovic, Duran or Enlow, and a Gordon or Blankenhorn "throw in". Alcantara has velocity, is young and controllable, why would I settle for less? Is that too much to give up? Just how much potential does the FO and Johnson see in Alcantara?

Nick, I love the way you are thinking here. But maybe not exactly the way you were thinking. Via FA or trade, I have no doubt another arm will be added to the rotation to compete with Berrios and Odorizzi. And I'm NOT going to get in to that because there are about 6 other threads that deal with it and NOT what we are talking about here. Unless the budget gets blown up a bit by a BP signing or two...which I'm OK with...i am fully in favor of adding a flier/bounce back rotation option. But unless $ amounts continue to go nuts, I see more than a handful of guys out there that may be available for anywhere from $5-8M who are as good and better than your list here. (I get you are targeting cheap fliers who could surprise). But I look at your list as being a couple of guys with high ceiling bullpen pieces. Moore and Smyly intrigue me the most, being LH. After so much injury and disappointment, isn't it the right time for either, or both, to consider a move to the pen? More appearances but limited IP, 1 or 2 on most days, and just throw their best stuff. This could/should be the perfect opportunity for these guys to re-invent themselves for their career.

Agreed. I like Dobnak's potential quite a bit. I think he has decent stuff, the right frame, decent velocity, etc. I think his rise last season should not be discounted. He appears determined, unflappable and has the sort of "it" intelligence factor. All good things! How good could he be? Let's check back in a season or two shall we. I like this kid a lot. But I also like Thorpe an awful lot too. I think some people discount him because he isn't 21-22yo old. But he missed two full seasons and has been pushed pretty aggressively since his return. And he's done very well. While his ML numbers for 2019 don't look all that great, there were innings and moments when you could see the potential. I think he is a legitimate ML SP with a floor of quality RP who could be Rogers-like, potentially. And in no way should we dismiss Smeltzer at this point. We saw flashes and potential of a bulldog, smart pitcher last season. But let's be real. If he can be nurtured a bit and keep his IP under control, Graterol is a HIGH END talent who could potentially explode over the next year or two. ALL of these guys have a chance to make real contributions in 2020 as the 5th SP, temp 4th SP while waiting for Pineda, and out of the pen. (There are a few others who could make their presence known before 2020 is over as well). And with experience, talent, coaching and the right opportunity, we will be able to approach 2021 with a couple of these guys penciled in to key roles. But this is a HIGH quality team with real potential. I don't knkw who the FO is going to bring on board to add to the top of the rotation, or whether it will be via FA or trade. I fully believe in the smarts of our FO to bring in a quality arm to add to the mix...even if it isn't exactly who may have been hoped for. But regardless, when you look at some of the arms available, there are a number of guys out there who could be brought in on a 1yr or 1+1 deal that still offer up experience and potential where you deepen your options and potential. As I stated elsewhere, there is and will be opportunity for these young guys. But get that one arm you really think can help, and then sign another whether you want to call it a flier or bounce back.

You may have hit on something, Ted. Perhaps the Twins needed to come out of the gates with guns blazing and hit Wheeler hard with 5yrs and $20+M per and just overwhelm him. Maybe their "reported" $100M and 5yrs WAS the first offer on the table. Do we know it wasn't? We already know he turned down more from the Dirty Sox and "reports" state the Twins weren't even in his final 4-5, for whatever reason. Would offering more in a counter offer even mattered? Some look at the last 2 offseasons and cry collusion. I see market correction, analytics, and lesser talent availability except for the top end who still got paid. I see a swing back, part of normal corrections we tend to see, and a deeper market of available talent. Have the Twins been slow to react, misjudging what was going to take place? Or have they maybe been prudent and intelligent with various FA and trade options still available? We may never know the answer. But there is time yet. And when the dust settles and the smoke clears, we may find out that the moves yet to be made by our FO will be well calculated, productive, and lead to another Central victory and a shot at the prize.

Not disagreeing with your premise of getting better. This is a good team, but with room to improve. But I do disagree with the root of your analysis. Berrios absolutely has room to grow and develop further. We have all seen the talent and potential. Odorizzi didn't pitch poorly and is pretty darn good. Dobnak was there because Pineda, pitching borderline outstanding, was not available. Gibson was a mess and wasn't really a factor. The Yankees had much more experience in such a setting. I don't think that should be dismissed. And while the Yankees endured quite a few injuries in 2019, they were relatively sound to close out the second half. Meanwhile, injuries and rust from injuries, plus the Pineda suspension, had an impact on the Twins, IMO. The Yankees were and are a good ballclub. And the Twins need to continue to grow, develop and improve themselves. No debate there. I believe they can and will. But various circumstances at the end of last year doesn't dim my opinion or perspective because a potential #5 SP with potential was thrust in to an unfair position.

