DocBauer

Soon as my son gets home from the gym, I think I'm giving him my debit card to go buy a 6 pack. That way I can finish cooking supper, dance and celebrate, read, post and fantasize the rest of the night.

Passing Tom a beer and a towel.

Pretty much what I've been thinking. Wondered about swapping Donaldson and Cruz. Not sure it matters. Practically illegal!

ECSTATIC...but not overly surprised. The way this was dragging on, frustrating or not, told me our offer was legit and we were in on him seriously. Couple quick points: 1] Shouldn't have to say it, but WOW, what an offense! 2] Infield defense is improved, at least a little. And that's not a knock on Sano who I think has been banged on a bit too much. But Donaldson is flat out better and should help make Polanco's life just a little bit easier. 3] Team game. More offense, better defensively at even one spot, all helps the pitchers. 4] This sets a precedent not only to fans, and the rest of the league, (including future FA), but to the CURRENT TWINS on roster. Don't underestimate that. 5] Sano is going to be fine, if not good at 1B. Now, he won't be a polished product immediately, but he is a big target with reach, he charges balls well, he goes after pop ups well, and his hands aren't the problem, it's always been about lateral range. Lateral range won't be as big of an issue at 1B as it was at 3B. Guy was a SS when signed and moved to 3B. He's dealt with smashes, hard grounders, rollers all his life. Don't tell me he can't handle some scoops in the dirt. Again, not a finished product immediately, but he's going to be fine. Plus, large man, titanium plate in leg, 1B is probably easier on his body. I am so pumped right now I may have to pop the top on a few to celebrate!!

You can't not sign an extension because he "might" get hurt. That would be true for anyone. Unless his demands are just nuts...and we have no idea what he and his agent are thinking...you absolutely put together something fair and get it done. I'd really like to see 5yrs. These kind of deals work for both sides. The team gets a but of a discount, but the player has guaranteed money just in case. Win win. If he wants to bet on himself and a huge return on the open market in a few years, that's on him and not much you can do about it. I think it gets done.

Howie, I am a big fan and believer in Thorpe. The kid was awesome initially before his surgery and then missed season due to mono. IIRC, he was actually rated top 100 or just outside of it initially. Since ha E has come back, he's performed very well at the milb level and been promoted rather aggressively. Despite his final numbers, if you watched Thorpe last year...and I mean that in a general sense, not just you...you saw what he can do and what he might become. I think he has a real shot to be a mid rotation SP. I just don't want to trust that right out of the gate. Same could be said for Graterol, out of the gate, but that is a different discussion. FWIW, off topic somewhat, if the rotation just doesn't work out, I think Thorpe is very Rogers-like as a bullpen piece. I'm also hoping for a trade for another rotation addition. And I'm not talking about some top of the rotation #1 SP addition. That would have happened weeks ago or at the next trade deadline. But unless the FO, smarter than me by a long shot, just has so much belief in the kids on hand and Bailey, they absolutely have to make a move for another quality arm before the season begins. Ray, Gray, name someone. Who is another Odorizzi addition? Just can't start next season, IMO, with what is on hand while playing the waiting game.

What transpired with regard to the pen can't and shouldn't be dismissed. Like many, I was up in arms, no pun intended, at Parker being the only addition last year. But what they held things together for a time, and then the pen really took off. Made Johnson and the FO look a whole lot smarter than the rest of us for sure. And there are additional arms in reserve that could make their mark before 2020 is over. I kind of laugh, when you reflect on the results, because the Twins don't have NAME arms in their pen. But you aren't a NAME until you get a chance to go out and earn it. But are they that smart, can they get that lucky with the rotation as it sits now? Because honestly, right now, we're short there.

I am going to disagree on Polanco not improving at SS. I have no illusions he is going to develop in to some Gold Glove caliber SS. But the overall athleticism is there to improve. Further, his new throwing motion seemed to pay dividends and he should be more and more comfortable with it. My biggest issue with Polanco, from what MY EYES saw, was silly boots when he seemed to be in position but just didn't secure the ball. That's the kind of thing that can improve with religion and experience. I fully appreciate the work you have done here and all the numbers regarding Arraez's various defensive numbers. But to me, we are still talking about a rookie, and a rookie being asked to play various positions. 2B has always been his primary position. I am all about positional flexibility, and his flexibility last year helped a lot even reflecting on the ratings, but being allowed to concentrate at 2B should show a marked improvement on his 2020 defense.

The double blind arbitration process has both sides already very close. The FO has shown they are intent to extend what is already on hand. The fact it hasn't been everyone all at once doesn't concern me. My guess? Berrios is signed to a nice extension before he reports that both sides like. I feel there is a 50-50 chance Odorizzi is extended as well. If you look at the FA SP that signed, his current QO of nearly $18M is not out of line at all. And he wants to stay. The Twins want him and need him, it seems to me. I'm guessing Buxton is extended next off season. What is so damn frustrating is the Donaldson situation! You don't want to bid against yourself, but unless the FO is convinced their offer is quite a bit better than Atlanta, I think they should bump themselves a bit and force Donaldson's hand one way or another. We heard rumors of Cave for...sorry but I can't remember the guy's name now. If that was for real, then do it. If not, bite the bullet and move 2 of the top 5-20 with another decent prospect or two and get SOMEONE they like to add to the rotation. I love Pineda and Hill could be huge the second half. But this rotation still needs at least one more decent to good arm. Love most of the team as is.

Personally, nothing is dampening my enthusiasm. I mean, real Twins baseball is a month away! All the world is better when it's baseball season! I love the offense, minus only Cron, if you really look at. Sure there could be some regression, but I also think we haven't seen the best of some guys, notably Sano and Buxton. I really like the pen, so much better than how last season began, and depth to continue to maintain and improve. I feel Berrios has another level, and I'm actually excited about some of the kids already "here" and a couple more that could make an appearance before the year is over. I am NOT excited about still needing one more bat and not knowing who it's going to be or where it's going to come from. Holding out hope for Donaldson...I'm starting to think we have at least a shot of making that happen...but I'm getting really tired of this waiting game. I am NOT excited about the rotation to begin the season. IMO, the Hill move is like a mid season acquisition that could prove big. But only Bailey still has me bummed and burning. A month away and we still need another good, decent, solid arm if not a really good one. The FO can't be that sold on the kids can they? But I remain hopeful and excited. Cold, rainy, dreary day here in Omaha, but spring and ST are on my mind.

I tend to be a very optimistic person/fan, but I've had a real struggle with this signing. There we guys I liked a lot more who had much better results more recently. Grudgingly, I went back and reflected on career numbers and honestly, I had basically forgotten there was a stretch a few years ago when he was actually really good. (As referenced in the OP). And then I see a bounce back season last year, plus a change in pitch usage, and suddenly I'm a little more hopeful that health and tweaks actually has Bailey back to being a solid contributor again. But to show how smart I am, a couple of the younger, more talented guys I wanted the Twins to sign are Wood and Walker. As of this moment, I believe BOTH are still available and just looking for work/opportunity.