Between the 5th spot, filling in for Pineda, double headers, rest periods and hopefully LIMITED IR stints, I am hoping that by this time next year we feel we legitimately have TWO of these talented young guys penciled in to the 2021 rotation.

Very excited and pleased to have him back! To me, he maybe as important as Odorizzi being back. And yes, I mean that. He has had a nice, solid career with some outstanding runs, including going to an All Star game, FWIW, but injuries have curtailed his career somewhat. Healthy, he has some solid stuff and quality results. We saw that in 2019. He is at that perfect time of age and experience, with good stuff, that his next couple of seasons could be the best part of his career. The same might be said of Odorizzi, for that matter. I thought I had heard somewhere that with his knee fully sound, something that wasn't the case until January sometime last year, that he was getting in some good off season work. I hope that is true. In no way do I expect him to be Sveldt Mike next season, but just a little lighter, just a little better shape, could go a long way.

The merits of who/what Bumgarner is NOW and what he MAY BE have been debated. And to be honest, I am torn. There just as many positives in regard to numbers and results as positives. Big game, postseason experience tends to tip the scales his direction for me, along with general belief you can count in him for 30 GS and 180-200 IP. I have no illusions he is a #1 SP any longer. I believe he is as good as, and probably better than Odorizzi now, and for the next couple of years. (NOT a shot of Oddo by any means!) I firmly believe, if healthy and playing for a quality team, he will be an over priced but solid #3 type option for a couple more years. Contract $ or not, these are valuable and important factors to consider. I get trying to get the best deal you can. But if he really doesn't feel like he wants to be here, and will only be "happy" doing so with a 6yr deal for over $20M, I find myself souring very quickly. It's one thing to over pay and another to just get nuts. Ryu is very good when available. His contract would be shorter and much easier to swallow. My hope would be Johnson and Baldelli could nurture him much like they did with the rest of the staff in 2019 to make him available for 28 GS. I'm leaning his way now. I could buy in on Keuchel if it's a 3yr deal. I understand arguments about being an innings eater and control pitcher and what happens if that control suddenly slips. I understand the Twins infield isn't airtight defensively. My counters would be he certainly hasn't lost control yet and IMO, our defense isn't really all that bad, and has the potential to definitely get better in 2020 from normal progression that I expect from Sano, Polanco and Arraez.

Of the 3 options, I vote for #1. That being said, I'd like to replace Bailey with about 3 or 4 others I think. Just don't know he's the best cheap/bounce back option. How about Shaw at 1B and keep Sano at 3B? Greater continuity, a good 1B, and Shaw can still bring value by playin 3 positions if/when Raley/Rooker/Kirilloff are ready to take over 1B.

Just some overall thoughts on the topic at hand. I want the Twins to move the needle. They are very good, but there is room to get better. I think you would clearly find the Twins themselves feeling the same way. Now, in addition to just getting better, there really is one primary, initial goal; reaching the post season. You can't win squat unless you get their first. Period. I would love the Twins to acquire a true ACE pitcher. Not going to argue the value of the 2 FA available or the viability to actually join the Twins, other than to state the obvious that there never really are too many of these guys around. And there sure isn't anyone out there, to my knowledge, with a FOR SALE sign in the window offering up said ACE type pitcher. But the team can, should, will improve themselves via FA or trade on the mound. I don't have any illusions that Bumgarner will suddenly return to his previous form. However, a new staff and new opportunity may indeed see some sort of up tick. But if he could join Berrios, Odorizzi and Pineda creating a quality and deep rotation of #2-3's, I would be very happy with that. Perhaps Bumgarner is not that guy. Perhaps it's someone they need to trade for. I think it's a bit misguided to go shopping and ordering up an All Star #1 ACE SP. It just doesn't work that way. But you can still get deeper, stronger and better. I just hope they pick the right guy, whoever he may be.

FWIW, on the last Gleeman and the Geek, Aaron stated he had heard rumors that the Twins may be higher on Ryu than Bumgarner. He was clear there was nothing definitive however. Just thought I'd toss it out there.