Just reflecting after reading every post and opinion over the past couple of days. So much I like and agree with and thoughts I understand and empathize with, well thought out, even if I don't fully agree. (Indiana and others stole some of my thoughts, but here goes). 1] I think this whole "impact pitching" comment is understandable in context when first uttered, but bas turned in to one filled with hyperbole and discontent intertrpation. Which makes sense. There have already been comments as to wishing that comment had never been said, or had been phrased differently. I really liked how Indiana referenced pitchING vs pitchER. And that may be the biggest rub this off season. The truth is, when the season ended, Odorizzi and Pineda, amongst others, were no longer members of the Twins. Was "impact pitching" a reflection of knowing ahead of time they would be gone, or some hyperbolic comment in reference to adding a special SOMEONE? I honestly don't know. But I know the adding, or re-adding of Odorizzi and Pineda ARE important moves. How many 80-90 win teams would just love to add those guys to their rotation? Just because they were with us last season shouldn't diminish their re-up for 2020. To a lesser degree, we could say the same things about Romo and Clippard. 2] I am very, very disappointed we didn't land Wheeler or Bumgarner. One has the potential to still raise his game. The other is probably past his prime, (despite their similar age), but would have been an experienced competitor to challenge Odorizzi for our 2nd best SP. I am "pissed off" that both of these guys had literally no intention of signing with the Twins, or most anybody else, unless they fit a certain impossible parameter. Wheeler wanted to stay east coast and told Chicago thanks but no thanks to more money. I suppose if the Twins went $140M he MIGHT have told his fiance she would just have to deal. But are we being realistic in that kind of scenario? Or are we just frustrated and disappointed and want to vent? I've heard jokes about paying enough $ for Bumgarner to have a ranch in Minnesota for his horses if we just offered enough $. Funny. But again, can we be real? The guy made his own deal because it's what he wanted and he left millions on the table as a result. No insult to Minnesota or anyone else, just a fact. Am I disappointed? Hell yes I am! Do I think I was "lied to" by the FO? In what possible way? Do you believe the Twins should have signed Ryu or Kuechel? Great, tell me why. I might even agree with you! (I was out on Ryu but interested in Kuechel). But whether you like ownership or not, believe they are cheap or not, show me a single report on either SP that was turned down by a better offer? The FO simply didn't believe either was a fit, at least for the terms being tossed around. Argue with me, debate with me, convince me Ryu is worth what he got. You really think an aging, injury prone SP is worth 4yrs and $20M per? Or are you just wanting so bad for something to happen and offer a different tool of optimism? If I sound angry or combative...I'm not. I'm disappointed in some things that have happened, and not happened, this off season. But I like to think I can still look at the devil in the details and at least understand what has happened and was has not happened. But i can still say "damnit" without blame and still remain hopeful. I absolutely agree you can grade this off season without waiting for 2020 to be complete. You might prove to have been in absolute error, but you can grade it at this point if you want to. I have no idea what signings or trades the Twins may yet make. They may only make a small move or two. They could make at least one major one, if not two. And they may not be done until ST starts. They've made moves each of the past couple of years after ST began. When do I pass out a grade other than "incomplete" and "I'm not satisfied yet even though I'm only disappointed and not angry things haven't gone the way I wanted even though the current moves are smart ones"? I don't know. Maybe it's after the first month of play and I see the product on the field. But right now, I guess I'd say it's when the team heads north to begin the season and I just see what the roster looks like. Then, I won't judge the SEASON, as that would be impossible. But I could at least judge the OFF season at that point.

I think you meant to say they need a 3B OR a 1B. And I agree. I mean, it's pretty glaring we need one or the other, right? Personally, i was hoping for Cron back on a 1yr until someone else was ready. The FO didn't see it that way. Personally, I think they just didn't trust him being 100%. And that's OK. IMO, Sano is servicable at 3B for now, with room at 26yo and slimmed down and seemingly re-dedicated to fitness, etc, to show improvement. But I absolutely GET the idea of moving him to 1B, where I think he would be OK to good. I'm still surprised we didn't make a move sooner on Moose. I also thought bringing in Shaw for a rebound season made an awful lot of sense as well. IDK if Donaldson and his agent are simply trying to play the Twins, or if he has real interest. I do know the Braves haven't blinked, nor have the Nationals, who's offer almost certainly has deferred $ involved. While we can only speculate what each team has truly offered, it would seem the Twins offer is right there with everyone else, and probably higher than any current Atlanta offer. Personally, I don't believe Donaldson is going to get his $110M. It's all part of a power play, and I get that. And I'm 100% OK if the Twins blink just a little and up their offer a bit and tell him "here ya go". There is risk involved if he signs with us, but sometimes you have to take a shot. If he says no, I'm queasy on Bryant. He's a nice player and a great bat. But I say again, is the prospect capital worth the 2yrs in hopes of a later re-sign? Or are we better off with a Frazier or Moreland type 1yr signing and save that prospect capital for a different trade addition, most notably a pitcher? I wish Donaldson would say YES and we can mkve forward, and enjoy the ride and hope against the risk. Otherwise...I'm hesitant on the Bryant trade and leaning toward the shorter, smaller route for now.

I understand the premise completely, but I'm just not sure I follow the logic. The Twins would get him for only 2yrs, possibly only 1yr, which is yet to be determined. (Though I don't think Bryant will win his case). Financially, that $18M is very affordable! Not sure how saving $18M helps the Cubs any this year with all the major FA parts having been signed. I would assume any savings is directed towards next off season along with acquiring a couple nice young prospects. With Sano still able to play 3B on 2020, as good as Bryant is, does moving 3 or 4 top 20 prospects for 2yrs of him move the needle enough vs saving those prospects and using them on a SP move? One if the nice things about Donaldson is there is no prospect cost. Guess I don't have an immediate answer, just questions.

Yeah, I'm with Brian on this one. It would be awesome if everyone is healthy and pitching great and we have an over abundance of pitching. What a nice "problem" to have. But things usually don't work that way. I'm pretty sure he will wind up as a traditional SP. I really hope he comes back healthy and strong. But everyone says June as if it's a sure thing. Originally, he was thought back June/July. Any way you look at it, we're really looking/hoping fir a good half season which can help push us over the top. Much like Pineda last year, his GS and IP can be moderated to keep him strong.

Except for the hours of time spent blogging and the alcohol consumed...mostly on game threads.

Honestly, I don't care if he becomes the next Yelich. I mean, he could. But I would be ecstatic if he just did in 2020 what he did in 2019. I want Max to be Max and just keep doing what he has been doing. I've been trumpeting for some time now what his natural athletic ability and sweet swing could accomplish with a little time and patience. We saw that in 2019. Is there improvement to be made? Yes, I think there is. To what degree I don't know. One of the biggest, and most impactful things that happened to the Twins last season was another injury to Buxton when he seemed to be finally tapping in to his potential. Kepler stepped in and did a great job in CF. But it's not where he should be on a daily basis. And then, unfortunately, he was hurt most of September and just wasn't ready for the post season. I like Jake Cave. I probably like him more than some. And after a poor first half last season, he responded well. He seems to have the tools to be a perfect 4th OF who SHOULD be able to handle CF, but so far, he hasn't done so. And that's disappointing. Seth recently brought up bringing in Kevin Pillar. Way before all the FA off season angst began, I thought about bringing in another OF candidate to compete for that 4th OF spot who could hold down CF and not embarrass himself offensively. Pillar is still out there and should come cheap. I would jump at a chance to sign someone like that to make a fight for the 4th OF spot. Let the best man prove himself. Let Kepler be the outstanding RF he is, with a relief game here and there in CF. Makes the entire roster better. He doesn't have to be anything or anyone other than the talented and athletic player he is. The only thing I really worry about Max is, where do you hit him? He was so productive in the #1 spot, do you move him from there? With or without a proposed Donaldson signing, I could see variations where he hits anywhere from 3-7. And he could be outstanding in any of those spots.

Fully appreciate your perspective but am going to disagree with you. It was reported fairly early the Twins were considering making a move at 3B and moving Sano over, though nobody was named as a target directly. I was surprised by this as I felt they were sticking with Sano at 3B for the next couple of seasons, but I understood the thought process. Wheeler and Bumgarner were their initial 2 targets. For various reasons that don't need to be rehashed again, that absolutely didn't turn out. Plan B then became, "what do we do next?" Frankly, I was a little surprised they didn't look at Moose sooner, but it may have been bad timing. I despise the whole "with health" comment as it always applies to everyone. But "with health" of a decent nature, ie normal bumps-bruises-tweaks-strains, I see Donaldson performing at normal career levels for 2 years. I would project normal slippage his 3rd year but still productive and closer to ML norm numbers. I would expect the 4th year to be average, give or take some. Could there be a major drop off all of a sudden? Yes. But I agree with the premise that power and plate discipline do allow a majority of players to age more gracefully than others. And with being in the AL, a transition to 1B or DH can help prolong health, production and longevity. We talk about Sano moving to DH eventually, and that could be the case. But Donaldson could slide there first to replace Cruz. It's all hypothetical to some degree, but so is every season for every player, to some degree. Missing out on the first 2 important targets hurts. It could very well be the FO miscalculated availability and interest as well as a sudden rise in cost, as I have suggested elsewhere. Or it could be, behind closed doors, they knew both were a tough sell but they were going to at least try. But I don't believe Donaldson is some Hail Mary attempt to salvage the offseason. 3B was seen as an opportunity, even if it was priority 2B. There is never anything wrong with improving your ballclub, including further strengthening an already existent strength.

It's been reported the offer is over $20M per. He made $23M last year. Basic logic would tell me they are offering $21.5/$22/maybe $23 per. Simple math puts them in that $88ish category. I could be off, but not more than about $2M tops. I'd say again, a couple $M more per year is nothing when all us considered, if it gets the job done. I just don't think I'd go beyond $100 no matter his hoped for demands. And unlike Washington, the money wouldn't be deferred, which actually increases the value somewhat.

Tossing out my own observations based on everything reported. 1] Donaldson made $23M last year. The Twins offer is for more than $20M per. Pretty easy to assume that means $88-92M. 2] Safe to assume Atlanta...who has their own budget and value numbers to consider, just like the Twins and everyone else...have a lower offer on the table or this deal would be done. If not, you would think Donaldson and his reps would make their own counter offer to finalize a deal if the numbers are close since Atlanta is supposedly his favorite landing spot. 3] Washington may have indeed made the largest offer, but it's also speculated their offer includes deferred $, as they have done previously, thus making their total offer no more, and possibly less than the Twins when all future value is addressed. While I don't feel strongly Donaldson is coming, I think it is more than fair to believe the Twins are "in it" still and have a very good offer on the table. 4] I think losing out when a $2-3M per year bump could just get this over and done and get his name on the dotted line would be a shame not to happen. I understand budgets and projections and values, but at this point, a couple $M per year over 4 just shouldn't stop the Twins if they and Donaldson are serious. 5] However, I do think saying "the hell with it, here's a bump all the way up to $110M" starts to cross a line from overpaying for what you want and takes "stupid money" to the "ridiculous money" aspect. At some point there is a line in the sand that you just decide it doesn't make enough sense to cross.

While I absolutely don't dismiss him as a real talent, I'd much rather see Larnach traded in any future moves as I just see Kirilloff as a "special" talent. I don't know that I'd dismiss Javier if he had an OK season, but is coming to that time where he needs a full, healthy season to show himself. No Graterol? Because he's so close and debuted already? Surprised you didn't expand to include Lewis and Balazovic. I would think they are right at the top to follow. Maybe hope or guesswork, but I think the FO is really high on Duran. 100% on board for watching Colina. This guy seems to always fly under the radar. And maybe he's destined for the pen, but he keeps producing and flashing. And I've been on the Raley bandwagon for some time now. Kid might do nothing. But I've seen enough that if he can just stay healthy after his ankle injury, he could be a really nice, probably not great, but really nice and versatile ballplayer. Shout out to Chalmers to stay healthy and learn some control.

Hill was not on my list of signings. Period. But I find the negativity of his signing confusing. We have often talked about fliers that should be netted due to potential dividends. This is a $3M flier on a guy who is borderline excellent when he can pitch 14-20 GS and give you a 120 or so IP. He is an "early" mid-season acquisition brought on early. At worst, you tossed away $3M and you move on. End of story. Ready to go, everyone of us would be happy as hell if he'd be good enough to earn some or all of his incentives. He doesn't FIX anything, and I want MORE, but he is a very interesting flier.

I am ALL about what to do next. And I will. But I want to briefly address the elephant in the room. I really like and trust this FO. And I am willing to give a lot of slack to them for all I have seen them do despite my off SEASON frustrations that echo most everyone else's. I very much wanted Wheeler or Bumgarner, though I viewed each differently. I am not happy we didn't get either, but at least I understand why we didn't. To me, IMO, I see why top dollar wasn't spent on Keuchel or Ryu. A different debate and past time, but I get it. Donaldonsm again IMO, was a very smart plan A2. We just can't get those 2 guys, so let's improve the team a different way. I've always felt it was a long shot based on his stated preference. And if the Twins offer was really so poor and low, as some clearly believe, then the Twins would have been out of the running well before this. Simple logic should make that clear. My goodness, how would a low and undervalue offer interest you or help drive your bid up? Just think about it guys. Now, just saying "the hell with it, let's just go all in and meet his demands and sed if he blinks" is also a different discussion. First to meet demands? Would he still sign? Would Atlanta blink and he'd just say I had 2 offers of the same and took this one? Would he back off and just say the offers were close and I decided on Atlanta? Honestly, we'll never know. But the Twins offer is above $20M per year and pushes their payroll to mid $140M with no other additions and zero incentives reached by Hill. But the Twins aren't making a serious offer? A little perspective is all I ask. Now, where I think the FO miscalculated was by mis-judging a higher swing upward in contract value this off-season as well as the allure of a talented team on the upswing with loads of potential coming off a terrific season. In fact, they may have miscalculated enough they may have missed out on other options. So what do they do now? 1] There is a hole in the infield. Unless you address it by trade, Frazier and Moreland seem to be the best options available. Neither are sexy or great, but either presents a viable ML player who can contribute defensively and offensively to basically replace Cron, not stretch your bench, and help at the bottom of the order without simply resorting to auditioning not yet ready for prime time options. 2] In a crazy set of circumstances, the rotation is actually set up, potentially, better from June/July onward, even though some questions remain. From Ray, to Gray, to Archer or Alcantara, etc, they need to dig in to their top 20 prospect talent and add a SP. The depth in the system is such they can do so without blowing up the system or sacrificing tomorrow. But unless they truly feel the rotation talent is about to blow up in a positive way, you just can't let this 100+ team rest on it's laurels from last season. The sacrifice would be worth it. That's it. This is a quality team with a ton of future success in their "window". Make one small move and one big/semi-big move to move the 2020 season forward.

I "liked" the OP and the work that went in to it. And all the facts and statistics have their own place in regard to relevance. MY OPINION is NOT based on ANY statistical evidence whatsoever. And I want to be clear on that. MY OPINION is we haven't seen the best, or at least consistent best, of Berrios to this point. The kid has a tremendous work ethic and desire to compete and be good. I have stated before, with no proof or knowledge to say it is true, I wonder if he works too hard during the season and should back off some to maintain endurance and conditioning later in the season as it wears on. (Nothing wrong with his crazy bard workouts pre-season, IMO). Is it possible he wants to be so good, so bad, that he hits a lull, maybe facing a team the 2nd or 3rd time with less result, and overthinks? Hmmm...maybe. Despite seeing some truly awesome arms that arrive and then flame out, as well as a precious handful that arrive early and just seem to never really decline until late in their career, it has always been my opinion/observation over the years that an ACE caliber pitcher...however you want to define them, we seem to know it when we see them...comes when talent meets experience. Just tossing out a few names without them having any bearing on Berrios himself, I recall Randy Johnson tantalizing but not hitting his stride until later, or the often mentioned Greinke having various issues before truly finding himself after a few years. Didn't someone just reference Cole hitting his stride after 26yo? (Too tired and lazy to quote, lol). The whole point is, the talent and ethic is there, charts or no charts. Experience and talent should/could just be about ready to coalesce in to a FULL SEASON version of the Berrios we have already seen. And I want that guy to not only emerge, but to be kept around.

No disagreement, just a couple comments on the lineups. 1] Even without Donaldson, I think we all sort of assume SOMEONE will be playing 1B on a regular basis so Marwin doesn't have to. Whoever that turns out to be, I'd be wagering his BO spot would be a notch or two higher and bump Buxton down. 2] Despite being a big Rosario fan,him find myself wondering about Kepler sliding down to that 4 hole and Eddie then sitting at 6. Kepler seems to have as much power, finally, and is a more disciplined hitter. Or does that make him even better for the 6 spot?